Essential Research: 55-45 to Labor

Shortly after Newspoll found the Coalition’s tentative momentum grinding to a halt, Essential gives them their worst result since August.

Essential Research has come out with a second poll in consecutive weeks, the previous one having departed from its normal practice in having a longer field work period and a later release, tailored to work around the interruption of the long weekend. Coming after a period in which a media narrative of Labor taking on water over franking credits has taken hold, the results of the latest poll are striking: the Coalition has sunk four points on the primary vote to 34%, Labor is up two to 38%, the Greens and One Nation are steady on 10% and 7% respectively, and Labor’s two-party lead has blown out from 52-48 to 55-45. Other questions relate to the banking royal commission: you can read more about them from The Guardian, or await for Essential’s full report, which I assume will be with us later today.

UPDATE: Full report here. The poll was conducted Wednesday to Monday from a sample of 1067.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

2,398 comments on “Essential Research: 55-45 to Labor”

Comments Page 39 of 48
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  1. I’m actually surprised so many bludgers are expecting a hard brexit.

    Its obvious to me that this is by far the least likely outcome. I just can’t imagine that big business and their considerable clout over the political process will simply lie down and let it happen. If a soft brexit deal still can’t be reached by the time the deadline comes, parliament will simply extend the deadline – its the one thing that both the British parliament and the EU actually agree should happen.

  3. Standing next to Obama who is 6’1” ( 185 cm ) …..
    Trump’s height was measured with a comb up rather than his usual comb over

  4. Big A Adrian

    A hard Brexit is the worst possible outcome for the UK and it’s people. For a few of the elite, it is precisely what they desire

  7. I haven’t spoken to anyone about politics lately, apart from here. I am wondering what Liberal supporters think about their party’s antics over boats. Most Liberal supporters aren’t stupid, which means they must know all this bellicose carry-on is not only bullshit but way over the top. Like the cartoonists, they must recognise the all but explicit calls to people-smugglers to send a few boats.

    So how do they fell about it? Dismayed? Embarrassed? I expect many either gleefully or resignedly accept it as a necessity to keep their people in power. Whatever it takes.

    So who is it all aimed at? Smart Labor & Green voters knows it’s bullshit. Smart Coalition voters know it’s bullshit, as would smart swinging voters. Smart but politically uninformed and/or apathetic voters can also detect bullshit when they see it.

    People like those family members Bushfire Bill described yesterday (The 2GB-Daily Rupert demographic) would be lapping it up, but they already vote Coalition. So who are they after?

    I would suggest they’re after the Stupid vote, especially those who are both stupid and xenophobic, so:
    – the stupid and/or xenophobic among swinging voters
    – the stupid and/or xenophobic among apathetic voters
    – remind xenophobes who might otherwise vote Labor who’s on their side (wink wink) lest they be temped to vote for their economic interests

    I think that they would also be shoring up the 2GB-Rupert demographic, some of whom would be tempted by One Nation or other far right crazies.

    Make sense?

  8. Sceptic says: Friday, February 15, 2019 at 12:05 pm

    Standing next to Obama who is 6’1” ( 185 cm ) …..
    Trump’s height was measured with a comb up rather than his usual comb over

    *************************************************************

  9. Zoidlord says:
    Friday, February 15, 2019 at 11:59 am
    Guardian Australia
    ‏Verified account @GuardianAus
    11m11 minutes ago

    Murray-Darling Basin’s outlook is grim unless it rains, authority’s report warns
    https://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/2019/feb/15/murray-darling-basins-outlook-is-grim-unless-it-rains-authoritys-report-warns?CMP=soc_568

    Greens should focus on real issues, not the mythical issues.
    ————————————————
    You mean like when Greens fought against the Lib Lab changes in 2018 to the northern basin, which Lab caved in to the LNP on, but have tried to backtrack on since the exposure and disaster at Menindee?
    Or demanding a federal RC to investigate the MDB plan that Lab just squibbed on themselves?

    You’d never think that Lab PBer’s had anything useful or important to do, like try and beat the bastards currently in govt, with so much time spent whining and carping about the Greens here.

  10. Greens and the MDB – 13 February 2019

    https://sarah-hanson-young.greensmps.org.au/articles/greens%E2%80%99-murray-darling-basin-royal-commission-bill-senate

    Australian Greens environment and water spokesperson Senator Sarah Hanson-Young has this afternoon introduced a Bill to establish a Royal Commission into the Murray Darling Basin.

    “I introduce this Bill today on behalf of the millions of Australians devastated by the mismanagement of the Murray Darling Basin, for the people without clean water to drink or watching fish die, and for taxpayers who have been continuously ripped off,” Senator Hanson-Young said.

    “The Government and Labor have an opportunity to be on the right side of history and support this Royal Commission. We know that corporate cotton, corruption and climate change are killing our river and it must be investigated.

    “$13 billion and what we have is a dead river, corruption and no one knows where the water is that was meant to save the river. A Royal Commission is the only way to clean out the rot and hold those responsible to account.

    “The National Party has overseen the death of the Murray Darling Basin. Their contempt for the environment, their favours for their big corporate irrigator mates, cannot continue unchecked.

    “We need to know where the money has gone, where the water is, and why the river is dying. We need to investigate the effects that corporate cotton, corruption and climate change are still having on the river.

    “The Greens push for a federal Royal Commission has a groundswell of support across the country, particularly from those on the frontline in affected river communities – people who have no clean water to drink or bathe in.

    “We have to hold those who have done wrong by our river to account. There must be consequences for wrong-doing. We need a federal Royal Commission.”

    ———-

    If it gets voted on will Labor vote with the Coalition to torpedo the bill?

  12. “i’m starting to think you should open up a Brexit- ‘Dog’s Breakfast’ option ”

    Brexit is an odd phenomenon. Whats interesting is that the “Brexiteers” still appear to have some support??

    And thats after its become obvious that the short, painless journey to the much less immigrant accepting “land of milk, honey, and soveriegn pride” they promised people…..was all complete and utter bollocks. Not only did they have no actual plan, they still have no idea how to make or implement a plan??

    Seriously, most likely outcome now is hard brexit. The only way i can see out of this is for parliment to vote to abandon brexit (on the basis that the information on which people based their referendum vote was total bullshit ) and/or have another referendum where when people vote they know the most likely outcome is the fwark up that is no deal brexit.

  13. Rupert can’t wait to get his hands on this. All those AI Shanahans and AI Pontificating Paul able to blather on for free .
    .
    New AI fake text generator may be too dangerous to release, say creators

    OpenAI, an nonprofit research company backed by Elon Musk, says its new AI model, called GPT2 is so good and the risk of malicious use so high that it is breaking from its normal practice of releasing the full research to the public in order to allow more time to discuss the ramifications of the technological breakthrough.
    https://www.theguardian.com/technology/2019/feb/14/elon-musk-backed-ai-writes-convincing-news-fiction

  14. The AWU’s lawyer is trying to ask Cash about her conversation with David De Garis on the night he resigned. Cash’s lawyer has objected, saying the conversation is covered under parliamentary privilege #auspol

    The key question is whether the conversation was for the purpose of obtaining information was #estimates. Cash has told the court – specifically – that the “purposes for any conversation were so that I could report back to the Senate estimates committee”. #auspol

  15. MDB and bipartisan agreement – May 2018

    https://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/2018/may/07/murray-darling-basin-plan-labor-to-decide-whether-it-will-back-key-changes

    Proposed amendments to the Murray-Darling basin plan that will substitute water efficiency projects instead of buying back 605GL of water look set to survive a challenge in the Senate.

    Labor has decided not to support a disallowance motion that the Greens planned to move on Tuesday after striking a deal with the government.

    This means that the amendments to the southern basin water recovery targets will go forward as proposed by the Murray-Darling Basin Authority.

    Labor has also agreed to support the other major amendment to the plan – a cut of 70GL to the water recovery target in the northern basin if the government introduces it again, as expected.

    Six weeks ago it had voted with the Greens and independents in the Senate to scuttle that amendment, arguing that in that catchment there was evidence of maladministration and unresolved questions of water theft.

    The disallowance had sparked a major revolt by New South Wales and Victoria who threatened to abandon the Murray-Darling basin plan entirely.

    Labor’s water spokesman, Tony Burke, said the deal he reached with the government put the plan back on track.
    ::: (Littleproud)
    “Today, Tony Burke and the Australian Labor party have taken my hand and I thank them for that. This shows to every Australian out there, that this place here, we can get outcomes.”
    :::
    The Greens, who had planned to move the disallowance motion on Tuesday against the changes, have accused Labor of selling out and putting “the entire health of the Murray-Darling basin at risk”.

    “Instead of delivering more water for the Murray, Labor has teamed up with the Turnbull government to reduce the amount of water returned to the environment,” a Greens spokesman said.

  16. and the EU actually agree should happen

    Can I have some sources for that, best analysis I’ve heard, which obviously could be wrong, is that the EU would NOT agree to an extension of more than a couple of weeks, and that any extension requires every single EU member to agree.

    Ireland, for one example, has a lot to gain from a hard brexit, and a mountain of reasons to detest London.

  21. The next School Strike for Climate Action will be on Friday March 15.

    “To everyone who cares about a safe climate future, this is your invite to join our School Strike 4 Climate – students standing up when our politicians won’t. ”
    :::
    So, on March 15, we’re walking out of school to tell our politicians to take all of us seriously and treat climate change for what it is: the biggest threat to our generation and generations to come. “

  22. “If it gets voted on will Labor vote with the Coalition to torpedo the bill?”

    They probably should if for no other reason than to avoid royal commission fatigue. And….quite a bit to come in the near future in terms of data and inquiry into the MDB issues. Really, an RC into MDB managment could well be a useful and needed thing…but not at the moment. Rather than failing to get this now, she would be better off delaying. But, Senator Much Too Young probably feels the need to build profile ahead of the election, and wants to try and set up the “but you voted against it X times” thing for later use against the ALP.

  23. Tom

    Of course.

    The point is I see no shame in stunts for raising voter awareness of what a party intends.

    I only see shame in senseless stunts or hate ones like Hansom wearing a Burkha into parliament.

  24. Michael Bachelard* tells Morrison to stop egging on people smugglers. If many more articles like this appear in the MSM, then Morrison has well and truly had it.

    “Every arrival will be on Bill Shorten’s head.”

    Morrison’s argument is based on a furphy – that treating the illnesses of those already on Manus and Nauru will create a new pull factor. He hopes it will win him an election nonetheless.

    His rhetoric will give hope to the smugglers. They will test Shorten, no doubt, but they should not be egged on. Nor should refugees who have been waiting since 2012, and who might in desperation be tempted to give a boat a try.

    Scott Morrison should remember the devastation this trade, this political turmoil, caused last time.

    I do.

    And he should stop encouraging it.

    *Michael Bachelard is The Age and The Sydney Morning Herald’s foreign editor and the investigations editor at The Age. He has worked in Canberra, Melbourne and Jakarta as Indonesia correspondent. He has written two books and won multiple awards for journalism, including the Gold Walkley in 2017.

    https://www.canberratimes.com.au/politics/federal/i-was-there-the-last-time-australian-politics-encouraged-people-smuggling-let-s-not-do-it-again-20190214-p50xxh.html

  25. You wonder why someone with such a poor memory could be a Minister of the Crown, with all the responsibilities and mental acuity that the job demands.

    However, I’m sure Ms Cash’s memory will miraculously improve once she is away from the terrifying confines of the Court Room. 🙂

  26. imacca

    I agree that it is looking like a “no-deal Brexit” is going to happen. Maybe the only thing that will stop it will be something passed in Parliament at the last minute to just delay the date (but the same arguments will just fester and then it will happen say three or six months down the track).

    As bad as people are predicting a no-deal Brexit will be, I expect it to be worse. Just because sentiment plays a big part in spending and economic activity. We have friends in Sunderland – an economically depressed area that voted strongly to “leave” and is likely to among the worst-affected areas post Brexit.

    What will happen after Brexit? After the initial massive problems I expect that Boris Johnson will roll Teresa May to finally become PM. I personally think Labour has played a poor hand, and that even if there were a ‘post-Brexit’ election in 2019-2020 that the Tories would probably win again, in minority or majority.

    The fantasies of the Brexiteers that Britain can restore ‘Empire 2.0’ or create a massive trading ‘Anglosphere’ are just that – fantasies. Australia and New Zealand have moved on – our trade is largely with Asia.

    I remember reading a summary of the First World War by a British writer. They concluded by saying that the “War to end all wars” had in the end finished off three Empires – the Austro-Hungarian Empire, the Russian Empire and the Ottoman Empire. Of course they were too blind to see that it had also finished the British Empire.

  28. It would be nice if retiring Labor and Liberal politicians took jobs that involved strengthening the public schools instead of Catholic of so-called “independent” schools.

  29. My peer group I’d describe as white, middle-aged, suburban, financially fairly secure but by no means wealthy. It’s pretty conservative, mostly but not exclusively Liberal voting. For what it’s worth, I don’t think “Stop The Boats #2” has got much traction. The problems with Labor from their perspective are the impact of the proposed negative gearing and franking credit changes on the value of their house and their super. If I was the LNP, I’d be hammering these themes in their marketing, not boats. LNP = lower taxes = more money for me is just assumed knowledge for a big chunk of the electorate.

    Whilst I fully expect Labor to win in May, I think it will be a lot closer than many think. The economy is going not too badly-lowish unemployment, very low interest rates, very low inflation. Despite the recent falls, a big chunk of the community would be happy with house price growth in recent years and also with their super balances. Obviously there are many negatives for the government as well, but Shorten’s unpopularity plus nervousness about Labor tax policies may lead a lot of waverers to stick with the LNP I suspect. Cheers

  30. poroti says:
    Friday, February 15, 2019 at 12:08 pm
    WeWantPaul

    i’m starting to think you should open up a Brexit- ‘Dog’s Breakfast’ option

    ______________________

    I resemble that remark!

  32. citizen,
    The nation has indeed come a long way wrt the asylum seeker issue since 2001/2013. It’s been figured out how to stop the boats making a perilous journey by sea and to return to a more sane refugee policy. We just have to stop using the people remaining on Manus and Nauru as hostages to the cause of deterrence and find a way to settle them somewhere.

    Sadly, and realistically, all facets of this issue considered, they can’t be settled in Australia, because THAT would, indeed, be a dreaded pull factor.

  35. Luke Hilakari of the Vic Trade Union Council sums up Cash’s evidence this morning….

    “The story is falling apart. I think we all know the truth. The Minister, ROC and Federal Police coordinated the raids. They tipped off the media to damage the AWU and Bill Shorten. Their stunt failed. It was an egregious waste of tax payers money. Cash should resign“

  36. Parramatta Moderate @ #1909 Friday, February 15th, 2019 – 12:37 pm

    My peer group I’d describe as white, middle-aged, suburban, financially fairly secure but by no means wealthy. It’s pretty conservative, mostly but not exclusively Liberal voting. For what it’s worth, I don’t think “Stop The Boats #2” has got much traction. The problems with Labor from their perspective are the impact of the proposed negative gearing and franking credit changes on the value of their house and their super. If I was the LNP, I’d be hammering these themes in their marketing, not boats. LNP = lower taxes = more money for me is just assumed knowledge for a big chunk of the electorate.

    Whilst I fully expect Labor to win in May, I think it will be a lot closer than many think. The economy is going not too badly-lowish unemployment, very low interest rates, very low inflation. Despite the recent falls, a big chunk of the community would be happy with house price growth in recent years and also with their super balances. Obviously there are many negatives for the government as well, but Shorten’s unpopularity plus nervousness about Labor tax policies may lead a lot of waverers to stick with the LNP I suspect. Cheers

    Do they properly weigh up the negatives of Labor against the negatives of the Liberals ?

  37. Now it’s blame shifting…

    “Michaelia Cash confirms to the court that she was not interviewed by AFP about raid leaks. Instead she referred them to the Senate Estimates hansard as that contained her best recollection of events.‘

  38. So far Cash has provided 4 excuses….

    1. Alan Bond Defence – can’t recall
    2.Sgt Shultz Defence – I know nuthink
    3. Parliamentary Privilege – what I talk to my staff about is privileged
    4. Blame the help – her staff never told her, the AFP didn’t ask her

  39. I’ve never witnessed a Govt unravelling so badly as this Govt.

    Duttons dept is collapsing

    Cash’s dept is collapsing

    Keenan is sprinting for the door

    Taylors dept is collapsing

    Frydenbergs dept is in tatters re the banks RC

    The Nats are in tatters re MDB and climate change

    Porter is failing as AG

    ….

  40. sprocket_

    There comes a time in the Murdoch universe where they start hedging their bets, because they like to be seen to somehow have backed the winner. This is especially true in about the last week or so of an election campaign – in Victoria the Herald-Sun held off on the hysterical headlines towards the end in the last State election because they don’t want to be seen to be accusing all their readership of being stupid or “unAustralian”.

    Which reminds me – I remember some years ago a newspaper asked famous Australians how they would define “unAustralian”. The best answer was from memory (?) Indira Naidoo who I think said something like “The Queen is unAustralian by definition”.

  41. steve777 @12.10….

    I think you are mistakenly assuming that Morrisson and co are actually thinking this through. My take is that his latest screeching is just a reflex action. The only thing more stupid than his rantings about the coming apocalypse because of the medevac bill, is the sections of the media who actually think this will be a game changer, and that it could be Tampa 2.0. Laughable for so many reasons, not least of all because Howard during tampa was already on the ascendancy poll wise, whereas Morrisson is as fucked now as he ever was.

    Morrisson’s attack on the medevac bill doesn’t qualify as anything remotely resembling a coherent strategy. He’s flailing like he always does.

  42. Ewin Hannan tieing some threads together, just needs to add a dash of Murdoch…

    Michaelia Cash tell court then chief of staff Ben Davies had discussions with ROC’s Chris Enright in August 2017 (the same month articles published about AWU donations). Says she was unaware of talks until she saw it noted in file note that emerged in court discovery process.”

  43. Cash told the court the AFP had requested she provide a voluntary witness statement.

    In response she sent them a letter in April 2018 attaching a copy of the Senate Estimates hansard.

  44. Big A Adrian @ #1756 Friday, February 15th, 2019 – 10:47 am

    Even if Greens are guilty of not targeting liberals, its because its redundant. Libs are guilty by default, and there’s no point labouring the point. Labor on the other hand should know better and are capable of being better. Thats why greens focus onthem. Whereas libs are veyond redemption.

    I’ve thought for a while that being to the left of Labor the best chance for Greens to win votes is off Labor, and that is the reason Greens focus most of their attacks on Labor. But if you also believe that there is no point attacking the Liberals (or that attacking Labor is the same as attacking Liberal) this also means allowing Labor to do the hard work in winning government. Put those two together and you can explain why Labor supporters resent Greens supporters.

    Nothing magic. Just the way it is.

  46. sprocket_ @ #1941 Friday, February 15th, 2019 – 12:56 pm

    Cash told the court the AFP had requested she provide a voluntary witness statement.

    In response she sent them a letter in April 2018 attaching a copy of the Senate Estimates hansard.

    Cash knew how utterly useless the AFP would be, and that she didn’t need to worry about them in the slightest. She could – and did – treat them with contempt and get away with it.

    The Senate is another matter. At least, you would hope so.

  48. Late Riser @ #1926 Friday, February 15th, 2019 – 12:57 pm

    Big A Adrian @ #1756 Friday, February 15th, 2019 – 10:47 am

    Even if Greens are guilty of not targeting liberals, its because its redundant. Libs are guilty by default, and there’s no point labouring the point. Labor on the other hand should know better and are capable of being better. Thats why greens focus onthem. Whereas libs are veyond redemption.

    I’ve thought for a while that being to the left of Labor the best chance for Greens to win votes is off Labor, and that is the reason Greens focus most of their attacks on Labor. But if you also believe that there is no point attacking the Liberals (or that attacking Labor is the same as attacking Liberal) this also means allowing Labor to do the hard work in winning government. Put those two together and you can explain why Labor supporters resent Greens supporters.

    Nothing magic. Just the way it is.

    The problem with being a partisan is the need to defend the indefensible errors their party makes.

    The great thing about being unaligned to a party is the freedom to assess policy on its merits.

  49. “The Senate is another matter. At least, you would hope so.”

    Hmmmm…i can see the Cash thing and the Paladin thing as issues that our Kristina Keneally would find fun to pursue in Senate Estimates. If Kennealy AND Wong are on the estimates committe discussing these……….is there enough popcorn in the world??

  50. Just watching Morrison – I believe he means well , but he’s completely delusional – one example is talking about support for Nth Queensland farmers but missing the big picture of climate change. Just not the type suited to the job of PM.

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