Newspoll have held off this week owing to the New South Wales election, resulting in one of the occasional three week gaps in their schedule. However, the fortnightly Essential Research will come through as normal this (i.e. Monday) evening. In other non-New South Wales news, moderate faction nominee and Christopher Pyne ally James Stewart won the Liberal preselection for Sturt on Saturday, consistent with expectations and despite resistance from conservatives who sought to make hay from the fact that the moderates had chosen not to back a woman. We also have a front page headline in The Australian this morning that reads, “Gladys triumph: PM eyes May 11”. Beyond that, over to you.
It would be a Baldrick class ‘Cunning Plan’ to bring up Industry Super during the election campaign. They have been so awful compared to………………….oh wait.
imacca @ #249 Monday, March 25th, 2019 – 2:36 pm
You’d rather he allow Kmart and the SDA to deny their members their choice of super fund ?
I don’t agree on replacing Daley. The Libs can keep pointing at him and ask why Shorten etc Labor whatever haven’t criticised sacked whatever him.
I can see stability as a plus a new start is what fed Labor are selling.
Just my opinion.
“What does Labor want the narrative to be, “Coalition makes amazing comeback” or “Labor takes swift action against racist comment after shock loss”?”
The thing is the comment wasn’t really racist, and the loss wasn’t a shock at all. That the pundits were counting Penrith as an “in-play” marginal says enough.
There was never much chance of Labor winning outright – the most common prediction overt he past few months was a hung parliament; that the Coalition manage a 1 or 2 seat majority is not far off the mark.
Somehow there’s been a real rewriting of history, with many media outlets depicting an election where the government lost seats and suffered a significant statewide swing against, as a major victory. Despite Foley not being popular or even really known, when the leadership change occurred late last year the expectation was that it would hurt Labor’s already poor chances.
Where did this Daley as saviour meme come from? He seems a decent guy, and a good communicator, and he did well all told. No big surprise though.
Uri Gellar…………..I will stop you telepathically………..lol
I wonder if our footie club can hire him…..there are one or two players we would like to stop from doing stupid things on the field……..lol
Diogenes @ #253 Monday, March 25th, 2019 – 2:43 pm
So, Bill Shorten hasn’t commented on the Daley dog whistle yet ..?
Gellar is as much a charlatan as May.
It appears that Monday is leading question day.
Dio
Polls are so rare at state level it probably does not matter much.
The NSW ALP needs a 2011 or later first time elected candidate and a dynamic plan which will factor in the following:
(a) there will be two federal elections before the next state election;
(b) the grand spend on NSW infrastructure might be successful;
(c) the road to victory might be harder next time around especially as in Sydney the seats to be won are a little further away than before last Saturday.
How about a teacher or nurse or someone in emergency services?
“You’d rather he allow Kmart and the SDA to deny their members their choice of super fund ?”
I’d rather he win the election and toss out the Libs. Seems we are working in diametrically opposite directions in that context.
imacca @ #260 Monday, March 25th, 2019 – 2:54 pm
Seems so as I just want the right thing done by the union members.
Rex: “Seems so as I’m just want the right thing done by the union members.”
Unions bargain collectively, that’s their purpose and their strategy.
You seem to have little knowledge of unions…
#weather on PB:
http://www.bom.gov.au/products/IDW60281.shtml
This is not a good track map. Pt Samson (best fish and chip shop anywhere ever) gets a hit and then the worst possible circumstance for Karratha. Cyclone heading right into the bay between Karratha and Burrup.
Was always told by locals that would mean serious flooding in Karratha…dependent on tides at the time.
Out of curiosity, how long is Gladys going to last?
Port Samson being the place where the hessian bags of blue asbestos from Wittenoom were onloaded to ships mainly travelling in Sydney.
antonbruckner11 @ #264 Monday, March 25th, 2019 – 3:02 pm
A long time given the hopelessness of NSW Labor.
What’s wrong with Rest?
Yes to a more proportional voting system, bring in Hare-Clark. The major parties potentially getting majorities with under 40% of the primary vote is an embarrassment imo, and eats away at the trust we put into democracy.
lab276 @ #269 Monday, March 25th, 2019 – 3:11 pm
I agree. How could anyone not ..?
The UK has a first past the post system but no compulsory voting.
Why do you say that Lab276?
Democracy is, by it’s nature, able to be spread around many candidates or few. That’s the whole point. I like our preferential system i.e. if you can’t have your first choice, who would you want next etc…?
Jenauthor
Not McRuddin!
The best way to become well-known is to prove that a favourite theory is “wrong”.
Or really “inadequate”.
A well-remembered announcement at a conference was that three different marine species/genera were different stages of the same species. Someone started talking about another platypus “hoax”!
antonbruckner11
It has been suggested to me (by a Lib supporter in Epping), that the answer to your question is:
“as long as Dominic Perrotet is prepared to permit it”.
Not sure if anyone has any thoughts, information to support this. I have heard nothing apart from the original suggestion.
https://www.theguardian.com/business/grogonomics/2019/mar/23/jacinda-envy-why-the-days-of-a-middle-aged-white-male-leader-could-be-over
lizzie @ #268 Monday, March 25th, 2019 – 2:05 pm
How many seats did the Nats contest? How many did the Greens contest? And who where their opponents? Someone might let Cate Faerhrmann know that it’s more complex than just comparing a state-wide primary vote. (But to be fair it is one of the first thoughts I had when I saw the numbers, before thinking further.)
I suspect McCrudden (sp?) is in his dotage now – but I must admit I enjoyed his lack of orthodoxy.
Yeah, scientists disagree, and are blessed with the same failings as the rest of us …
phylactella @ #273 Monday, March 25th, 2019 – 2:15 pm
Particularly annoying is when science conspiracies are trotted out. One driving passion among scientists is to prove the rest wrong (or inadequate), to get it right first.
Late Riser @ #276 Monday, March 25th, 2019 – 3:23 pm
…and if the Nats ran in every seat they’d still be on 9.6%
Late Riser @ #178 Monday, March 25th, 2019 – 12:58 pm
Shit no!
Seriously – I’ve been involved with these. They work but are an awful lot of work for what is basically empirical witchcraft. Currently the safety infrastructure alone occupies whole Departments in teaching hospitals (Tom Borody’s example notwithstanding). Eventually we will work out some of the extremely complex effector relationships and variation of the gut microbiomes sufficiently to modulate with confidence, but not with whole poo, and not at a GP level.
Rex Douglas @ #280 Monday, March 25th, 2019 – 2:26 pm
You may be right. Do you have thoughts on the other questions I posed.
rhwombat, you made me smile. Thanks. And for the perspective too, thanks.
“It has been suggested to me (by a Lib supporter in Epping), that the answer to your question is:
“as long as Dominic Perrotet is prepared to permit it”.”
The Libs anywhere will NOT want to go near #leadershit before the Fed election.
Leave it to the Nats. 🙂
A preferential system works fine as long as a good number of people are voting for the two main parties as their first preference. But a significant number of people do not. They are perfectly happy to let their votes exhaust because they don’t like either of the two. And that just doesn’t seem good for democracy. The majors are practically guaranteed to win more seats then they deserve because of that. People become apathetic and parties become complacent. What if Labor had to fight for every vote in an area instead of being just someone’s second or third option? Would they be more likely to put forward decent policies if they knew they couldn’t sit still? I reckon they would.
How does proportional representation manage local members?
I don’t think there’s anything wrong with the current setup.
It makes sense that the Greens are sore though; for a “growing force” scoring a vote share of <10% is embarrassing. KSO beat them in several seats.
I don’t agree that some of the ridiculous scare claims of the Coalition around the “carbon tax” worked. I don’t accept that many people swallowed claims like $100 lamb roasts and towns being wiped off the map, and those who did tended to be rusted ons who would then go on to say that climate change was a big hoax anyway. What the Coalition did succeed with though, with the help of a compliant media, was to portray the introduction of carbon pricing as a broken promise. That was what stuck with swinging voters, the Coalition and the media created a narrative of Julia Gillard as someone who could no longer be trusted. Of course to ad to this, they also used the way she became Prime Minister to complete the narative, with great success. The Coalition are in for a world of pain if they believe a re run of the same old scare campaigns will work again.
lizzie says:
Monday, March 25, 2019 at 10:50 am
On medicare:
Yesterday I had a full MRI on brain and spine. No charge.
OK, so I’ll be paying for the specialists who diagnose later, but how lucky we are in Australia, compared with US, for example.
————————
Lizzie: I realize that you are happy with not having to pay for your tests. But I wish that there was some outrage about how limited Medicare is. Why should you have to pay for specialists who can charge what they like, while Medicare gives G.P.’s a pittance for their bulk billed essential frontline services.
Australia’s Medicare is a two-tier “dog’s breakfast” thanks to the Coalition watering it down over the years. We should not be settling for anything less than single-payer universal medicare, bulk billing for ALL essential hospital and medical services.
I’ve said this before, but for the past 50 years Canadians have never been billed for any medical or hospital expenses. It’s illegal for hospitals, G.P.’s or specialists to do so. There are no “private” hospitals as we understand them here. Hospitals are nearly universally public and there is no need for private medical or health insurance. It hasn’t wrecked the Canadian economy and, in a similar federal system, the provinces have all been on board administering it. Wait times are no longer than for comparable bulk billed services in this country.
I’ve never understood why there hasn’t been any significant outcry for a real universal health system in Australia. Even the Labor Party seems content to just tinker around the edges and launch well justified “mediscares.” I realize that they have enough to do just defending the system from further Coalition inroads.
Enough of my rant. I hope that things work out for you, Lizzie
At least with Hare-Clark (Which is a form of STV), you still get local representation, it’s just the seats are larger. Maybe Labor voters in the toff parts will finally get their own members, same with Liberal voters in the south west.
Climate Council
New analysis from @market_forces shows 22 of Australia’s largest companies are actively working to undermine the Paris agreement targets, betting shareholders’ money on strategies that assume global climate change action fails.
Imacca@3.29 pm:
I think the thought was … give it 12 to 18 months.
If so we can sit back and enjoy the Nats in the meantime.
shellbell @ #267 Monday, March 25th, 2019 – 2:51 pm
Kaila Murnain? (Ducks).
Ye Gads, if we are going to go for some kind of MMP system, let’s actually do it right. No Hare (brained)-Clark thankyou: either a direct proportional rep system or a MMP system. I’d prefer the later.
beguiledagain @ #1009 Monday, March 25th, 2019 – 3:34 pm
Having worked in both medical systems, I completely concur that the Canadian primary (ie GP) system is better for all concerned. Trouble is, you can’t get there from ours – too many GRASPers trying to monetise illness.
Bennelong Lurker@3:19pm
You are on to something. The Epping Lib supporter knows what he is talking because he is from Dominic P electorate.. Since ABC is now predicting 47 seats (ie LNP majority on its own right), when Gladys is replaced sometime in this term like last 2 terms (don’t tell me that Barry and Mike resigned, I know that) we will get Dominic P as premier ( and dark days are ahead of us). So careful what you wish for. So it is even more important that we have a change of government in May.
rhwombat@3:39pm
No.
lizzie says:
Monday, March 25, 2019 at 2:34 pm
Some disabilities Look Like This
Some look like this
——————–
My wife who is legally blind and an advocate for the blind and visually impaired
seconds your motion.
She uses a white cane, not only for navigation, but equally to make people aware of her disability.
Ven@3.29 pm:
Definitely not wishing it. Saw him in action at a “Meet the Candidates ” gathering a couple of weeks ago. Scary.
Out now for a while and into town for a Piano Recital early this evening.
Yup, MMP is a good answer, and my preferred electoral system – proportionality and local members and it isn’t too complex/opaque.
From a scrutineer in Dubbo:
Next to no preference flows of any note. Quite extraordinary. Highest Vote 1 i’ve ever seen.
Dickerson zero chance to pull back 2CP.
It’s all over. Dubbo Nats Hold by an estimated 2CP 1000-1500 votes.
#nswvotes @SkyNewsAust