BludgerTrack: 53.2-46.8 to Labor (still)

No new grist for the BludgerTrack mill this week, but there’s a Greenpeace-sponsored federal poll and some preselection news to relate.

There haven’t been any new polls this week, so the headline to this post isn’t news as such – the point is that a new thread is needed, and this is it. Developments worth noting:

• We do have one new poll, but it was privately conducted and so doesn’t count as canonical so far as BludgerTrack is concerned. The poll in question was conducted by uComms/ReachTEL for Greenpeace last Wednesday from a sample of 2134, and has primary votes of Coalition 38.8%, Labor 36.7%, Greens 9.7% and One Nation 6.1%. A 53-47 two-party split is reported based on respondent-allocated preferences, but it would actually have been around 51.5-48.5 based on preferences from 2016. The poll also features attitudinal questions on carbon emissions and government priorities, which you can read all about here.

• The Greens have landed a high-profile candidate in Julian Burnside, human rights lawyer and refugee advocate, to run against Josh Frydenberg in the normally blue-ribbon Melbourne seat of Kooyong. This further complicates a contest that already featured independent hopeful Oliver Yates, former Liberal Party member and chief executive of the Clean Energy Finance Corporation.

• The Liberal preselection to choose a successor to Julie Bishop in Curtin will be determined by a vote of 60 delegates on Sunday. Initial reports suggested the front-runners were Celia Hammond, former vice-chancellor of Notre Dame University, and Erin Watson-Lynn, director of Asialink Diplomacy at the University of Melbourne, which some interpreted as a proxy battle between bitter rivals Mathias Cormann and Julie Bishop. However, both have hit heavy weather over the past week, with concerns raised over Hammond’s social conservatism and Watson-Lynn’s past tweets critical of the Liberal Party. Andrew Tillett of the Financial Review reports that some within the party believe a third nominee, Aurizon manager Anna Dartnell, could skate through the middle.

Tom Richardson of InDaily reports moderate faction efforts to install a male candidate – James Stevens, chief-of-staff to Premier Steve Marshall – in Christopher Pyne’s seat of Sturt are prompting a slew of conservative-aligned women to nominate against him. These include Deepa Mathew, a manager at the Commonwealth Bank and state candidate for Enfield last year; Joanna Andrew, a partner with law firm Mellor Olsson; and Jocelyn Sutcliffe, a lawyer with Tindall Gask Bentley. However, Stevens remains the “overwhelming favourite”.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

2,867 comments on “BludgerTrack: 53.2-46.8 to Labor (still)”

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  1. Peg… the reason for your failure is perfectly obvious. You campaign against Labor all the time. This is an internally illogical project. It has failed. You have entirely alienated the Labor-positive cosmos. Face it.

  2. briefly

    You need to “face it” that an increasing number of voters are forced into voting for the “lesser of two evils”.

    Hardly a resounding recommendation of support and love.

  3. Pegasus says:
    Friday, March 8, 2019 at 11:52 pm
    Upnorth

    According to your (il)logic only 2 parties are allowed to exist in Australia, or do you prefer a one-party state ruled by the dictatorship of a ‘benevolent’ Labor party who naturally “only exists to make Australia a better place”.

    Your undemocratic tendencies are showing.
    ———————————————————————————-
    Don’t tell lies. Labor believes in the democratic process and has never stood in the way of the right to organise – politically or industrially.

    Don’t forget it was Labor who fought Menzies when he tried to make the Communist Party illegal, even though the Communists played a role then, as the Greens do now, to oppose Labor.

    Tories, Greens, Communists – same, same, same. Always oppose Labor.

  4. Peg….in an era in which there is massive re-assignment of voting affiliation, your mob have failed to attract so much as one new vote.

    Labor is on the cusp of a momentous win..a win in which the Gs will play no part whatsoever. Afterwards, Labor will govern in spite of you rather than because of you. You’ve been entirely wrong for 30 years.

  5. Diogenes

    Yes sadly when that young woman was murdered near Carlton Football ground last year, police were able to retrospectively trace her killer following her all the way through the CBD on CCTV footage. Though I do know that they have people live monitoring their cameras around the CBD looking for violent crimes.

    Most murderers are not thinking about what will happen when they get caught, so the possibility of being caught on camera probably makes little difference in most cases.

    On the world events scale – I think the video footage of the ‘Santa Cruz cemetery massacre’ in Dili helped East Timor’s independence push.

    One thing I do give the media credit for is naming people in disasters (which they didn’t generally do years ago) – a starving child still has a name, as does a drowned refugee or a bombing victim.

  6. allan moyes says:
    Friday, March 8, 2019 at 11:05 pm

    beguiledagain @ 6.35pm

    Wow! Many thanks for all three of these clips. I have several versions of Amor ti Vietta but Björling is peerless.

    The Gigli, de Luca (not di Stefano, he’d only have been 6 yo – spellcheck problem? LOL) duet from the Pearlfishers is sublime, although I agree that the Björling/Merrill version is also superb.

    –0-

    Yes, de Luca of course. Too many Giuseppes!! Also forgot to add that Bizet was only 25 when he wrote the Pearlfishers and Carmen was 10 years away. As to the Amor ti Vieta, as one of the Youtube comments put it, “YOU HAVE 2 CHOICES: EITHER JUSSI BJORLING OR ENRICO CARUSO……all the rest is commentary. Take your pick!” It’s a shame that acoustic recording does not do justice to the voice of the Great Caruso. He died in 1921, four years before the introduction of electrical recording.
    Attempts have been made to remix his acoustic shellacs with new orchestral accompaniement, but with very mixed results.

  7. A poll of sorts.. … Daley has scored a try with this issue.

    Most NSW voters are still opposed to the state government funding a new Sydney stadium, polling reveals, as Premier Gladys Berejiklian on Friday launched her first vigorous defence of the $730 million policy.

    The new poll, taken two days after Labor leader Michael Daley sensationally told 2GB broadcaster Alan Jones that he would sack most of the Sydney Cricket Ground Trust if elected premier, shows more than 52 per cent of voters oppose or strongly oppose the government’s stadiums policy.

    About 37 per cent of people support or strongly support the policy and about 10 per cent are undecided.

    The poll results come as Ms Berejiklian changed campaign tactics on Friday and defended the rebuild of Allianz Stadium.

    The Herald UComms/Reachtel polled 1019 voters across NSW on Thursday night.

    https://www.smh.com.au/politics/nsw/majority-of-voters-do-not-back-sydney-stadiums-plan-new-polling-20190308-p512te.html

  8. Tories putting up the White Flag ……

    Forget the GDP, terms of trade and per-capita growth figures. Within the government right now it’s all about the “pessimism percentage”. How do Coalition MPs rate their chances of survival?

    One minister (who’s staying) puts the Coalition’s chances of victory as low as 10 per cent. Another (who’s leaving) suggests a more optimistic 35 per cent.

    These glass-half-empty assessments were made even before yesterday’s latest woes for the government.

    https://www.couriermail.com.au/news/pessimistic-liberals-rate-chances-of-reelection-as-low-as-10-per-cent/news-story/517546be68226bc372453b83ba8b44fb

  9. Rocket Rocket @ #1256 Friday, March 8th, 2019 – 11:17 pm

    Good Brexit summary diagram in the Daily Mail.

    They say that May is expected to lose that first vote by around 100 votes.

    ” rel=”nofollow”>

    https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-6784619/May-urges-EU-leaders-help-persuade-MPs-Brexit-deal.html

    Nice. Thanks for posting. It might be good on the Brexit thread too. (hint) 🙂
    https://www.pollbludger.net/2019/02/28/brexit-minus-one-month-not/
    (I’ll try to compare it with the 8 step probability calculation sometime tomorrow. Good night for today.)

  10. Oh dear the Liberals “Woman Problem” makes International news.

    “Media outlets from the US to the UK and even across the Tasman in New Zealand have picked up on Prime Minister Scott Morrison’s comments about female empowerment.

    Speaking to the Chamber of Minerals and Energy in Western Australia on Friday, Mr Morrison said that men should not have to make way for women’s empowerment.

    “We’re not about setting Australians against each other, trying to push some down to lift others up,” he said. “We want to see women rise. But we don’t want to see women rise only on the basis of others doing worse.”
    Australian Prime Minister Scott Morrison. Picture: AAP

    CNN reported on the outrage online particularly, as it was sure to point out in its headline, with the comments coming on International Women’s Day.

    The global media outlet pointed out that Mr Morrison’s party has its own women’s issue, that being the lack of female representation within parliament.”

    https://www.couriermail.com.au/news/pm-scott-morrisons-women-comments-heard-around-the-world/news-story/c5b1816dd87bdc4fe11aedf17778b803

  11. Had a bit of a laff. A peruse of nuttertruckers and they seem to be have been triggered into a pretty sustained anti green / socialist /commie bastards who all need rounding up and re-educating……….rant tonight.

    All about the W.A. EPA and rules on emissions. 🙂 We will all be rooooooooooooned dont cha no!!!

    Entertaining.

  12. Upnorth says:
    Saturday, March 9, 2019 at 12:01 am

    “Tories, Greens, Communists – same, same, same. Always oppose Labor.”
    ————————————————
    What?

    This seems to assume there is only one truth, and any deviation from the one truth is heresy.

    There are many political issues, and most have more than two alternatives. If you support option B, does that make options A, C and D the same? Also, have the other parties ALWAYS opposed Labor? On many specific issues they have supported them. Yes, they stand against them in elections, because they differ on some issues. That is democracy at work.

    The argument like saying there is only one true football team, all other football teams are the same. The others only exist to try to beat THEM. Hold on – that is what some football supporters think. (Collingwood supporter are you by any chance?)

    It is true that the Greens have not prospered in the polls recently, not aided by infighting, but there is a growth in support for “minority parties”.

  13. PaulTu,
    It’s not correct to say there’s increasing support for minor parties. There’s no growth for the Gs. There’s falling support for ON, the Cories, Central Alliance. What there is instead is the disintegration of the LNP and the rise of the Indy voices, accompanied by a revival in Labor’s ratings. This has been a long time in the making. It has a way to run yet.

  14. “We’re not about setting Australians against each other, trying to push some down to lift others up,” he said. “We want to see women rise. But we don’t want to see women rise only on the basis of others doing worse.”

    Women are equal, but men are more equal than women. Old white men are the most equal.

  15. Fulvio Sammut says:
    Saturday, March 9, 2019 at 1:26 am
    There is a germ of truth in the saying that it is better to be ruled by one lion than a thousand rats.
    ———————————————
    Amen to that. Night all.

  16. Morrison has declared himself to be unelectable.

    A few weeks of campaigning and he’s demolished his chances.

    Excellent

  17. Just be like me, smile smugly to yourself and watch the boiled heads in the media wailing and gnashing their teeth, wondering how or what they can do to bring Bozo the clown back to life before Easter Monday.

  18. FS….Hubris was sent to overcome Narcissus. There’s no narcissism within Labor. However, no matter how many hecatombs are offered by the Liberals and their sundries, they will be spread like fish on the beach after a netting. They will flap and yearn. Their eyes will bulge and their heads smack on the grit. They will not be spared.

  19. Fulvio Sammut says:
    Saturday, March 9, 2019 at 1:26 am

    There is a germ of truth in the saying that it is better to be ruled by one lion than a thousand rats.
    ——————————-
    This seems to be equivalent to supporting the “beneficial dictator” opinion.

    It is generally true that it benefits the dictator (or dictators).

    Democracy is about 20 million “rats”.

  20. Hmmm.
    I was going to ask you of your views on ritual disembowelment and evisceration, but I can see those possibilities would be considered too tame ….

  21. Morrison is just an embarrassment now on a global scale. He couldnt lead a horse to water. Whoever thought he was PM material needs serious help.

  22. The chief attraction of the concept of the beneficial dictator is of course the possibility of being able to wear that mantle yourself, and being able to squeeze a little out of everyone else.

    Anyone else as beneficial dictator will almost certainly leave you dissatisfied by his/her rule, and ruing the cost.

    However it is infinitely preferable to rule by legions of rodents, who, possessing very small but independent brains, all bent on satisfying their own immediate lusts, end up taking or destroying everything.

  23. I heard a very great blues poet tonight. Ashley. Such a voice; rich and dry with humour and affection; such a complete sensibility, supported by a guitar, bass, clarinet, drums. A very great poet. Not just the whiskey. Not just the beat. A very great blues poet.

    Later I’ve had the best whiskey in Western Australia, quite possibly the best on earth.

    Unbelievable to be alive.

  24. There’s another guy on this site who loves whiskey, poetry and music, and is lavish and poetic in his praise.

    For the life of me, I can’t think of his name, though …..

  25. Good Morning
    Barnaby Joyce has declared he will be a candidate if the deputy prime minister, Michael McCormack, spills the Nationals leadership, but the current Nationals leader insists he is going nowhere.

    The declaration of intent by Joyce to the Northern Daily Leader on Friday will keep the spotlight trained on internal party tensions after the former Nationals leader suggested in October he would retake the leadership if drafted but denied doing the numbers.

    https://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/2019/mar/08/nationals-destabilised-as-barnaby-joyce-declares-he-would-stand-for-leadership

  26. Roger Miller @ #1268 Saturday, March 9th, 2019 – 1:29 am

    “We’re not about setting Australians against each other, trying to push some down to lift others up,” he said. “We want to see women rise. But we don’t want to see women rise only on the basis of others doing worse.”

    Women are equal, but men are more equal than women. Old white men are the most equal.

    I don’t know about The Muppets. Sounds more like Animal Farm to me.

  27. This is a good news story from Chicago.

    Rahm Emanuel, the very embodiment of triangulating, neoliberal politics going back multiple generations, is leaving office with the political movement he rode to power in tatters. Last week, Chicago voters dealt both him and his political ideology a searing rebuke, as progressive women of color swept key local elections, unseated a city council member with close ties to the mayor, and sent two progressive black women into the runoff to replace Emanuel.

    https://theintercept.com/2019/03/06/rahm-emanual-mayor-black-women/

  28. Jackie Trad is very pro-developer. She is terrible on town planning issues. Not progressive at all. The sooner she is replaced by a Green, the better. Jono Sri, the Greens Councillor for Gabba Ward, which is in Jackie Trad’s state electorate, does superb work. He is highly accessible to voters, facilitates many participatory planning events for voters in his ward, and presents a coherent and detailed vision of progressive town planning. It would be great if he could be joined by a state level counterpart to fight the good fight.

  29. Good Morning lizzie!
    I hope the weather is more favourable down your way now. That footage from the Bunyip fire (don’t know if that’s in your neck of the woods) was horrendous! Looked like people who had built very large houses had the whole lot burn to the ground.

    But you won’t hear anyone ascribe the cause of the fires to Climate Change. The Climate Science-denying Right always come out with their faux outrage and concern for the victims whenever anyone tries to. It’s just too cynical. It’s also outrageous.

  30. Nicholas

    Agreed. Its good to see the progressives making wins.

    Its why I suspect Sanders is going to do much better than a lot of people expect. His fundraising and the early polling tells us that. Only beaten by Biden who has not yet entered the race in the polling. Fundraising unknown so far.

    Its a very different Democratic party to the one that Biden was Vice President let alone his record when running for President previously. Its going to be a very interesting race and I am not even predicting those two will be the front runners after the debates.

  31. @KenRoth tweets

    The dilemma for China’s propaganda outlets: they have to pretend to be independent to be effective abroad, but sending a signal of media independence is politically dangerous within China. https://trib.al/MRjy3kd https://twitter.com/KenRoth/status/1104117748509147136/photo/1

    @BBCWorld tweets

    Cheers as SpaceX’s Dragon capsule returns to Earth with a successful splashdown in the Atlantic Ocean

    [tap to expand] http://bbc.in/2ELZOyV https://twitter.com/BBCWorld/status/1104120946963726336/video/1

  32. ‘Diogenes says:
    Friday, March 8, 2019 at 9:28 pm

    Gareth
    “There are no secrets anymore. Social media killed that event.”
    I imagine a benefit concert for Rolf Harris or a comedy evening for Bill Cosby would go the same way.’

    Classic trifecta: Benefit concert for Rolf Harris, Comedy Evening for Bill Cosby and Prayer Day for Pell.

  33. I should add to my comment to Nicholas. Illinois was cited by Nate Silver on his podcast yesterday as the state that most represents American in demographic terms when discussing why its bad to have a majority of white voting states New Hampshire and Iowa as the first two states to do primaries especially for Democrats.

  34. C@t

    The fires were close enough to make a lot of smoke, but not to put us in any danger, thank goodness. They were caused by lightning, which I always feel is “better” than when lit by disturbed humans.

  35. Good Morning world and residents

    PaulTu says:
    Saturday, March 9, 2019 at 1:13 am

    There are many political issues, and most have more than two alternatives. If you support option B, does that make options A, C and D the same? Also, have the other parties ALWAYS opposed Labor? On many specific issues they have supported them. Yes, they stand against them in elections, because they differ on some issues. That is democracy at work.

    The argument like saying there is only one true football team, all other football teams are the same. The others only exist to try to beat THEM.

    It is true that the Greens have not prospered in the polls recently, not aided by infighting, but there is a growth in support for “minority parties”.


    ** Claps** I support diversity inside and outside the Parliament.

  36. STOP THE PRESSES: CORMANN BELLS THE CAT
    Wages are at record lows and now the Liberals say that’s a “deliberate” part of their economic strategy on Sky News.

    Matthias Cormann: “This is a very important point, the whole reason why it is important to have flexibility to ensure that wages can adjust in the context of economic conditions is to avoid massive spikes in unemployment which is incredibly disruptive. That is a deliberate design feature of our economic architecture”.

    Reporter Laura Jayes: “So 0.4% wages growth in recent times ..are you saying, perversely, that slow wages growth has allowed us to keep the unemployment level as low as it is ?”

    Matthias Cormann: “Well that is self-evident.”
    https://twitter.com/JEChalmers/status/1103847140139229184.

    In response Bill Shorten comes out with this

    “Today, the Minister for Finance let the cat out of the bag when he said that low wages growth was all part of the Liberals’ economic plan. Only Labor wants to see working class and middle-class Australians get a much-needed pay rise”.

    Finally the ALP has remembered the most important role of the party, to support LABOR and not be ashamed of their UNIONS roots that can and will back the rights of people to get a fair crack at the pie. Bring it on.

  37. Good morning Dawn Patrollers.

    David Crowe tells us how Abbott’s Paris backflip reveals the emptiness of last year’s leadership madness.
    https://www.smh.com.au/politics/federal/tony-abbott-s-paris-backflip-reveals-the-emptiness-of-last-year-s-leadership-madness-20190308-p512sn.html
    And he writes that he Morrison government is struggling to contain an internal dispute over coal-fired power after MPs escalated their calls for financial aid for new projects, sparking fears of a backlash from southern voters who want action on climate change.
    https://www.smh.com.au/politics/federal/morrison-government-hit-by-new-internal-dispute-over-coal-20190308-p512un.html
    Peter Hartcher explains how Bill Shorten grasps the most powerful issue yet – wages.
    https://www.smh.com.au/national/bill-shorten-grasps-the-most-powerful-issue-yet-20190308-p512u5.html
    Laura Tingle says Labor feels confident enough of a resentful mood in the electorate about inequality that it is prepared to put into defined policy and take it to voters.
    https://www.outline.com/8zDusZ
    Shane Wright thinks that interest rates could be cut three times this year as worries grow over the economy.
    https://www.smh.com.au/politics/federal/rates-could-be-cut-three-times-this-year-as-worries-grow-over-economy-20190307-p512jg.html
    Phil Coorey writes that it is impossible to unpick the logic behind Tony Abbott’s latest backflip because there is none. Other than panic.
    https://www.outline.com/5ZguHD
    Paul Bongiorno explores the outgoing Liberals and parliamentary pensions.
    https://www.outline.com/9SzGft
    Jack Waterford has penned a hard hitting piece that looks at the signs of desperation of the government. He says the smell of death has sent Coalition chicanery off the scale, with jobs for the boys (and the occasional girl) in diplomacy, on well-paid boards, and with judicial and quasi-judicial posts.
    https://www.smh.com.au/politics/federal/liberals-dig-in-to-their-last-man-and-taxpayers-last-dollar-20190308-p512ry.html
    Paula Matthewson opines that women voters certainly won’t trust a party that doesn’t trust women.
    https://thenewdaily.com.au/news/national/2019/03/08/liberals-women-problem-election-loss/
    Katharine Murphy says that the Coalition and Labor both believe the problems highlighted by the latest GDP figures hold the key to victory.
    https://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/commentisfree/2019/mar/09/one-spluttering-economy-two-political-narratives-as-parties-gear-up-for-poll
    The AFR tells us that the Coalition is again in chaos with talk that Nationals leader Michael McCormack could face a leadership challenge during budget week.
    https://www.outline.com/aGsUSv
    Paul Karp chips in on the Nationals’ leadership noise.
    https://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/2019/mar/08/nationals-destabilised-as-barnaby-joyce-declares-he-would-stand-for-leadership
    The SMH editorial declares that scare campaigns about recessions are a dangerous waste of time.
    https://www.smh.com.au/business/the-economy/scare-campaigns-about-recessions-are-a-dangerous-waste-of-time-20190308-p512rn.html
    And Ross Gittins says that if you want the unvarnished truth, the economy’s rate of growth slowed surprisingly sharply in the second half of last year. If you prefer titillating silliness, we’ve entered a “per capita recession”.
    https://www.smh.com.au/business/the-economy/forget-what-s-happening-in-the-economy-just-latch-onto-a-scary-label-20190308-p512pe.html
    Jane Cadzow writes that something extraordinary is happening in one of Sydney’s richest electorates, as fired-up locals join forces with one goal: to boot the former prime minister out of Federal Parliament.
    https://www.theage.com.au/politics/federal/is-tony-abbott-s-time-up-20190304-p511kh.html
    Polling has shown that the stadiums issue is hurting Gladys.
    https://www.smh.com.au/politics/nsw/majority-of-voters-do-not-back-sydney-stadiums-plan-new-polling-20190308-p512te.html
    And it was a white hot debate between Berejiklian and Daley yesterday.
    https://www.smh.com.au/politics/nsw/absolutely-white-hot-berejiklian-daley-face-off-in-first-tv-debate-20190308-p512ug.html
    Alexandra Smith says that If Gladys Berejiklian thought she could ride out the final two weeks of the campaign with a safe, small target strategy, she must now know she was wrong.
    https://www.smh.com.au/politics/nsw/berejiklian-and-her-team-can-no-longer-play-it-safe-voters-expect-more-20190308-p512us.html
    Since the Darling River ran dry six months ago, Wilcannia’s residents have been left to truck in drinking water. Politicians blame the drought, but locals cite mismanagement and corruption.
    https://www.outline.com/zZsCVk
    Crispin Hull says that usually conservatives support the jury system, but now that quite a few of them have attacked the Pell jury and therefore implicitly the system itself , it might be a good time to have a really good look at juries.
    https://www.smh.com.au/national/the-problem-with-the-jury-system-in-australia-20190307-p512iy.html
    Arthur Moses SC writes that the rise of the digital age has virtually thrown open the doors of Australian courts far wider than the jurists who first wrote of the need for open justice could have imagined.
    https://www.outline.com/UwaahR
    Labor senator Kristina Keneally has written to the NSW family and community services minister after a bishop told schools they were not to ask priests for working with children checks and to instead call the diocese. They have learned nothing, she says.
    https://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/2019/mar/08/children-check-row-shows-catholic-church-has-learned-nothing-says-senator
    This shows that she is on the money. A Tasmanian academic who wrote an opinion piece defending Cardinal George Pell and describing his “accusers” as “wicked” has apologised for the article, which the Catholic Church has since pulled.
    https://thenewdaily.com.au/news/state/tas/2019/03/08/church-pulps-pro-pell-column/
    Former Immigration Department senior official Abdul Rizvi says that under the worst minister ever asylum seekers have jetted in under Dutton’s nose.
    https://www.smh.com.au/national/worst-ever-immigration-minister-asylum-seekers-jet-in-under-dutton-s-nose-20190302-p511d8.html
    And Mike Seccombe reveals that despite Scott Morrison’s claims, more asylum seekers have arrived under his government than under Labor. These people are becoming an underclass of cheap, exploited labour.
    https://www.outline.com/zEeVqZ
    Adele Ferguson writes that Banks need to show more than mea culpas and committees.
    https://www.smh.com.au/business/banking-and-finance/banks-need-to-show-more-than-mea-culpas-and-committees-20190308-p512u2.html
    The brazenness of the former NAB CEO’s chief of staff is being revealed.
    https://www.smh.com.au/national/nsw/nab-chief-of-staff-falsely-used-project-eagle-mike-baird-as-alleged-cover-for-fraud-20190308-p512s0.html
    Chris Wallace hopes that after years of vicious culture wars, hope may yet triumph over hate in Australian politics.
    https://theconversation.com/after-years-of-vicious-culture-wars-hope-may-yet-triumph-over-hate-in-australian-politics-110887
    Elizabeth Knight explores whether or not the new supermarket entrant Kaufman will threaten th competition.
    https://www.smh.com.au/business/companies/will-a-new-discount-supermarket-chain-threaten-competition-20190308-p512rt.html
    Mega super funds will make ASX less relevant, ex-Schroders chief Greg Cooper says.
    https://www.outline.com/jy2UWR
    Meanwhile there is an estimated $187 billion sitting in SMSFs with balances of $5 million-plus. Labor could force amounts over $3.2 million to be removed from super, where it is taxed lightly at 15 per cent.
    https://www.outline.com/kLKc95
    The new banking ombudsman has been hit with 830 new complaints about CBA in recent months, while 1800 have been lodged against Westpac.
    https://www.outline.com/ksRKB9
    Karen Middleton bemoans the fact that over the past five years, the federal government has cancelled a dozen energy efficiency programs that were saving money and reducing Australia’s greenhouse gas emissions, and shelved possible replacements.
    https://www.outline.com/qUpEdJ
    Elizabeth Farrelly writes about the sudden decline in insect populations.
    https://www.smh.com.au/national/honey-we-shrunk-the-bee-and-insect-species-that-feed-us-20190307-p512g3.html
    Brendan Jack tell us that a former Sydney Swan has recalled being among schoolboys watching explicit sex videos, and argues it is not a big leap to the disgrace of the rugby league sex tape scandal.
    https://www.smh.com.au/national/boys-porn-and-the-nrl-sex-videos-our-pathetic-race-to-manhood-20190307-p512dj.html
    Donald Trump has once again assured us that he is incapable of rational thoughts through a speech he gave at a conference on Saturday.
    https://independentaustralia.net/politics/politics-display/president-trump-delivers-highly-regrettable-speech,12449
    Now Trump has dramatically misrepresented commented made by the judge who presided over the sentencing of his former campaign chairman Paul Manafort.
    https://www.smh.com.au/world/north-america/trump-misrepresents-judge-in-manafort-trial-as-he-claims-no-collusion-with-russia-20190309-p512wn.html
    Wendy Squires concludes that lack of respect is to blame for awful sex lives.
    https://www.smh.com.au/lifestyle/life-and-relationships/lack-of-respect-is-to-blame-for-awful-sex-lives-20190308-p512o9.html

    Cartoon Corner

    David Rowe with a postcard from Paris.

    Alan Moir and the brick wall.

    Some ugly imagery here from David Pope!

    From Matt Golding.





    John Shakespeare and Daley’s treatment of The Parrot and one on Shorten’s wages policy.


    Andrew Dyson has developed a recession severity scale.

    Peter Broelman and the Liberals’ women problem.

    Zanetti’s back in form.

    Glen Le Lievre gives us the ghost of per capitas past.

    Sean Leahy gives Peter Beatie a serve.

    Jon Kudelka unveils a new power station design.
    https://cdn.newsapi.com.au/image/v1/2f17b5d42e8afccb3082c4c2935449a0

    From the US



  38. David Speers piece in the Murdoch organs this morning has some interesting quotes, from some unamed Liberals – and their polling savant, Mark Textor..

    “Forget the GDP, terms of trade and per-capita growth figures. Within the government right now it’s all about the “pessimism percentage”. How do Coalition MPs rate their chances of survival?

    One minister (who’s staying) puts the Coalition’s chances of victory as low as 10 per cent. Another (who’s leaving) suggests a more optimistic 35 per cent.

    These glass-half-empty assessments were made even before yesterday’s latest woes for the government.”

    …….

    Veteran Liberal Party pollster Mark Textor won’t publicly predict what’s going to happen at the May election, but points out “there is a very high transactional cost in disrupting the political process when the voters don’t have a franchise in that”.

    In other words, for all of Morrison’s hard work and campaigning strengths, the cost of dumping not one but two prime ministers is still being felt.

    Bill Shorten, meanwhile, revealed his campaign theme this week. He wants this election to be a “referendum on wages”.

    Low wages growth is a real problem for many voters.

    As Mark Textor says, “there’s a deficit of hope” right now when it comes to living standards.

    https://outline.com/7JC8mK

  39. guytaur @ #1102 Saturday, March 9th, 2019 – 8:01 am

    @couriermail tweets

    Campbell Newman on his euthanasia regret and how our system doomed his mother to years of misery https://trib.al/jmtgx6T #euthanasia https://twitter.com/couriermail/status/1104102522195709960/photo/1

    ” rel=”nofollow”>

    Excellent article. The photo is just so reminiscent of Christmas’ past in Nursing Homes/Aged Care facilities everywhere.

    I love the Brown Bear tucked under the arm. Wunderbar.

  40. It would appear its own commentary that the Greens tell us both major parties are “on the nose” but the Greens can make no gains their polling languishing where it is

    I really tire of their repetitive presence on this site

    Their only relevance is that the Conservatives run a scare campaign that with Labor you will get a Greens influenced government

    To me the problem with Australian politics is the post Howard right wing conservative presentation by the former Liberal Party – hence no Chaney, McPhee, Georgiou et al

    This shift by the Conservatives has damaged politics and the opinion of politics

    Hence the unaligned represention we see in the Lower House today – a representation which dwarfs the Greens who are but one of that number

  41. https://www.abc.net.au/news/2019-03-09/zali-steggall-helen-haines-independents-australian-politics/10786984

    It’s not just media making it hard for independents, according to Jill Sheppard from the School of Politics and International Relations — it’s the political establishment.

    “The two major parties have raised the bar for minor parties and independent candidates over decades,” she said.
    :::
    “It’s just the major parties acting rationally, it’s in their interest to try to keep as tight a hold on power as they possibly can as independents pose a threat to their stability.”

    She notes, however, that the electorate has been steadily turning its back on the major parties since the 1980s.

    At the last election the vote for minor parties hit their highest level since 1949.

    “The major parties have probably made a rod for their own back in as much as they’ve been cunning and strategic, but people are starting to see through it,” Dr Sheppard said.
    :::
    Dr Sheppard believes a less restrictive approach is better aligned with our democratic system.

    “My gut instinct is that it’s preferable to let as many people run as possible and that we need to trust voters to sort out the serious candidates from, you know, the ‘joke’ or the provocative candidates,” she said.

    “Obviously, that makes our already complicated electoral system even more complicated, but I guess I’m loath to put any limits on who should be able to run for Parliament.

    “That seems kind of fundamental to, you know, a basic understanding of democracy.”

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