Essential Research has come out with a second poll in consecutive weeks, the previous one having departed from its normal practice in having a longer field work period and a later release, tailored to work around the interruption of the long weekend. Coming after a period in which a media narrative of Labor taking on water over franking credits has taken hold, the results of the latest poll are striking: the Coalition has sunk four points on the primary vote to 34%, Labor is up two to 38%, the Greens and One Nation are steady on 10% and 7% respectively, and Labor’s two-party lead has blown out from 52-48 to 55-45. Other questions relate to the banking royal commission: you can read more about them from The Guardian, or await for Essential’s full report, which I assume will be with us later today.
UPDATE: Full report here. The poll was conducted Wednesday to Monday from a sample of 1067.
Never see Michael Holding commentate on a WI match
Anyone who thinks that someone over 70 is not capable of using the f-word has clearly never been to a Collingwood match.
Mavis Smith
says:
Wednesday, February 13, 2019 at 9:26 pm
[‘…Hitler shouts ‘we’ve held Wentworth before Lesbians were even invented’ lol.’]
The invocation of Godwin’s Law should be proscribed.
____________________________
OK but it was GG who first raised it.
To me it looks like another too-smart-by-half move by Scott Morrison. The law now says they have to be brought to Australia for medical treatment, Christmas Island is a part of Australia, so that’s where they are going.
They don’t have the number in either house and this is the stunt they want to pull? They are certifiable mad.
I’ve got pot plants smart enough to have lost confidence in this Government if these very very very liberal independents still have support in this Government they are certainly not someone any labor person should ever consider voting for. This is a historically bad, possibly the worst most corrupt Government we have ever had today. The racist rhetoric today makes Trump look mild intelligent and considered.
BB “The most beneficial application of Game Theory that I have come across is a game about parking lots.”
Certainly following six other cars looking for a spot doesn’t work, so I try to break away at the first opportunity.
Selecting the first spot you see within acceptable walking distance is good, but often doesn’t work in Sydney because there aren’t any.
In a multi-storey car park I just keep driving up and up until I see gaps.
[‘It is hyperbole for the government to call this a dismantling of the offshore detention system. About 524 people have been granted medical transfers over six years under the Coalition government, according to the Parliamentary Library. Their arrival has not dismantled the system.’]
A few facts to evidence the hyperbole of the hapless FauxMo, his off-sider Dutton:
https://www.smh.com.au/politics/federal/facts-matter-in-refugee-debate-20190213-p50xku.html
I doubt that Downfall parodies trigger Godwins Law.
nath
I hadn’t seen that Wentworth Downfall. Looking forward to a Warringah one!
BT says:
Wednesday, February 13, 2019 at 9:29 pm
Anyone who thinks that someone over 70 is not capable of using the f-word has clearly never been to a Collingwood match.
I had a friend who was a mad keen Collingwood supporter. He carted his youngins off to the football match; with the aim of indoctrination. They took up soccer; the issue was a women old enough to be grandma telling the umpire to go and get f**ked, the death threats didn’t help either.
Look for Sir Lynton Crosby’s grubby hands in all of this “stop the boats”
nath:
Please stop blaming another for your lapse of judgment.
Somebody, somewhere will, rigjt now, have their arm around ScoMo’s shoulder, telling him, “Mate, you just can’t DO that.”
Mavis, the notion that posting a Downfall parody is a “lapse of judgement” is just that little bit too stupid for me to tolerate.
Rocket Rocket
says:
Wednesday, February 13, 2019 at 9:33 pm
nath
I hadn’t seen that Wentworth Downfall. Looking forward to a Warringah one!
_________________________________
Yes that would be excellent. Although my views on Shorten have become well known and in some cases a lamentable fact of PB lore, I am still looking forward to somewhat of a rout.
I have my election night party nearly completely planned. 10 -14 people, my nephew will act as bartender, finger food but I’m leaning towards a prawn feature. Drinking games of course, but If Abbott, Sukkar and Hunt lose their seats then I have been challenged to drink a special vodka concoction that may turn me back into an 18 year old.
Whatever, William.
Cricket update – South Africa would have been 2/0 but the umpire ruled Sri Lanka had taken longer than the prescribed 15 seconds to ask for a review of an Amla LBW appeal, which would have been given out.
It was demonstrated that in fact it had only been 13 seconds! And right on lunch du Plessis was given not out caught behind – but overturned on DRS. Sri Lanka seem to be getting the wrong end of the stick, but fortunately they have two wickets thanks to technology they would otherwise not have got.
Have you given any thought to not coming here Mavis? It would do the site a world of good.
If Abbott, Sukkar and Hunt lose their seats even I may have a drink. A rare event!
Prince Leonard dies at 93:
https://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/2019/feb/13/prince-leonard-who-seceded-from-australia-to-form-micronation-hutt-river-dies-aged-93
Rocket Rocket
says:
Wednesday, February 13, 2019 at 9:46 pm
If Abbott, Sukkar and Hunt lose their seats even I may have a drink. A rare event!
_____________________________________
If Kevin Andrews loses Menzies, I don’t care whose over, I’m going old school and breaking out the bong I haven’t touched in 10 years!
One of the government’s attack lines about the Banking royal commission is the ALP should apologies for the victims of the Opes Prime scam. Talk about a long bow… Opes Prime went bust at the end of March 2008…. the Rudd government hadn’t got into full governing mood by then (Rudd’s bloody 20/20 summit was still a month away) . The scandal really happened under the Howard government.
Why are you singling me out for special mention, William? How have I infringed your knew interventionist policy?
This is the money shot from Murpharoo:
https://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/2019/feb/13/pm-pushes-off-medevac-loss-by-launching-a-sonic-boom-on-border-protection
Morrison not only put both feet in his mouth, he then proceeded to shoot himself in both of them.
I know our benevolent host has demanded a “nicer” standard of post on his turf, however if he’ll allow
this piece of vitriol:
Scoot Morrison is a fucking disgrace. He is utterly unfit for any office in the land, be it high or low.
Nath – Stranger things have happened. Paul Hammer for the ALP won in Box Hill at the state election. Menzies like the state seat of Box Hill have both change significantly in demographics (more Asian immigrants basically). A stupid deal with one nation and Kevin Andrews will be in trouble.
Partly because I feel guilty about the fact that I didn’t ban you the other night for your attack on Puff over the death of her husband. Even allowing for the fact that this was in my permissive phase, I really don’t know what I was thinking.
Because you’re trying to start a boring niggling argument over nothing. Literally nobody would agree with you that posting a Downfall parody was a “lapse of judgement”.
frednk
says:
I had a friend who was a mad keen Collingwood supporter. He carted his youngins off to the football match; with the aim of indoctrination. They took up soccer; the issue was a women old enough to be grandma telling the umpire to go and get f**ked, the death threats didn’t help either.
__________________________________
Just as well. They were clearly not of the blood. That should have quickened them into fully fledged Collingwood supporters. I remember my first game at Victoria Park when I was 7, the abuse, the screaming, the punch ups, the river of piss flowing out of a broken toilet and running down the terraces near the Yarra Falls End. Beautiful.
Not me. I was polite before it became cool.
Mate, you lost your shape trying to act casual.
Is Prince Leonard getting a State Funeral ?
Is Prince Leonard getting a State Funeral ?
A micro one.
William, I wish to take advantage of the interregnum between your permissive and interventionist phase.
If they bury Prince Leonard on the farm will it be a final act of defiance of WA state government?
It used to be said of Harold Macmillan when he was UK Prime Minister that he was “unflappable”. I guess the opposite of that is “flappable”, a concept which would seem to sum up Mr Morrison rather well. Maybe Eddy Jokovich is right, and Mr Morrison is now managing this medevac issue for the government, flying as usual by the seat of his pants. If that’s so, it would be in character for him to try something “clever”, like moving the people from Manus and Nauru to Christmas Island. But that would seem like a good way of getting the issue straight into the High Court, where defeat for the government could produce more embarrassment. The one thing of which we can be reasonably sure is that Mr Morrison won’t have thought that far ahead: from what we’ve seen so far of his premiership, he never does.
Don’t know how accurate it is but someone on Twitter saying sick refugees in hospital on PNG have been moved suddenly this evening.
I heard a person being interviewed today say a Senior L/NP politician was ‘ a liar’. The interviewer said no, he had twisted the context and not really answered the question so ‘maybe a bit untrue’
How many other cabinet ministers will look into the camera and lie between now and the election.
Aussies still strongly dislike / hate those involved with the Tampa. Remember the ‘core promises’ by Howard?
Aussies remember Abbott for a shrugg of the shoulders when confronted over his 180○ turnaround after the election ‘in lock step with Labor regarding Health and Education spending’.
I can handle someone getting it wrong through a misunderstanding. But a deliberate lie suggests the person involved will stoop to any level and can’t be trusted with any statement.
B.S. Fairman
says:
Wednesday, February 13, 2019 at 9:55 pm
Nath – Stranger things have happened. Paul Hammer for the ALP won in Box Hill at the state election. Menzies like the state seat of Box Hill have both change significantly in demographics (more Asian immigrants basically). A stupid deal with one nation and Kevin Andrews will be in trouble.
______________________________
I know that electorate very well and it’s always surprised me that it wasn’t just a little bit closer, Bulleen and Doncaster are full of houses that were the height of fashionable in the 1970s and 1980s but are now just tired and run down. It’s hardly a wealthy area, well it is on paper.
This is a difficult one:
https://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/2019/feb/13/stateless-mans-court-challenge-to-indefinite-detention-goes-ahead
BK@9:07pm
An adman gone troppo. What could possibly go wrong?”
The ad as usual, which is the case with Morrison
[Mavis Smith says:
Wednesday, February 13, 2019 at 9:44 pm
Whatever, William]
YEAH MAVIS, FAR COUGH!
Time for a new gravatar, showsy?
BB
“Simply put, it suggests that waiting, stopped, near to where you want to park – rather than driving ’round and ’round trawling for an opportunistic vacancy – is on average the winning outcome. ”
Either that or you get George Costanza to park the car for you. As long as you’re not going to a hospital.
nath@9:16pm
Not funny nath. I held my hand regarding Tim Wilson.
The Opes Prime fiasco along with Storm Financial and the raft of others that collapsed taking investor money with them were a result of “Margin Lending” and investing in assets where returns and Capital Gains were promoted at some future time, the expense tax deductible and the investment to reduce tax obligations
These promoted “schemes” gained currency during the 2004-2007 period (both inclusive) due to inflation, inflation which saw the RBA lift interest rates during an election year and during an election campaign, both unprecedented
In an inflationary market place it is easy to “make money”
Look at the performance of the ASX during that 2004-2007 period (both inclusive) – in fact, to emphasise further look at a graph of the ASX over its history
Look at the movement in house prices post 2000 and the pump priming of home construction post the introduction of the GST to evade a technical recession
Look at the movement in private debt from 2000 until 2007 and the GFC and fractured Global Capital Markets seeing banks not lending (if they survived which many did not globally).
Then the inflationary cycle came to a shuddering halt – courtesy of the GFC
Asset values fell and “Margin Calls” were made with the promoters unraveling and failing, taking investor monies with them
The only winners were the derivative short sellers, because asset values were falling
Further, in the matter of Grange Securitues (Lehman Bros) bought to the Court by Local Councils & Ors the judgement put fault with government and deregulation allowing the parties that took that matter to Court to invest in those derivatives (and losing money).
The risk posed was in evidence thru Short Selling and the reasons, so the sub prime debt contagion was on the radar but what was not recognised in mid 2007 was the sheer magnitude, the magnitude threatening Banking because no bank trusted the Balance Sheet of any other Bank so settlements were compromised and Global Capital Markets were accordingly fractured
Hence the Australian government endorsing the paper of Australian banks (for a fee) surviving them and the Australian economy – in fact all of us!
They were serious times
And the likes of Opes Prime, Storm Financial and the raft of others (and I retain the names somewhere in my archive of papers) failed because the inflation generated increases in asset prices collapsed as inflation reversed (and remains where it is today)
Simply, my assessment on a raft of criteria is that the GFC is still impacting our well being including because government supports were withdrawn at precisely the wrong time in 2013 when the doctrine that austerity leads to confidence became the direction of government
Hence the recovery of the ASX stalled and the Cash Rate remains at 1.5% (and projected to fall further because of the economic indicators)
Look at the graphs
They tell the story of where we are today and how we arrived at a point where further interest rate reductions are being countenanced including due to inflation being under band and mired there
This government trades on pointing fingers and shouting in the belief the Australian community are stupid and influenced by graphics (like carrying a booklet – where no one says “can we look inside the cover, please”)
Hopefully Australians are more educated that this dysfunctional government gives them credit for
ShowsOn:
[‘YEAH MAVIS, FAR COUGH!’]
?
If I remember from 2012, 2013, there is a strong seasonal element to boat arrivals. Due to the weather, certain times of the year see very few boat arrivals, regardless of push or pull factors.
Hopefully Australians are more educated that this dysfunctional government gives them credit for
Well, you tell me – is negatively gearing a house equivalent to a margin loan?
Boats tended to ease off in the Monsoon season, December to April.
And it is obvious that a contributor on here who presents as the font of all knowledge has no knowledge of those suburbs which form the seat of Menzies – including the Doncaster Hill developments reaching to the skies
imacca says:
Wednesday, February 13, 2019 at 7:47 pm
citizen @ 7:07
If that tweet by Greg Barnes is true thats a pretty big story in current context, and MASSIVELY damaging to the Libs. Dumping the “turn back” policy for pure political reasons in the lead up to an election??
Its so big i’m going to reserve judgement on the truth of it or not for now.
I think this is an old tweet from a banned twitter acct.
At least when I look up @BarnesGreg it comes up as suspended. The last tweet was from 2014 ish
Rowen dean says Scott Morrison will win the next election and he was right about Donald Trump winning the US president election in 2016
But I don’t agree with the dickhead as I do not like him or Paul Murray