Essential Research: 53-47 to Labor

Another pollster finds an incremental movement to Labor, and gives Bill Shorten an improved set of personal ratings.

The latest fortnightly result from Essential Research follows Newspoll in recording a one-point move to Labor, who now lead 53-47 on two-party preferred. As reported by The Guardian, the primary votes have the Coalition down a point to 37%, Labor up a point to 38%, the Greens down a point to 8% (their weakest result in any poll since September 2016) and One Nation up a point to 7%. The pollster’s leadership ratings (which they normally do monthly, but this is the first set since January) have Scott Morrison steady on 43% approval and up two on disapproval to 41%, Bill Shorten up three to 38% and down three to 44%, and Morrison’s lead as preferred prime minister at 44-31, compared with 42-30 last time.

Other findings relate to climate change and asylum seekers. On the former cont, 62% express belief in climate change caused by human activity, and 51% say Australia is not doing enough to address it. On the latter, 52% believed the government was acting out of genuine concern in reopening Christmas Island while 48% said it was a political ploy (suggesting there was no uncommitted option, which would be unusual for Essential). Also featured was an occasion suite of questions on best party to handle various issues, which seems to have produced typical results, with the Coalition stronger on broader protection and economic management and Labor stronger on the environment, wages, health and education, as well as housing affordability. The full report should be with us later today.

UPDATE: Full report here. The poll was conducted Wednesday to Monday from a sample of 1089.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

1,959 comments on “Essential Research: 53-47 to Labor”

  1. Given all of the economic news I can’t believe they are thinking of a wage freeze.

    Perhaps before he splurges it on voter bribes he might have a chat with Christian Porter who, as WA Treasurer, thought a mining boom would go on forever and spent accordingly.

    Porter probably doesn’t remember back that far.
    They could decide on a wage freeze offset by tax cuts.

  2. Report of parliamentary inquiry into the franchising sector has been released.

    https://www.theage.com.au/business/small-business/parliamentary-inquiry-calls-for-total-overhaul-of-franchise-sector-20190314-p5143e.html

    The parliamentary inquiry into the $170 billion franchising sector has called for a total overhaul of Australia’s franchising system in a damning report released on Thursday.

    The bipartisan report calls for new laws, greater enforcement powers and penalties for the regulator and a suite of changes to the franchising code.

  3. Protecting A Predator: Elites Open A New Front In The Culture Wars:

    https://newmatilda.com/2019/03/14/protecting-predator-elites-open-new-front-culture-wars/

    The real tragedy in this unhappy affair is how profit-driven voices displaced survivors. This moment was an opportunity for reconciliation, reform and healing. Even recognising that an appeal might exonerate Pell, leaders and pundits ought to have extended basic courtesies to survivors and owned up to some hard truths about clerical abuse.

    Instead, the interests of survivors took a back seat as commentators centred themselves and diverted all our resources onto the perpetrator. The victims of systemic abuse are many and the need for reform urgent. If we can glean any lesson from this saga it is that the voiceless are often the most deserving of our attention and the least likely to receive it.

  4. Has there been any mention on when the RC will release details it heard in relation to Pell?

    Do they need to wait for the appeal process to be completed?

  5. Ex – NSA John Schindlers latest :

    The fall of Paul John Manafort Jr.

    Last week the former Trump campaign manager caught a break. Now his luck has run out

    Counting time served, Manafort now faces 7.5 years in the Federal penitentiary. Since he will celebrate his 70th birthday in a couple weeks and he appeared in court in a wheelchair, it’s possible that Manafort will never see freedom again.

    Neither is this necessarily the end of Manafort’s legal woes in New York, and more charges may be coming – none of which President Trump can pardon him for, since these are state, not Federal, crimes. Therefore, it seems increasingly likely that Paul Manafort may die in jail thanks to his 2016 association with Donald J. Trump.

    Everyone on Team Trump should consider the fate of Paul Manafort as a possible preview of their own. Your legal exposure may be far greater than you think, and if the Feds don’t get you, state-level courts will. There are no exits or off-ramps left for those who broke laws to put Donald J. Trump in the Oval Office.

    MORE : https://spectator.us/fall-paul-john-manafort-jr/

  6. “Any relationship between those things and reality are rare and completely accidental.”

    Lol! ratties inner bitch coming out to play then. 🙂 Luv it.

  7. Big business, Morrison and the MSM are squealing like stuck pigs over a “ living wage “ just as Shorten knew they would.

    On the other side is the ACTU doing its job and standing up for workers.

    Up in the bleachers are the greens howling their usual cry of impotence. The very same party that could not even be bothered to lodge a submission for the 2018 minimum wage case.

    In the middle of it all is labor just sitting back taking its time and presenting itself as the sensible option.

    It is all too easy for Shorten.

  8. UNCONFIRMED at this stage : so grain of salt till more is known

    Beto O’Rourke announces he’s running for president — in text message to local news station

    Following months of intense speculation, Democrat Beto O’Rourke told El Paso television station KTSM via text Wednesday that he is running for president in 2020, the station reported.

    The El Paso station said he will publicly announce his presidential bid Thursday morning. O’Rourke and his advisers did not immediately respond to messages seeking confirmation of the KTSM report.

    https://www.rawstory.com/2019/03/beto-orourke-announces-hes-running-president-text-message-local-news-statio/

  9. Matt Whitaker ‘blatantly lied to Congress’ — and is now a witness in obstruction of justice investigations into Trump

    House Judiciary Committee Chairman Rep. Jerry Nadler (D-NY) said that former acting Attorney General Matt Whitaker admitted that Trump obstructed justice.

    Rep. Nadler laid out how Trump interfered in investigations that involved himself, his associates, and his family. Trump tried to get US attorneys who are investigating him fired and replaced with allies. These are textbook attempts to obstruct justice. Trump abused his power as president to try to get investigations into his criminal behavior shut down.

    Matt Whitaker’s testimony is that Trump committed impeachable offenses. The House has direct evidence that has not present previously.

    https://www.politicususa.com/2019/03/13/matt-whitaker-trump.html

  10. I’ve also heard this morning that Liberal polling in NSW is showing the TPP is closer to 52/48 to Labor and still moving up.

    I could have told you this about a month ago but I didn’t want the Liberals who read this blog to find out. 🙂

  11. “In the middle of it all is labor just sitting back taking its time and presenting itself as the sensible option”

    Yup, ALP well set to take a position to the right of the ACTU and left of the RWNJobbies.

    Was surprised at the hospitality mob calling for a wage freeze though?? Over reach in trying to scare the ALP off restoring penalty rates i guess. Not a good look to be lobbying that the way the lead up to the election is going.

  12. Anything Morrison does now re “ wages policy “ will be targeted as too little too late catch up by labor especially after his gloom and doom hyperventilation over the Shorten living wage proposal.

    All too easy for Shorten.

  13. imacca @ #1355 Thursday, March 14th, 2019 – 12:15 pm

    “In the middle of it all is labor just sitting back taking its time and presenting itself as the sensible option”

    Yup, ALP well set to take a position to the right of the ACTU and left of the RWNJobbies.

    Was surprised at the hospitality mob calling for a wage freeze though?? Over reach in trying to scare the ALP off restoring penalty rates i guess. Not a good look to be lobbying that the way the lead up to the election is going.

    Looks to me like the business community can smell ScaMo’s defeat and are starting to run around like headless chooks. 😆

  14. doyley says:
    Thursday, March 14, 2019 at 12:06 pm
    Big business, Morrison and the MSM are squealing like stuck pigs over a “ living wage “ just as Shorten knew they would.

    On the other side is the ACTU doing its job and standing up for workers.

    Up in the bleachers are the greens howling their usual cry of impotence. The very same party that could not even be bothered to lodge a submission for the 2018 minimum wage case.

    In the middle of it all is labor just sitting back taking its time and presenting itself as the sensible option.

    It is all too easy for Shorten.

    In a context where real wages have been static or falling ever since the LNP were elected, they’re now associating themselves with further wage cuts. They are declaring that their re-election means wages will fall again. They’re really actively campaigning on the point. In effect they’re arguing for the election of a Labor Government. The Liberals have been doing a lot of this lately….on climate change and energy, on medivac, on taxes and now on household incomes.

    They have got themselves into a completely untenable position.

    Back in the day, during the 50s and 60s, Menzies won elections by showing the Liberals could increase real wages most of the time. These days, they’re trying to argue they should win elections because they can reduce real wages. It’s no wonder at all that the broad mass of voters have had it with the Liberals.

  15. So Matt Whitaker stopped to smell the roses in the Rose Garden on the way out the door, eh? While listening to the judge pass sentence on Paul Manafort. 🙂

  16. briefly,
    And what’s more, one of the federal government’s most senior Ministers admits that wage suppression is part of the deliberate design of the economy by the Coalition!

  17. GG @11:42
    “Zali Steggal calls out the lies being tossed around by her opponents.”

    Liberals lie without compunction. It’s not how you play the game, it’s whether you win or lose, and losing is unthinkable.

    Zali sounds very confident, talking about ‘when she is in Parliament’. She might need to tone (or ‘Tone’) that down a bit.

  18. Greetings everyone.

    I need help. I know this blog isn’t supposed to be used for personal purposes, but I’m hoping I’ll be allowed to get away with it this once.

    My problem…

    After a couple of decades of just letting us get on with our jobs, my company has suddenly plunged into the Dilbertverse and now requires all of us plebby employees to write goals for the coming year to be approved by our managers and measured at year’s end.

    Would anybody with experience of this sort of twaddle be able to recommend some goals that would be acceptable to a real-life pointy-haired boss, and which I would have a fair chance of being able to claim to have achieved in twelve months’ time? I’m a software developer, in case that’s relevant.

    Thanks in advance.

  19. C@tmomma says: Thursday, March 14, 2019 at 12:19 pm

    So Matt Whitaker stopped to smell the roses in the Rose Garden on the way out the door, eh? While listening to the judge pass sentence on Paul Manafort

    **************************************************

    Whitaker – ANOTHER dude who will live to regret the day he ever linked himself to Trump

    Rick Wilson – ETTD – Everything/Everyone Trump Touches Dies ……

    John Schindler above – Everyone on Team Trump should consider the fate of Paul Manafort as a possible preview of their own. Your legal exposure may be far greater than you think, and if the Feds don’t get you, state-level courts will. There are no exits or off-ramps left for those who broke laws to put Donald J. Trump in the Oval Office.

  20. Zali sounds very confident, talking about ‘when she is in Parliament’. She might need to tone (or ‘Tone’) that down a bit.

    Nah, true small ‘l’ Liberals love winners and this is small ‘l’ Liberal heartland we are talking about. 🙂

  21. All too easy for Shorten.

    Reactionaries gonna be reactive.

    Shorten’s genius has been to not react to every Coalition provocation, but to draw them into reactionary opposition to things that are popular and so leaving the government boxed in defending the indefensible.

  22. C@tmomma says:
    Thursday, March 14, 2019 at 12:25 pm
    Zali sounds very confident, talking about ‘when she is in Parliament’. She might need to tone (or ‘Tone’) that down a bit.

    Nah, true small ‘l’ Liberals love winners and this is small ‘l’ Liberal heartland we are talking about.

    Yup. People have to believe she can win. She has to evince that belief too.

  23. Ante Meridian, how pointy-haired are the bosses?

    More seriously, if you can, I would stay away from KPI’s. They are a trap. They can be ratcheted up or down and are difficult to leave. If possible make your goals aligned with your company’s goals, or make them personal growth goals, such as further education or networking.

  24. Ante Meridian,
    I have a bit of experience with developing KPIs.

    So how about?

    ‘A measured and verifiable uptake of software that I have collaborated in designing or designed individually’.

    ‘A low level, as designated by my direct report, of bugs and fixes which needed to be carried out on software which I developed’.

    ‘Update of software which I have carriage of when new code becomes available.’

  25. Rats….the LNP have been campaigning against themselves for several years….really, from the moment Abbott was elected. Their brand is very badly sullied now. It stands for indecision, conflict, disloyalty, failures of every kind, cynicism and self-defeat. They’re busted.

  26. Steve777 @ #1479 Thursday, March 14th, 2019 – 12:23 pm

    GG @11:42
    “Zali Steggal calls out the lies being tossed around by her opponents.”

    Liberals lie without compunction. It’s not how you play the game, it’s whether you win or lose, and losing is unthinkable.

    Zali sounds very confident, talking about ‘when she is in Parliament’. She might need to tone (or ‘Tone’) that down a bit.

    Yeah. I was impressed. She was on message and communicated well. Admittedly it was a relatively soft interview. But her points and how they were made would go straight to the hearts and minds of the people she is trying to attract to her candidacy.

  27. On the other side is the ACTU doing its job and standing up for workers.

    The labour movement has collectively been shifting the Overton window for 5.5 years now. It’s clearly a long term strategy, adopted from marketing. (And, incidentally, one of the things old mate bemused had right.)

  28. C@t,

    Brilliant! Thanks.

    Ratsak,

    I wouldn’t do that to my direct boss. He’s a decent bloke and manager. It’s the bozos at the very top giving us all angst.

  29. @ C@tmomma
    “I don’t want the Liberals who read this blog to find out”. Surely both of them can’t read the blog at the same time, can they? The Libs can’t afford to have both of them rostered on at the same time….aren’t they committed to giving Kooyong more support?

  30. ratty,

    Compare and contrast how the quality Queensland bats cleaned up this round, while the useless NSW bats can’t handle a bit of humidity.

    Meanwhile Josh and Mitch will be looking over their shoulder at a fit Jimmy Pattinson coming back strong.

  31. https://www.alp.org.au/tax_refund_for_working_australians

    Had a look at this after was linked upthread.

    On tax cuts going into the election, really, i dont think the ALP actually NEEDS go any further than whats in there. They may go a bit further if they can afford it……..but i reckon the emphasis will be on services and infrastructure spending, paying down debt, and structural budget repair.

    Wonder how much, if any more emphasis will be put on Climate Change / Power supply transitions??

    They have the plan to fund hydrogen research and development, CSIRO are doing some remarkably useful stuff anyway and boosting thier funding could be an easy quick way to spend some $ on that??

  32. onebob,
    As we’re into Pre Poll now I don’t care! 😆 But just think about the stupid moves Gladys has made in the last month which have benefited us enormously that she might not have made otherwise. 🙂

  33. imacca,
    Increasing Newstart is the big one that everyone will approve of, except the avaricious class, but Labor will need to have put aside a large war chest to pay for it.

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