Newspoll: 53-47 to Labor

The second Newspoll for the year finds no continuation of the Coalition’s recent improving trend.

After a period of improving poll results for the Coalition, the latest Newspoll records a tiny shift on primary votes to Labor, but not another to alter their existing lead of 53-47 from a fortnight ago. Labor is up one point on the primary vote to 39%, after a three-point drop last time, while the Coalition is steady on 37%, retaining their two-point gain in the last poll. The Greens are steady on 9%, while One Nation is down a point to 5%, the lowest it’s been in a year. Scott Morrison’s personal ratings are improved, with approval up three to 43% and disapproval down two to 45%, and his lead as prime minister out from 43-36 to 44-35. Bill Shorten is down one on approval to 36% and up one on disapproval to 51%. The poll was conducted Thursday to Sunday from a sample of 1567.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

2,273 comments on “Newspoll: 53-47 to Labor”

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  5. William Bowe @ #1840 Tuesday, February 12th, 2019 – 6:27 pm

    Just as an aside the problems with this blog, hence the scanning past certain names because of repetitive content, is not just down to the contributor who is the subject of the Moderator’s comment

    Big part of the problem #3: people talking about their scrolling past/blocking activities.

    Big call to criticise posters for using a tool that is openly available to all participants and denigrating it as an advice mechanism for others to avoid being wound up by the vindictive and the horrible.

  6. You’ve got to hand it to the Government, after a two month lifeline, the best they could come up with was something that was then circumvented by the addition of one sentence. 😆

  8. peg

    in the spirit of compromise, I withdraw my uncalled for slur of Comrade RDN earlier today. And applaud the solidarity shown by the Greens and the Indies on this critical bill, being as it is, a matter of life or death.

  9. There was speculation on ABC as to whether a motion of no confidence might be called as a result of this vote loss by the government.
    I think that would be a mistake for Labor to cut this short, Libs are holding out for the budget in hope of setting the tone for the election, but if they have to fight the election on traditional economic grounds then Labor can make it about banks, excessive corporate profits vs the erosion of worker rights, low wages growth, casualisation etc.
    If an early election where called it also takes away time for more “independents liberals” to be found and organize for blue ribbon liberal seats.
    The Libs should have gone with Turnbulls timetable and aimed for early (edit)march election, its going to be a slaughter.

  11. My OH has pointed out that in the images of the cross bench (shown in The Guardian live coverage) it is amusing to think how McGowan was kept in place by Banks. McGowan was quite hemmed in.

  12. Pegasus

    That goes both ways. I am happy it’s passed. Let everyone take credit for it.

    That approach will increase Independent chances in LNP seats. 🙂

  13. Big call to criticise posters for using a tool that is openly available to all participants and denigrating it as an advice mechanism for others to avoid being wound up by the vindictive and the horrible.

    I criticised them for talking about it, not using it.

  15. There’s a small chance theyll go crazybrave and try for a border protection election now. Not holding my breath though. Hanging on for grim death till May is more Scomo’s style/.

    Journos should ask ScoMo during his next huff n puff why he is not calling an election right now, if this was so important!

  16. spr
    Mr Bowe’s clean up has motivated me to dip my toe in the water.
    I have every intention of avoiding personal commentary on any Bludger at all, except if treacherous snakes like Morrison, for example, take to posting on the Blog.

  17. sprocket,

    Cheers, not that I remember or noted what you said about RDN.

    When RDN and the Greens have a stance you are against or say some thing not approved of by you and your fellow travellers, I speculate you will be at it again with the slurs.

  18. The Project had one narrative to run ( Labor is weak on border control and that has lost them elections) and are now confused by what is actually happening.(the Colalition have lost control of government)

    They and the rest of the media are running behind

  23. The Guardian

    There’s been some commentary that this is the first time a government has lost a legislative vote in the House since 1929. This is not the case – the Fadden government lost a vote on a Budget amendment in 1941

    Which is why the commentary has been around a “substantive” legislative vote. Which was the Stanley Bruce government in 1929.

    So, to be clear – the Fadden government lost a budget amendment, which was seen as a de facto no confidence motion (lost control of finances) in 1941 and the Bruce government lost a vote to give it more power over industrial disputes, a substantive piece of legislation in 1929.

    Both went to an election.

    Again, Scott Morrison has said he will not do that.

  25. Pegasus @ #1846 Tuesday, February 12th, 2019 – 6:33 pm

    Shorten and Labor owe a big thank you to the cross bench who compromised and voted to support Labor”s amended amendments.

    I think Shorten/Labor realised in the end that given the way they voted in the senate before Christmas, either way Morrison was going to go hard no matter what. So they erred on the side of humanity rather than politics and agreed on easy amendments that the crossbenchers and Greens would accept.

  29. Morrison government suffers first defeat on legislation for 90 years as refugee bill passes

    It’s going to be a long fortnight. There are still six more sitting days that the government has to get through.

    The vote against the government in the House means the legislation will now return to the Senate.

    The government is likely to try and filibuster for as long as possible to try and prevent the Medivac bill from becoming law.

    https://www.smh.com.au/politics/federal/morrison-government-fights-for-its-political-life-in-high-stakes-constitutional-battle-over-refugee-bill-20190212-p50xco.html

  31. William Bowe @ #1862 Tuesday, February 12th, 2019 – 6:39 pm

    Big call to criticise posters for using a tool that is openly available to all participants and denigrating it as an advice mechanism for others to avoid being wound up by the vindictive and the horrible.

    I criticised them for talking about it, not using it.

    This whole blog is about talking.

    Look comrade, I’ve seen this all before. Basically you neglect the commentary because your focus is on the Polling content. Every now and again you get religion and decide something must be done to improve standards. You flail around for awhile, get bored and normal transition resumes.

  32. As adults I think we can all agree. Thanks to Labor and the Crossbenchers Australia is today a fairer and better place to live.

    For all it’s faults our Parliament does work.

  34. Morrison surely wants to go to an election now.

    1. The loss of control of the lower house undermines the credibility of the government which can only be regained by an election.

    2. There is a real risk of more parliamentary pain, perhaps in respect of banking reform bills or extending the sitting of the HoR, or the loss of further MoP which would further undermine the government and just increase the sense of chaos.

    3. Morrison has an election issue to campaign on: border protection/security, with at least a plausible story to tell.

    4. Morrison avoids the risk of various potential world events undermining his promised budget surplus.

    5. The calculus that it is better to hang on and pass a budget and hope that things get better somehow has significant downside because the LNP go to the Election without an issue other than “Vote for us, we are good” which can’t work unless there is a black swan event.

  35. Rocket,
    Meliodosis is prevalent in the North of Aus. It is not something you ever see in the non tropical parts. Really weird bug, only occurs in the Wet and very hard to treat.
    In the early 90s I was ICU reg in Darwin, first time I had ever heard of the disease, I hope the therapy is better now, we had little that worked back then.

  36. One reason the government might be tempted to go to an election now is that three months is a lifetime in politics and the public’s memory, and if the boats don’t start up again in that period, the government’s apocalyptic warnings will have been shown to be so much broken wind. Better to go now, basing the campaign on unfalsifiable fears.

  38. bw

    I do like the Drum.

    Yep, I thought they’d stuff it when they announced a new format but they didn’t. Actually, aside from the set I don’t get what the new format is.

  40. I sympathise with Amy.

    Anthony Albanese and Tony Burke have called a press conference for 6.45pm.

    Scott Morrison has called one for 7pm.

    I have needed to go to the bathroom since 11am, but no one cares about that.

  42. On my twitter feed there are many plaudits being directed to Labor and Shorten for their astute negotiations today to orchestrate the passage of the media coverage bill, even when the government produced their solicitor general’s less than objective (IMHO) advice as an intended blocker.

    Quite a few PBers and tweeters and journos have been in recent days criticising Shorten for “backing down”.

    But in the end, under his leadership Labor have enabled the passing of medivac legislation acceptable to Labor AND the diverse members of the crossbench.

    Reminds me of the skills of the Gillard minority government in being able to herd cats and get lots of legislation passed.

  44. Quick question:

    Which Senate cross benchers are pro the medivac bill
    obviously the greens and labour get the numbers to 35

    who are the other 3+?

  45. Mr Shorten has once again demonstrated why he will make an excellent prime minister.
    He has the ability to bring together people from extremely widely divergent views and passions and to deliver the series of compromises needed to land on a satisfactory outcome.
    I thought Mr Shorten’s speech this afternoon was masterly.
    It started with the core of the issue: ‘looking after sick people’.
    No rational person could argue with that.
    It was practical.
    It was to the point.
    There was no histrionics.
    No shouting.
    Mr Shorten was giving us a practical demonstration of what Prime Minister Shorten will look and sound like.
    Look at the motley crew of cross benchers Shorten brought with him!
    Amazing.
    Look at the passionate far left in his own Party that he brought with him!
    Amazing.
    Even the one Greens in the House, despite the usual snarking about things not being perfect, found himself supporting Shorten.
    Make mistake at all here.
    It was not Phelps, 1/149 votes, who delivered justice for sick refugees.
    It was Shorten.

  46. There’s an element of truth in that, GG, but my “getting religion” doesn’t happen at random. The blog has become insufferable lately because I’ve been too laissez-faire for too long, for reasons you correctly identify. As a result, the partisan bully brigade’s sense of proprietorship over the place has gotten so out of hand that it’s become impossible for me to ignore. It’s very clear to me that my interventionism over the past two days has had positive results, and hopefully I’ll soon be able to fade into the background again.

  47. I would like to say, i totally support the Moderator’s recent actions.

    A number of posters seem to think, erroneously, that posting an alternative view to theirs is “provocative” and justifies personal abuse.

    It is much better to read a blog that is on topic, calmer and less repetitive.

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