BludgerTrack: 52.9-47.1 to Labor

Movement to the Coalition on the BludgerTrack poll aggregate, after a better-than-usual result in the only new federal poll for the week.

With Newspoll holding its fire over the weekend of the New South Wales state election, the only new federal poll of the week came from Essential Research, which produced a relatively strong result for the Coalition. The BludgerTrack aggregate accordingly moves slightly in their favour, with Labor’s lead down from 53.3-46.7 to 52.9-47.1. This translates into a gain for the Coalition of two on the seat projection, with New South Wales and Victoria providing one apiece.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

1,589 comments on “BludgerTrack: 52.9-47.1 to Labor”

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  1. Both the greens and the government attacking labor on climate action is good for labor I would think.

    The knuckle dragging government from the right and the looney obstructing greens from the left.

    Labor in the sweet spot.

  2. Bandt copping flak on twitter for his comments slagging off Labor’s policy announcement – I hope the Greens keep this up, they are destroying themselves…..

  4. doyley @ #1451 Monday, April 1st, 2019 – 8:06 pm

    Both the greens and the government attacking labor on climate action is good for labor I would think.

    The knuckle dragging government from the right and the looney obstructing greens from the left.

    Labor in the sweet spot.

    but who will they choose to negotiate with in the senate ..?

  5. Andrew_Earlwood @ #1437 Monday, April 1st, 2019 – 7:52 pm

    “An Australian car manufacturing industry is not going to happen again for the simple reason that it will always be cheaper to set one up in an Asian or Indian country. The wages thing will always dictate that outcome.”

    C@t – with love and respect, advances in automation make the wages issue largely irrelevant. Energy costs, steal and aluminium costs, reliable parts suppliers and transportation costs potentially makes an “exactly on time” local production line for a 25 million population base (35 million+ if you include NZ, the pacific and limited exports to the north and east) quite viable. Last I checked Gupta was still talking about setting up an EV production line in Adelaide in the next 2-3 years.

    Other than the Liberals kicking it to the kerb, why was an Australian automobile manufacturing industry thought to be more viable by the global car makers if they moved their plants to Thailand? Wages. We had all those other contingencies, just not wages as low.

  9. Darren McCaffrey
    ‏ @DarrenEuronews

    German’s Deputy Foreign Minister:

    “Brexit is a big shitshow, I say that now very undiplomatically”

    “90%” cabinet “no idea how workers think, live, work and behave”
    Politicians “born with silver spoons in their mouths, who went to private schools” that will not suffer

  10. A number of Western countries have car manufacturing industries.

    The common denominator is ongoing strong government support. Withdraw the support and the industry fails.

    Hello Joe Hockey.

  11. Peter BrentVerified account@mumbletwits
    1h1 hour ago
    Me not a fan of going “the left this and the right that” but …. both the mad left and mad right tend to be, very often, fans is Russia Today.

    And I just about choked on my lunch reading the Sydney Writers Festival program that mum sent me, finding this talk being given, not by Lee Rhiannon, but Tom Switzer!

    We are used to vehemently decrying Putin’s domestic and foreign actions, but have we begun to exaggerate the Russian threat, fuelling hatred, suspicion and sowing misunderstanding? Is it time we re-evaluate our expectation that Russia will behave like other democratic nations or respond constructively to traditional punishments like sanctions?

    https://www.swf.org.au/festivals/festival-2019/is-russia-the-enemy-we-ve-come-to-believe/

  12. Douglas and Milko

    Yes 4WDs are a serious problem for safety too. They have improved the safety of occupants of 4WD vehicles, but not of everyone else they hit. As you say it is the mass, and also the height of the body that is the problem.

    Monash University keep track of real word (as opposed to crash tests) crash risk for all cars sold in Australasia. The small and medium sized 4WDs like CRX, Rav 4s etc are OK. But the large 4WD wagons and Utes like Landcruiser, HiLux, Pajero, Patrol etc are a problem. The “aggressivity” (i.e. risk of casualty to other party in a crash) of large SUVs is significantly higher than most other vehicles. The chance of a death is more than 50% higher if a crash involves one of these vehicles. I have never understood why they are not charged more for 3rd party insurance.
    https://www.monash.edu/muarc/archive/our-publications/reports/muarc318

    Interesting to note that the last report was 2013. Funds dried up for this research once the coalition took office.

  13. All I’m hearing is the Greens and Coalition tag team to slag off Labor’s environment policies.

    Won’t help either much thankfully.

    Well except we’ve seen before how the Greens will willingly side with AGW denialists in the Senate to deny legislative action on abating our GHGEs. It sounds to me as if the Greens are gearing up for the same obstructionist approach should Labor be elected.

    And whatever happened to the Savage Club member’s pledge only weeks ago that the Greens wouldn’t obstruct Labor efforts to address AGW?

  14. Labor in the sweet spot.

    Yep.

    Bandt copping flak on twitter for his comments slagging off Labor’s policy announcement – I hope the Greens keep this up, they are destroying themselves…..

    and yep. They are driving Labor favourable voters away. I was taken aback when my missus point blank refused to give them even a pref in the LC in the recent NSW election. I said to her it might make the difference between a Green and a loon like Leyonhjelm, but she wasn’t having a bar of giving the Greens anything. She’s no where near as engaged as I am but very much her own woman. If people like her who in the past would happily put the Gs 2 are thinking like that they must be pissing off an awful lot of people.

  15. Was in the car listening to a sound bite from our PM.

    Is it just me or does he seem to have a very aggressive voice when you hear him? Is this what turns people off, he doesn’t seem to have a soft voice like other politicians.

  16. The popularity of 4WDs, like the proliferation of McMansions and our poorly designed and built unit blocks is an unfortunate symptom of what Australia has become.

  17. https://www.abc.net.au/news/2019-04-01/2019-hottest-march-on-record-in-australia/10959828

    BOM has just released its monthly weather review and it was officially Australia’s hottest March on record.

    Not only was it the hottest March, but it has also been the hottest start to the year on record. By a lot.

    “It’s come in about 2.2 degrees above the long term for the first quarter of the year,” Dr Trewin said.

    “That’s nearly a degree hotter than the previous hottest first quarter of the year.

  18. Kirky @ #25966 Monday, April 1st, 2019 – 8:20 pm

    Was in the car listening to a sound bite from our PM.

    Is it just me or does he seem to have a very aggressive voice when you hear him? Is this what turns people off, he doesn’t seem to have a soft voice like other politicians.

    He’s fucking terrified. That’s why Tingle referred to the GRASPers as the Opposition. They’re all gibbering wrecks who have nowhere to go after their dodged up “Budget” evaporates into a miasma of dog shit and Gina shards on Thursday. I think most of them just want to be put out of their misery. Particularly FriedJosh.

  19. Adrian
    “The popularity of 4WDs, like the proliferation of McMansions and our poorly designed and built unit blocks is an unfortunate symptom of what Australia has become.”

    Yes it is. It is not just about people enriching themselves. It is bettering themselves by beggaring their neighbours.

  21. I would love to hear Pegasus try to defend The Greens’ spoiler tactics, instead of constantly being visually assaulted with her moronic cut and paste.

  23. Rex Douglas says:
    Monday, April 1, 2019 at 8:08 pm

    …

    but who will they choose to negotiate with in the senate ..?

    As usual it would be with anyone willing to negotiate in good faith.

    From Bandt’s comment it doesn’t appear the Greens fit that criteria at the moment.

  24. Socrates @ #1469 Monday, April 1st, 2019 – 8:29 pm

    Adrian
    “The popularity of 4WDs, like the proliferation of McMansions and our poorly designed and built unit blocks is an unfortunate symptom of what Australia has become.”

    Yes it is. It is not just about people enriching themselves. It is bettering themselves by beggaring their neighbours.

    You can thank John Howard for figuring out how to make barely literate Tradesmen the wealthiest Australians. Over and above the usual cohort of the financially adept Coalition supporters.

  25. Confessions @ #1470 Monday, April 1st, 2019 – 8:30 pm

    PvO apparently had a budget scoop on superannuation for the over 65s.
    https://10daily.com.au/shows/10-news-first/v190401xit/australia-waits-for-earlier-than-normal-budget-20190401

    Although I’m sure I heard something about this on the ABC driving home.

    I thought there was a hue and cry from the Coalition about changes to Superannuation that Labor wanted to make?

    I mean, here we go again. Labor changes to Super-bad; Coalition changes to Super-Good. 🙄

  26. Pegasus @ #1472 Monday, April 1st, 2019 – 8:31 pm

    uComms conducted a survey of 2,1 24 residents across Australia during the night of 12 March 2019 on attitudes to taking immediate and serious action to tackle climate change.

    https://static.wixstatic.com/ugd/da9c49_11ec8b1a48684b9fb0ee0c3a2047e27c.pdf

    Will Labor show strength and commitment to the environment in the senate and negotiate with the Greens or will they cower in fear of another Lib scare campaign and do a deal with them ..?

  27. “Other than the Liberals kicking it to the kerb, why was an Australian automobile manufacturing industry thought to be more viable by the global car makers if they moved their plants to Thailand? Wages. We had all those other contingencies, just not wages as low.”

    Those decisions were made just as the paradigm shifted. An Australian car manufacturing industry isn’t viable under the old paradigm. There is no doubt about that.

  28. “Will the ALP tell us by how much the Global Temperature will be reduced through their efforts?”

    Its not about reducing global temperatures, its about making sure they don’t go up so far as for us and our grandchildren all to be fwarked.

  29. but who will they choose to negotiate with in the senate ..?

    Matt31 already answered that…

    The less Labor have to work with the Greens, the better.

    ie the Greens if and only if they have no better alternative. That’s where the Greens want to be in their pursuit of differentiation by attacking the ALP but trying to hold them hostage. Labor will be hoping they can use that path to passing legislation as little as possible.

  30. UBI is completely unaffordable. Would more than double total expenditures.

    Affordability is not an issue.

    Real resource availability and inflation risk are the issues.

    We are talking about a currency issuer, not a currency user.

    If the federal government paid the equivalent of the Age Pension / Disability Support Pension to every Australian citizen and permanent migrant aged 15 years and over, and cancelled all existing welfare and social security spending, the total federal government spend would increase by well over 50 percent.

    To put that into context, the federal government currently spends $490 billion per year. Total GDP is $1.7 trillion.

    The Australian economy does have significant unused capacity, but not $250 billion per year worth of unused capacity. More like $50 billion worth of unused capacity at the moment. The government could do an extra $50 billion of spending without doing any offsets (tax increases and / or spending cuts) to make that spending non-inflationary. We already have the real productive capacity to absorb that amount of extra spending in a non-inflationary manner. A JG would be essential to targeting the extra spending correctly. Right now about $35 billion would be needed for a JG and the remaining $15 billion would be discretionary spending. In my view the discretionary spending should go towards increasing the social wage – that is, the value of public services and infrastructure that people get to use without paying user fees or co-pays. We should also use some of the extra discretionary spending to increase the Age Pension / DSP / Sickness Benefit.

    To make an extra $250 billion in spending non-inflationary it would be necessary to enact about $200 billion worth of offsets (tax rises and / or spending cuts).

    That would be very unpopular.

    And for a policy that wouldn’t be effective at achieving its stated goals.

    Far better to enact a JG to act as an automatic stabilizer, amend employment law to strengthen workers’ rights, increase the social wage, increase the Age Pension / DSP / Sickness Benefit, convert a portion of average productivity growth to a shorter working day / shorter working week / more weeks of annual leave.

    That would give UBI proponents most of what they want without all of the macroeconomic and political and cultural problems of their idea.

  31. Do Indians have scientific temper?
    The below article discusses about Francis Bacon who was supposed to have invented experiment methodology

    https://theprint-in.cdn.ampproject.org/v/s/theprint.in/opinion/do-indians-have-a-scientific-temper-ancient-texts-reveal-we-did-way-before-the-west/214767/amp/?amp_js_v=a2&amp_gsa=1#referrer=https%3A%2F%2Fwww.google.com&amp_tf=From%20%251%24s&ampshare=https%3A%2F%2Ftheprint.in%2Fopinion%2Fdo-indians-have-a-scientific-temper-ancient-texts-reveal-we-did-way-before-the-west%2F214767%2F

  32. C@t:

    According to the report these are the changes to super contributions by older people that have previously been rejected by the Senate.

    I’m finding that I’m viewing these kinds of decisions by the govt through a lens of them losing the election, and what they want to hang onto in terms of policy differentiation from the Labor govt come June. I just hope they do lose the election, and by a substantial margin.

  33. Pegasus

    Thanks for the article on March weather records. I think we would both agree that the need for action on climate change is desperately urgent.

    In that regards, while I do not like dwelling on the Labor Greens wars, I have to say I was a little disappointed in the Greens announcement towards Labor’s policy launch today. The Labor policy was not perfect, but it was pretty good. Since my comments at lunch time, I have read and confirmed important details, namely that there will be no meeting of Paris by accounting tricks with prior credits, and that heavy emitting industry requirements will be extended. So this is a fairly substantial framework to go forward. We may not get quite to 50% reduction in all areas (e.g. agriculture) but will overshoot in others (e.g. electricity).

    So while the Greens may want to remain independent, and could usefully add amendments like making sure light commercial vehicles are covered under car emission rules, if the Greens do not support this package in an at worst slightly modified form, it would be unforgivable in my view.

  34. Possum Comitatus@Pollytics
    2m2 minutes ago
    We are the only country in the world that treats “The Budget” – a document of dubious value that has never lasted 3 months before being mugged by reality – as a *major* political event. You know why? Because everyone else grew up

    The budget is just a political showpiece. Most of it is leaked to the media days before its actually announcement simply because nobody watches on budget night anyway.

  35. C@tmomma @ #1455 Monday, April 1st, 2019 – 8:09 pm

    Other than the Liberals kicking it to the kerb, why was an Australian automobile manufacturing industry thought to be more viable by the global car makers if they moved their plants to Thailand? Wages. We had all those other contingencies, just not wages as low.

    Proximity to China and India.

    Why did Hyundai set up in Montgomery, Alabama. Lower wages than Seoul?

  36. Good on you Socrates. Sure there’s always room for a bit of compromise at the margins, but we’ve wasted two decades. Labor is proposing real progress that acknowledges the realities of the science and also the realities of what can be achieved in the face of well funded and desperate opposition that has had far too much success in the past two decades.

    People who want to be part of the problem will roll rocks onto their path. People who want to be part of the solution will help them clear the path. The Greens look like they’ve chosen the former. And for that I hold them in contempt.

  37. Teh Budget has been drummed up and promoted by The Rupert and company to use as a tool to further and promote his aims. Also a handy publicity weapon to bash or boost the gov. of the day depending on how obedient they have been.

  39. The Greens look like they’ve chosen the former. And for that I hold them in contempt.

    As I pondered earlier, whatever happened to Julian Burnside’s assurances that the Greens would not block Labor efforts to mitigate our GHGEs?

    That pledge didn’t last long.

  40. I was in the UK on their Budget day some years ago. Following the general rule of thumb of the time that it’s difficult to get a story on the front page of the British tabloids unless it involves either sex or royalty, the main angle most of them took to highlighting was a pay rise – which the tabloid consensus suggested was less than deserved – for Prince Andrew.

  41. Bill Gates says we should tax automation to slow the transition and increase the pay for jobs like carers.

    A UBI doesn’t have to pay an average wage overnight. It can start at any amount. We will see an increase in automation and the benifits should be shared.

  42. poroti:

    That may be so (I have no idea whether it’s true or not), but how on earth to justify the secretive budget lock up, when as I said, most of the budget has already been leaked in the preceding days?

    It’s ridiculous.

  43. Confessions
    Ah the lock up.What better way to get obligations from journos. Write nice and I’ll help your career($) with insider hot gos.

  46. The Budget will be even deader than most budgets are by Friday morning.

    That of course is because the real budget that will actually get implemented will be announced on Thursday night. And everyone knows it.

  48. Confessions
    You are right about budget theatre. And what is the point of a budget lock up when, as we saw with the Hayne RC report this cabinet is not above leaking in a way that mates can enrich themselves by millions of dollars on a half billion dollar plunge on the share market.

    I wonder if we will ever find out who did that. It should be easy but, two months on, still no answer. Another thing to add to the RC into govt corruption list after the change of government.

  49. Scorates,

    Thanks for your post at 8.45 pm about the Greens’ response to the ALP climate change policy. Like you, I would prefer that the ALP went a bit further, but I realise that unless we can build a consensus about positive action on climate change in Australia in the next government, nothing will haven for at least another three years, and this would be a terrible missed opportunity.

    I think there are too many people in Australia who think that the defeat of the Morrison Government at the upcoming Federal election is a given, and these people are now demanding that the ALP support their agenda, right now, and threatening to bring any ALP government who does not support this agenda down.

    I though Simon Holmes a’Court put this very well the other day in response to someone on twitter who was saying “Don’t vote ALP at the next election because they have not pledged to raise Newstart”. SHaC replied that in his mind, the ALP were correct to not assume that they would be automatically catapulted to the treasury benches around mid-May, and that announcing an enquiry into the level of Newstart was actually both good policy, and good politics.

    In the end, if the Coalition are on the treasury benches after the next Federal election, Newstart recipients will be worse off than under an ALP government. I say this with skin in the game. My autistic son (who excellent paediatrician gently tried to tell me son would find it hard to hold down job – paediatrician was mostly right, I was mostly wrong), is now halfway through a Bachelor of Audio Engineering. However, he lives off* Austudy, which is about the same as the Newstart he kept getting cut off from.

    * Of course, he goes no where near living off Austudy. If it was not for his middle class parents, there is no way he could keep doing his degree and keep a roof over his head.

  50. My partner is a national expert in manufacturing- wages are typically between 5-15 percent of the production cost of a product, cars at the lower end. Wages cost were not a problem for the Australian car industry. Many of the cars we see on our roads are from Germany and Japan, where wages are much higher.
    Australia (at the time) was the world’s biggest economy not to have a car industry. We (as in Abbott and Hockey) consciously chose to de-industrialise this nation. Car prices now are at the mercy of international players (with no domestic competition) and the value of the AUD.
    Stupid country.

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