Newspoll have held off this week owing to the New South Wales election, resulting in one of the occasional three week gaps in their schedule. However, the fortnightly Essential Research will come through as normal this (i.e. Monday) evening. In other non-New South Wales news, moderate faction nominee and Christopher Pyne ally James Stewart won the Liberal preselection for Sturt on Saturday, consistent with expectations and despite resistance from conservatives who sought to make hay from the fact that the moderates had chosen not to back a woman. We also have a front page headline in The Australian this morning that reads, “Gladys triumph: PM eyes May 11”. Beyond that, over to you.
Reheated $100 roasts and Whyalla closed again?
An interesting phenomena with OPV in NSW costing Labor a seat, if preferences had of flowed normally from the left-of-centre group. They exhaust when they have the chance, rather than preference.
From Antony Green
The minor party vote in East Hills is 17.1%, GRN 4.5, CDP 4.5, KSO 3.5, IND 2.9, AJP 1.8. Currently 19% of preferences are flowing to the Liberal, 25% to Labor and 56% exhausting. Labor is 2.5% behind on primaries and failing to close the gap.
“The next recession will expose the eurozone as a half-baked project in need of leadership”
https://www.theguardian.com/business/2019/mar/24/the-europe-union-has-bigger-problems-to-deal-with-than-brexit
‘From certain angles he reminds me a bit of the late great actor Karl Malden.’
Quite agree, although Malden didn’t have a huge hole in his foot.
mundo
The thing about concern trolling is that it requires intelligence, nuance, subtlety and rat cunning. You display a smidge of rat cunning being of the Coalition, but you are a fizzer on the rest.
I suggest rebooting yourself as a sock puppet and lifting your game. It might help.
‘Reheated $100 roasts and Whyalla closed again?’
Why not. It worked last time.
Jenauthor
That brings memories. I used this argument (a lot) with my friends at uni lunch table.
Back in 1957!
Just to be annoying to the dogmatic Anglicans and Catholics!
I still agree with the sentiments.
My opening statement to classes that I taught (years later) – “Don’t necessarily believe anything you are told – including what I just said”
PM Ardern now updating on ABC24.
What are the NZ residency requirements for an Australian citizen ?
lizzie
It is an interesting article for what it leaves out.
It uses some comparisons but does not do a comparative analysis.
For example, why no mention that China is saddled with a huge debt and 40,000,000 empty dwelling units?
Why no mention that US debt under Trump is now $23 trillion?
Why not go the whole hog and say lamb roasts $1 million dollars and your house will be worth $100 under Labor.Its that pathetic from the Libs again.
Lizzie
As for the next recession… Australia is standing in it.
“Confirmed by NSW Labor on ABC24 that leadership won’t be settled until after the election.”
Under the new party rules, a lose at a GE automatically triggers a spill. If there is a contested ballot, there is a process involving a series of candidate debates and forums, followed by a postal ballot, followed by a caucus meeting. I think the 2013 Federal Leadership Ballot process took about 6 weeks all up.
The federal election will be held between 6 to 8 weeks away. There is no way NSW Labor, especially its members, should be distracted by a State Leadership ballot until after the Federal Election is done.
If Daley stands and there is a challenger, then he should stay on as interim leader until after the election, even though trolls like you Rex will go into full troll “dark forces” mode.
If Daley does not decide to run but there are two or more other candidate then either he, or the most senior non leadership candidate, should act as interim leader until after the federal election.
Either way, as a NSW ALP member, I have zero interest in focusing on who should be the NSW Leader until after the federal election.
Thanks for your thoughts re NATs voters. Probably Unions and the natural Greens haters (ALP being too close to Greens). I live in a regional area, high unemployment, low wages and yet the Nats get elected, also with a high ON vote.
Alan Jones and Ray Hadley are networked here as well as other regional areas. The reach of 2GB is not Sydney centric.
I always number every square on the NSW lower house ballot. For me it better reflects how I feel about candidates and given the example above from sprocket about East Hills.I would hate to think that just voting 1 cost the ALP a seat.
‘Why not go the whole hog and say lamb roasts $1 million dollars and your house will be worth $100 under Labor.Its that pathetic from the Libs again.’
Um..let me think, because that’d be stupid and their rat cunning tells them just how far out to push the boat….?
Just back from lunch with a mate, a barber (mentioned him before).
He tells me we’re in a recession, and that has some unorthodox measures of economic activity in his hands – literally in his hands. They are five, ten and twenty dollar notes. He’s being paid mainly in fives, tens and twenties. Barely any fifties are being handed over for $35 haircuts. His shops are in Gordon and Mosman, so this is a big change from the norm.
He reckons it can only mean one thing – money is getting tight.
Sprocket. The low rate of OPV is interesting. I can well imagine that the “Asian” jib and the SFF stitch-up cost labor dearly with Green voters. They certainly killed off any chance that Labor might have had in a seat like Balmain (particularly the SFF stitch-up).
Andrew_Earlwood @ #211 Monday, March 25th, 2019 – 1:37 pm
The ‘dark elements’ will do anything to maintain control.
The cancer needs to be cut out.
I know most businesses around this area are about 15% down in revenue compared to last year.
Boerwar
Wrong.
Jeez you remind me of Frank C from years ago.
I could demonstrate my Labor credentials but bullies like you really aren’t worth blowing cover for.
Try harder.
Damn steve d, that’s massive.
Andy Murray…
Yup….the domestic economy is very weak…reckon that year-on-year sales for most of the businesses out in the northern parts of Perth will be down….sales down, hours worked, investment…whole pic is feeble. The housing market is still declining, discretionary spending also…
mundo @ #200 Monday, March 25th, 2019 – 10:26 am
To turn around and say a policy is going to cost you $9,000 a year is beyond stupid. It’s only going to “convince” people who are rusted on against whatever Labor and Shorten said or did.
Andy Murray
So yes I agree with your recession sentiment from your friend.Theres no doubt there has been a large reduction in discretionary spending in the last 12 months.It will no doubt see more businesses close all round the country in the months to come.
Rex D’s characterisation of Labor as a ‘cancer’ is absolutely disgraceful. We can see well enough from the events in Christchurch what can happen when de-humanising, hate-making language is used for political purposes.
Rex uses the most vile tropes to defile Labor. I think they should be thrown off PB for doing so. They are thoroughly repugnant.
Grimace
It’s the swinging voter that counts.
Best wishes and thoughts, Lizzie
Daley can be picked off by the NSW ALP at their leisure.
It won’t make a jot of difference if Chris Minns is the new leader now or in June.
mundo @ #226 Monday, March 25th, 2019 – 10:56 am
Which was my point. No swinging voter is going to believe that any policy is going to cost a voter an extra $9,000 per year.
For the record, I have my doubts that any swinging voter believed the $100 lamb roast nonsense either.
shellbell…you’re quite right about the leadership
grimace…as we know, the scares will keep coming. They’ve tried most of them and they’ve fallen flat. But it will get very dirty. 47 days of misinformation to go.
We will have to double the door-knocking…
Boerwar re mundo: “I suggest rebooting yourself as a sock puppet and lifting your game. It might help.”
Would that be a a sock puppet with a massive hole blown in his foot?
But seriously – why the reflexive defence of Daley? Wetherill nearly won a fifth term (and would have, absent the tampering) by being really positive in the fourth and getting on with things (and with reference to Andrews, it is much more difficult to do this in the fourth term than in the first or second). Shorten is positive from Opposition. Why try to beat the Tories at their own game? (thus reminding people of the recent successful attempt to beat them at corruption – though of course Obeid would have and did corrupt whichever party was in government at the time). No-one should be in politics doe the accolades (I’m sure Ardern isn’t).
shellbell
Thank you. 🙂
briefly @ #231 Monday, March 25th, 2019 – 11:05 am
I’ve got to convince Mrs G to let me go door knocking in the northern reaches of Pearce on the weekends, however long the drive is.
I’ve got some ADO’s banked so I can do mid week door knocking in the middle of April.
No one is talking about the cost of *not* doing anything about energy and climate change.
“I always number every square on the NSW lower house ballot. For me it better reflects how I feel about candidates and given the example above from sprocket about East Hills.I would hate to think that just voting 1 cost the ALP a seat.”
OPV did not cost minority Labor Government, let alone 47+ seats to secure majority government: a combination of a lack of a “big”, “signature” positive plan to give punters hope, a loss of momentum in the last week and an inability to turn the protest anger into votes for Labor (whether on PV or by preferences) is what done them in. All 4 major parties lost their share of the PV – the coalition because they were on the nose, Labor and Greens to other ‘progressive’ protest parties.
That said OPV certainly cost Labor the Upper Hunter, if it stays Liberals – East Hills and probably Penrith and Tweed. OPV has probably seen the Nats just hold onto Dubbo.
On the other hand lack of a swing to the total progressive vote saw Heathcote, Seven Hills and Goulburn stay in the conservative hands. The loss of momentum last week was significant in that regard.
In hindsight it seems obvious now that Labor needed everything to go right to win just 7-8 seats, and with another 2-3 falling to minors that would have put paid to the coalition government. The last week was a shitstorm of oxygen depriving events and in the seats that mattered, Labor was back to where it was late last year.
Phylactella – your name isn’t McRuddin is it? My science teacher at high school said that to us. He also said most science is theory called ‘fact’ until a better theory comes along to supersede it.
“47 days of misinformation to go.”
Err, there is an opposition to challenge tory misinformation, yes?
47 days of spirited passionate opposition ahead.
Bill will be on the telly any minute now calling out Scumo’s bullshite from this morning.
Lizzie @ 1:27
Forget Amazon, Facebook & Twitter, the EU has some of the best Biotech to be found anywhere among other hi-tech domains. Just look at Heidelberg, Potsdam, Leipzig with Fraunhoffer, EMBL, Max Planck to name just a few.
briefly @ #224 Monday, March 25th, 2019 – 1:55 pm
If you don’t believe me about the ‘dark elements’ in NSW Labor, ask Emma !
booleanbach says:
Very telling list you put together. US-Amazon, Facebook & Twitter, .EU – Heidelberg, Potsdam, Leipzig with Fraunhoffer, EMBL, Max Planck . Now which is of more benefit to the world ? 😉
On Brexit.
There is a lot of talk about how useless May is, but i have some sympathy for her, and, actually question her motives. 🙂
My understanding is that before the referendum she was a “remainer”. Leadership became available, the “leaver” candidates for leader ran away to hide under the covers. They knew that trying to actually do Brexit was a huge career killing faecal sarnie and had no plan and no clue for actually getting it done.
So, where are we right now?? As i see it, May has presided over a situation that has led to 3 alternatives.
Imminent No Deal Hard Brexit Crash Out if they dont do something, anything else. 🙁
Brexit with a deal that no-one actually wants, or fully supports and stands little chance of being agreed to by the fractured mess that is the UK Parliament. 🙁
Revoke their article 50 proposal to Brexit, maybe after another referendum. 🙂
For a “closet remainer” the third option would be the desirable way to go from here.
Is it possible she is playing them all, and sacrificing what remains of her political career for the greater good of the UK, by setting up the conditions where most people in the UK would see staying in the EU as the best option given the alternatives??
Not going all conspiracy theorist and offend the local God on that score, but on this but i reckon its something worth thinking about.
mundo @ #237 Monday, March 25th, 2019 – 2:15 pm
I’d actually like to him to also call out the SDA for forcing their Kmart employed members into Kmarts preferred super fund rather than letting them choose their own super funds.
Social media and online retail/e-commerce is not AI, although Amazon, Ebay, Facebook and Twitter, etc, employ first generation AI in their platforms.
What is coming is AI from the ground up. The EU has plenty of players in this space, but it is much more fragmented domain.
And just to back that up, here’s a really, really bad example -> Cambridge Analytica Ltd was a UK company…
imacca @ #241 Monday, March 25th, 2019 – 2:26 pm
I think she genuinely wants to deliver on the peoples referendum vote in true democratic fashion, as opposed to the Blairite dictatorial approach.
Among the first to get hit in a recession are always the hairdressers. People think that they can either let their hair grow – or shave it themselves.
Sales of Chocolate & Nail Polish go up (working people give themselves tiny luxuries).
“I’d actually like to him to also call out the SDA for forcing their Kmart employed members into Kmarts preferred super fund rather than letting them choose their own super funds.”
So Rex………….in the lead up to an election campaign your considered advice is you want the LOTO to get people talking about issues that tap right into the Liberal strategy of “UNIONS BOO!!!!!!!!!!!”
Are you posting direct from ScoMo’s “strategy meeting” ????
That’s it, then. 😀
https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2019/mar/22/uri-geller-promises-to-stop-brexit-using-telepathy?CMP=Share_iOSApp_Other