Essential Research has come out with a second poll in consecutive weeks, the previous one having departed from its normal practice in having a longer field work period and a later release, tailored to work around the interruption of the long weekend. Coming after a period in which a media narrative of Labor taking on water over franking credits has taken hold, the results of the latest poll are striking: the Coalition has sunk four points on the primary vote to 34%, Labor is up two to 38%, the Greens and One Nation are steady on 10% and 7% respectively, and Labor’s two-party lead has blown out from 52-48 to 55-45. Other questions relate to the banking royal commission: you can read more about them from The Guardian, or await for Essential’s full report, which I assume will be with us later today.
UPDATE: Full report here. The poll was conducted Wednesday to Monday from a sample of 1067.
Pica
Not watching, just following a number of journos in the room on Twitter..
@ahronyoung
@emilyHwoods
@workmanalice
@ewinhannan
Just flicked through a copy of today’s CourierMail at the doctors surgery.
Opinion piece headline :
FMD
sprocket_ @ #1949 Friday, February 15th, 2019 – 1:13 pm
Thanks!
WWP
From the start i was down for a “hard brexit”. Still no reason to change my prediction.
Something like four or five top ranked Tory Ministers have made it explicit in various public statements over time that they want Brexit, inter alia, so that they can get rid of EU standards of environmental laws and regulation for a bit of the old open slather.
In terms of demonstrated track records, the Cameron/May governments are similar to the Abbott/Turnbull/Morrison governments. They have focussed on gutting environmental regulations as well as investment in protecting and conserving the environment.
The Brexiteers regard the EU as a constraint on their desire to deregulate treatment of the environment in order to maximize trade competitiveness.
Tory Brexiteers are a bit more coy and a fair bit more circumspect about why they want Brexit with respect to IR, wages and conditions. They typically use coded language which comes down to trading off wages and conditions for trade competitiveness.
Once upon a time there was a chance that I’d be in trouble for something I was reported to have said at a public meeting. Next morning my boss met me at the door and told me to write down everything I remembered, without speaking to anyone else.
I did so and was exonerated.
Why didn’t Cash write down her recollection, as it was obvious from the first that she would be questioned at Estimates or later?
I suggest she is so arrogant that she didn’t believe she could possibly be sprung, but has now created lawyerly defences (see Sprocket at 12.49).
Emily Woods
Verified account @EmilyHWoods
2h2 hours ago
Sen Michaelia Cash tells Federal Court the ROC called her office on October 24 to tell one of her senior advisers about the execution of warrants on AWU offices: “I believe they were phoning the office as a ‘for your information'”, she says #auspol #ausunions
Bevan Shields
Verified account @BevanShields
Replying to @EmilyHWoods
That makes this evidence ROC commissioner Mark Bielecki gave Senate estimates in October somewhat questionable
The term “senior pastor” suggests he is connected to a non-mainstream church, most likely a happy clapper group.
Despite all the noise, the Greens have made 0% difference to the MDB over the past 30 years.
The Greens Plan in terms of achievements over the next 30 years appears to be the same.
The Bludger Greens Law No 1 is that the Greens Party noise is inverse proportion to their practical achievements.
That’s a good point. But I am still thinking over the German label for independents, which translates as “party-less”. Standing by yourself has its problems too. I try to imagine 151 party-less MPs trying to reach a consensus on policies and I can’t but imagine that similarly thinking groups (factions??) will quickly appear, and before long “parties” will exist, just not in name. I guess I’m just not persuaded of the idea that the solution is independents. There may be a role, but I’m not convinced it is to form government.
The great thing about being aligned to a party is the freedom to assess policy on its merits and then do something about it in a positive way, rather than only having a voice at the ballot box and on social media.
Late Riser
Maybe it would be like the European Parliament where the members generally coalesce in “groupings” of like minded politicians. But the groupings are not formal parties.
There are 8 main groupings at present.
http://www.europarl.europa.eu/ireland/en/your-meps/political-groups
Front page of today’s Daily Telecrap:
– top 60% NRL scandal
– next 30% Boats!!!! Campaigning for Morrison.
– Bottom left corner- some idiot who say they took ecstasy and will again
– remainder – get a free Winx poster (whatever ‘Winx’ is).
LR
If you are a voter you support the party or Independent of choice at the ballot box.
All parties sell their “brand” to the voter.
The best way to differentiate is on a vision of what you want. A good policy suite is a good way to do this. This can mean an opposing party will make a minute policy difference to be the proverbial mountain out of the molehill.
Accurate policy information is the first casualty of political campaigns
Brexit guess update:
Big A Adrian – your guess is recorded
imacca – your guess is updated
Rocket Rocket – your guess is recorded
swamprat – yep, your guess was recorded back in December
42d 21h until Brexit
On or before 2019 March 30, Britain will decide for one of the following:
42% (a) Hard Brexit – No Deal
5% (b) Soft Brexit – Deal
19% (c) Brexit Extension – Negotiations Continue
16% (d) Brexit Extension – New Referendum
5% (e) Withdrawn Brexit
7% (f) Something else
7% (g) Don’t care
No. Of PB Respondents: 37
I’ll keep track, but there’s no urgency on this, and unless that changes I’ll just keep track in background.
Late Riser @ #1942 Friday, February 15th, 2019 – 1:22 pm
If the voter supports a rational thinking Independent they are likely getting a representative who establishes or supports evidence-based policy of good sense.
WeWantPaul
says:
Friday, February 15, 2019 at 1:24 pm
The great thing about being unaligned to a party is the freedom to assess policy on its merits.
The great thing about being aligned to a party is the freedom to assess policy on its merits and then do something about it in a positive way, rather than only having a voice at the ballot box and on social media.
__________________________
Some irony. From what I understood the function of this site is based upon psephology which infers an objectivity which is quite at odds with the partisanship on here.
Late Riser @ #1962 Friday, February 15th, 2019 – 1:30 pm
Late Riser
I think the UK is headed for a hard Brexit.
LR
That said. NZ. The ACT. Northern Europe seem to do well.
They seem the best and the US the worst
Edit: I agree on Hard Brexit too. Its bloody Groundhog Day over there with the clock ticking.
Rex Douglas @ #1964 Friday, February 15th, 2019 – 1:30 pm
The partisan voter has to defend policy established by major party donors which sometimes go against the evidence or good sense.
We all saw clearly when the rain stopped.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Y1HRcoHGmi4
Only seen these chaps play once. At bluesfest. With Eddi Reader.
It was only then I realised Bono was right. Liam has one of the best soul voices around.
Labor up 54-46 in latest Ipsos poll.
https://www.smh.com.au/politics/federal/morrison-government-suffers-another-setback-as-ipsos-poll-points-to-landslide-loss-20181216-p50mjm.html
I have a learned British friend with a disability (MS) who has moved to the countryside, with a freshwater creek, stocked up on canned food, and equipped himself with a few legal weapons (to hunt rabbits / rats, protect his stash) come hard Brexit.
I understand the term is ‘Brepping’
He’s past worrying and believes it inevitable
No, 1000 x no. When a member expresses a contrary view, either informally or formally through a motion or policy committee, they are impacting the debate in a positive way. Someone disengaged and no bothering doesn’t have the same voice. Definitely you have a right not to engage in politics, but it isn’t a civic virtue, it is a laziness if anything.
Obviously here, to own the libs, members may well argue for positions they don’t actually support, but then again they may argue against their parties position. Unless you are a member of the Parliamentary party there isn’t any binding obligation to support the view.
Latest?
The SMH doing their bit for their team. ‘Accidentally’ forgot the link.
Bazza Cassidy has a Reachtel in Flinders….
ReachTEL poll Flinders : (which of the following candidates would you preference higher?) Hunt 44% v Banks 56%. And Hunt 48% v Labor 52%.
In the US, allegiance to your particular party doesn’t bind your vote.
As a result, the US still has paper money, because every time there is a proposal to change it, there is huge pressure brought on members from their constituents to oppose it.
I don’t know if anyone remembers the outrage in the community when the first dollar coins were introduced, but certainly any MP at the time who had a ‘free’ vote would have opposed it, based on the strength of public feeling.
It’s also why we have issues which are (usually) treated as genuinely bi partisan – because it is recognised that the stances taken on these by the government of the day are necessary and evidence based but that the general population would oppose them (foreign aid being one example).
An independent is even more likely to be a populist.
SK – the date says December 18
The Ipsos poll article is dated 16 December. However that suggests we could be looking at another Ipsos for Fairfax/Nine soon – this weekend would be a good time!
nath
‘..From what I understood the function of this site is based upon psephology..’
William frequently explains that this is not so.
Bloody cheek. He’s angry because he’s being ‘forced’ to spend money on a detention centre.
My apologies. It is from December.
Is it simply too hard for posters to read the date on articles posted?
In every cohort there are some who think for themselves and some who just like to be on the team. Why would here be any different. In the current environment, with the lazy, corrupt, stupid and destructive government most of the partianship on here is how best and how quickly improvements can be made, there is a lot of political maneuvering and implementation difference, but I would have said on actual policy direction on climate change, on inequality, on fairness, on the rule of law and absence of corruption there is a pretty broad consensus not just on PB but amoungst thinking people.
zoomster
says:
Friday, February 15, 2019 at 1:43 pm
nath
‘..From what I understood the function of this site is based upon psephology..’
William frequently explains that this is not so.
____________________________
Ok thanks. I feel less like I’m abusing his hospitality then!
zoomster
They do have $1 coins in the USA – but the public don’t like them and keep returning them to the banks! I have got a lot in change from vending machines on the DC Metro system. There are some interesting series on Native Americans, and Presidents. But I think they have almost stopped producing more because Americans just prefer ‘singles’ ie $1 cash notes.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Dollar_coin_(United_States)#Native_American_series
guytaur, slow to reply, sorry.
I haven’t followed these parliaments. But you have me thinking.
How do you decide they did well or poorly?
How many reps in their parliaments?
What are the mechanics of their parliaments?
How are the reps elected?
And so on.
Perhaps the detail is the difference.
@nath i think the real purpose might be more him studying us, the political tragics, as some large social experiment, mice in his psephological maze.
zoomster
submarines ?
coal ?
religious tax exemptions ?
…
Steve 777 https://www.pollbludger.net/2019/02/13/essential-research-55-45-labor-4/comment-page-40/#comment-3074769 Winx is an assie race horse recently voted jointly #1 in the world
Barrie Cassidy
@barriecassidy
New ReachTEL poll in Flinders (634 residents) do you support or oppose the medivac bill : support 64%. Oppose 32%. Undecided 4.4%.
The bill in the poll is explained as doctors not politicians determining the treatment offered to sick refugees.
In his Press club speech the other day he actually spoke about how Australia, indeed the world, is beset by evil from all directions.
.
You are forgiven. Although technically you were correct. It is their latest.
This poll is fresh:
Barrie Cassidy
@barriecassidy
New ReachTEL poll in Flinders (634 residents) do you support or oppose the medivac bill : support 64%. Oppose 32%. Undecided 4.4%.
Rex
Right. So, according to you, we need evidence based policy based on expert advice.
So what’s your objection to submarines? The ‘experts’ – in this case, the navy – say we need them.
What ‘experts’ say we don’t?
It is a good sandbox, I’ll often use here to test drive arguments.
WARNING – link to April 2018 poll – just for the Lol’s of the headline! They didn’t listen!
https://www.theage.com.au/politics/federal/fairfax-ipsos-poll-voters-warn-liberal-mps-to-keep-malcolm-turnbull-as-prime-minister-20180406-p4z840.html
RR
Snap