Essential Research: 53-47 to Labor

Another pollster finds an incremental movement to Labor, and gives Bill Shorten an improved set of personal ratings.

The latest fortnightly result from Essential Research follows Newspoll in recording a one-point move to Labor, who now lead 53-47 on two-party preferred. As reported by The Guardian, the primary votes have the Coalition down a point to 37%, Labor up a point to 38%, the Greens down a point to 8% (their weakest result in any poll since September 2016) and One Nation up a point to 7%. The pollster’s leadership ratings (which they normally do monthly, but this is the first set since January) have Scott Morrison steady on 43% approval and up two on disapproval to 41%, Bill Shorten up three to 38% and down three to 44%, and Morrison’s lead as preferred prime minister at 44-31, compared with 42-30 last time.

Other findings relate to climate change and asylum seekers. On the former cont, 62% express belief in climate change caused by human activity, and 51% say Australia is not doing enough to address it. On the latter, 52% believed the government was acting out of genuine concern in reopening Christmas Island while 48% said it was a political ploy (suggesting there was no uncommitted option, which would be unusual for Essential). Also featured was an occasion suite of questions on best party to handle various issues, which seems to have produced typical results, with the Coalition stronger on broader protection and economic management and Labor stronger on the environment, wages, health and education, as well as housing affordability. The full report should be with us later today.

UPDATE: Full report here. The poll was conducted Wednesday to Monday from a sample of 1089.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

1,959 comments on “Essential Research: 53-47 to Labor”

  1. Hi c@t,

    From the article you linked to:

    For example, a core idea behind the theory is that Congress should spend money as it sees fit, and that its only constraints should involve the available real-world resources of labor and materials to carry out those spending ambitions. In this model, inflation is the sign that spending needs to be reined in or taxes raised.

    The second phrase of the first sentence is the killer. How does the government measure these things and choose the allocation of resources?

    MMT is a great macroeconomic theory, but it is not built on solid micro-foundations, and that is where the fallacy of division kicks in. Just because there is spare capacity and unmet demand in the economy doesn’t mean that crude aggregate measures can efficiently unearth the missed opportunities.

    Instead, innovative businesses and entrepreneurs (rhymes with manure) try to make the connections between spare capacity and the wants and preferences of consumers. However, this requires assessing and bearing commercial risks, which the govt isn’t cut out to do. So the whole MMT edifice eventually falls down.

    Note that this isn’t an argument against increased government spending, particularly in certain sectors with low rates of technical innovation, information asymmetries and potential for market failure, or large positive externalities (e.g. education, health, public transport and infrastructure). Rather, it is an acknowledgement of the limits of fiscal policy.

  2. So, after many Countries had grounded 737 Max’s and banned them flying in their airspace, Boeing finally decide that might be a good idea.

    US aircraft manufacturer Boeing has recommended its entire global fleet of 737 MAX aircraft be grounded, after evidence collected from the scene of the fatal Ethiopian Airlines crash was made available to aviation authorities.

    https://www.abc.net.au/news/2019-03-14/donald-trump-boeing-737-max-8-grounded-faa-ethiopian-airlines/10899102

  3. Who cares what Dutton says – he’ll be on the opposition benches soon enough.

    When it comes to taxpayers money being used to rebuild existing coal-fired power stations, it is Bill Shorten who has questions to answer…. ????

  4. Dandy Murray,
    As the article states, Krugman is no fan of MMT. As the article also states, politicians will always put self-interest before rational economic thinking.

    Also, as you say, you would have to have an extremely agile Bureaucracy and Congress, or whatever the smaller nation equivalent is, to be able to monitor human and natural resources and respond accordingly. So as not to let the inflation genie out of the bottle.

  5. He’s not covering himself in glory this election.

    What’s that got to do with controlling the numbers of the right and his ambition?

    More than enough blame will be put on Gladys to convince the Liberals to knife her for Dom. She was so weak she couldn’t stop him arseholing a minister for a shorter commute. She won’t be able to stop him taking her job at a time of his choosing.

  6. By words or with fists, some fossils apparently can’t handle the voices calling for something other than the destructive mediocre business as usual in regard to climate change and the developing climate and ecological disasters.

    Feels like there’s more than a few who have wanted to trade their harsh puerile words for fists and pummeling the Greens, instead of dealing with the corporate interests that fund their political campaigns, over recent times.

    New Zealand in shock after climate change minister attacked in park
    https://www.theguardian.com/world/2019/mar/14/new-zealand-in-shock-after-climate-change-minister-attacked-in-park

    “The New Zealand climate change minister has been attacked while walking to Parliament House, the first physical assault on a politician in the country in more than 10 years.

    James Shaw, who is also the joint leader of the Greens party, was outside the Botanic Gardens in the capital Wellington at 7.30am on Thursday when he was assaulted by an unknown man.”

  7. Boerwar @ #1541 Thursday, March 14th, 2019 – 2:00 pm

    Britain

    Sophocles was onto Brexit around 2.5 millenia ago.

    “τὸ κακὸν δοκεῖν ποτ᾽ ἐσθλὸν τῷδ᾽ ἔμμεν’ ὅτῳ φρένας θεὸς ἄγει πρὸς ἄταν” to mean that “evil appears as good in the minds of those whom Farage and Boris lead to destruction”.

    They’re amateurs at ‘destruction’ compared to Thatcher and Blair.

  8. Sky reporting Gladys summonsed to appear in Court over some development in Sydney. No idea what it’s about, but the timing really couldn’t be worse, could it?

  9. Quoll @ #1561 Thursday, March 14th, 2019 – 2:28 pm

    By words or with fists, some fossils apparently can’t handle the voices calling for something other than the destructive mediocre business as usual in regard to climate change and the developing climate and ecological disasters.

    Feels like there’s more than a few who have wanted to trade their harsh puerile words for fists and pummeling the Greens, instead of dealing with the corporate interests that fund their political campaigns, over recent times.

    New Zealand in shock after climate change minister attacked in park
    https://www.theguardian.com/world/2019/mar/14/new-zealand-in-shock-after-climate-change-minister-attacked-in-park

    “The New Zealand climate change minister has been attacked while walking to Parliament House, the first physical assault on a politician in the country in more than 10 years.

    James Shaw, who is also the joint leader of the Greens party, was outside the Botanic Gardens in the capital Wellington at 7.30am on Thursday when he was assaulted by an unknown man.”

    We on PB are not immune to the irrational and hysterical anti-green aggressors.

  10. “It will certainly be better than giving tax cuts to people who don’t need them.”

    The economic problem is not just that they don’t need it, it’s that they don’t spend it.

    Tax cuts for the rich are a way to suck demand out of an economy. Producing economic stagnation and flat wages growth.

    Increasing inequality driven by the policies of conservative governments is harming the earning potential of the rich. Although it does increase the pool of potential servants.

  11. ratsak @ #1563 Thursday, March 14th, 2019 – 2:19 pm

    He’s not covering himself in glory this election.

    What’s that got to do with controlling the numbers of the right and his ambition?

    More than enough blame will be put on Gladys to convince the Liberals to knife her for Dom. She was so weak she couldn’t stop him arseholing a minister for a shorter commute. She won’t be able to stop him taking her job at a time of his choosing.

    Well, I say, bring it on then because he’s already attracting protests in his new seat and that’s before he’s even made one decision as a putative Premier. And we all know where those decisions will come from, the IPA/Opus Dei unholy duopoly.

    Maybe if you want Labor to win really, really big at the next election, should the Coalition scrape back in and Dom defenestrates Gladys. 😀

  12. Graham @ #1566 Thursday, March 14th, 2019 – 2:35 pm

    “It will certainly be better than giving tax cuts to people who don’t need them.”

    The economic problem is not just that they don’t need it, it’s that they don’t spend it.

    Tax cuts for the rich are a way to suck demand out of an economy. Producing economic stagnation and flat wages growth.

    Increasing inequality driven by the policies of conservative governments is harming the earning potential of the rich. Although it does increase the pool of potential servants.

    The dolt Bowen prefers tax cuts to those who don’t spend rather than a newstart increase to those who do spend. The methodology of a neo-lib.

  13. Rex Douglas @ #1569 Thursday, March 14th, 2019 – 2:34 pm

    Quoll @ #1561 Thursday, March 14th, 2019 – 2:28 pm

    By words or with fists, some fossils apparently can’t handle the voices calling for something other than the destructive mediocre business as usual in regard to climate change and the developing climate and ecological disasters.

    Feels like there’s more than a few who have wanted to trade their harsh puerile words for fists and pummeling the Greens, instead of dealing with the corporate interests that fund their political campaigns, over recent times.

    New Zealand in shock after climate change minister attacked in park
    https://www.theguardian.com/world/2019/mar/14/new-zealand-in-shock-after-climate-change-minister-attacked-in-park

    “The New Zealand climate change minister has been attacked while walking to Parliament House, the first physical assault on a politician in the country in more than 10 years.

    James Shaw, who is also the joint leader of the Greens party, was outside the Botanic Gardens in the capital Wellington at 7.30am on Thursday when he was assaulted by an unknown man.”

    We on PB are not immune to the irrational and hysterical anti-green aggressors.

    And that is NOT a very nice allusion to draw, Rex Douglas. You are equating people on this blog who analyse Greens policies and hold their avatars here to account, with a violent thug!

    I thought you were a reformed poster here, Rex Douglas?

  14. Great to see the Libs embracing cross-cultural relationships…

    “West Australian police are considering a criminal investigation into a senior bureaucrat who allegedly­ rorted more than $500,000 from taxpayers and arranged­ a trip to one of Tokyo’s “soaplands” brothels for two Libera­l MPs visiting from Perth.

    The CCC found Mr Peacock had helped organise a visit to a Tokyo bathhouse for his close friend, then state Liberal upper-house politician Phil Edman, and his colleague Brian Ellis, in 2015.”

    https://www.theaustralian.com.au/news/nation/man-in-japan-allegedly-arranged-brothel-trip-for-liberal-mps/news-story/65e42e4842ddcd6c7fad0eba6d923439

  15. In the last week Fink from the Fund Manager Black Rock has described MMT as “garbage”

    I agree with him

    In fact, I would go further and say it is absolute garbage

  16. ok guys. I have been maintaining the opinion that the chances of an ALP win in the NSW election are pretty slim. That said i have not a lot of interest of knowledge on NSW state politics, me Federal focused.

    But……..things not looking real rosy for the Coalition in NSW? Opinions on the realistic chances of a win there for the ALP anyone??

  17. We should find out soon enough whether the attack was motivated by either personal or political considerations.
    Until then we can all join in condemning the violence.

  18. Labor will have a cimate change minister in the NSW government if elected. The Coalition no doubt wont.Lets see if the NSW public vote against climate change again.

  19. imacca @ #1573 Thursday, March 14th, 2019 – 2:44 pm

    ok guys. I have been maintaining the opinion that the chances of an ALP win in the NSW election are pretty slim. That said i have not a lot of interest of knowledge on NSW state politics, me Federal focused.

    But……..things not looking real rosy for the Coalition in NSW? Opinions on the realistic chances of a win there for the ALP anyone??

    We know of the ‘dark elements’ in both NSW major parties so one hopes for a ‘progressive’ crossbench balance of power.

  20. imacca: It’s really hard to predict with OPV and everything else going on. Gladys and the rest of her team are arrogant, and I think the stadiums debacle has some legs.

    If Labor can get to somewhere between 41-43 seats, that might be a workable minority. If we assume the 3 indies side with them (which seems to be likely if they can beat the Libs on a TPP basis), and we see 3 Greens + 2 SFF, then you’d want the ALP to be sitting on at least 44 seats without the Greens or SFF. 45 would be better.

    That means Labor needs to pickup a minimum of 7-8 seats. 6 seems doable based on the pendulum, but the pendulum is likely not that useful this time around. They also need to not lose any. Hopefully there will be some surprises in Labor’s favour.

    Any thoughts William et al?

  21. Also, as you say, you would have to have an extremely agile Bureaucracy and Congress, or whatever the smaller nation equivalent is, to be able to monitor human and natural resources and respond accordingly. So as not to let the inflation genie out of the bottle.

    Or just not waste resources by inefficiently allocating them.

    Ultimately, you have to ask individuals and firms where they seen additional capacity that matches with supply. Once you do this, you open up opportunities for gaming the system. Game theory tells us that to keep everyone telling the truth, so that you can implement an efficient allocation, you have to design payments that are incentive compatible.

    But game theory also tells us that you can’t have an incentive compatible and budget-balanced preference elicitation mechanism (e.g. auction design) that doesn’t also have someone risk losing by being part of the process. This is the Myerson–Satterthwaite impossibility theorem (for which ). That means that a government-run allocation process either continually injects money into the system, or forces some people to bear the risk of losing out, or inefficiently allocates resources. And this is the case for the ideal bureaucracy.

    Markets, on the other hand, are one appealing solution to this impossibility result that allow individuals to trade the risk of losing out while efficiently allocating risk, and remain budget balanced by the process of financial discipline.

    At least, they do this until information asymmetries and externalities come in to consideration.

  22. Greenies gone back to Labor bashing,

    Because you know it’s all Shortens fault. Not that making protests illegal anything to do with businesses or libs+Nats

  23. Gladys has committed about $28bill to infrastructure. But, seems not to be getting much electoral bang for the bucks atm. She seems to think that will hold the line in Sydney. But, the regions are pretty bolshie and Gladys seems to be spending a lot of time visiting those marginals in the bush. Climate Change seems to be resonating everywhere. But, will it change votes?

    Reports here and elsewhere indicate internal polling has Labor 52/48 in front. But, as always, that can’t really be verified.

    It will be interesting to see whether Turnbull and Federal Leadership issues are important to NSW voters on the day. They were huge drivers of the Victorian landslide.

    It’s close and trending to Labor atm based on what I’ve read.

  24. A couple of PB commenters mentioned that they were booked on the now grounded Boeing 737 Max aircraft. Never fear, alternative air transport has been arranged for your flight.

  25. Sky News understands Craig Laundy has told his colleagues he will not contest his marginal Sydney seat of Reid at the next election. Mr Laundy, who was one of Malcolm Turnbull’s staunchest supporters, reportedly told Prime Minister Scott Morrison of his decision to quit politics on Friday. The backbencher’s decision to quit comes after a slew of high profile Coalition MPs, including Julie Bishop and Christopher Pyne, announced their retirement from politics at the next federal poll.

  26. From GG’s link

    ‘Said Harrison: “We were just discussing in my office actually, how we would describe the current situation. And using good old Cumbrian terminology, we were really torn between whether it’s a pig’s ear, a dog’s dinner or a cat’s arse.”‘

    Sounds like the Morrison Government.

  27. MMT is a great macroeconomic theory, but it is not built on solid micro-foundations

    Building macro-economic models on micro-economic foundations is the fundamental problem with mainstream macro. Particularly given that the micro foundations make assumptions that are wildly out of step with real world conditions. Mainstream macro makes manifestly ridiculous assumptions about economies, like assuming that unemployed people are choosing leisure over work, that banks and money and the financial sector either don’t exist or don’t make a difference to economic outcomes, that market actors have perfect information and act to advance a rationally determined concept of utility, that the inherent tendency of an economy is towards equilibrium and stability, that financial markets are inherently efficient at pricing risk, that the supply of labour automatically creates demand for that labour, that fiscal policy doesn’t work because people assume that increased government spending today will inevitably require higher taxes later so they reduce their spending today in order to save money to pay higher taxes in the future.

    Another problem is fallacy of composition errors that are caused by assuming that you can model what happens at the micro level and extrapolate that to a coherent description of an entire system.

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