The addition of this week’s Newspoll and Essential Research polls have ended a period of improvement for the Coalition in BludgerTrack, which records a solid shift to Labor this week. Labor’s two-party lead is now 53.8-46.2, out from 53.1-46.9 last week, and they have made two gains on the seat projection, one in New South Wales and one in Queensland. Despite that, the Newspoll leadership numbers have resulted in an improvement in Scott Morrison’s reading on the net approval trend. Full results are available through the link below – if you can’t get the state breakdown tabs to work, try doing a hard refresh.
National polling news:
• A poll result from Roy Morgan circulated earlier this week, although there’s no mention of it on the company’s website. The primary votes are Labor 36%, Coalition 34.5% and Greens 12.5%, which pans out to a Labor lead of 54-46 using past preference flows (thanks Steve777). Morgan continues to conduct weekly face-to-face polling, but the results are only made public when Gary Morgan has a point to make – which on this occasion is that Clive Palmer’s United Australia Party is on all of 1%. One Nation doesn’t do great in the poll either, recording 3%. The poll was conducted over two weekends from a sample of 1673.
• The Australian had supplementary questions from this week’s Newspoll on Tuesday, which had Scott Morrison favoured over Bill Shorten by 48-33 on the question of best leader handle the economy – little different from his 50-32 lead in October, or the size of the lead consistently held by Malcolm Turnbull. It also found 33% saying the government should prioritise funding of services, compared with 27% for cutting personal income tax and 30% for paying down debt.
• The Australian also confused me by publishing, together with the Newspoll voting intention numbers on Monday, results on franking credits and “reducing tax breaks for investors” – derived not from last weekend’s poll, but earlier surveys in December and November (UPDATE: Silly me – the next column along is the total from the latest poll). The former found 48% opposed to Labor’s franking credits policy and 30% in support, compared with 50% and 33% when it was first floated in March (UPDATE: So the latest poll actually has support back up five to 35% and opposition down two to 38%). Respondents were instructed that the policy was “expected to raise $5.5 billion a year from around 900,000 Australians that receive income from investments in shares”, which I tend to think is friendlier to Labor than a question that made no effort to explain the policy would have been. The tax breaks produced a stronger result for Labor, with 47% in favour and 33% opposed, although this was down on 54% and 28% in April (UPDATE: Make that even better results for Labor – support up four to 51%, opposition down one to 32%).
With due recognition of Kevin Bonham’s campaign against sketchy reports of seat polling, let the record note the following:
• Ben Packham of The Australian reports Nationals polling shows them in danger of losing Page to Labor and Cowper to Rob Oakeshott. Part of the problem, it seems, is a minuscule recognition rating for the party’s leader, one Michael McCormack.
• There’s a uComms/ReachTEL poll of Flinders for GetUp! doing the rounds, conducted on Wednesday from a sample of 634, which has Liberal member Greg Hunt on 40.7%, an unspecified Labor candidate on 29.4% and ex-Liberal independent Julia Banks on 16.1%. That would seem to put the result down to the wild card of Banks’ preference flows. There was apparently a respondent-allocated two-party figure with the result, but I haven’t seen it. UPDATE: Turns out it was 54-46 in favour of Greg Hunt, which seems a bit much.
• The West Australian reported last weekend that a uComms/ReachTel poll for GetUp! had Christian Porter leading 52-48 in Pearce, which is above market expectations for him.
• Another week before, The West Australian reported Labor internal polling had it with a 51.5-48.5 lead in Stirling.
Preselection news:
• Following Nigel Scullion’s retirement announcement last month, the Northern Territory News reports a field of eight nominees for his Country Liberal Party Senate seat: Joshua Burgoyne, an Alice Springs electrician, who was earlier preselected for the second position on the ticket behind Scullion; Bess Price, who held the remote seat of Stuart in the territory parliament from 2012 to 2016, and whose high-profile daughter Jacinta Price is the party’s candidate for Lingiari; Tony Schelling, a financial adviser; Tim Cross, former general manager of NT Correctional Industries; Gary Haslett, a Darwin councillor; Kris Civitarese, deputy mayor of Tennant Creek; Linda Fazldeen, from the Northern Territory’s Department of Trade, Business and Innovation; and Bill Yan, general manager at the Alice Springs Correctional Centre.
• Andrew Burrell of The Australian reports Liberal nominees to succeed Michael Keenan in Stirling include Vince Connelly, Woodside Petroleum risk management adviser and former army officer; Joanne Quinn, a lawyer for Edith Cowan University; Michelle Sutherland, a teacher and the wife of Michael Sutherland, former state member for Mount Lawley; Georgina Fraser, a 28-year-old “oil and gas executive”; and Taryn Houghton, “head of community engagement at a mental health service, HelpingMinds”. No further mention of Tom White, general manager of Uber in Japan and a former adviser to state MP and local factional powerbroker Peter Collier, who was spruiked earlier. The paper earlier reported that Karen Caddy, a former Rio Tinto engineer, had her application rejected after state council refused to give her the waiver required for those who were not party members of one year’s standing.
• The Nationals candidate for Indi is Mark Byatt, a Wodonga-based manager for Regional Development Victoria.
“All Dolphins are drug addicts!”
Their version of licking cane toads?? 🙂
Just caught up with Insiders.
The vox pop’s at the end were worrying and amusing. The last guy…
Edit: Who is the current PM?
“First it was Kevin Rudd, then John Howard, then nothing!”
Totally wrong, but it’s hard to argue with the last bit. What is the point of this government?
late Riser
I recall the triumphant cries of the Brexiteers about new trade deals that would happen in droves. The Commonwealth was roped in as an existing structure that could be put to good trade deal purpose. This was particularly fatuous and was studiously ignored by countries like India. But some of the extreme right wingers in our Government started some co-slavering!
It was pure bullshit for the following reasons:
1. Third parties were going to do trade deals with the EU before they would do a trade deal with the UK. The reason is quite practical. Third parties want to trade with the big economy as the higher priority.
2. Sovereign risk in the UK is sky high.
3. No-one knows the conditions under which the UK will be trading in three months time, let alone a year’s time. So how can you do a deal? On the basis of 100% contingency?
4. The trade-offs that the UK has to offer may well be illusory. For example, a trade deal that might be attractive on the basis of the current functions of the City might be rendered false because the functions of the City might move inside the EU. Some are, already.
5. Trade deals involve trade-offs about supply chains. The UK end of EU supply chains may be shattered by a hard Brexit. Or they may be intact if the end game results in the UK being in a customs union with the EU. That is an enormous known unknown.
Q
During my last swing through Western New South Wales I was surprised by the number of people who did not who the prime minister was.
Some were frankly ignorant.
Others were more informed and a touch sardonic.
‘Today is Monday so it might still be…’
rhwombat
Guilt/jealousy ? They have ‘made it’ by backstabbing,swindling,sabotaging,being spivs,being shills ,a’nice guys come second’ attitude. They look at medicos and see people who have ‘made it’ by helping people (generally 😉 )
I have even more respect for Dolphins. They don’t let being submerged get in the way of getting their smoke on.
BW,
I like to think the editor’s were looking for the funniest answers, they probably figure the revolving door jokes are worn out.
At Liberal Party branch meetings across the land this scene is played out.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?time_continue=18&v=3B1IQYD4Uew
Boerwar
Which is why the PPM statistic is worthless.
lizzie @ #947 Sunday, February 17th, 2019 – 3:22 pm
Scott Morrison, tap dancing his way to political oblivion.
Another braindead journo from the Oz:
Labor’s widespread tax grab
TERRY MCCRANN
I’m not sure whether the campaign against Labor’s proposed elimination of franking credit refunds hurts or helps the ALP.
I was going to, instead watched the highlights of Sri Lanka chasing 304 in the 4th dig to beat South Africa. Glorious.
In some areas fresh water crocs rebounded extremely quickly from the croc hunting era. I saw concentrations of about three dozen in a pool about the size of an Olympic pool and I have seen dry season pools where they were lined up on the bank for hundreds of meters with barely a meter between them. The fishing pressure must have been intense.
I suspect that in the absence of (traditional indigenous) hunting pressure freshies are doing to fresh water habitats what kangaroos are doing elsewhere: severely stuffing up ecoystems.
Puffing on puffer fish? That’s why they get caught in tuna nets despite their supposed intelligence.
Although I think more Dolphins would get the question on who is Australia’s PM right than people on Bondi beach.
Everything the Oz has said will affect the ALP hasnt changed one vote.The more they go on with their rhetoric the less the voters will care.
‘lizzie says:
Sunday, February 17, 2019 at 3:34 pm
Boerwar
Which is why the PPM statistic is worthless.’
I would like to know whether any pseph has done any research on why it is a poorer predictor than 2PP.
It seems sort of counter-intuitive.
Mr McCrann is the ultimate Hanrahan.
I need assistance in understanding what Shayne Neumann offers in the role of Labors ‘boats’ spokesperson. Anyone …?
“Reviving a national risk will hurt ALP”
Out of touch. Out of ideas.Out of their tiny minds.
S K,
I jumped over the Porter interview. I’m sure he did his best impersonation of the Fonz jumping the shark anyway.
Yeah?
I would like to see how dolphins snort coke.
Question
Just a pack of lies and rhetoric as usual.
Remember, folks, this is an upcoming ‘star’ on Sky. Supposedly representing the younger viewer !
Boerwar
the question has already been asked.
rhw
The short answer to your ruminations is that people trust doctors far more than they trust politicians.
poroti
*laughs*
Thank you! In a recent conversation I tried to recall the name and it just wouldn’t come. I had to make do with “You-know. The opposite of Pollyanna.”
Hanrahan!
Liberal TV doesnt have any younger viewers.They cant afford to watch it. Just right wing loonies that can afford to have Liberal TV.
SD,
Yeah, I figured I could save some time, and the panel would recap anyway.
Porter was extremely well-prepared and had his lines off pat.
What he was not expecting was that Cassidy was so very willing to keep coming back at questions and so very, very willing not to accept Porter’s Trumpisms.
The result was that Porter was left looking like a fool.
It was, IMO, one of the very best political interviews for some time.
It follows Gilbert’s efforts at eviscerating another Liberal pollie along the same lines. Gilbert was forthright about not accepting lies and said so in so many words.
I sort of expect this stuff from Cassidy.
From Gilbert it was simply amazing…. and perhaps even more devastating.
That kid reminds me of Cisticola juncidis
https://www.hbw.com/ibc/species/zitting-cisticola-cisticola-juncidis
Boerwar @ #965 Sunday, February 17th, 2019 – 2:37 pm
As I have said before – Most respondents to surveys hear or read the question “Who is your preferred PM” as “Who IS the (current) PM”. It’s no more complicated than that. The question is totally useless.
BW
Perhaps I should go back and watch the questions?
They had another AS bit Cassidy had done during the week that got up the nose of some. Good on him for stating the actual bill rather than “The government says…”
rhwombat
Doctors have moral and ethical authority. The people I think you mean by GRASPers are devoid of both. You can borrow it, Morrison putting on the army gear to visit the floods, but you can’t steal it. And so you fear it.
lizzie @ #970 Sunday, February 17th, 2019 – 3:41 pm
The young fella has missed the golden era of Murdoch/Howard. Would’ve thrived 20 yrs ago…
Boerwar @ #965 Sunday, February 17th, 2019 – 3:37 pm
If so many people can’t actually name the current Prime Minister, how many of them do you think could name the current Opposition Leader?
PPM is simply a poll about name recognition. Not surprisingly, the current PM generally does marginally better than the current opposition leader.
ratsak says:
Sunday, February 17, 2019 at 1:03 pm
https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2019/feb/17/the-moderate-liberal-mp-is-extinct-howard-subjugated-them-years-ago
No surprise it is Grog that points out this obvious truth.
Shame it’s waaaay beyond a decade out of date.
The results of this ‘extinction’ event include the migration of moderate opinion away from the LNP. The rise of the Indy-Lib is directly attributable to their exclusion from the Liberals. The Liberals have effectively ceased to be a democratic organ – an organ that listens to and represents its constituencies. Instead it has become a machine that shouts at its audience. It is a trolling bot.
Player One @ #984 Sunday, February 17th, 2019 – 3:57 pm
Labor partisans would be crowing about the PPM polling if Shorten was a mile in front of Morrison.
He thrives. Thanks to the ’tiser. Isnt he on Sky too?
briefly @ #985 Sunday, February 17th, 2019 – 3:58 pm
The rank and file probably feel like outcasts given the weight of power the big unions wield in the ALP.
Q
I would recommend it, actually. Not something I would normally do, either.
Simon² Katich® @ #988 Sunday, February 17th, 2019 – 4:02 pm
I’d never heard of him until that post from lizzie.
Trump approval still rebounding. Man people either have bad memories or just itching for a reason (any reason) to forgive and forget and find excuse to vote for him.
He is a drug.
Sure, but I would always be happier with the ALP’s current TPP.
And according to some work KB did way back you can add 16 to the LOTO’s PPM, which puts Shorten ahead anyway.
ajm
You are probably right, IMHO.
Lucky you.
I dont read his column, or his twitter feed, or watch Sky. Yet somehow his existence has slunk into mine.
Rex Douglas @ #989 Sunday, February 17th, 2019 – 4:00 pm
Sure they would. And do you know why? Not because it suddenly becomes a meaningful statistic, but because it would indicate that Shorten’s profile had been raised to appropriate levels in the mainstream media. It might happen … but I don’t expect it to. Shorten may not even be preferred PM when he is the actual PM.
Simon² Katich® @ #994 Sunday, February 17th, 2019 – 4:05 pm
In the first half of the years of Howard there were a number of articles in Rupertville rags about a supposed rise of “Young Fogies’ and the glorious conservative future this meant. Apparently ‘fogie-ism’ had become ‘cool’ among the young 😆
JM @ #945 Sunday, February 17th, 2019 – 12:14 pm
That site is a ripper. Thanks for the link.