BludgerTrack: 52.9-47.1 to Labor

Movement to the Coalition on the BludgerTrack poll aggregate, after a better-than-usual result in the only new federal poll for the week.

With Newspoll holding its fire over the weekend of the New South Wales state election, the only new federal poll of the week came from Essential Research, which produced a relatively strong result for the Coalition. The BludgerTrack aggregate accordingly moves slightly in their favour, with Labor’s lead down from 53.3-46.7 to 52.9-47.1. This translates into a gain for the Coalition of two on the seat projection, with New South Wales and Victoria providing one apiece.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

1,589 comments on “BludgerTrack: 52.9-47.1 to Labor”

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  2. “Of course, I’m talking about mole crickets. The chirpy little fuckers are destroying my lawn – What’s the good oil on their removal? I would like to not have to destroy the local biosphere.”

    You could introduce some kind of biological parasite? I hear there will be quite a few ex Liberal members going to be looking for gainful employment and purpose in a few weeks??

  4. Shit. I’m (relatively speaking) rich and I’d badly at paying $70K for an EV Golf. Or a Tesla Model 3. Etc. Fuck that.

    but put a three pointed Swastika on it…

  6. Strange that Scotty starts instagramming snaps of him at swimming pools, and then joins Snapchat. One can only imagine the reason

  7. Australia subsidises the mining industry and the agricultural industry so why not government subsidies for manufacturing ? In particular EV manufacturing.

    Such support would tick a number of boxes. Climate / environment, jobs jobs jobs of the future, a boost to a declining manufacturing sector and a direct and indirect flow on effect to a supply chain full of small and medium business enterprises.

    It would be interesting if labor has already engaged in discussions with some visionary entrepreneur to progress this project.

    It would be a huge announcement to make during a election campaign.

    Think outside of the box.

  8. I’ve not heard it described like that before. That feels like an ideology.

    One of the explicit goals of a UBI that is enough to live on is to decouple a living income from participation in paid work.

    Philippe Van Parijs is the leading theoretician for the UBI concept. He advocates a “highest feasible / sustainable level” UBI that would make it unnecessary for a person to work in order to participate fully in the life of the community.

    The claim is not that everybody would stop participating in paid work if a highest feasible level UBI were introduced. Only that it would be possible for a person to opt out of paid work and still have enough income to live a decent life. A related claim is that such a UBI would improve the quality of paid work because employers would have to offer better wages and conditions to entice people into the workforce.

    Partial / supplemental UBI proposals are kind of pointless because people would still need to do paid work in order to earn a living and there isn’t a mechanism to prevent employers from effectively pocketing the UBI as a wage subsidy.

  11. Scorates and Billie

    Re: the 4WDs, yes exactly. They are a traffic engineering nightmare. Braking distances are terrible too, because of their high GVM. Not to mention many are so wide they barely fit in car parking spaces. In my observation most never go on rougher surfaces than the car park at Bunnings. What a waste.

    There is something else particularly nasty about 4-WDs, which now seem to be the tank of choice for dropping kids off at school: They weigh about twice as much as a regular sedan. This means that if they hit a child at 40 km/kr (School zone speeds), they impart twice as much energy as a sedan into breaking bones, skull, tearing flesh etc. They are lethal around Schools and in driveways for kids. Old statistics, but in 2002, the NRMA noted that of the 18 kids run over and killed in driveways in the previous few years, 16 of the responsible vehicles were 4WDs.

  12. I said before the last Federal election that Shorten should have had a D&M with Musk about doing something like building Model 3s in the soon to be surplus Holden, Ford or Toyota plants. They’d all been on the teat for a long time and so a deal should have been able to be worked out (with some appropriate leverage).

    Sadly I fear it’s all too late now.

  13. Damn, Barnaby and his cronies in the Nats will not be happy:
    “The rapidly dropping cost of renewable energy has upended energy economics in recent years, with new solar and wind plants now significantly cheaper than coal power.
    But new research shows another major change is afoot: The cost of batteries has been declining so unexpectedly rapidly that renewables plus battery storage are now cheaper than even natural gas plants in many applications, according to a report released this week by Bloomberg New Energy Finance (BNEF).”

    https://thinkprogress.org/renewable-energy-coal-natural-gas-a3828fd843cb/

  14. The Aussie kids in Syria are orphans.

    The children’s mother Tara Nettleton is believed to have died of a medical condition in 2015, a year after she followed Sharrouf to Syria from Sydney…………………………..Sharrouf’s two sons, Abdullah and Zarqawi, are believed to have died aged nine and eight, respectively, alongside their father in a US air strike as they travelled in a car near Raqqa, Syria, in 2017.

    https://outline.com/a636Zx

  15. I wish the government had paid me to do what I wanted when I wanted instead of committing to education then committing to the workplace for 25 odd years rising to Most Senior positions ahead of doing my sums and concluding that I could retire and commit to my children, then both under 10 years of age

    Then again, I would not be enjoying the circumstances I have enjoyed thru my life and continue to enjoy and I would not have met the people I have met and who remain my very close friends

    Each to their own, I guess

    But, if you put in you are generally rewarded both personally and financially

    And, of course, you pay tax for the reasons you do – including providing a safety net for those not as fortunate as you have been in life

    With tax, you have to earn it before you pay a rate of tax on those earnings

    So everything is relative

  16. One of the explicit goals of a UBI that is enough to live on is to decouple a living income from participation in paid work.

    That makes sense and is better than.

    the UBI is supposed to be an alternative to paid work.

    A UBI is not strictly an alternative to paid work but an alternative to forced work.

  18. booleanbach @ #1413 Monday, April 1st, 2019 – 7:29 pm

    Damn, Barnaby and his cronies in the Nats will not be happy:
    “The rapidly dropping cost of renewable energy has upended energy economics in recent years, with new solar and wind plants now significantly cheaper than coal power.
    But new research shows another major change is afoot: The cost of batteries has been declining so unexpectedly rapidly that renewables plus battery storage are now cheaper than even natural gas plants in many applications, according to a report released this week by Bloomberg New Energy Finance (BNEF).”

    https://thinkprogress.org/renewable-energy-coal-natural-gas-a3828fd843cb/

    P1 won’t be happy either. 😆

  21. Labor’s climate change policy dissected on ABC RN Drive:

    https://www.abc.net.au/radionational/programs/drive/labors-climate-change-policy-dissected/10960600

    The details of Labor’s Climate Change Action Plan features aims to reduce emissions by 45 percent by 2030 and zero net emissions by 2050.

    The new plan also promises to steer clear of carry-over carbon credits, a carbon tax or carbon pricing in measuring emissions.

    And on top of that, there’s an ambitious plan to get more electric cars on the road.

    But will any of these policies have a real impact on the bigger project of reducing the effects of climate change?

    Guests:

    Emma Herd, CEO, Investor Group on Climate Change.

    Simon Bradshaw, Climate Change Advocacy Coordinator, Oxfam.

  23. I would be happy to accept the UBI. Wife, ditto. They won’t be forcing us to work anytime soon, but hey ho, the nonny ho!
    Money for jam.

  25. BW

    What we are sort of hoping is that a new pattern of vehicle ownership evolves whereby you don’t one a car but you own shared access to a couple of cars.

    This is where I see the future of personal transport. I no longer own a car, but use GoGet (our local carshare – but also the biggest one in Australia) when I need a car. I have access to many vehicles, from things such as the Toyota Yaris and Corolla, to 4WDs, people movers and vans. There is also a very nice Mercedes Hatchback nearby which I often book. Not sure why, I have always been a Toyota Corolla kind of gal, but the German engineering sort of purrs through.

    On the other hand, I also use public transport a lot more which involves more walking, and do not use a car to “nip up to the supermarket”, and so I am healthier, and also relying less on private transport.

    Additionally, if share care and rental car fleets, plus government and business fleets, move to hybrid electric vehicles with the right incentives, the transition to hybrid electric vehicles will happen quickly.

    My employer has got rid go its fleet, and we now book GoGet vehicles for official business travel.

  26. ‘Question says:
    Monday, April 1, 2019 at 7:41 pm

    Tingle on 7:30 accidentally called the Liberals the opposition ‘

    If that was the answer, what was the Question?

  27. Interesting that the ALP aren’t going for a Carbon Tax again. If they truly believe then that is what should be done – they don’t believe either, obviously.

    I though Direct Action was useless?

    Apparently not.

    Will the ALP tell us by how much the Global Temperature will be reduced through their efforts?

  28. https://www.theguardian.com/environment/2019/apr/01/greens-blast-key-part-of-labors-climate-policy-as-fake-action

    The Greens are positioning to torpedo a key element of Labor’s new climate policy in the event Bill Shorten wins the federal election in May, telegraphing strong opposition to heavy polluters using international permits to meet their emissions reduction targets.
    :::
    Bandt said international offsets were “fake action because Australian polluters will buy overseas permits from other countries but keep polluting at home. International offsets delay climate action in Australia. More coal will be burnt at home and the transition to 100% renewables will be delayed”.
    :::
    A pitched backroom lobbying campaign has prevented governments imposing vehicle emissions standards in Australia for years.

  29. I found it very interesting that labor made the EV commitement the centre piece of its announcement today. The optics were all EV.

    Kim Carr, in particular, has been a vocal supporter over the past three years for the rebirth of a motor vehicle manufacturing industry in this country and the multiple flow on effects it would have for the economy.

    Perhaps a “ watch this space “ prediction may not be too out there.

  30. sprocket_ says:
    Monday, April 1, 2019 at 6:53 pm

    Great, a Laura Norder Budget – what a winning strategy from the one trick pony

    .@Riley7News also reveals the budget will include a multi-million corruption crackdown, targeting organised crime groups scamming government agencies out of tens of millions of dollars #7News #auspol

    F*ck me!

    They’re organising a crackdown on themselves. 😆

  32. Mike Carlton

    @MikeCarlton01

    All the signs are that SloMo & Co will do all they can to stop these kids returning to Australia. They’re children. They are not responsible for the sins of the father.

  33. The Coalition’s policy won’t be dissected on RN Drive. They don’t have one to dissect.

    Ditto with the Greens. You only bother trying to pull apart something that actually has more than a snowflake’s chance in hell of being implemented.

  36. What was announced today by labor has nothing to do with direct action just as it has noth8ng to do with a “Whyalla is burning “ carbon tax.

  37. “An Australian car manufacturing industry is not going to happen again for the simple reason that it will always be cheaper to set one up in an Asian or Indian country. The wages thing will always dictate that outcome.”

    C@t – with love and respect, advances in automation make the wages issue largely irrelevant. Energy costs, steal and aluminium costs, reliable parts suppliers and transportation costs potentially makes an “exactly on time” local production line for a 25 million population base (35 million+ if you include NZ, the pacific and limited exports to the north and east) quite viable. Last I checked Gupta was still talking about setting up an EV production line in Adelaide in the next 2-3 years.

  38. ratsak@7:06pm
    I renaming Greens as Anti-environment party.
    The do not want Climate Change issue to be addressed. They do not want Climate Change issue to be solved. If it is solved they become irrelevant. Hence, they will always put obstructions so that it is not solved.

  40. C@tmomma says:
    Monday, April 1, 2019 at 7:37 pm
    booleanbach @ #1413 Monday, April 1st, 2019 – 7:29 pm

    Damn, Barnaby and his cronies in the Nats will not be happy:
    “The rapidly dropping cost of renewable energy has upended energy economics in recent years, with new solar and wind plants now significantly cheaper than coal power.
    But new research shows another major change is afoot: The cost of batteries has been declining so unexpectedly rapidly that renewables plus battery storage are now cheaper than even natural gas plants in many applications, according to a report released this week by Bloomberg New Energy Finance (BNEF).”

    https://thinkprogress.org/renewable-energy-coal-natural-gas-a3828fd843cb/

    P1 won’t be happy either.

    Trog (remember him?) would have been saying – I told you so.

  42. Ven @ #1438 Monday, April 1st, 2019 – 7:52 pm

    ratsak@7:06pm
    I renaming Greens as Anti-environment party.
    The do not want Climate Change issue to be addressed. They do not want Climate Change issue to be solved. If it is solved they become irrelevant. Hence, they will always put obstructions so that it is not solved.

    The Greens delivered on the Clean Energy laws in 2013.

  43. A billion dollar start up subsidy for a EV manufacturing plant in Australia is small change and just a drop in the franking credit ocean.

    The franking credit crackdown would also easily fund ongoing financial support for the industry as well.

  45. Paddy Manning:

    https://www.themonthly.com.au/today/paddy-manning/2019/28/2019/1553748296/one-nation-vs-greens

    Worryingly, almost exactly the same criticism could be levelled at the Greens’ language on climate change and environmental collapse – the same alarm bells have been ringing with the same urgency since at least 1972, when The Limits to Growth and Edward Goldsmith’s A Blueprint for Survival put their finger on the exact problem we are now facing. This is worrying because one party is wrong and one party is right. Immigration is not an urgent threat to Australia – it has enriched the country. Climate change really is a threat to Australia, which is the driest continent on earth and among the most coal-dependent.

    The Greens are a danger to the thermal coal industry, that’s for sure. Announcing their climate policy today, the party set emissions targets of 63–82 per cent reductions by 2030, to get to net zero by 2040 (10 years earlier than Labor), and flagged a phase-out of coal exports by 2030 – which is the biggest contribution by far that Australia could make to emissions reduction globally, easily exceeding our own estimated emissions of ~1.5 per cent of the world total. Di Natale this morning told RN Breakfast that the party’s approach was “based on science, not on the politics of the day”. Extreme? Extremely rational.

    AGW is an existential threat that requires real and rapid action as dictated by the science.

  49. I’m still hearing election announced at the end of this week and a 6 week campaign.

    All I’m hearing is the Greens and Coalition tag team to slag off Labor’s environment policies.

    Won’t help either much thankfully.

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