Essential Research has come out with a second poll in consecutive weeks, the previous one having departed from its normal practice in having a longer field work period and a later release, tailored to work around the interruption of the long weekend. Coming after a period in which a media narrative of Labor taking on water over franking credits has taken hold, the results of the latest poll are striking: the Coalition has sunk four points on the primary vote to 34%, Labor is up two to 38%, the Greens and One Nation are steady on 10% and 7% respectively, and Labor’s two-party lead has blown out from 52-48 to 55-45. Other questions relate to the banking royal commission: you can read more about them from The Guardian, or await for Essential’s full report, which I assume will be with us later today.
UPDATE: Full report here. The poll was conducted Wednesday to Monday from a sample of 1067.
** Please let Rex answer this question – he’s the one who is making the claim, he should be able to support it from his own knowledge.
‘Late Riser says:
Friday, February 15, 2019 at 1:22 pm
The great thing about being unaligned to a party is the freedom to assess policy on its merits.
That’s a good point. But I am still thinking over the German label for independents, which translates as “party-less”. Standing by yourself has its problems too. ‘
Indeed.
In the late 18th Century the Poles ran what came to be known as a ‘Constitutional Anarchy’. They did this by passing a law that no future law could be passed unless ALL the nobility voted for it. The effective result was successive partitions followed by the disappearance of the Polish state for well over a century.
In the face of Brexit, the Party system is crumbling in the UK with the effective result, to date, of more or less total policy paralysis.
The US Fed system has weak Party structures and weak Party disciplines. The effective result is that individual votes are routinely traded on a rather grim tit-for-tat transactional basis in order to get a result. Despite the considerable public posturing of some of the pro- and anti-Trump wannabes, the fundamental way the House and the Senate do business is unlikely to change anytime soon.
In Australia, the Coalition Parties are faced by existential ideological differences such that the Party processes are fracturing. The core and the fulcrum of the differences is what to do about Global Warming. One practical result, as the fate of the NEG and of the Big Stick and both of the last two sitting weeks have demonstrated, is something very akin to government by chaos, panic, shouting and shonks. There has been a corresponding collapse in Party discipline.
The notion that tight party structures and tight party discipline are always bad and, conversely, that a totally individualistic approach to MP behaviour is always good defies some pertinent lessons of history.
Depends on how exciting the article is.
Of interest in that article is the huge jump in the polls the ALP got over last ISPOS xmas break (2017/2018). 5pt jump to 56-44. So here is hoping for similar this recent xmas break and ISPOS hits a 59-41 in their next poll.
Parties exist in all democratic governments. Humans are tribal creatures and will inevitably gather with others they can relate to. The current parties did not come about by some type of decree. They evolved from informal groups who united to support a common aim.
Independents stand on a platform of one major issue and maybe a few others. Parties have comprehensive policy platforms widely published before an election. You can know a party’s position on most issues. You only know an independent’s position on a few issues.
Lenore Taylor
Verified account @lenoretaylor
6m6 minutes ago
Scott Morrison may face second parliamentary defeat – this time by Nationals
https://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/2019/feb/15/scott-morrison-may-face-second-parliamentary-defeat-this-time-by-nationals?CMP=share_btn_tw
Zeh @ #1984 Friday, February 15th, 2019 – 1:51 pm
So in realty we are study William Bowe?
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=y5xcvAoKojo
zoomster @ #1995 Friday, February 15th, 2019 – 1:55 pm
The navy says we need new submarines. WHAT ELSE WOULD THEY SAY ? 😆
How about an independent assessment decide whether there’s merit in spending so much?
*sorry for yelling
‘Charles says:
Friday, February 15, 2019 at 1:53 pm
This poll is fresh:
Barrie Cassidy
@barriecassidy
New ReachTEL poll in Flinders (634 residents) do you support or oppose the medivac bill : support 64%. Oppose 32%. Undecided 4.4%.’
Combines seat based polling uncertainties with what I image to be a tragically large MOE .
Still, I prefer two thirds for to two thirds against.
That quote from Morrison is extremely disturbing. He claims evil is lurking everywhere and only he can protect the people of Australia.
This is how dictators justify their existence. Create a climate of fear amongst people that they are facing all kinds of threats and then say “I (the dictator) will protect you so long as you obey me”.
It’s real “1984” stuff.
Climate Council
@climatecouncil
1m1 minute ago
Rooftop #solar can help households and businesses reduce their power bills. NSW & ACT together are set to save $81M over the next 10 years. https://bit.ly/2G9AVk1
Via @GetUp
:large
same-same
Surely the laziest assertion one could make when talking about policy and policy implementation.
This week demonstrated that perfectly;
While Labor has no immediate plans to change how they deal with refugees arriving by boat, it has long said that you don’t then have to be arseholes to them while they are being detained.
Fortunately enough people in the Parliament now share this view and they were able to combine and get a result.
Labor-Liberal/National, same-same?
No, very different.
Charles @ #1994 Friday, February 15th, 2019 – 1:53 pm
That’s a beautiful set of numbers.
zoomster @ #1995 Friday, February 15th, 2019 – 1:55 pm
According to some people on the web, they are buying the wrong ones, on top of that, most of the work will be outsourced.
So it is really double trouble.
The Sydney Morning Herald
Verified account @smh
6h6 hours ago
‘It’s complete fear-mongering’: Doctors reject claims of flood of asylum seeker transfers
https://www.smh.com.au/politics/federal/doctors-reject-claims-of-flood-of-asylum-seeker-transfers-20190214-p50xwg.html?utm_medium=Social&utm_source=Twitter#Echobox=1550176148
Bushfire Bill, hungry jack
From what I read (which admittedly wasn’t much) Pentecostalism has it that there is an actual devil. Morrison is true to his beliefs when he says wtte “Australia, indeed the world, is beset by evil from all directions.” A second belief is that anything goes in the defence of the anti-devil god. Applied together these two beliefs are terrifying. But what I don’t understand is how “anything-goes”, which would be close to my definition of “evil”, is not seen as doing the work of the devil. Either way, these are dangerous beliefs with which to invest a Prime Minister.
On zoomsters logic
Coal miners say we need to dig up more coal.
They’re the experts so they must be right !!
The Greens have never supported a single defence acquisition.
Not in 30 years.
Not once.
What the Greens do do is ritually criticize every single defence aquisition.
The Greens propose getting rid of the Navy and the Air Force and the current Army establishment and changing it into something they call ‘A Mobile Light Force’. Essentially this means that the Army would be deprived of tanks and artillery.
I assume that the Greens vision for the defence of Australia means a mob of work experience kids armed with sticks and stones and mounted on solar-powered bicycles.
Had we had a Greens Government for the past 30 years, this blog would probably be written in bahasa.
Bludger Greens Law No 2. The Greens noise about defence is in inverse proportion to their intention to actually defend Australia.
Zeh says:
Friday, February 15, 2019 at 1:51 pm
@nath i think the real purpose might be more him studying us, the political tragics, as some large social experiment, mice in his psephological maze.
——————————————
Mice are much more orderly than us.
Same-same and ‘pox on both houses’ analysis, lazy, pointless, you have one job.
Boerwar
The MOE in a poll of 634 I believe would be about 4%. Even up to 1500 it’s only 3%.
PWD Australia (PWDA)
Verified account @PWDAustralia
1h1 hour ago
The time for a Royal Commission into violence against people with disability NOW. But Prime Minister Scott Morrison is not yet convinced – https://www.facebook.com/PWD.Australia/photos/a.10150279765078657/10156295356813657/?type=3&theater … #RoyalComissionNow #disability #StandByMe
Late Riser
So with Dog having put Scrott on the ‘throne’ then those trying to give him the ‘royal order of the boot’ must be doing the bidding of the devil. Could make for a vicious election campaign.
I am actually with Rex on the submarines … sort of.
I think, in years to come, the bulk of warfare (if we are vulnerable to it on our own continent) will be electronic/cyber.
By all means have some submarines, but I think we should be spending more on technology AND smarts to protect us from cyber warfare. Our businesses and financial sector are just as vulnerable as government and they should be working together to protect us in this area. Right now we are relying on American companies and like Apple and Google or Microsoft to behave with “integrity” (yeah, sure, as if).
The hacks and ridiculous f*ckups with online services should tell everyone that this is a neglected area of our security … and I am not talking about encryption rules here, that are aimed at catching the odd criminal or terrorist. I am talking about protection of govt and business systems from intruders like US is currently experiencing at the hands of their enemies.
The Cathy Wilcox
@cathywilcox1
6h6 hours ago
Closing the gap.
:large
My @smh @theage cartoon.
Bill Shorten
Verified account @billshortenmp
53s53 seconds ago
“Enough is enough. It is our time to be heard. Here is our time for justice, now.”
We cannot play the video in this browser. Please try a different web browser.
1 reply 4 retweets 7 likes
Bill Shorten
Verified account @billshortenmp
33s33 seconds ago
Two years ago, Labor called for a Royal Commission into the abuse and neglect of people with disability. Yesterday, the Parliament tried to vote in support of a Royal Commission – but Scott Morrison blocked it.
2 replies 3 retweets 4 likes
Bill Shorten
Verified account @billshortenmp
10s10 seconds ago
Mr Morrison voted 26 times against the Banking Royal Commission. He cannot make the same mistake again. No more delays. It’s time for him to put his pride to one side and support Labor’s policy.
When your premise is that only navy experts were consulted, and it is 100% certain even this Australia’s laziest, most corrupt most useless Govt would have consulted at least as far as the army and broader military experts, who knows maybe even the airforce, if not a broader range of natsec experts, then you are doing very well.
Right, Rex – so you’ve dismissed the opinion of the experts based on nothing other (apparently) than a ‘feelpinion’.
If the navy aren’t the experts, who are? Who should we be listening to?
If the navy are the experts, on what basis should we ignore their advice? (Seriously, the navy doesn’t just recommend submarines because they like submarines….)
Late Riser @ #1963 Friday, February 15th, 2019 – 12:30 pm
I suspect c, d then a. Worst of all worlds.
LR
No system is perfect I just think there are good and evil in all systems.
Eg The US got the basic core of human rights right in its constitution
We have it right with Secret Ballot Compulsory Voting and rejecting First Past the Post voting.
The money being spent on subs could buy many more ships, so it would seem Defense think that the subs give us something that those ships wouldn’t. 🙂
Zoomster
Its not one word it’s two.
Independent Experts.
These can be outside or inside government.
This has been confused recently with the whole privatisation push.
Boerwar @ #2006 Friday, February 15th, 2019 – 2:01 pm
Margin of Error: ±3.7% so not that tragic or large.
This governments willingness to spend billions on defence just reminds me of how disgusting they were with the car industry and the NBN.
By all means make sure we have a decent defence capability, but not at the expense of the other things that Australia relies on every single day.
‘Late Riser says:
Friday, February 15, 2019 at 2:05 pm
Bushfire Bill, hungry jack’
I assume that you would all have picked up the reference to the ‘stirring of the beast’ in relation to the activities of people smugglers this week?
It is a direct reference to the Devil.
Just a thought- surely Labor would have road tested this medivac bill with focus groups and polling etc before deciding to do it.
Rex Douglas @ #2016 Friday, February 15th, 2019 – 2:05 pm
That doesn’t even make sense, Rex. The relevant ‘experts’ here are the climate scientists, not the coal miners.
zoomster @ #2025 Friday, February 15th, 2019 – 2:11 pm
They could obviously contribute to an independent assessment.
Tell me, if coal miners said we need more Govt assistance to dig up more coal, do you propose the Govt say YES YES here’s more money ! …?
poroti, Pentacostalism seems to be a very liberating religion.
Player One @ #2034 Friday, February 15th, 2019 – 2:22 pm
😆 …tell that to the coal miners !
Boerwar @ #2008 Friday, February 15th, 2019 – 1:01 pm
About 4% MOE. Even if it’s not genuinely reflective of Flinders voters, it’s still evidence of majority support from the community. I reckon an Australia-wide sampling would fall within the MOE of this survey.
Poroti
Isn’t it more likely that the devil put Morrison (given his mistreatment of the poor and refugees and creation generally) on the throne and god is trying to get rid of him? 🙂
autocrat
Thank you.
Be still my beating heart!
Where the bloody hell was the Minister for Health all this week?
He was absent when hundreds of Australians presented to hospitals during the heatwaves.
He was absent when, triggered by Global Warming, meliodosis came out for a trot.
He was absent when the health of hundreds of refugees was at issue.
Where the bloody hell was the Minister for Health all this week?
Hiding like a rat in a rat hole.
Would it not be lovely if it were opposition to Medivac by the effin Minister for Health that knocks him out of his plush plutocrat-protecting lair in Flinders?
Charles @ #2033 Friday, February 15th, 2019 – 2:22 pm
that’s like asking focus groups whether climate change is real
Lizzie: “Bloody cheek. He’s angry because he’s being ‘forced’ to spend money on a detention centre.”
Lizzie, I was listening to the radio when I heard him say that.
The most gobsmacking part was when he said (paraphrasing) I’m angry about opening the detention centre *THAT I DIDN’T NEED TO*!
hey Scotty, good news – its actually true, you *DON’T* need to open it – so don’t!
Boerwar, Thank you I didn’t know that. My atheism will be the death of me. “Know thy enemy.” sigh.
zoomster
says:
Friday, February 15, 2019 at 2:11 pm
Right, Rex – so you’ve dismissed the opinion of the experts based on nothing other (apparently) than a ‘feelpinion’.
If the navy aren’t the experts, who are? Who should we be listening to?
If the navy are the experts, on what basis should we ignore their advice? (Seriously, the navy doesn’t just recommend submarines because they like submarines….)
_________________________________________
When is the Navy ever going to turn down acquisitions? The ‘feelpinion’ is more a political argument that Australian military spending is way more than what is needed for the defence of the nation. As to the actual decision to get submarines, as opposed to other weapons, that could be left to experts, but I’d imagine the Air Force and Army would have different opinions.
‘Charles says:
Friday, February 15, 2019 at 2:22 pm
Just a thought- surely Labor would have road tested this medivac bill with focus groups and polling etc before deciding to do it.’
They may well have. And this may well have fed into Mr Shorten’s line about the Medivac Bill being about treating sick people. Apart from that there were, IMO, some fairly practical considerations that went into the thinking. I suggest these include:
1. Once the boats were stopped the Government was always going to undermine the feelings of urgency and importance in the issue.
2. A groundswell of opinion that Australians treats sick people with doctors not Duttons.
3. A groundswell inside the Labor Party for a more humanitarian approach to boat people.
4. The opportunity presented by the Crossbenchers having the BOP.
5. The contribution of the Greens 1.3% in any deciding vote in the House.
Rex,
Coal mining is a sh@t job, I doubt most of them enjoy doing it, but they do it because that’s how they earn a living.
Kicking coal miners is pretty counter productive, but this is what Greens don’t understand, one of the reasons why they get no more than 10% of the vote, their needs to be a transition for these worker that has to happen, which Labor and unions get.
Barney in Ben Tre @ #2028 Friday, February 15th, 2019 – 2:14 pm
Patrol vessels equipped for turnbacks would give us something submarines wouldn’t …an independent assessment might conclude …?
Nicko @ #2046 Friday, February 15th, 2019 – 2:29 pm
do they get it though, Nicko, do they REALLY get it …?