Calm before the storm

A Seinfeld-ian post about nothing, as pollsters hold their fire ahead of tonight’s budget.

There seems to be a hardening view that Scott Morrison will take advantage of what he hopes will be a positive response to tonight’s budget by calling the election later this week, for either May 11 or May 18. Whenever the election may be called, its proximity makes this an awkward time for us to go a week without new poll results. Newspoll is set for a highly unusual four-week gap, having held off last week due to the New South Wales election and this week due to the budget, while Essential Research is in an off week in its fortnightly cycle. The dam is set to burst next week, with Ipsos joining the two aforementioned with post-budget poll results.

For now, all I can do for you in the way of poll news is to relate what James Campbell of the Herald Sun offered on Liberal internal polling last Thursday: that Pauline Hanson scores net approval ratings of minus 62% and minus 63% in the Melbourne seats of Deakin and Chisholm – and, incidentally, that Peter Dutton has been known to record minus 50% in Melbourne. Beyond that, there is one item of important preselection news to relate, in that the New South Wales Liberals are set to endorse child psychologist Fiona Martin as their successor to the retiring Craig Laundy in Reid. The Australian reports Martin has been chosen ahead of Tanveer Ahmed, a psychiatrist, and Scott Yung, candidate for Kogarah at last week’s state election.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

2,286 comments on “Calm before the storm”

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  1. Pica
    I was planing on using ‘truffle dog’ as an impolite metaphor for homosexuals
    Yeah. worst thing said on here for a few days. At least that I’ve seen.

  2. Not sure about the bipartisanship on appointments to Infrastructure Australia. Liberals would be tempted to stack with cronies which isn’t exactly taking the politics out of it.

  3. Nath

    Its good that Pica recognised it. Its so easy to be casually cruel without realising it.

    I don’t think anyone here has done a Dutton on immigration though. So that’s something

  4. Not familiar with the term truffle dog. I thought they got pigs to sniff for truffles. Whatever, just glad to see Pyne gone, Bishop gone and hopefully in six weeks the rest of them.

  5. A Labor govt cannot come soon enough. As it was when Howard’s mob were sent packing, so too it feels like the country has been living in the dark for all these years, and it’s time someone turned on the lights.

  6. The end of Bill’s speech:

    Choose a fucking big television, choose washing machines, cars, compact disc players and electrical tin openers. Choose good health, low cholesterol, and dental insurance. Choose fixed interest mortage repayments. Choose a starter home. Choose your friends. Choose leisurewear and matching luggage. Choose a three-piece suite on hire purchase in a range of fucking fabrics. Choose DIY and wondering who the fuck you are on a Sunday morning. Choose sitting on that couch watching mind-numbing, spirit-crushing game shows, stuffing fucking junk food into your mouth. Choose rotting away at the end of it all, pishing your last in a miserable home, nothing more than an embarrassment to the selfish, fucked up brats you spawned to replace yourself.

  7. Went on a private tour of a truffle ‘farm’ in Tuscany. They had dogs. We had to chase them and get the truffle before they dug it up and ate it. It was funny, they went like greased lightning. For lunch, the owners wife cooked us a truffle dish. One of the truffle dofs who was locked outside went spare at the smell.

    They said they like using dogs as pigs are a bit harder to control and do more damage.

  8. Laura tingle keeps slipping and referring to the ALP as the government.
    If Scomo were smart, he’d get drunk tonight sleep in tomorrow then pull on a suit and go visit the GG. If he waits he give Shorten air.

  9. Interesting the way the ALP are playing the tactics of this.

    Good speech.

    No mention of size of projected surplus?
    No mention of Newstart? 🙁

    However……..this is also a speech made just before an election campaign. Will be a lot saved as “announceables” for during the campaign and i suspect the fiscal detail questions will start to get dealt with by Bowen at the NPC.

    This will keep the Muppets somewhat off balance. ALP know how much the Libs have in “measures decided but not announced”. Libs have no idea of how much the ALP has allocated to that. 🙂

    As a kick off to the campaign a good start i reckon.

  10. Tactically, very astute of the PM to allow Bill Shorten a nationally televised stage for the last act of the Parliament. Not.

  11. Adrian

    He was talking about the already announced tax rises.

    That’s why I highlighted the More Fairness from him.

    That’s Gold for Labor.

  12. My first thought is this cancer stuff will go a long way towards placating all those grumpy retirees …

    If it works, it’s a genius move.

  13. Shorten holds all the cards and Morrison has a fist full of Fwits. Morrison will be wondering if he can get away with delaying the election.

    Newspoll will no doubt completely debunk my read of it.

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