BludgerTrack: 52.9-47.1 to Labor

Movement to the Coalition on the BludgerTrack poll aggregate, after a better-than-usual result in the only new federal poll for the week.

With Newspoll holding its fire over the weekend of the New South Wales state election, the only new federal poll of the week came from Essential Research, which produced a relatively strong result for the Coalition. The BludgerTrack aggregate accordingly moves slightly in their favour, with Labor’s lead down from 53.3-46.7 to 52.9-47.1. This translates into a gain for the Coalition of two on the seat projection, with New South Wales and Victoria providing one apiece.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

1,589 comments on “BludgerTrack: 52.9-47.1 to Labor”

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  1. Question @ #1490 Monday, April 1st, 2019 – 8:03 pm

    Bill Gates says we should tax automation to slow the transition and increase the pay for jobs like carers.

    A UBI doesn’t have to pay an average wage overnight. It can start at any amount. We will see an increase in automation and the benifits should be shared.

    I doesn’t ever have to pay an average wage, but perhaps eventually a minimum wage.
    Alaska has a partial UBI that starts at an early age (2 years?) and is paid to all residents. It is not called a UBI and is paid out of a state investment fund. It is also nowhere near a full UBI, but is enough ‘to make a difference’.
    The idea that a UBI is to “decouple a living income from participation in paid work”, which I would restate as the “from the need for participation”, is attractive too, since decoupling can be partial and gradual.

  2. C@t – that Smart EV also comes as a convertible. The cost starts at $US28K – $32K for the convertible. For that you get a glorified go kart with a range of about 100km.

    This is what I’m talking about. Moreover, “around $20,000” is close to that $15,000 that I reckon Labor should announce as a cash prize.

    This has the potential to be realised within Labor’s first term. And it’s a global game changer. No one else is even imagining building something for under $US30K for another decade.

    https://thedriven.io/2018/09/05/uniti-electric-car/

  3. And what is the point of a budget lock up when, as we saw with the Hayne RC report this cabinet is not above leaking in a way that mates can enrich themselves by millions of dollars on a half billion dollar plunge on the share market.

    I’d completely forgotten about that!

    And that’s the problem when you have a chaotic dysfunctional govt is that they just lurch from one crisis to the next, and the media caravan simply moves with them. We see the same thing in America with Trump. It’s like it’s normalising corruption and incompetence right before our very eyes.

  4. ABC Q&AVerified account@QandA
    12h12 hours ago
    #QandA is live from Sydney tonight with @A_Sinodinos, @AmandaRishworth, @RebeccaHuntley2, John Roskam and Lakshmi Logathassan. 9.35pm on @abctv and #iview

    Rishworth not the strongest of media performers.

  5. Torchbearer
    Damned right. Check out these numbers !
    .
    In 2010, Germany produced more than 5.5 million automobiles; the U.S produced 2.7 million. At the same time, the average auto worker in Germany made $67.14 per hour in salary in benefits; the average one in the U.S. made $33.77 per hour. Yet Germany’s big three car companies—BMW, Daimler DDAIY +0% ( Mercedes-Benz ), and Volkswagen—are very profitable.
    https://www.forbes.com/sites/frederickallen/2011/12/21/germany-builds-twice-as-many-cars-as-the-u-s-while-paying-its-auto-workers-twice-as-much/#17ad7cc66b78

  6. Morrison is using the ABC to promote the budget, rather than Murdoch. Is that because the ABC is assumed to have more credibility than Murdoch media?

    Also, there is not one bit of objective analysis in Probyn’s article.

    Budget to bring tax relief to people earning $37,000–$126,000, as Government brings forward planned cuts

    Exclusive by political editor Andrew Probyn

    https://www.abc.net.au/news/2019-04-01/budget-coalition-government-to-bring-forward-tax-cuts/10960062

  7. Taxing automation is a stupid idea.

    Automation enables productivity to increase, which enables us to provide everyone, including pensioners, with increased purchasing power without it being inflationary.

    Bill Gates doesn’t understand the difference between a currency user and a currency issuer.

    Taxation generates demand for the government’s currency.

    Taxation controls inflation.

    Taxation influences the distribution of income and wealth.

    Taxation influences the behaviours of households and firms.

    Taxation does not collect currency for the government to spend (unless you are talking about a currency user such as a state government or a local government or a Eurozone member).

  8. Qanda has an IPA shill on, John Roskam, failed Liberal candidate and apparently a friend of Bill Shorten from schooldays

  9. L R @9:21
    I saw that in a docco on SBS. It also had the stuff about Nixon exploring the idea with Rumsfeld and Cheney of all people 🙂 Reagan put an end to all that.

    I see it as a useful gradual response to make sure automation doesn’t stratify society. I also like the idea of automation meaning people doing work they like rather than have to.

  10. Gee, what has happened to Andrew Probyn? The way that article is written is confusing, and very unclear – don’t the ABC have sub editors anymore?

  11. If John Roskam has any integrity, he would declare who pays his salary before he sprouts the benefits of coal

  12. Henry:

    When he appeared on Insiders a week or so ago my first thought was that he was a mini-me Chris Kenny!

  13. I am currently looking into my vehicle configuration. Starting to warm to ‘the right tool for the job’ idea as best and probably cheapest. So 1 small get about to ‘get about’ which will be electric when the current getabout drops out. Hire/borrow utes/trailers. Hire 4WD campers for rugged camping. Hire touring cars/SUVs for tent camping and long journeys where 4WD not required.

    As for pricing electric cars. Sure, your average Joe six pack might show shock at the costs of those currently on offer. But the Joe six pack plumber/roofer/carpenter/brickies I know are currently either just back from skiing in Europe, off on the Murray in a speed boat, hooning down tracks on a $10+K mountain bike or packing their fully specced Hilux for a trip to the Simpson leaving the full sized SUV for the missus.

  14. Amanda Rishworth does not inspire me I have to say. Never has.
    Ffs Newstart recipients should be included in all measures to reduce poverty.

  15. Taxing high levels of wealth and income is redistributive and a good thing.

    Taxing automation deters a change that is positive (if managed well). Therefore taxing automation is not a good thing.

    We need to be using predistribution, not just redistribution.

    For example, a 100 percent tax on annual income above 20 times the full time minimum wage, and a 100 percent tax on per person net wealth above 200 times the full time minimum wage.

    This would deter the provision of obscene compensation in the first place. We need to be minimizing pre-tax inequality, not just post-tax inequality.

    Shrinking the financial sector – whose excessive growth has been a leading contributor to growing inequality of wealth and income – is a critical part of minimizing pre-tax inequality.

  16. All the *wrong* people are advocating a rise in the Newstart allowance… Roskham, Sinodinos.

    Labor is only promising a review. Positive, but boring.

    Something’s up.

    Could the Libs be thinking of trying to buy the Dole Bludger vote?

  17. Arthur: ‘We pursue surpluses not in and of themselves but because it gives us flexibility.’

    Oh please! When did this become coalition policy? They’ve been all about surpluses simply for the sake of surpluses.

  18. And suddenly Liberals are talking about ‘essential services’ when they’ve shied away from these terms previously.

  19. “Shit. I’m (relatively speaking) rich and I’d badly at paying $70K for an EV Golf. Or a Tesla Model 3. Etc. Fuck that.

    but put a three pointed Swastika on it…”

    Ratsak, if you are talking about a merc, then you’d be mistaken. Not my cuppa. If I had play money for a car built by a former Axis country, I’d get myself another Fiat X-19 and modernise it.

    I brought one with my first real money over 25 years ago (after admiring the model through my teenage years). what a hoot.

    Fun fact: the X-19 was so light and so underpowered the fiat engineers thought that having a master slave cyclinder for the brakes was redundant – it had as much stopping power as my dragster bicycle. Sure, you could still get a master slave cyclinder, but it was an option, not a standard feature. Those crazy Italians .

    If I had $70K for such a project, I’d put in modern electrics, brembo brakes, swap out the front and back bonnets for aluminium replicas and swap the targa top for a carbon fibre replica. The original engine was straight out of a fiat 128 – reliable and high revving but only 75hp. I’d swap that out for a Ducati Pagani V4 (210hp) with a direct shift 7 speed gear box. Nooice…

  20. Confessions @ #1482 Monday, April 1st, 2019 – 8:43 pm

    C@t:

    According to the report these are the changes to super contributions by older people that have previously been rejected by the Senate.

    I’m finding that I’m viewing these kinds of decisions by the govt through a lens of them losing the election, and what they want to hang onto in terms of policy differentiation from the Labor govt come June. I just hope they do lose the election, and by a substantial margin.

    But are they good changes or just vote-buying? I think the latter. Just like Howard and Costello, changed the Franking Credits rules to benefit the well-off Retirees and buy their loyalty.

    Bloody Nora, Coalition Budgets have more in common with Loyalty Reward systems than good economic management these days!

  21. Rishworth is chasing Scotty down the rabbit hole of regulating social media. Are we China now?

    Tim Watts and Mark McGowan were hot to trot for this brainless idiocy as well.

  22. Well someone has figured out that blogs don’t have the same defamation standards that more traditional media outlets do.

    Been hanging around 8chan’s sewers tonight, nath? Or Dingo Twitter and Gab?

  23. Oh, now I get it. Now that Aussie nutjobs are murdering people, it’s the individuals we should be worried about, not the demographic.

    Thanks so much Arthur Sinodinos, I didn’t get that before.

  24. Big A Adrian
    says:
    Monday, April 1, 2019 at 10:29 pm
    april fools jokes are supposed to only be before midday nath
    _____________________________
    oh. that’s right!

  25. There are at least two vehicles being sold (or having preorders taken) with a price range of 50 – 55, which I think is under the luxury car tax.

    Fed Govt could make these very accessible by giving them a really low FBT formula (you know like the ones the greens increased to discourage petrol use, but going the other way). Could also make them GST free. You could perhaps also require they be rolled over after 2 years at the residual value onto the market.

    Give it a couple of years for 30 – 40k, and better ranges.

  26. Big A Adrian @ #1532 Monday, April 1st, 2019 – 10:29 pm

    april fools jokes are supposed to only be before midday nath

    Give the resident fool the benefit of the doubt Big A. It took him all day to dodge that up! He doesn’t even realise that it is fashionable for the Right to cosy up to Putin these days and it’s actually more of a compliment than a curse. 😆

  27. WeWantPaul @ #1535 Monday, April 1st, 2019 – 7:31 pm

    Rishworth is chasing Scotty down the rabbit hole of regulating social media. Are we China now?

    Tim Watts and Mark McGowan were hot to trot for this brainless idiocy as well.

    Really? It’s a no-brainer that Facebook should just be leaned on to deactivate Facebook Live. Problem solvered.

  28. C@tmomma
    says:
    Been hanging around 8chan’s sewers tonight, nath? Or Dingo Twitter and Gab?
    _________________________
    I understand those are words but their meaning is lost on me. And If I were you I wouldn’t be constantly talking about me being from a sewer as you do. Considering your sewerage that is often on display.

  29. Well someone has figured out that blogs don’t have the same defamation standards that more traditional media outlets do.

    I think you’ll find as a question of law that blogs have EXACTLY 100% completely the exact same standard as traditional media.

    If you aren’t interested in the actual law, but rather the application of the law, defo law only works for the wealthy, or those that can get pro bono lawyers anyway, and it only really works against those with money, or a massive fear of going bankrupt.

  30. Bushfire Bill @ #1536 Monday, April 1st, 2019 – 10:34 pm

    Oh, now I get it. Now that Aussie nutjobs are murdering people, it’s the individuals we should be worried about, not the demographic.

    Thanks so much Arthur Sinodinos, I didn’t get that before.

    Yes, one has to wonder how many ‘individual’ Australian White Supremacists who become mass murderers it will take before the Coalition changes that tune?

  31. Really? It’s a no-brainer that Facebook should just be leaned on to deactivate Facebook Live. Problem solvered.

    It isn’t a no brainer, it is exactly the kind of thing a democracy should have a sound policy grip on, before diving in, or you’ll have things like the PM ringing up and silencing social media exactly the same way he rang up and silenced SBS and the ABC when he didn’t like what they were saying. And that my friend is very very bad. Very very bad.

  32. WeWantPaul @ #1542 Monday, April 1st, 2019 – 10:38 pm

    Well someone has figured out that blogs don’t have the same defamation standards that more traditional media outlets do.

    I think you’ll find as a question of law that blogs have EXACTLY 100% completely the exact same standard as traditional media.

    If you aren’t interested in the actual law, but rather the application of the law, defo law only works for the wealthy, or those that can get pro bono lawyers anyway, and it only really works against those with money, or a massive fear of going bankrupt.

    Abso-bleedin-lutely!

  33. nath @ #1541 Monday, April 1st, 2019 – 10:38 pm

    C@tmomma
    says:
    Been hanging around 8chan’s sewers tonight, nath? Or Dingo Twitter and Gab?
    _________________________
    I understand those are words but their meaning is lost on me. And If I were you I wouldn’t be constantly talking about me being from a sewer as you do. Considering your sewerage that is often on display.

    Lol. After what you just posted at 10.25 the appellation is entirely apt. No attempt by you at giving yourself a degree or two of separation from that act by taking a word and getting all outraged about it is going to work either.

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