Calm before the storm

A Seinfeld-ian post about nothing, as pollsters hold their fire ahead of tonight’s budget.

There seems to be a hardening view that Scott Morrison will take advantage of what he hopes will be a positive response to tonight’s budget by calling the election later this week, for either May 11 or May 18. Whenever the election may be called, its proximity makes this an awkward time for us to go a week without new poll results. Newspoll is set for a highly unusual four-week gap, having held off last week due to the New South Wales election and this week due to the budget, while Essential Research is in an off week in its fortnightly cycle. The dam is set to burst next week, with Ipsos joining the two aforementioned with post-budget poll results.

For now, all I can do for you in the way of poll news is to relate what James Campbell of the Herald Sun offered on Liberal internal polling last Thursday: that Pauline Hanson scores net approval ratings of minus 62% and minus 63% in the Melbourne seats of Deakin and Chisholm – and, incidentally, that Peter Dutton has been known to record minus 50% in Melbourne. Beyond that, there is one item of important preselection news to relate, in that the New South Wales Liberals are set to endorse child psychologist Fiona Martin as their successor to the retiring Craig Laundy in Reid. The Australian reports Martin has been chosen ahead of Tanveer Ahmed, a psychiatrist, and Scott Yung, candidate for Kogarah at last week’s state election.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

2,286 comments on “Calm before the storm”

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  1. ‘Diogenes says:
    Thursday, April 4, 2019 at 4:40 pm

    I see Penny Wong at the shops and the local burger joint quite often. Never had the courage to say hello though.’

    Ms Wong is a nice person. So go ahead.

  2. “Just been catching up on today’s question time and the woes of Environment Minister Melissa Price this week. What a train wreck. Corruption, incompetence, arrogance, stupidity. What an embarrassment for the government on the eve of an election campaign.”

    yes, she’s a special sort of stupid. It is a pity parliament and – presumably – her ministerial career are over, because labor and the greens could have had fun shooting fish in a barrel with her day after day after day.

    I suspect the average IQ of the parliamentary LNP and even cabinet at present would be below 100, with Price and others dragging that number south. Price in not alone in being too dumb to realise she is stupid, but she does let it show a bit more than some others and tries to mask it with bluster and agro. Her governance and readiness to do favours for mates suggests she’s yet another LNP member who has no concept of right and wrong – she doesn’t even try to hide impropriety. What a fucked culture that organisation must have. As I’ve said before – 30 years of the Howard faction working to attract sociopaths and arseholes and purge the party of liberals is really paying off for them.

  3. Boerwar
    says:
    Thursday, April 4, 2019 at 5:02 pm
    ‘Diogenes says:
    Thursday, April 4, 2019 at 4:40 pm
    I see Penny Wong at the shops and the local burger joint quite often. Never had the courage to say hello though.’
    Ms Wong is a nice person. So go ahead.
    _____________________________
    Nah leave her alone. There was a couple once who arrived at a very posh restaurant once who discovered that the only other diners were the Rolling Stones and their wives. They debated going over and saying something. Eventually the couple decided to leave the Stones be. When they were leaving and it was time to pay the bill they were informed that the Stones had paid it for them. For leaving them alone.

  4. but the Australian population let out a great big yawn

    The Coalition has improved from $4.85 to $4.20 on Sportsbet since budget night.

    …and worsened on Betfair from $5.40 to $5.60 at the same time. Go figure.

  5. Ch 10 lead item is closure of Huggies nappy factory (Kimberley Clark) in Sydney – sympathetic coverage of employees whose whole career was here. Item included comments from Morrison (wtte) “plenty of jobs elsewhere”.

  6. citizen @ #1906 Thursday, April 4th, 2019 – 4:12 pm

    Ch 10 lead item is closure of Huggies nappy factory (Kimberley Clark) in Sydney – sympathetic coverage of employees whose whole career was here. Item included comments from Morrison (wtte) “plenty of jobs elsewhere”.

    That’s not a bad line. He should deliver it to the coal industry. Shorten (and everybody else) should, too.

  7. “”The Coalition has improved from $4.85 to $4.20 on Sportsbet since budget night.

    …and worsened on Betfair from $5.40 to $5.60 at the same time. Go figure.””
    Go to the Liberal Twitter account and read the comments, the baseball bats are being taken up!.

  8. It’s true that in student politics, where practitioners subsist on a rich diet of reality-free political theory and too many standing orders, things can often get out of hand.

    Guilty, your honour.

    😀

  9. Eagerly awaiting Bill’s speech – they are usually very well written and modulated, and try to connect with the audience rather than speaking down to it,

  10. a r @ #1907 Thursday, April 4th, 2019 – 4:15 pm

    citizen @ #1906 Thursday, April 4th, 2019 – 4:12 pm

    Ch 10 lead item is closure of Huggies nappy factory (Kimberley Clark) in Sydney – sympathetic coverage of employees whose whole career was here. Item included comments from Morrison (wtte) “plenty of jobs elsewhere”.

    That’s not a bad line. He should deliver it to the coal industry. Shorten (and everybody else) should, too.

    If that’s all Morrison said it’s not so good. Positively dripping with empathy. I remember after the Masters stores closed running into a former employee at another retail outlet. She didn’t recognize me of course, but it only took minutes for the tears and anger to emerge when I ignorantly mentioned it. It is very stressful when you lose an “unskilled” job.

  11. Interesting seeing the odds for Minister Melissa Price in the seat of Durack (WA).

    She has a comfortable buffer and more than likely will be returned.

    I have no doubt that anyone who as watched her performances in The House and especially in question time could possibly vote for her in this election.

    But i guess the good nooze will be if she is returned as a Shadow Minister. It will make for plenty of laughs.

  12. Indeed Jen,

    For all of the criticisms, fair or unfair, that can be made of Shorten, he has made a habit of knocking his budget replies out of the park. He has fairly been accused of being not much of a speaker in a formal setting, but for some reason that hasn’t applied to these.

  13. Andy Murray @ #1911 Thursday, April 4th, 2019 – 5:35 pm

    It’s true that in student politics, where practitioners subsist on a rich diet of reality-free political theory and too many standing orders, things can often get out of hand.

    Guilty, you honour.

    😀

    Yeah, but you’ll get better (eventually). The ones that never do are heavily concentrated in fringe groups like the LNP – A (Anthony John Abbott) to Z (Zdenko Matthew “Zed” Seselja), via various inbred Downers. Sucks to be Michael at present.

  14. Costello is still very active in the Victorian Division of the Liberal Party, which organisation is racked by terminal cancer

    There are those Costello seeks to see exit the parliament and for their influence within the Division to wane accordingly

    I’ll leave the speculation as to who they are to others

  15. “”yeah yeah… but will he backflip on the newstart review and announce an immediate lift if elected ??””
    Still unemployed are we Rex?.

  16. 1934pc, the stigma associated with being unemployed is what keeps people trapped in poverty, there is nothing constructive in perpetuating it.

  17. If seats like Durack cannot be held by the LNP then they are in deep, deep, doggie do!……..
    I will be happy if the polls hold to 52-48 or thereabouts, a majority of say 6-8 in the Reps and a dream, control of the Senate. Beyond any of this, real cherry stuff on the top of the cream…………….
    My observation is that parties with large winning majorities are neither good for the electorate nor the party itself. On the one hand, a sense of arrogance ensues and on the other, idle hands (lots of one term backbenchers) make for trouble.
    Let’s face it, even when Labor has “lost an election by a landslide” (Murdoch press crowing) Labor’s vote is somewhere in the region 46/47/48 TPP……………It is unrealistic to expect anything much different on the conservative side of politics.
    The rusted-ons on the LNP side as just as one-eyed as those on Labor and they would sell their own blood to old Nick himself rather than vote Labor.

  18. Puffy
    I hope your liver has self-cleansed since Budget night and that you will be able to enjoy Bill’s Budget to the max?

  19. “Et tu Costello!”

    Didn’t Costello belong to the moderate faction of the Libs that has been virtually exterminated by the religious right? Despite his Baptist background, I did not think Costello was religious.

  20. Ratsak
    “For all of the criticisms, fair or unfair, that can be made of Shorten, he has made a habit of knocking his budget replies out of the park. He has fairly been accused of being not much of a speaker in a formal setting, but for some reason that hasn’t applied to these.”

    Certainly, Bill has no shortage of material to work with tonight.

  21. Socrates @ #1928 Thursday, April 4th, 2019 – 6:06 pm

    “Et tu Costello!”

    Didn’t Costello belong to the moderate faction of the Libs that has been virtually exterminated by the religious right? Despite his Baptist background, I did not think Costello was religious.

    His brother is Tim Costello. I’m pretty sure the family is religious.

  22. The suggestion that Pauline Hanson others cross out all the other candidates and write in “Pauline for PM”, that was a spoof, right?

  23. Good Evening

    I am looking forward to Mr Shorten’s budget reply speech. I am expecting as big an impact as after the 2014 speech.

    Just as the Budget was the LNP campaign launch so it is for Labor.

    Andrew Earlwood

    Good to see you can read election results 🙂

    Those thinking that Berejekilian is going to have a good time didn’t pay attention. In the Lower House there were swings to the Greens.
    The Premier as you pointed out has a one seat majority. The LNP types on twitter when talking about working with the Independents talked about Piper and Greenwhich.

    I agree that if you are the Federal LNP you can take no joy from those NSW election results. It was line ball and the SFF vote is very very bad news for the Nationals. The Climate issue and the being ignored issue is if anything stronger federally.

    The polling has been a steady loss for the LNP that has to win seats and starts behind thanks to redistribution.

    I am hoping for a strong Green vote in the Senate to deny the One Nation types the balance of power. That means I think Central Alliance and Greens could work with Labor. I don’t want Labor to have to negotiate with the LNP because One Nation has taken the Family First role that Rudd had to face.

  24. GG

    Yes but I thought in Uni days Peter and Tim were quite different. Wasn’t Peter involved in a socialist democrat group at first?

  25. “The suggestion that Pauline Hanson others cross out all the other candidates and write in “Pauline for PM”, that was a spoof, right?”

    I hope word does not spread on that. It would be terrible if PHON votes did not count, and their preferences did not flow back to the Liberals.

  26. If the election is called for May 11, I wonder how many Mothers Day lunches on the Sunday after will take on the argy-bargy so often reserved for Christmas Day as various relatives vent their feelings no matter which way the result goes.

    ….goes back to sipping a pleasant preprandial G &T in honour of Christopher’s retirement from the HoR.

  27. Tim Costello seems to be of the social gospel branch of religion.

    When I helped my mother move to the city I encouraged her to go to the local Uniting church, which she now really likes, although she did find settling in a bit challenging. This is after the Lutheran community of the Blue Mountains, who are pretty harsh, and definitely on the right socially.

    She was telling me last week that the local uniting church follows the “San Francisco rite” of the Episcopalian church.

    Itza, I was interested in that you and OH had gone to Shelby Spong’s (?) church in the US. I remember him speaking at the Pitt street Uniting church about a decade ago, which is very close with out local Uniting church. Could not get there – work or kids or something – but the service you when to in the US sounds amazing.

  28. I think the ‘est’ needs to be used in this case.
    _____
    Yes poroti, it certainly calls for the superlative form of the adjective.

  29. Some good news on the cane toad front.

    “At first I was not sure that the swamphen was aware of its prey but it quickly became clear that it knew exactly what to do to avoid the poison glands,” says Greg. “It positioned the toad carefully and held it tight while feeding from the underside. It was a very deliberate approach!”

    In January 2018, Australian Geographic reported members of the crow family exhibiting similar behaviours around cane toads.

    “I had heard that some birds had begun to feed in this way but I had never witnessed it myself,” says Greg. “I spend a lot of time in swamps chasing my passion of carnivorous plants so frequently observe the toads and numerous wading birds, but this behaviour is a first for me.

    Swamphens, like crows, are clever. “These are intelligent birds and have the potential to play an important role in reducing cane toad numbers,” Greg says.

    “This in turn could help support the return of other native species that have declined in numbers due to the invasive cane toad.”

    https://www.australiangeographic.com.au/news/2019/04/swamphens-have-learnt-how-to-make-a-meal-of-cane-toads/

  30. On the toads, some more good news, more than a few ‘natives’ are wising up and striking back yaaay !
    .
    .
    Adaptations of Australian animals to cane toads

    ……………………………..Cane toads are especially poorly suited to avoiding predation by native arthropods, ………. Cane toad metamorphs are particularly vulnerable to attack by meat ants, which have been observed to kill many small toads around waterbodies in tropical northern Australia……………meat ants could inflict serious injuries to metamorph toads within 5 seconds and attacks resulted in mortality in more than 80% of cases
    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Adaptations_of_Australian_animals_to_cane_toads

  31. Pyne’s speech was a cracker! Definite loss for the Parliament, at least in regards to witty, waspy-ish humour, which has a few things going for it.

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