BludgerTrack: 53.3-46.7 to Labor

The BludgerTrack poll aggregate maintains its steady course overall, but with signs of the Greens losing ground.

Another fairly uneventful week in the world of BludgerTrack, which has only nudged 0.1% in favour of Labor on two-party preferred and one on the seat projection (the gain being in New South Wales), despite their one-point improvements in the week’s Newspoll and Essential Research polls. If there’s anything worth noting, it’s that the Greens have fallen below 9%, and One Nation are back up after a recent dip. Both pollsters also produced new numbers for the leadership trends, the only observable movement on which is that Scott Morrison’s net approval is slightly improving, for no immediately obvious reason. Full results through the link below.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

2,561 comments on “BludgerTrack: 53.3-46.7 to Labor”

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  2. ‘Dog’s Breakfast says:
    Sunday, March 17, 2019 at 9:56 am

    This guy with Mike Bowers is pure gold!’

    Starts off funny but gets wearing because The Coach has only has one game plan.

  3. lizzie says:
    Sunday, March 17, 2019 at 9:58 am

    Dee Madigan
    ‏@deemadigan
    15m15 minutes ago

    Time spent in a classroom didn’t seem to do Dan Tehan much good. Last year he thought Africa was a country #insiders

    Is he still Education Minister?

    Nah, he’s the Minister being Educated!

    There may be hope.

  4. Nice final observation from Tingle. Acknowledging Cassidy’s award and thanking him for going to Washington and bringing back the concept for Insiders rather than right wing nut job politics!

  8. There isn’t any point to Talking Pictures for those of us who have already seen the week’s cartoons thanks to BK’s Dawn Patrol.

  9. The intelligence services of New Zealand and the United States — along with those in the United Kingdom, Canada and Australia — enjoy a close working relationship. The so-called Five Eyes routinely share highly classified intelligence about al-Qaeda or the Islamic State, gleaned from their respective networks of surveillance systems and human spies.

    Some experts say the allies need to think about how they can turn their resources toward threats that may reside within their borders but arguably threaten their common security.

    “With its mix of global inspiration and local action, far-right extremism has inspired killings inside the U.S. and every one of the Five Eyes, ranging from mass shootings and bombings to assassinations of political leaders,” said P.W. Singer, a counterterrorism researcher and strategist at New America, a think tank in Washington. “The sad events in New Zealand illustrate why we have to have the political bravery to stop ignoring what is a real terrorist threat that has killed more Americans than even ISIS.”

    https://www.washingtonpost.com/world/national-security/new-zealand-attack-exposes-how-little-the-us-and-its-allies-share-intelligence-on-domestic-terror-threats/2019/03/16/42c14d9c-4744-11e9-8aab-95b8d80a1e4f_story.html?utm_term=.c848ec1c375f

  10. It is looking more and more like the NZ attack was a ‘lone wolf’ attack in the sense that there was only one shooter, therefore I wish to retract what I said about security agencies dropping the ball. Lone wolves are really hard to detect.

  11. Rex Douglas says:
    Sunday, March 17, 2019 at 10:04 am

    sprocket_ @ #1787 Sunday, March 17th, 2019 – 9:49 am

    Maude

    Rex lives in an evidence free zone. Labor will not be underwriting coal fired power stations, and have said so.

    NEW coal fired power stations

    And why would Labor underwrite an existing one? 😆

  12. Same.Same is a religious faith to Rex. Like Catholicism or Islam or Judaism to their adherents. Challenge a tenet with logic and the response is serene non-awareness.

  13. I reckon it’s going to be diabolically hard for the parties of capital to devise a way to control the highly profitable businesses like 4/8chan, reddit, facebook and You Tube who make a lot of money providing a platform for Hate Speech.

  14. The accused mosque massacre shooter was a gun club “fruit loop” who allegedly “shot like he meant it” with high powered rifles in practise with other shooters.

    Brenton Tarrant also allegedly made verbal rants about young skateboarders and his right to carry firearms which left one animal hunter “shaken” after spending a day shooting with the accused.

    But the hunting enthusiast claims nothing was done when he told police in the southern New Zealand city of Dunedin about Tarrant’s odd behaviour.

    https://www.news.com.au/world/pacific/fruit-loop-dunedin-hunters-reveal-how-brenton-tarrant-acted-at-rifle-range/news-story/63b2eef1aac281ddbd9e8526943096e5

  16. The narrative according to the Greens is that it’s Labor which is divided over coal-fired power stations. Yet as we saw on Insiders it’s actually the Coalition parties which are fracturing around the issue.

  17. C@t:

    I was about to say the same thing as P1!

    A Washington Post article I posted yesterday noted that Australia’s media is dominated by Murdoch-owned outlets, and the writer posited this as a factor in our country’s history of rightwing racism.

  18. Player One @ #1814 Sunday, March 17th, 2019 – 10:17 am

    C@tmomma @ #1813 Sunday, March 17th, 2019 – 10:16 am

    I reckon it’s going to be diabolically hard for the parties of capital to devise a way to control the highly profitable businesses like 4/8chan, reddit, facebook and You Tube who make a lot of money providing a platform for Hate Speech.

    Not to mention News Corpse!

    Yes, but, to be fair, Sky After Dark in Australia did pull it’s head in after Adam Giles had Blair Cottrill on (the cognitive dissonance of which really did my head in), and the Murdoch rags in Australia have specialised in ‘vanilla’ racial bigotry. I was really talking about the hard core stuff that the Christchurch mass murderer consumed.

  19. Barney in Cà Mau @ #1815 Sunday, March 17th, 2019 – 10:09 am

    Rex Douglas says:
    Sunday, March 17, 2019 at 10:04 am

    sprocket_ @ #1787 Sunday, March 17th, 2019 – 9:49 am

    Maude

    Rex lives in an evidence free zone. Labor will not be underwriting coal fired power stations, and have said so.

    NEW coal fired power stations

    And why would Labor underwrite an existing one? 😆

    Because mining related unions tell them to.

  22. Confessions @ #1817 Sunday, March 17th, 2019 – 10:20 am

    C@t:

    I was about to say the same thing as P1!

    A Washington Post article I posted yesterday noted that Australia’s media is dominated by Murdoch-owned outlets, and the writer posited this as a factor in our country’s history of rightwing racism.

    Oh yes, there has to be a Godfather, and Murdoch is also that Australia-spawned export to the world. However, as I pointed out to P1, I was specifically referring to the turbo-charged on steroids stuff you find in the bowels of the internet. Tim Berners-Lee just recently said that, on the 30th anniversary of the internet he had a very large hand in creating, that he was both happy and sad at the monster he had created.

    I just think, without resorting to overt censorship, or the heavy-handed approach of the Chinese, that we in the West need to think long and hard about how we deal with radicalisation via the internet.

    As the article from the NYT which I posted earlier posited, it’s likely that the algorithms used by the tech giants need a big tweak.

  23. The slow creep towards electoral reform in the US.

    Colorado has joined a list of states that plan to allocate their electoral votes to whichever candidate wins the nationwide popular vote.

    Gov. Jared Polis (D) signed the measure into law Friday, uniting Colorado with 11 other states and the District of Columbia in the National Popular Vote Interstate Compact, whose members pledge to use their electoral votes on whichever candidate wins the national popular vote.

    The bill will only take effect, however, if the law is passed by states representing at least 270 electoral college votes, which is the amount needed to win the presidency. With the addition of Colorado, that number now sits at 181.

    Other jurisdictions that have enacted the legislation include Rhode Island, Vermont, Hawaii, Connecticut, Maryland, Massachusetts, Washington, New Jersey, New York, Illinois, California and the District of Columbia. New Mexico, whose senate approved the legislation earlier this week, could be the next state to join.

    Because Republican-controlled legislatures haven’t embraced the effort, changing the electoral college delegate procedures in enough states to reach the 270 combined electoral votes needed to become president could be difficult, Reed Hundt, chairman and co-founder of Making Every Vote Count, told The Washington Post last month. The remaining states where the initiative may pass are smaller and left-leaning, he said.

    https://www.washingtonpost.com/politics/2019/03/16/another-state-signs-popular-vote-bill-that-could-decide-presidential-election/?utm_term=.c169b9febc3d

  25. TPOF @ #1816 Sunday, March 17th, 2019 – 10:16 am

    Same.Same is a religious faith to Rex. Like Catholicism or Islam or Judaism to their adherents. Challenge a tenet with logic and the response is serene non-awareness.

    Logic is deducing that by Labor emphasising NEW coal fired power stations they are open to appeasing their donors by underwriting the repair to existing old coal fired power stations

  26. Rex Douglas @ #1820 Sunday, March 17th, 2019 – 10:25 am

    Confessions @ #1820 Sunday, March 17th, 2019 – 10:18 am

    The narrative according to the Greens is that it’s Labor which is divided over coal-fired power stations. Yet as we saw on Insiders it’s actually the Coalition parties which are fracturing around the issue.

    Both are divided. Same same.

    Here Rex. Try educating yourself a little …

    https://cdn.australianlabor.com.au/documents/Climate_change_action_plan_fact_sheet.pdf

    Labor’s plan is far from perfect. But then so is the Green’s. And at least Labor’s plan will actually get implemented.

    Saying “Same same” on this particular subject just makes you look ignorant.

  29. C@t:

    Yes I agree that social media needs to be more accountable. You routinely here of Facebook swiftly taking down videos of mothers breastfeeding, yet 230,000 (or was it million?) people were able to view the Christchurch massacre.

  32. With regard to media laws and the ability of social media platforms to live stream violence, the incoming PM Shorten has questions to answer.

  33. Rex,

    I’m not going to toe our master’s line this time.

    You are an idiot.

    Labor saying there is a role for coal is a simple acknowledgement that to shut down all coal-fired generation today, or even in the next 5 years, would be to shut down the electrical power network.

    That would be a humanitarian disaster. Other liquid fuel production would be severely curtailed. Food distribution networks would fail. Fresh water provision to cities would be impacted. Many thousands of people would die, and those that survived would be miserable. The economy would be flattened. People would have to resort to harvesting and burning wood for heat and cooking, resulting in large-sale environmental destruction.

    Is this what you want?

  34. Confessions @ #1829 Sunday, March 17th, 2019 – 10:31 am

    C@t:

    Yes I agree that social media needs to be more accountable. You routinely here of Facebook swiftly taking down videos of mothers breastfeeding, yet 230,000 (or was it million?) people were able to view the Christchurch massacre.

    Exactly. They need to take a good hard look at themselves. Fcs, how much porn can you google up in a microsecond!?! Or violent beheadings by ISIS!?! Yet fb wants to take down a natural and loving act from it’s pages. As Joe Dirt would say (he’s a movie caricature hero of mine), ‘It’s nuckin’ futs!’

  36. Andy Murray @ #1837 Sunday, March 17th, 2019 – 10:34 am

    Rex,

    I’m not going to toe our master’s line this time.

    You are an idiot.

    Labor saying there is a role for coal is a simple acknowledgement that to shut down all coal-fired generation today, or even in the next 5 years, would be to shut down the electrical power network.

    That would be a humanitarian disaster. Other liquid fuel production would be severely curtailed. Food distribution networks would fail. Fresh water provision to cities would be impacted. Many thousands of people would die, and those that survived would be miserable. The economy would be flattened. People would have to resort to harvesting and burning wood for heat and cooking, resulting in large-sale environmental destruction.

    Is this what you want?

    I want to see Bill Shorten rule out taxpayer money being used to prop up existing coal fired power stations.

  39. Rex:

    If you cannot see the division in the coalition that has played on a megaphone all week, then the problem is yours.

    And besides, I can’t take you seriously after your comments yesterday about banning religious MPs from sitting in parliament. Arguably the most palpably stupid thing you’ve ever said. Under your logic Greens MPs such as Christine Milne, Christabel Charmarette, Jo Valentine and Michael Organ would not have been allowed to seek election.

  41. lizzie says:
    Sunday, March 17, 2019 at 10:33 am

    How to think with Rexlogic.

    No, sorry, my brain can’t cope with it.

    😆 😆 😆 😆 😆 😆 😆 😆 😆 😆 😆 😆 😆 😆 😆

    You are a gem!

  42. Confessions @ #1843 Sunday, March 17th, 2019 – 10:39 am

    Rex:

    If you cannot see the division in the coalition that has played on a megaphone all week, then the problem is yours.

    And besides, I can’t take you seriously after your comments yesterday about banning religious MPs from sitting in parliament. Arguably the most palpably stupid thing you’ve ever said. Under your logic Greens MPs such as Christine Milne, Christabel Charmarette, Jo Valentine and Michael Organ would not have been allowed to seek election.

    Firstly, I agree the coalition is hopelessly divided.

    Secondly. I never called for any politician to be ‘banned’. I called for voters to vote out politicians who protect current exemptions in law related to religion.

  44. Rex Douglas says:
    Sunday, March 17, 2019 at 10:29 am
    TPOF @ #1816 Sunday, March 17th, 2019 – 10:16 am

    Same.Same is a religious faith to Rex. Like Catholicism or Islam or Judaism to their adherents. Challenge a tenet with logic and the response is serene non-awareness.
    ——–
    Logic is deducing that by Labor emphasising NEW coal fired power stations they are open to appeasing their donors by underwriting the repair to existing old coal fired power stations

    __________________________________

    Yes. Religious fervour. Like an apologist saying the jury got it wrong with Pell.

  46. School students should be taken out of school to attend rallies and protests in just the same way they attend any excursion. It is a life skill.

  47. Hear Hear Andy Murray.

    The problem with blind ideologies are simply that – they’re blind to reality.

    This has always been my beef with Greens’ methods (or instruction as to lack of method). Pragmatic they are not. They seem to think that they can simply wipe a slate clean and start again, and bugger all those (which is 99% of the population) who would have their world turned upside down.

    They have much in common with r-w ideologues who will die on a hill in order to preserve a 1950s style stasis in that they are against the ‘process’ of change.

    Process needs time and degrees in order to transform. One wants to burn the house down while the other wishes to freeze the world in time.

  49. I was right about Craig Laundy increasing his margin in Reid last election. A TPP swing of over 1% when the coalition vote went backwards and he had colleagues who lost their seats.

    Henderson piling on him this morning was just spiteful ignorance.

  50. Rex Douglas says:
    Sunday, March 17, 2019 at 10:37 am

    …

    I want to see Bill Shorten rule out taxpayer money being used to prop up existing coal fired power stations.

    You know that will never happen.

    Why? Because it would make you happy! 😆

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