BludgerTrack: 52.9-47.1 to Labor

Movement to the Coalition on the BludgerTrack poll aggregate, after a better-than-usual result in the only new federal poll for the week.

With Newspoll holding its fire over the weekend of the New South Wales state election, the only new federal poll of the week came from Essential Research, which produced a relatively strong result for the Coalition. The BludgerTrack aggregate accordingly moves slightly in their favour, with Labor’s lead down from 53.3-46.7 to 52.9-47.1. This translates into a gain for the Coalition of two on the seat projection, with New South Wales and Victoria providing one apiece.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

1,589 comments on “BludgerTrack: 52.9-47.1 to Labor”

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  1. “A-E
    What do you suggest?”

    A $1 billion cash prize to the first manufacturer to locallly build and sell 5,000 EV vehicles in Australia for $A15,000 or less (2019 dollar value) that meet the following benchmarks:

    4-5 seats
    400 litre boot capacity
    Minimum 200km range
    Minimum recharge rate of 12km per minute.

  2. Seriously though, have The Greens stopped to think why their vote is flatlining?

    Warm fuzzies about sticking it to the Labor Man only ever impresses about 1/10 people. Always has. Always will.

  3. “From all I’m reading today, the Greens are going to refuse to back anything except the “pure” solution to climate change. Last week SHY was forecasting much the same for the MDB. The patronising “We know best” is becoming soooo frustrating. Why can’t they ever compromise…”

    Think at the moment things are pretty intensefor everyone on positioning and much pointless “virtue signalling” going on. Raally,….. i think the Greens may be a bit rattled at the moment with the ALP coming out with a reasonable and achievable policy that makes their declared positions look a bit extreme. Give em time to calm down a bit. 🙂

    I’m willing to give the Greens a bit of slack, for now, and see how things go but will be real dark on them if they do get the numbers in the Senate and use those to screw up real, near term action now push is coming to shove.

    Me, campaigning for an ALP Govt and hoping for a realistically workable Senate.

  4. Steven Hail did the following calculations for a UBI for all Australian citizens and permanent migrants aged 15 and over. He was responding to the Greens’ proposal in April 2018 for a UBI of over $20,000 per person per year.

    Why 15 years and over? Because 15 is the minimum working age and the UBI is supposed to be an alternative to paid work.

    Why include permanent migrants? Because it would be unethical and unfair to exclude them.

    Set the UBI at $21,700 per year (which is the current maximum base rate for the Age Pension and the Disability Support Pension).

    20.2 million people would receive it (this is the current number of Australian citizens and permanent migrants aged 15 and over).

    Scrap all existing social security and welfare spending.

    Total federal spending would still have to increase by well over 50 percent. That is a massive increase.

    To make the extra spending non-inflationary, it would be necessary to

    double the GST

    AND

    increase all marginal income tax rates by 10 to 15 percentage points

    AND

    abolish all existing tax deductions (including the very popular deductions for superannuation)

    Or you’d have to devise some other set of tax increases that would have the same net effect.

    It would be extremely difficult to sell tax increases of that magnitude to the Australian people.

    Steven wrote about these issues in this article for Independent Australia:

    https://independentaustralia.net/politics/politics-display/a-job-guarantee-a-better-cheaper-alternative-to-the-greens-ubi,11486

  5. Off topic, perhaps, but…

    @samanthamaiden
    5h5 hours ago

    The fact free narrative that PM can “reject” Sharrouf children is amusing.

    FACT: They are Australian citizens and whether we like it or not have every right to come home unless duals and we cancel their citizenship. Are we doing that now to kids?

  6. “In the short term the best policy for these people is the other half of what was announced today – to ensure that we get more efficient conventional vehicles,that will also be cheaper to run. The Labor policy is to mandate 105 g CO2/km for the rest of the light vehicle fleet. That is easily achieved by most hybrids. We bought ours for under $25K. Average car emissions = 180 g CO2/km; a Commodore six was 220. So this is a big reduction, and will save people money.”

    I simply don’t believe that is ambitious enough for working class people.

    Shit. I’m (relatively speaking) rich and I’d badly at paying $70K for an EV Golf. Or a Tesla Model 3. Etc. Fuck that.

  7. lizzie @ #1358 Monday, April 1st, 2019 – 6:46 pm

    Off topic, perhaps, but…

    @samanthamaiden
    5h5 hours ago

    The fact free narrative that PM can “reject” Sharrouf children is amusing.

    FACT: They are Australian citizens and whether we like it or not have every right to come home unless duals and we cancel their citizenship. Are we doing that now to kids?

    He could always put them in the internment camps that he enthusiastically campaigned for and like his PoliBro, Trump is doing in America.

  8. A-E
    I assume that some company would take a billion to set up an assembly line in Townsville that delivers sub $20,000 EVs for the Australian market.

  9. “A billion buys you a complete car manufacturing industry…”

    What a game changer it would be if Musk or Gupta started punching out $15,000 EVs in Australia by 2023. From being the follower, we’d be the world leader. A billion would be worth it. Ten times over.

  10. Speculation….

    EXCLUSIVE from @Riley7News – Dr Fiona Martin will replace Craig Laundy as the Liberal candidate for Reid. Jilly Pilon will be the party’s candidate in Dobell. Ministers have been told to prepare for a four & a half week campaign…Which points to a May 11 election. #7News #auspol

  11. Jilly Pilon was the Liberal candidate for the seat of Gosford and was soundly rejected by the electorate. She will again be soundly rejected by the electorate of Dobell.

  12. .. the irony Biden looks to go down because he fancies himself a ladies man ( old fool )& make the odd unacceptable action. Meanwhile Trump shags a porn star while wife breast feeds his new born son.. The GOP write the rules for everyone except themselves.
    The end result will benefit the Democrats as they pick a younger woman.

  13. Great, a Laura Norder Budget – what a winning strategy from the one trick pony

    .@Riley7News also reveals the budget will include a multi-million corruption crackdown, targeting organised crime groups scamming government agencies out of tens of millions of dollars #7News #auspol

  14. sprocket_ @ #1373 Monday, April 1st, 2019 – 6:53 pm

    Great, a Laura Norder Budget – what a winning strategy from the one trick pony

    .@Riley7News also reveals the budget will include a multi-million corruption crackdown, targeting organised crime groups scamming government agencies out of tens of millions of dollars #7News #auspol

    Such as? Bankers?

  15. EXCLUSIVE: Described as an “exceptional candidate” @DrFionaMartin will replace @LaundyCraigMP as the Liberal Candidate for the NSW seat of Reid. Dr Martin is the head of the Sydney Child Psychology Centre #7News #auspol @Riley7News

  16. “I assume that some company would take a billion to set up an assembly line in Townsville that delivers sub $20,000 EVs for the Australian market.”

    I assume that it would actually cost a hell of a lot more than $1 billion to meet those benchmarks, but I’m appealing to these entrepreneur’s sense of competition and the PR Triumph it would represent. Which would ultimately equal mega profits – and hopefully along the way an awesome manufacturing industry rebooted for this country.

    The policy would be a “no lose” situation – either there would be no manufacturer that would take up the challenge (in which there’re would be no cost to the tax payer) OR, if one or more did take up the challenge and suceeeded the value for Australia and its people would be immense.

  17. the UBI is supposed to be an alternative to paid work.

    I’ve not heard it described like that before. That feels like an ideology.

    For me a UBI is a regular return on the wealth created by the nation’s people by their muscle and brains to build the infrastructure and technology we use. It might vary from year to year. (I don’t know what a Marxist truly is, but perhaps I’m in the closet.) A UBI would not stop me seeking a work, but free me up to do fulfilling work. Heck I would do the work for $1 an hour if I enjoyed it enough. There would be no need for a minimum wage. (Hello employer. 🙂 )

  18. Morrson models himself on Caroline Overington -YELL and SCREAM

    Overington on the drum just treated a guest who had written on the USA with total disrespect, cringeworthy to be honest

  19. An Australian car manufacturing industry is not going to happen again for the simple reason that it will always be cheaper to set one up in an Asian or Indian country. The wages thing will always dictate that outcome.

  20. Labor should not need to comprise. A policy, they are not given credit where credit is due, and the fact greens helped stuff up minority government by hiding.

  21. sprocket_ @ #1377 Monday, April 1st, 2019 – 6:55 pm

    EXCLUSIVE: Described as an “exceptional candidate” @DrFionaMartin will replace @LaundyCraigMP as the Liberal Candidate for the NSW seat of Reid. Dr Martin is the head of the Sydney Child Psychology Centre #7News #auspol @Riley7News

    Liberal Doctors are always better than Labor Doctors, aren’t they? 🙄

  22. What’s all this yankee ‘mom’ ‘ crud ?

    When I saw the article this morning i wondered if Scrott would use it as a ‘Dog Whistle’ opportunity. ChCh was a bit of a bummer for the dog whistle enthusiasts but this ? Scrott keeping us safe from ‘muzzos’ vs Labor (doing the right thing) saying the kids should be allowed back ?

  23. Just got robo-polled.
    First question multiple choice of most important issue – 5 hardly exhaustive choices.
    Then favorability/unfavourability of Sharkie and Downer.
    Voting intention
    PPM
    Demographics.

  24. Ok PBers.

    Faced with an army of subterranean vermin and enemies of the environment, what do I do?

    Of course, I’m talking about mole crickets. The chirpy little fuckers are destroying my lawn – What’s the good oil on their removal? I would like to not have to destroy the local biosphere.

  25. Perhaps too cynical, but there’ll always be more votes for the Greens so long as there is no action on climate change.

    Remember, voting for the Greens isn’t about actually achieving anything for the environment. It’s about making middle class white people *feel* like they’re doing something for the environment.

  26. Tim Dunlop responding to Margo Kingston’s long thread about her experiences appearing on the ABC with Alan Jones.

    @timdunlop

    What a disgrace, ABC.
    Makes you realise that the sort of interview Waleed Aly did with the PM the other just about wouldn’t be tolerated on the ABC these days.

  27. Just got UEcommed.
    ACT-specific including a few talking point daggers aimed at the heart of Sezelja.
    Maybe they really going to have a go at getting rid of this extreme rightist.

  28. he best, only and dare I say it last way to actually obtain the sort of policy ambition that Pegarex craves is for Labor to implement its policy to the letter in its first term and then say to the public:

    “There. We kept our word and delivered no surprises. The sky hasn’t fallen in. Now trust us to be more ambitious for our next term”..

    Again, Amen

    Trust in politics is fractured. A new government that keeps its word grows its political capital to be even more ambitious in the medium or long term.

    Regrettably and frustratingly I can virtually guarantee that the Greens will actively work against the restoration of public trust in government whilst labor is in power for the simply reason that if labor is successful it makes the Greens redundant.

    Yup. The Greens strategy is to profit from amplifying cynicism. With the right of course giving no one reason to be anything but cynical it is imperative for the Greens to ensure Labor fails in it’s efforts to prove themselves worthy of any trust. Any of the compromises that must be made to build a majority in a diverse nation can and will be twisted and smeared. All policies that seek to come to a position that a majority can accept can and will be slandered as insufficient as the Greens adopt their usual position ‘just beyond what a party actually looking to govern can support (at this time)’.

    Their cynicism rivals the Coalitions. As someone who previously gave them a 1 ATL in the Senate I now hold them in utter contempt. They are barely less of an obstacle to progress in this county than the Coalition. As such they will still get a Senate pref from me, but it will go through every single other proper progressive voice I can find on the ballot paper first and I dearly hope one of those groups will be able to put it to use so it never finds its way to the sanctimonious pricks.

  29. ‘Andy Murray says:
    Monday, April 1, 2019 at 7:02 pm

    Ok PBers.

    Faced with an army of subterranean vermin and enemies of the environment, what do I do?

    Of course, I’m talking about mole crickets. The chirpy little fuckers are destroying my lawn – What’s the good oil on their removal? I would like to not have to destroy the local biosphere.’

    Get rid of your lawn and replace it with natives ground covers.

  30. For those who don’t know Snapchat, it is the favourite vehicle for sexting – as you can have the messages and photos auto delete after being read. Sort of like Scotty’s BrainFarts.

  31. Andy Murray @ #1390 Monday, April 1st, 2019 – 7:02 pm

    Ok PBers.

    Faced with an army of subterranean vermin and enemies of the environment, what do I do?

    Of course, I’m talking about mole crickets. The chirpy little fuckers are destroying my lawn – What’s the good oil on their removal? I would like to not have to destroy the local biosphere.

    A native garden. Get rid of the weed, otherwise known as grass. You know it makes sense. Make it drought and Climate Change tolerant too.

  32. AJM
    On the price of EVs:
    “The manufacturers are extracting what the market will bear.”

    You may have a fair suspicion there. Lotsof parts of the global car industry are in financial trouble, quite apart from EVs. It is over supplied.

    In this financial climate, if manufacturers perceive that a cohort of wealthy buyers will pay a premium price to buy an EV, then they will surely charge a premium price. In this regard I note with concern that the price of the Nissan Leaf varies enormously from market to market, depending on demand. So it will be important to make sure there are incentives for EVs, but no more than current subsidies to petrol and diesel reallocated. Despite their bleating, the industry will soon respond to that.

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