BludgerTrack: 53.2-46.8 to Labor (still)

No new grist for the BludgerTrack mill this week, but there’s a Greenpeace-sponsored federal poll and some preselection news to relate.

There haven’t been any new polls this week, so the headline to this post isn’t news as such – the point is that a new thread is needed, and this is it. Developments worth noting:

• We do have one new poll, but it was privately conducted and so doesn’t count as canonical so far as BludgerTrack is concerned. The poll in question was conducted by uComms/ReachTEL for Greenpeace last Wednesday from a sample of 2134, and has primary votes of Coalition 38.8%, Labor 36.7%, Greens 9.7% and One Nation 6.1%. A 53-47 two-party split is reported based on respondent-allocated preferences, but it would actually have been around 51.5-48.5 based on preferences from 2016. The poll also features attitudinal questions on carbon emissions and government priorities, which you can read all about here.

• The Greens have landed a high-profile candidate in Julian Burnside, human rights lawyer and refugee advocate, to run against Josh Frydenberg in the normally blue-ribbon Melbourne seat of Kooyong. This further complicates a contest that already featured independent hopeful Oliver Yates, former Liberal Party member and chief executive of the Clean Energy Finance Corporation.

• The Liberal preselection to choose a successor to Julie Bishop in Curtin will be determined by a vote of 60 delegates on Sunday. Initial reports suggested the front-runners were Celia Hammond, former vice-chancellor of Notre Dame University, and Erin Watson-Lynn, director of Asialink Diplomacy at the University of Melbourne, which some interpreted as a proxy battle between bitter rivals Mathias Cormann and Julie Bishop. However, both have hit heavy weather over the past week, with concerns raised over Hammond’s social conservatism and Watson-Lynn’s past tweets critical of the Liberal Party. Andrew Tillett of the Financial Review reports that some within the party believe a third nominee, Aurizon manager Anna Dartnell, could skate through the middle.

• Tom Richardson of InDaily reports moderate faction efforts to install a male candidate – James Stevens, chief-of-staff to Premier Steve Marshall – in Christopher Pyne’s seat of Sturt are prompting a slew of conservative-aligned women to nominate against him. These include Deepa Mathew, a manager at the Commonwealth Bank and state candidate for Enfield last year; Joanna Andrew, a partner with law firm Mellor Olsson; and Jocelyn Sutcliffe, a lawyer with Tindall Gask Bentley. However, Stevens remains the “overwhelming favourite”.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

2,867 comments on “BludgerTrack: 53.2-46.8 to Labor (still)”

Comments Page 27 of 58
1 … 26 27 28 … 58

  1. It’s not only wages that are the problem in the work environment right now, it’s the conditions that employers are making employees work under. I say this from personal experience. My son has been trying to get a job again after his operation last year.

    The first job he went to had him sanding objects for 8 hours straight, with no PPE. That is, nothing to protect his ears from the high-pitched whine of the sander. Nothing to protect his lungs from the particulate matter in the air. Only one very short break of 20 minutes in the day. He lasted one day. He has asthma and the dust all settled in his lungs and he could hardly breathe the next day. He still hasn’t been paid for his work.

    This week he went to a job in the plastics packaging industry. More noisy machines. More particulate matter in the air. This time micro-particulate plastic dust. No PPE again. This time he lasted 2 days. He woke up this morning at 2am with ringing in his ears and inability to breathe. Again. They had him working 12 hour shifts. Hopefully he will get paid.

    There is no policing of workplace safety and conditions. The federal government and State Coalition governments have just ignored it. Plus, they think that no wage increases in this environment is a ‘design feature’ that they support.

    I hope they all burn in hell after their nasty, brutish government is defeated at the next election.

  2. Observer

    Labor started it. We saw the Democrats the Nuclear Disarmament party to name two. Its just now conservative voters are waking up and rebelling against going what they consider too far right.

    The fact is the two major parties have lost voters trust for a reason. Labor would have been better to stick with Curtin Whitlam era politics but Hawke and Keating ruled in the Neo Liberal era and some Labor people are having some trouble remembering why Labor standing up for workers has been more Curtin Whitlam than Hawke Keating throughout its history.

    The Greens are going through a rough patch there is no doubt. However its not the end of the Greens as a party just yet. So they could gain more votes depending on how Labor governs.

    Look to Andrews and now Daley going back towards what Labor has been about and rightly directly attacking privatisation and standing against coal.

  3. Lowe has referred to the recession in wages since he assumed Governor of the RBA – including on stage with Shorten this week

    Meanwhile Ad Man from Mad Men was where?

    Also refer to the commentary of the likes of Stiglitz

  4. Morning all

    Wages, job security and underemployment are definitely hot button issues especially for younger people.
    Admittedly the feedback I get is from very strong Labor seats.

    Here in Victoria, the economy is still doing well due to the huge
    Infrastructure spend by state Labor and the rising population. At the rate we are going, we will pass Sydney as the most populated city.
    Meanwhile the weather is changing this week to a more autumnal vibe. Lovely! Just how I like it.

  5. Morning all and thanks BK. Thanks for extending your coverage to sources like New Daily and Saturday Paper. They are doing some good pieces these days.

    We are now effectively in de facto campaign mode, since ScumMo has effectively given up running the country. No doubt he plans to offer budget sweateners in April to buy re-election in May. There seems to be no other plan. No social or economic reform is even on the horizon, let alone being proposed. Their climate change “policy” has just been exposed as a tactic in an internal leadership battle. So its OK to waste a few billion of public funds on that “policy”. Their only clear policy is to lower taxes, services, and wages.

    They used to say that tax cuts are in the Liberal’s DNA. It seems to be all that they understand. ScumMo is seeking a mandate simply to retain power. He has no intention of using it to fix the nations problems. I think that has been the Liberal’s agenda for along time. What is remarkable is their inability to dress it up as anything more than naked greed.

  6. C@t

    That is not on! I would be calling workspace to inspect these places! PPE are fundamental requirements these days,

  7. Gay tour

    More of the same delusional tripe

    You individuals really are a bore and have no conception of politics let alone government

    You are still on the coat tails of Bob Brown and the Franklin River – but who got the result?

    Hawke

  8. Thanks BK for the Dawn Patrol.

    Great cartoons – in particular the one by Pope.

    I tried to think of a song accompaniment – the best I can come up with is

    K. Michelle – Kiss My Ass (Lyrics) – YouTube

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=GFk7nVURZMU

    ♫Cause you know ♪who you are
    And ♫all you’ve put me ♪through
    To ♫raise your ♫glass,
    I ain’t ♪even mad
    You can just, ♪kiss my ass
    Baby you ♫can just kiss my ♪ass, mhm, oh

    ☮🐻☕

  9. Seriously Abbott, Joyce and ors have sucked on the public teat long enough, and have contributed sweet f a to improving the nation.
    They should Join Pyne, Bishop and ors out the bloody door

  10. Observer

    Way to attack on sexuality using my name by the looks of it. My apologies if thats not deliberate.

    Your denial of the change in politics from the neo liberal era does you no credit. I did give Labor credit in government for moving back to its Curtin Whitlam era.

    We are not living in a Neo Liberal age today. Labor has recognised this even if you have not.

  11. Character assassination so beloved of the major parties and some of its supporters. Here’s one targeting Daley by association.

    All’s fair in love and war.

    https://www.theage.com.au/national/nsw/union-boss-michael-williamson-out-of-the-clink-and-into-clover-20190308-p512tb.html

    After five years in prison for his “parasitic plundering” of his union’s funds, former Health Services Union boss Michael Williamson has been released from jail and is living with his ex-wife in a waterfront house bought and renovated using stolen union funds.

    His former wife Julieanne received the house in the divorce settlement she struck with her husband before he went to jail.

    The former national president of the Labor Party was released from Cessnock jail last Saturday and his family drove him 45 kilometres to their two-storey holiday home at Brightwaters on the shores of Lake Macquarie. The family also own the house next door.

    In October 2013 Williamson agreed to plead guilty to stealing $1 million from the union, but in reality the amount was estimated to be closer $20 million. As part of his plea deal he signed an undertaking to repay the HSU $5 million which he had fraudulently used to maintain his family’s lavish lifestyle.
    :::
    The timing of Williamson’s release is not fortuitous for Labor on the eve of state and federal elections.

  13. Fess

    Every day the picture becomes a little clearer.

    This Twitter feed is one I keep an eye on, as it focuses on the mobster that is Trump and his cronies.

    _________

    Lincoln’s Bible
    @LincolnsBible
    ·
    3h
    CINDY YANG sex-trafficking scandal: As panicked
    @GOP
    readies all PR flacks, Senate staffers, & Pepe propagandists to unleash a deluge of Clinton whataboutisms, arms-length excuses/ denials, & pizza parlor conspiracies, remember…
    FOCUS ON THE MONEY.
    FOCUS ON THE CORRUPTION. /1

    Lincoln’s Bible
    @LincolnsBible
    ·
    3h
    2/ Very likely that Yang funneled sex trafficking profits thru the
    @GOP
    . They took her money.
    Just as they took Blavatnik’s, Vekselberg’s, Torshin’s.
    All signs point to the
    @GOP
    being a laundering front for transnational organized crime.
    And Congress is swamped w/ their puppets.

  15. ‘“The two major parties have raised the bar for minor parties and independent candidates over decades,” she said.’

    Bzzt. The Senate reforms – supported by the Greens and introduced by the Liberals – was opposed by Labor on the basis that it would raise the bar for minor parties and independent candidates.

    Whether or not this turns out to be correct or not isn’t the point – the point is that the most recent changes to our electoral system were not the product of the ‘the two major parties’.

    The reforms to Victoria’s Upper House, which have seen a rise in minor parties and independents, was introduced by Labor. It is presently opposed by the Greens, not because it prevents minor parties and independents getting elected, but because the wrong minor parties and independents are getting elected.

    When the changes saw Greens getting elected, the Greens were all for them.

  16. Observer

    Just to be clear to you. I could be a card carrying member of the Liberal Party (of course I am not) and still recognise that the Greens are not going to disappear from the political scene any time soon.

    Recognising reality does not make one a supporter of one party or another.

  17. @TonyHWindsor
    55m55 minutes ago

    Word has it that Morrison angry about possible Joyce return , New England Nats tried to prise him out of Electorate but Gina made massive donation to Federal Nats to save the boy and salve the wound . Let’s hope he gets the leadership .

  20. Woke up, yay that’s a plus.

    Mow the lawns ? No, its pouring rain but at least is reducing some of the fire smoke down here.

    Walk the dog ? Nope, he ain’t interested.

    Read BKs breakfast news ? There’s an idea. Thanks BK again for the trouble you go to.

    Cheers

  21. Annndddd, just when you thought things couldn’t get more Monty Python-esque, we have this:

    Josh DawseyVerified account@jdawsey1
    3h3 hours ago

    President Trump is signing bibles for volunteers and survivors at a Baptist church in Alabama.

    :large

  22. ‘“My gut instinct is that it’s preferable to let as many people run as possible and that we need to trust voters to sort out the serious candidates from, you know, the ‘joke’ or the provocative candidates,” she said.’

    OK. I’d agree with this.

    However, the biggest impediment to this happening atm is nothing to do with the major parties entering into some dark conspiracy to curb the inevitable wave of indies and minors taking over. It is the High Court’s interpretation of S44, which imposes unreasonable timelines on candidates as well as extra bureaucracy.

    Basically, if you are a minor or indie candidate who might even have a squeak of a problem with dual citizenship, you need to decide a year out that you intend to run. Given the bulk of indies decide to run only weeks or months out of an election, that will do more to deter them than any change introduced by the majors.

    Our local indie, to avoid any S44 arguments, has already quit her public service job (unnecessarily, I know, but she apparently felt it was important). That’s a huge sacrifice, particularly when you don’t have any guarantee of winning.

  23. https://www.smh.com.au/education/enrolments-in-catholic-schools-fall-as-independent-schools-grow-20190308-p512ud.html

    Enrolments in Australia’s Catholic schools have fallen for the second year in a row, while the number of students attending government and independent schools grows, new figures show.

    The Australian Bureau of Statistics data comes as the Coalition’s election pledge to triple its annual spending on building classrooms for non-government schools shapes as the most divisive education pledge of the NSW election campaign so far.
    :::
    Labor has not revealed whether it will match the Coalition’s promise.

    Cross-posted on NSW election thread.

  24. The obsession on here with Burnside is bizarre……what’s it all about? Insecure Labor supporters needing to have a go, insecure Greens needing to have a go?

    Burnside made a quote that was quite obvious , then the holier than thou discussion continues on both sides…….

  25. Observer
    says:
    Saturday, March 9, 2019 at 8:47 am
    Gay tour
    _____________________________
    guytaur
    says:
    Saturday, March 9, 2019 at 8:50 am
    Observer
    Way to attack on sexuality using my name by the looks of it. My apologies if thats not deliberate.
    _________________________________________
    He’s done it before. Remember I asked last time if he does this regularly. I suppose he thinks its an insult.

  26. Zoomster

    Thats why I agree with Briefly that s44 needs reform. Its not just because we exclude some exceptionally good people from multicultural backgrounds born and raised here.

    Its also for the very good reasons you cite. However be in no doubt. If we had an electoral system like the ACT or New Zealand there would be more minor party representation and minority governments would be more matter of fact.

    To me the Gillard government was the best since Whitlam building on the start the Rudd government made.
    The ACT government is one I admire. I think its doing things well and the fact it keeps getting reelected shows that being that progressive is a vote winner.

    The only reason the Gillard government got problems was internal Labor politics (none of which can be laid at the feet of the Greens or the conservative independents who gave confidence)

    If Bill Shorten governs like the Gillard government did listening to both sides of the political spectrum and ignoring the RWNJ’s then I think it will do really really well and be in for the long term.
    I still think the RGR wars would have been less damaging without the Murdoch press promoting Tony Abbott. However dumping a Prime Minister turned out to be something that Labor just could not get over with the voters.

    Edit: Terminal problems I mean.

  27. Peg

    Yes, I read it, and I’m commenting on something raised by one of the people interviewed.

    And you’re the one saying that all’s fair in love and war, after all.

    The article is basically a meaningless whinge. It offers no solutions. It ignores the fact that a major party candidate in a non winnable seat faces much the same difficulties. It doesn’t even really identify why it would be good to have more indies in Parliament.

    People vote for a major party candidate because they believe that that candidate is in a better position than an indie to deliver what they want.

    Ironically, the only way the indies have been able to achieve anything in the present parliament is when they’ve voted as a bloc. Which sort of makes them a minor party…

  28. A matter of borders: Julian Burnside appears for IA – article by Binoy Kampmark:

    https://independentaustralia.net/politics/politics-display/a-matter-of-borders-julian-burnside-appears-for-ia,12450

    The dangers of politics are all too evident. For, as one questioner put it to Burnside, going into it leaves a gap. The paradox of dealing with the political is that you can often influence it more from the outside than in. The corruption of one renders the innocence of the other questionable. But Burnside is determined. He sees the Greens as more than a party of “environmentalists”. They have matured. Whatever the outcome in the upcoming federal poll, few can doubt the credentials of a man who has, along with his wife, made a habit of sheltering and hosting refugees. Time to upturn the orthodoxy of extremism in dealing with Australia’s border matters.

  29. The obsession on here with Burnside is bizarre……what’s it all about?

    Fascination that the mere mention of him is such a trigger for Greens.

  31. I remember why wife saying after Julia Gillard got unceremoniously dumped

    “Fark, that is going to cost Labor two elections, not one”.

    Sage words from someone bored with politics after the occasional dummy spit whenever Abbott, Turnbull or Scomo appear on her evening Tv watching.

  32. Nath

    You are correct it does appear to be an attempt at insult and intimidation to shut down a voice because Observer doesn’t like views put by others that he/she does not agree with

  33. Apparently, it’s okay to go after Burnside personally but it’s not okay to push back against such attacks.

    How unsurprising.

  34. Victoria says: Saturday, March 9, 2019 at 8:56 am

    Fess

    Every day the picture becomes a little clearer.

    This Twitter feed is one I keep an eye on, as it focuses on the mobster that is Trump and his cronies.

    ***************************************************

    Yes Victoria – more on that amazing of co-incidences that link all those in Florida …..

    Trump cheered Patriots to Super Bowl victory with founder of spa where Kraft was busted

    Seated at a round table littered with party favors and the paper-cutout footballs that have become tradition at his annual Super Bowl Watch Party, President Donald Trump cheered the New England Patriots and his longtime friend, team owner Robert Kraft, to victory over the Los Angeles Rams on Feb. 3

    Nineteen days after Trump and Yang posed together while rooting for the Patriots, authorities would charge Kraft with soliciting prostitution at a spa in Jupiter that Yang had founded more than a decade earlier.

    Read more here: https://www.miamiherald.com/news/politics-government/article227186429.html#storylink=cpy.

    Li Yang, 45, posed with Donald Trump during the Super Bowl while rooting for the Patriots

  35. Victoria:

    Were you as appalled as I was at Manafort’s light sentence? Mueller must be tearing his hair out – all that work joining dots, crossing t’s and dotting i’s and a judge can’t find it in him to ensure the penalty fits the crime!

  36. Observer
    says:
    Saturday, March 9, 2019 at 8:47 am
    Gay tour
    _________

    Lift your game Observer- your best is better than that cheap shot.

  37. Observer is bored by the repetitious posts of a handful, if that, of Greens posters.

    I still haven’t stopped laughing.

  40. Li Yang, 45, posed with Donald Trump during the Super Bowl while rooting for the Patriots
    ——-
    Would Trump go the grope on that one? Don’t think so.

  41. Let’s hope that Manafort’s second trial, at which he will be sentenced next week, gives him a more fitting punishment.

  42. Fess

    I was appalled but not surprised.

    I’m hoping Manafort gets his just desserts next week, but I’m not holding my breath

  43. lizzie @ #19523 Saturday, March 9th, 2019 – 9:01 am

    @TonyHWindsor
    55m55 minutes ago

    Word has it that Morrison angry about possible Joyce return , New England Nats tried to prise him out of Electorate but Gina made massive donation to Federal Nats to save the boy and salve the wound . Let’s hope he gets the leadership .

    Gina the Hutt has the same exquisite taste in toy boys beetroots as she has in Melbourne Cup Fashion Failures falls.

  44. Vic:

    Manafort is facing judge Amy Berman Jackson next week.

    Jackson, after all, is the judge who ruled that Manafort had indeed lied to investigators. In doing so, she officially voided his cooperation agreement. And while Ellis is known to be skeptical of sentencing guidelines for the kinds of white-collar crimes Manafort was convicted of — and suggested he wasn’t all that impressed with Mueller’s investigation — Jackson is known to be tougher. She’s the judge who jailed Manafort for witness-tampering. In ruling Manafort had lied, she said that his “concessions comes in dribs and drabs, only after it’s clear that the Office of Special Counsel already knew the answer” and that he was “withholding facts if he can get away with it.” And she’s also the judge who recently read Roger Stone the riot act for his social media posting featuring her face next to what she deemed to be crosshairs.

    https://www.washingtonpost.com/politics/2019/03/08/manafort-isnt-out-woods-yet-fact-now-his-lies-mueller-could-cost-him-dearly/?utm_term=.893323691249

  45. Eyebrows have been raised in legal circles over Attorney-General Christian Porter’s decision to appoint a junior barrister he knew at law school to the Federal Court.

    Industrial relations specialist John Snaden was a prominent Liberal student politician whose time at the University of Western Australia’s law school overlapped with Mr Porter’s for several years.

    The decision to appoint someone so young, known to the Attorney-General and with past political links raised “genuine questions” about transparency, according to one law professor.

    Mr Snaden, 43, who has been named as a close friend by two other Liberal politicians, will be sworn in next month and eligible to sit on the bench until 2046.

    https://www.smh.com.au/politics/federal/ag-christian-porter-appoints-junior-barrister-he-knew-at-uni-as-judge-20190308-p512r6.html

  46. Confessions says: Saturday, March 9, 2019 at 9:24 am

    Victoria:

    Were you as appalled as I was at Manafort’s light sentence? Mueller must be tearing his hair out – all that work joining dots, crossing t’s and dotting i’s and a judge can’t find it in him to ensure the penalty fits the crime!

    *****************************************************

    According to Joe Scarborough

    MSNBC’s Morning Joe blasts Manafort judge for ‘bizarre’ bias: ‘He sounded like somebody at a Trump rally’

    SNBC’s Joe Scarborough blasted the judge who sentenced Paul Manafort to just four years on a conviction for financial fraud.

    The 47-month sentence handed down by Judge T.S. Ellis III was so light, considering that prosecutors asked for up to 25 years in prison, that “Morning Joe” contributor Donny Deutsch wondered whether President Donald Trump had intervened in the sentencing process.

    Scarborough and co-host Willie Geist quickly tried to move past Deutsch’s speculative question, and said there had been no evidence the president had intervened in Manafort’s sentencing, but the host agreed Ellis appeared to be biased against prosecutors.

    https://www.rawstory.com/2019/03/msnbcs-morning-joe-blasts-manafort-judge-bizarre-bias-sounded-like-somebody-trump-rally/

  47. BK says: Saturday, March 9, 2019 at 9:29 am

    Li Yang, 45, posed with Donald Trump during the Super Bowl while rooting for the Patriots
    ——-
    Would Trump go the grope on that one? Don’t think so.

    *********************************************

    I saw this in an article BK :

    Additionally, Yang still owns spas in South Florida, and has had police visit them on more than one occasion after reports of her employees selling sex. An online review of her Tokyo Day Spa reads as follows:

    “If you’re just wanting to get a ‘rub and tug,’ this might be one of the best places in West Palm Beach.”

    https://hillreporter.com/founder-of-spa-where-robert-kraft-was-busted-attended-trumps-super-bowl-party-26973

Comments Page 27 of 58
1 … 26 27 28 … 58

Leave a Reply

Your email address will not be published. Required fields are marked *