Essential Research: 53-47 to Labor

Another pollster finds an incremental movement to Labor, and gives Bill Shorten an improved set of personal ratings.

The latest fortnightly result from Essential Research follows Newspoll in recording a one-point move to Labor, who now lead 53-47 on two-party preferred. As reported by The Guardian, the primary votes have the Coalition down a point to 37%, Labor up a point to 38%, the Greens down a point to 8% (their weakest result in any poll since September 2016) and One Nation up a point to 7%. The pollster’s leadership ratings (which they normally do monthly, but this is the first set since January) have Scott Morrison steady on 43% approval and up two on disapproval to 41%, Bill Shorten up three to 38% and down three to 44%, and Morrison’s lead as preferred prime minister at 44-31, compared with 42-30 last time.

Other findings relate to climate change and asylum seekers. On the former cont, 62% express belief in climate change caused by human activity, and 51% say Australia is not doing enough to address it. On the latter, 52% believed the government was acting out of genuine concern in reopening Christmas Island while 48% said it was a political ploy (suggesting there was no uncommitted option, which would be unusual for Essential). Also featured was an occasion suite of questions on best party to handle various issues, which seems to have produced typical results, with the Coalition stronger on broader protection and economic management and Labor stronger on the environment, wages, health and education, as well as housing affordability. The full report should be with us later today.

UPDATE: Full report here. The poll was conducted Wednesday to Monday from a sample of 1089.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

1,959 comments on “Essential Research: 53-47 to Labor”

  1. He should commit to commentate on Poll Bludger…

    “Craig Laundy is considering offers from TV networks to serve as an election night commentator, infuriating federal government colleagues who say his immediate priority should be announcing whether he will recontest his at-risk inner-Sydney seat of Reid.”

    https://www.theaustralian.com.au/national-affairs/libs-in-dark-as-mp-craig-laundy-courts-tv-limelight/news-story/2bbad004e3452219941794def5ab8cc9

  2. I hardly think that stating the bleeding obvious is evidence of a Machiavellian intent on Shorten’s part, David.

    You seem to be turning from the Liberal to the green camp.

    A bitter green.

    Shall we call you Endive from now on?

  3. From reports it seems that the only thing stopping Laundy announcing that he’s leaving is Morrison, so they should be directing their anger at him.

  4. My tweet reply to Van Badham

    These are not lunatics. These are White Supremacist Terrorists. Please be careful with your labels at this time. More than one, and based on religion and race. How would we call it if it was a Muslim group and a church? #ChristchurchMosque

  5. Gorks @ #1947 Thursday, March 14th, 2019 – 11:34 pm

    Sad to see how people get suckered in by selective quoting of Shorten. If you have actually seen the full quote you would realise he is supportive of students and puts the boot into Coalition for missing in action on climate change.

    This is mostly spread by Greens supporters. No wonder the party is going down the gurgler.

    The Greens do what the Greens do. Like the scorpion crossing the flooded river on the back of the frog.

  6. If FA was charged with assault of a minor and found guilty, would he be guilty of a crime with a penalty of minimum 12 months and then be ineligible to sit in parliament?

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