Essential Research: 53-47 to Labor

Another pollster finds an incremental movement to Labor, and gives Bill Shorten an improved set of personal ratings.

The latest fortnightly result from Essential Research follows Newspoll in recording a one-point move to Labor, who now lead 53-47 on two-party preferred. As reported by The Guardian, the primary votes have the Coalition down a point to 37%, Labor up a point to 38%, the Greens down a point to 8% (their weakest result in any poll since September 2016) and One Nation up a point to 7%. The pollster’s leadership ratings (which they normally do monthly, but this is the first set since January) have Scott Morrison steady on 43% approval and up two on disapproval to 41%, Bill Shorten up three to 38% and down three to 44%, and Morrison’s lead as preferred prime minister at 44-31, compared with 42-30 last time.

Other findings relate to climate change and asylum seekers. On the former cont, 62% express belief in climate change caused by human activity, and 51% say Australia is not doing enough to address it. On the latter, 52% believed the government was acting out of genuine concern in reopening Christmas Island while 48% said it was a political ploy (suggesting there was no uncommitted option, which would be unusual for Essential). Also featured was an occasion suite of questions on best party to handle various issues, which seems to have produced typical results, with the Coalition stronger on broader protection and economic management and Labor stronger on the environment, wages, health and education, as well as housing affordability. The full report should be with us later today.

UPDATE: Full report here. The poll was conducted Wednesday to Monday from a sample of 1089.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

1,959 comments on “Essential Research: 53-47 to Labor”

  1. Incredible.
    Despite news reports about the country being in per capita recession, this truly awful Gov’t is still regarded by people to be better than Labor at economic management.

  2. Polling for the Liblings also slides, predictably. This rating will likely be better than the actual election result. If voters want change – which they do – why would they vote Libling? Of course, they won’t. The Libling brand is seriously impaired. Hopefully, their prefs will elect Labor Senators this time, making it easier for Labor to implement its platform once in office.

  3. From the previous thread:

    jeffemu @ #927 Monday, March 11th, 2019 – 10:56 pm

    Just saw on the late night news a report on the Moomba Festival.

    I reside on the coast Central Qld.

    Wasn’t it great to see the Victorian Police marching with ‘those’ black african gang member types. Broad smiles all round and having a lot of fun.

    Eat shit Potato Head. Gawd I want to see the prick voted out.

    You and the rest of Australia!

    Have you also noticed how Bill Shorten and Labor are being seen with members of the South Sudanese community too?

  4. briefly,
    The South Sudanese community in NSW are just gorgeous! No crime gangs here. They are also very ambitious for their children and their community. I think we’ll be seeing a lot more from them in all avenues of Australian life as time goes on.

    I wouldn’t be surprised if they become integral fixtures of the basketball and volleyball teams for Australia as well with those long legs!

  5. Crony capitalism using the public purse, NSW Liberal style:

    The Tripps soon became friends with Mr Ayres, the member for Penrith, and his partner Marise Payne, now the Foreign Affairs Minister. In June 2013, Mrs Tripp attended a fundraising dinner to celebrate Mr Ayres’ third year in Parliament, with a spot at the political couple’s table. And in 2014 the Tripps hosted Ms Payne’s 50th birthday party at Fernhill free of charge.

    But the Tripps were unable to make a go of the property. They left Fernhill at the start of 2016 and, they say, from this point no longer held a financial interest in the property.

    They remained the registered proprietors of Fernhill, and it was purchased by the state government in March 2018 for $27.25 million – described by Mr Ayres as a “coup” for western Sydney.

    https://www.smh.com.au/national/nsw/questions-raised-over-links-between-stuart-ayres-and-27m-sydney-estate-20190310-p51316.html

  6. Gooo news to wake up to after Labour Day here in Victoria. I was just thinking of a time when pollsters didn’t do TPP. And the reports were just primaries.

    50 Newspolls but it must be close to 100 of all comers since last poll that had Coalition in front

  7. It is emerging in the upcoming NSW State election that Climate Change, and voting for a government that will deal with it aggressively, is the front of mind issue for voters:

    Climate change is a key election issue for most people in NSW, polling shows, as the environment emerges as a more pressing concern for voters than hospitals, schools and public transport.

    Exclusive Herald polling shows that 57.5 per cent of voters say they will be swayed by climate change and environmental protection when deciding who to vote for on March 23.

    https://www.smh.com.au/politics/nsw/climate-change-top-of-voters-minds-in-nsw-election-20190311-p513bb.html

  8. Good Morning

    Briefly

    I welcome the change that is coming.
    I just think you don’t see how much change is coming.

    Neoliberalism is dead. See Wayne Swans comments and Sally McManus.
    This is the change that is coming. I just wish you would stop this libling nonsense.

    That’s because that’s what it is. No matter what else you think of the Greens they are very different in policy from the LNP. As one example you just relayed shows.

    Your Liblings nonsense is just as bad if not worse than Rex with the same same nonsense.

  9. The Government has long planned to counter the savagely gloomy appraisals of Labor policy and the future in general with a big, happy news extravaganza — the April 2 Budget.

    The negativity was to be contrasted with positive outlooks on the economy, employment and wages.

    However, the slowdown in national economic growth and global disruptions, plus an absence of guarantees that stunted wage growth will improve, are making it harder for Mr Morrison and Treasurer Josh Frydenberg to pump out cheery optimism.

    The gloom could see even bigger cross benches in Parliament.

    …The central question for the Coalition now is: What will work?

    https://www.news.com.au/finance/work/leaders/scott-morrisons-scare-stories-are-pushing-him-further-away-from-the-winning-vote/news-story/9b96c7c9f55b633cd10bebad252b2f2d

  10. C@t,

    Re Dutton, Labor is very very serious about Dickson. It’s not often a Party flies a candidate interstate to hold a fund raiser in the seat of a senior member like Albo, with every cent going to the visiting member’s campaign. Ali France is also a very impressive candidate.

  11. Modern coal-fired power stations emit higher levels of dangerous pollutants known as “ultrafine dust particles” than urban road traffic, and can even redistribute rainfall patterns, researchers from Australia and Germany have found.

    While road traffic has long been considered the main source of ultrafine particles (UFP) in urban areas, the 15-year study showed that coal-fired power stations clearly emit larger amounts of UFPs through filtering technology of exhaust gas.

    UFP concentrations in the atmosphere have increased continuously since modern coal-fired power stations were commissioned in many locations around the world, the study published in the Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society showed.

    https://thenewdaily.com.au/life/science/2019/03/11/coal-fired-power-plants/

  12. lizzie

    I heard that on ABC radio yesterday – now where would the Nationals like to build these? – we’ll make sure they have to tell the locals that their rainfall may decrease as a result.

  13. The “Dickson” moment if it happens on election night will be sweet – in a positive sense with Ali France elected.

    The “Warringah” moment could also be sweet, but not so much because of Zali Steggall winning.

  14. All I can say regarding Dutton is I hope he gets booted from parliament and I am glad GetUp! and the unions are also working hard for that to happen.

    I have not heard much about any of the candidates except that there is a concerted effort to see the back of him. This is where I hope Labor The Greens and others are working to not give Dutton a scintilla of a chance at reelection.

    I think the odds are good especially as there has not been news of fighting between other candidates like there has been in Kooyong

  15. Rampant tree clearing is undoing climate policy too. Much of the federal government’s A$2.55 billion Emissions Reduction Fund has gone towards tree planting. But it would take almost this entire sum just to replace the trees cleared in Queensland since 2012.

    In 2019, Australians might reasonably expect that our relatively wealthy and well-educated country has moved beyond a frontier-style reliance on continued deforestation, and we would do well to better acknowledge and learn lessons from Indigenous Australians with respect to their land management practices.

    Yet the periodic weakening of land clearing laws in many parts of Australia has accelerated the problem. The negative impacts on industry, society and wildlife are numerous and well established. They should not be ignored.

    https://theconversation.com/to-reduce-fire-risk-and-meet-climate-targets-over-300-scientists-call-for-stronger-land-clearing-laws-113172?utm_source=twitter&utm_medium=twitterbutton

  16. Two comments on Barnyards spiel about why King Coal is better than plebeian renewables.

    1. We should follow the smart Germans, who are building coal fired power stations.

    What Barnyard neglects to say is the prime reason for this is their decision to close down the nuclear plants, and that innovative renewable solutions are also getting massive investment.

    2. Solar panels are bad, because the subsidies for those who pay to put them up (airhead Sam Armytage aside) are paid for by those who don’t.

    It’s akin to buying a cash handout by buying shares with franked dividends. Everyone else pays for the largesse to the lucky few.

  17. Senator Jordon Steele-John

    In response to @AustralianStory Health Minister @GregHuntMP “has approved the building of a memorial garden to honour thalidomide victims” ‍♂️

    NOTGOODENOUGH

    Survivors don’t want a garden. They want compensation & apology. Do the right thing, listen & act #auspol #greens

  18. The news.com.au article by Malcolm Farr is perceptive, how can the government pivot from a fear campaign to a friendly budget with tax cuts for everyone?

    Earlier it was said the Coalition leadership believes that the messaging is right, perhaps the backbench might agree but think that the leadership isn’t up to it.

  19. Good morning Dawn Patrollers

    Here’s Katharine Murphy’s take on the latest Essential poll.
    https://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/2019/mar/12/labor-comfortably-ahead-of-coalition-in-guardian-essential-poll
    David Crowe explains what Morrison is doing trying to hose down the split and rancour within the Nats. And his own party doesn’t think much of them either!
    https://www.smh.com.au/politics/federal/scott-morrison-slaps-down-barnaby-joyce-on-coal-in-damaging-coalition-split-on-energy-20190311-p513a8.html
    Michael Koziol gives us an example as Liberal MPs have spoken out en masse to ridicule their Nationals colleagues over a push for a government-backed coal power station in Queensland, blasting the idea as unworkable and economically illiterate.
    https://www.smh.com.au/politics/federal/lonely-minority-whistling-dixie-liberals-ridicule-nationals-over-coal-power-20190311-p513dc.html
    Paul Kelly writes that Barnaby Joyce has defied the PM on coal, rejected the Libs on climate and sunk Coalition unity ahead of key elections.
    https://www.outline.com/cbAvtv
    Michelle Grattan says coal has turned lumpy for Morrison and the Nationals. She concludes by saying that once again, raging energy and climate wars are burning out of control in government ranks.
    https://theconversation.com/view-from-the-hill-coal-turns-lumpy-for-scott-morrison-and-the-nationals-113282
    Phil Coorey reckons the Nationals could ruin Morrison’s last shot at the election.
    https://www.outline.com/fMttC5
    Paul Bongiorno says Joyce wants to blow up the joint!
    https://thenewdaily.com.au/news/national/2019/03/11/barnaby-joyce-coal/
    Tony Wright unpacks a short history of lunacy in the Country Party. It’s not at all kind!
    https://www.smh.com.au/politics/federal/barnaby-v-whatsisname-a-short-history-of-lunacy-in-the-country-party-20190311-p513cm.html
    Peter van Onselen says that the polls have crushes the Coalition’s confidence.
    https://www.outline.com/prErT3
    The Australian says that the latest accounts released by GetUp will send chills down the spines of Scott Morrison’s hard-right federal colleagues.
    https://www.outline.com/SL3GZS
    Greg Jericho shows us how since the Coalition won government in 2013 our living standards have gone down.
    https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2019/mar/12/since-the-coalition-won-government-in-2013-our-living-standards-have-gone-down
    Michael Pascoe tells us how Morrison could save himself by building a better case for wags growth.
    https://thenewdaily.com.au/news/national/2019/03/11/building-wages-scott-morrison/
    A new survey of business leaders suggests they are expecting Labor to win the election and don’t expect key budget measures to be implemented.
    https://www.outline.com/DbuBXd
    The AFR explains how the AFP bungled the Michael Cranston investigation. Looks like a bit of a shocker!
    https://www.outline.com/RshPnX
    Jacob Saulwick reports that the Berejiklian government’s $27 million purchase of a historic western Sydney estate whose registered proprietors were close friends with minister Stuart Ayres is triggering questions from the Labor opposition.
    https://www.smh.com.au/national/nsw/questions-raised-over-links-between-stuart-ayres-and-27m-sydney-estate-20190310-p51316.html
    Interestingly Alexandra Smith tells us that climate change is a key election issue for most people in NSW, polling shows, as the environment emerges as a more pressing concern for voters than hospitals, schools and public transport.
    https://www.smh.com.au/politics/nsw/climate-change-top-of-voters-minds-in-nsw-election-20190311-p513bb.html
    The chums are at it again as NSW Treasurer Dominic Perrottet did not personally declare a donation from his former law firm, which has donated thousands of dollars to the NSW Liberals and receives significant government contracts.
    https://www.smh.com.au/politics/nsw/perrottet-did-not-personally-declare-donation-from-former-employer-20190311-p513d0.html
    Labor will commit the full implementation of all but one of the 76 recommendations of the Hayne royal commission, and flag an overhaul of the financial regulatory system.
    https://www.outline.com/JmnJU8
    Warwick McFadyen writes about how the Pell case confronts us with the workings of justice and truth.
    https://www.smh.com.au/national/pell-case-confronts-us-with-the-workings-of-justice-and-truth-20190311-p5138h.html
    Father Frank Brennan’s position on the Pell case is a staggering admission that the Catholic Church has learnt nothing – despite the Royal Commission – about child sexual abuse, its aftermath and its effects on victims, families and communities, writes Dr Jennifer Wilson.
    https://independentaustralia.net/life/life-display/defending-pell-fr-brennan-and-his-catholic-church-have-learnt-nothing,12456
    Nicole Hasham explores Abbott’s statement the coal-fired electricity was cheaper than that from renewables.
    https://www.smh.com.au/politics/federal/coal-or-renewables-which-is-cheaper-20190311-p513cs.html
    Jenna Price posits that the Emma Husar case has done all women a favour.
    https://www.smh.com.au/national/emma-husar-this-horrible-case-has-done-all-women-a-favour-20190310-p5135s.html
    The reputation of the Australian Border Force has been struck another blow with the leaking of Defence Department documents revealing that it cannot meet its sea patrol targets and Defence has had to pick up the slack.
    https://www.smh.com.au/national/border-force-shortfalls-unfairly-pinned-on-a-king-without-a-kingdom-20190310-p5136a.html
    David Wroe reports that the United States has urged the Morrison government to “take responsibility” for Australian Islamic State fighters captured in the Middle East and bring them home to prosecute or rehabilitate them.
    https://www.smh.com.au/politics/federal/take-responsibility-for-your-islamic-state-fighters-america-urges-morrison-government-20190311-p5139q.html
    Elizabeth Knight reports that financial institutions are dragging the chain on fixing fees for no service compensation and ASIC is not impressed.
    https://www.smh.com.au/business/banking-and-finance/pesky-regulator-crashes-the-banks-pr-party-20190311-p513c1.html
    The SMH editorial states that the Coalition’s in-principle support for all 22 recommendations of a special inquiry into widespread theft of vulnerable workers’ wages is welcome. It says the worst cases of wage theft deserve prison sentences.
    https://www.smh.com.au/business/small-business/worst-cases-of-wage-theft-deserve-prison-sentence-20190311-p513an.html
    Peter Hartcher says that the caliphate is dead. For now.
    https://www.smh.com.au/national/the-caliphate-is-dead-for-now-20190311-p51385.html
    Boeing’s share price plunged 11 per cent on Monday, likely to be its biggest daily fall in nearly two decades, as more nations grounded all 737 Max 8s.
    https://www.smh.com.au/world/africa/more-nations-ground-boeing-737-max-8s-as-black-box-is-found-after-ethiopia-crash-20190312-p513f7.html
    A new petition is urging state and federal governments to rein in Australia’s rampant land clearing, which worsens the risk of bushfires and threatens to undo the work of the Emissions Reduction Fund.
    https://theconversation.com/to-reduce-fire-risk-and-meet-climate-targets-over-300-scientists-call-for-stronger-land-clearing-laws-113172
    AMP is a step closer to court after the financial services company raised the white flag over a battle to keep documents secret.
    https://www.outline.com/mJnAnX
    Nick Miller looks at what will be crunch week for Brexit.
    https://www.smh.com.au/world/europe/it-s-brexit-crunch-week-here-s-your-explainer-on-what-s-happening-and-why-20190312-p513fb.html
    The internet is now an arena for conflict, and we’re all caught up in it says cyber security expert Tom Sear.
    https://theconversation.com/the-internet-is-now-an-arena-for-conflict-and-were-all-caught-up-in-it-101736
    Will “Medicare for All” be the Democrats’ weapon in 2020?
    https://www.smh.com.au/world/north-america/in-democrats-medicare-for-all-battle-cry-gop-sees-2020-weapon-20190312-p513fn.html
    Trump is again asking Democrats to back his plan to use federal money to spur $US1 trillion in projects, even though it crashed and burned last year.
    https://www.outline.com/kmjE5z

    Cartoon Corner

    David Rowe channels MAFS.

    A cracker form Cathy Wilcox.

    From the prolific Matt Golding.








    Mark David and Joyce’s rekindled leadership ambitions.

    John Shakespeare and Barnaby.

    Sean Leahy with Coalition relationship problems.

    Peter Broelman gives Abbott a good serve.

    Andrew Dyson on the “end” of ISIS.

    Zanetti in full obsessive flight!

    Johannes Leak gets this one right.
    https://cdn.newsapi.com.au/image/v1/3224529130efd79172ce3cbaca0b03bd

    From the US – not in the same street as our cartoonists!




  20. Good Morning and many thanks to BK for the Dawn Patrol.

    Following on from AR’s info regarding Javascript and AFR the following may be of interest to those wishing to view the turgid prose from The Australian – The Daily Telegraph – The New York Times etc.

    Anti-Paywall for Chrome

    File was uploaded successfuly on TinyUpload.com server.
    You can download it from address:
    http://s000.tinyupload.com/?file_id=49534113298022429821

    and for Firefox

    Anti-Paywall

    http://s000.tinyupload.com/?file_id=90059208085734119077

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  21. Thanks BK. The Coalition is unravelling; self interest and fear of defeat are a powerful influence. If Labor stays disciplined it will win on current policy.

    That being said, I hope Labor does announce a comprehensive policy on climate change. The danger it poses is real, as this summer has shown. With heatwaves in Qld lasting well into March, voters will be reminded.

    Action on renewable power now will virtually take care of itself as long as government does not interfere. Simple economics guarantees the answer. Government is needed to help workers and regions transition. But land use (clearing) and transport need policy work at Federal level. There are a lot of inner urban seats Labor could keep or win back if it gets this right.

  22. Lizzie
    “Yet the periodic weakening of land clearing laws in many parts of Australia has accelerated the problem. The negative impacts on industry, society and wildlife are numerous and well established. They should not be ignored.”

    Qld and NSW state governments have been caving in to small landholder groups on this for as long as I have been working. Before climate change they failed to enforce biodiversity laws.

    The recent NSW court decision on the Gloucester coal mine may also be relevant. The principle relates to the atmosphere, not coal mines only. So it could apply to any activity requiring legal permission that causes increased GHG emissions. Large scale land clearing increases emissions, and reduces absorptive capacity. Why should there be a “right to pollute” if it is harmful?

  23. Thanks BK. Looking at the morning roundup, the coalition is imploding. A party room built on greed and self interest will not hang together when individual survival depends on backing different policies. So from here Labor jus5 needs to stay disciplined (and humble) to win.

    On climate change Labor has correctly realised that renewable energy will happen naturally as long as government does not interfere. The role of government is to help workers and regions transition. Yet I hope Labor does more than that. Policy and change are needed on land use and transport. Labor could also retain or gain a lot of inner urban seats with the right policy action here. Transport action wont even require extra money. Redistributing funds away from current questionable projects will generate plenty to build what is needed.

  24. Definitely name recognition rules at present.

    Ryan StruykVerified account@ryanstruyk
    6h6 hours ago
    New Monmouth 2020 poll just out:

    Biden 28%
    Sanders 25%
    Harris 10%
    Warren 8%
    O’Rourke 6%
    Booker 5%
    Klobuchar 3%
    Castro 1%
    de Blasio 1%
    Hickenlooper 1%
    Yang 1%
    Bennet <1%
    Buttigieg <1%
    Gabbard <1%
    Gillibrand <1%
    Inslee <1%
    McAuliffe <1%
    Williamson <1%
    Bullock 0%
    Delaney 0%

  25. “67 days to go. Change is coming.”

    More than a change – it is going to be a https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=W5D07c0dJuQ

    The recriminations after the NSW election will see the end of the coalition (if barnyard doesn’t to that this week – obviously he feels the libs are a millstone for the nats without realising it cuts both ways – their latest stupidity on coal will see many metro and non-coal regional seats go to labor and indies).

    I was expecting the coalition to shred itself after the election, but it looks as though they’ll do it before.

    Disunity is death and good riddance to the lot of them.

  26. Given that the TTP is now resting comfortably above the high water mark of 53% (and will go higher on the back of both the hopeless incompetence of the GRASPers and the panic of Gina’s COALition Beasty Boys), I note that ScuMo’s PPM is slipping.

    I presume that the persistent PPM in favour of the patently pathetic ScuMo over the continuously competent Bill Brand (with added vitamin XX) will reverse after the Ides of May. Any predictions from the Bludgerati of where the PPM will go? I suspect that the Pegnathrex* effect will keep Bill’s advantage to single figures even against ScuMo as OL (more if it’s Fryboy), at least until the effect of having Penny Wong as chief eminence grise in power percolates through the Mordor murk, whereupon it will grow, like a long slow wave, to crash on the shores of Entitlement.

    * Pegnathrex is a character from a popular comix book series, about a plucky tribe from ancient Gall, who with the help of their Black Wiggle, Docbobredux, have discovered a secret formula of magic herbs (most of which bear a strong resemblance to Cannabis sativa ) and privilege (rendered safe by saying the magic word Adani at every opportunity) which allows them to retain their purity despite the family trust. Pegnathrex fell in the cauldron as a nymph and now can’t abide that Billious feeling that one gets when backing the wrong horse.

  27. I think we got an early look at the Liberals’ latest scare tactic on the Bolt Report last night. Michael Kroger was insistent that Labor is going to include the family home in the capital gains legislation. “Everybody knows that” he kept repeating. Quite worked up he was.

    The sheer panic in the Liberal camp is becoming more and more obvious by the day.

  28. Cheryl Kernot
    ‏@cheryl_kernot
    2h2 hours ago

    Tim Wilson on @RNBreakfast just referred to Barnaby’s “electorate in Qld.”
    Adding to my not too bright file. #auspol

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