BludgerTrack: 53.1-46.9 to Labor

The one new poll for the week maintains the trend of incremental improvement for the Coalition.

First up, please note the threads below this one dealing with state politics in South Australia and New South Wales.

The BludgerTrack poll aggregate continues to inch in the Coalition’s direction with the addition of the Essential Research poll, the only one published this week. Whereas Labor finished 2018 with a lead of 54.4-45.6, the latest result has it at 53.1-46.9, which is a 0.4% shift compared with a week ago. However, this only makes one seat’s difference on the seat projection, with a projected gain for the Coalition in New South Wales. No new results for the leadership ratings this week.

Full results are available through the link below. There is a bit of bug here that often stops the state breakdowns from loading when you click on the tabs – I will get around to fixing this one day, but for the time being, it should work if you do a hard refresh.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

1,337 comments on “BludgerTrack: 53.1-46.9 to Labor”

Comments Page 15 of 27
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  2. Taylor
    Give us some more information about the dirt files, the operatives and how theses files were used.
    It needs to be out there.

  6. Do government ministers usually talk so much about Labor and Bill Shorten? Every response from either Morrison or his front bench to every question is Shorten! Labor!

  8. Lots of winners this morning in the Pyne Bullshit Bingo extravaganza!

    It was a smorgasboard of word salad with an abundance of cliche sauce.

  10. Cassidy talks about “real consequences”.

    Pyne set them out: the government will let boats get through between now and the election.

    Nothing surer. Take that to the bank.

  12. C@tmomma @ #679 Sunday, February 10th, 2019 – 5:18 am

    Christopher Pyne knows full well that legislation can be gotten together quickly. The Coalition have done it for National Security legislation.

    The difference is that the Nat Sec stuff would have been stuff they wanted to implement, so they probably had it ready and were waiting for an excuse to do so.

    Personally I’d like to see it delayed so Labor can draft the legislation.

  17. Full list tonight. 🙂

    Newspoll guesses recorded since: 17:08 AEST (yesterday)
    PB mean: ALP 54.2 to 45.8 LNP
    PB median: ALP 53.0 to 47.0 LNP
    No. Of PB Respondents: 58

    ALP / LNP
    54 / 46 Davidwh
    53 / 47 John Reidy

  19. Grassroots environmental organisations are energised.

    https://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/2019/feb/10/wilderness-society-to-target-abbott-frydenberg-and-hunt-in-federal-election

    The Wilderness Society will target former environment ministers Greg Hunt and Josh Frydenberg and former prime minister Tony Abbott in its first major federal election campaign in a decade.
    :::
    The Wilderness Society campaign will be built around voter contact such as door-knocking and phone-banking, with volunteers drawn from its membership of 30,000.

    “The first wave of the campaign will draw attention to the record of those members of the government who have been most responsible for failed policies and decisions [Abbott, Frydenberg and Hunt],” Schneiders said.

    “The campaign will also focus on a range of other seats across the country which are home to environmentally-concerned everyday Australians who are angry and want leadership and change.”

    Guardian Australia understands those seats include Bonner in Queensland, held by Ross Vasta, and Reid in Sydney, held by Craig Laundy. The campaign will also run in South Australia.

    The Australian Conservation Foundation chief executive Kelly O’Shanassy said in October that its campaign will focus on “middle Australia” by targeting the seats of Chisholm and McNamara – both in Melbourne – and Bonner.

  23. “Pyne set them out: the government will let boats get through between now and the election.

    Nothing surer. Take that to the bank.”

    Kids overboard again. 🙁 Pyne is utter bottom dwelling scum.

  24. Pegasus @ #730 Sunday, February 10th, 2019 – 5:36 am

    Grassroots environmental organisations are energised.

    https://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/2019/feb/10/wilderness-society-to-target-abbott-frydenberg-and-hunt-in-federal-election

    The Wilderness Society will target former environment ministers Greg Hunt and Josh Frydenberg and former prime minister Tony Abbott in its first major federal election campaign in a decade.
    :::
    The Wilderness Society campaign will be built around voter contact such as door-knocking and phone-banking, with volunteers drawn from its membership of 30,000.

    “The first wave of the campaign will draw attention to the record of those members of the government who have been most responsible for failed policies and decisions [Abbott, Frydenberg and Hunt],” Schneiders said.

    “The campaign will also focus on a range of other seats across the country which are home to environmentally-concerned everyday Australians who are angry and want leadership and change.”

    Guardian Australia understands those seats include Bonner in Queensland, held by Ross Vasta, and Reid in Sydney, held by Craig Laundy. The campaign will also run in South Australia.

    The Australian Conservation Foundation chief executive Kelly O’Shanassy said in October that its campaign will focus on “middle Australia” by targeting the seats of Chisholm and McNamara – both in Melbourne – and Bonner.

    Great to see organisations that have chance of being more effectual than the Greens have ever been.

  25. The increasing incarceration of women in Victorian prisons

    https://www.theage.com.au/national/victoria/the-government-is-criminalising-the-very-women-it-should-support-20190207-p50wf6.html

    The number of women held in Victorian prisons has risen dramatically because of the number of prisoners being remanded for short periods, many of whom are later released on bail or get a non-custodial sentence.

    Human rights advocates say the state’s expanding prison system and legal changes that make it tougher to access bail and parole are ensnaring disadvantaged women responsible for relatively minor criminal offending linked to poverty and substance abuse.

    This increase is particularly stark for Aboriginal women, with a 240 per cent jump in the number of female Aboriginal prisoners in Victorian prisons over the past five years.

    There has been a 50 per cent increase in the total number of female prisoners in Victoria over the same period, according to the most recent prison figures from Corrections Victoria. In comparison, the men’s prison population has risen 40 per cent.

    About two-thirds of women whose period of remand had ended were released from prison without needing to serve any more time in jail.

    Ruth Barson, the director of legal advocacy at the Human Rights Law Centre, says Victoria’s justice system is rife with unfairness and inequality.
    :::
    “Women, Aboriginal and Torres Strait Islander people, people with disabilities and people falling on tough times are hit hardest by punitive bail laws that have seen the number of people behind bars in this state skyrocket,” says Ms Barson. “The Andrews government is criminalising the very women it should be providing support to.”

  26. This talk on Insiders about holding back polling day possibly as late as 1 June gives rise to some interesting thought experiments. Under section 11 of the Constitution, the Senate can sit notwithstanding “the failure of any State to provide for its representation in the Senate”. So if the writs were returned by 1 July for some States but not others, whichever government was then in power might be tempted to assemble the Parliament quickly, if it thought that its Senate numbers would be getting worse in a couple of weeks. (This might seem far-fetched, and it is, but it’s not so different from the sorts of things which were being done by lame duck Republican State legislatures in the USA late last year.)

    To obviate this, the States, or at any rate the Labor States, could set their own dates for their Senate elections, possibly opting for 18 May. That would then throw the pressure back on Mr Morrison: he would either have to agree to that date for the House election, or go with another date. My guess is that it wouldn’t be feasible for the AEC to be trying to run a House election a week or two after such Senate elections – they would have to be doing the Senate post-election processing and counting and the pre-poll voting for the House election at the same time, which is far outside any previous experience at a federal election. So Mr Morrison might then use the States’ actions as a pretext for holding off the House election until November. But such an action might also turn out to be the perfect justification for the crossbenchers to support a no-confidence motion, if Parliament is sitting at the time.

    More generally, any surprise factor gets lost as options narrow. Once the deadline for calling a Senate election for 18 May has passed, only 25 May and 1 June will be feasible. Once the 25 May deadline has passed, everyone will know the date is 1 June. But those with long memories may recall that in the runup to the 1972 election the McMahon government delayed announcing the date as long as possible, and only succeeded in making itself look sillier, giving the impression that its top priority was securing another week of pay for its MPs.

  28. Pill testing

    https://independentaustralia.net/politics/politics-display/current-drug-laws-contribute-to-unnecessary-deaths,12359

    Refusal to allow pill testing doesn’t just ignore the evidence from overseas, it’s motivated by a range of ideological and moral failures.

    “We can’t allow pill-testing, because it sends the wrong message about the use of illegal drugs.”

    This is a favourite line of NSW Premier Gladys Berejiklian and is consistently wheeled out by various state politicians around the country as an excuse for inaction in the face of drug-related deaths at music festivals.
    :::
    Whether motivated by self-centred pragmatism or ideological purity, the price that the community, families and individuals are paying for the opposition to pill testing is too high. Politicians must understand that human lives are not something to be traded away for the sake of keeping party members happy (and donating) or to defend a narrow ideal of what is acceptable for people to experience.

    The time for inaction is over.

  31. Thanks BK for the Dawn Patrol.

    You wisely left this item alone.

    https://www.theaustralian.com.au/news/inquirer/latest-forecast-a-climate-of-fear-that-ignores-the-facts/news-story/efb1279bb128db84bd68cbd61848229d
    https://outline.com/pVMwn7

    But in testimony to the US house natural resources committee hearing on climate change this week, retired climate scientist Judith Curry said: “Based on current assessments of the science, man-made climate change is not an existential threat on the timescale of the 21st century, even in its most alarming incarnation. If we believe the climate models, any changes in extreme weather events would not be evident until late in the 21st century. The greatest impacts will be felt in the 22nd century and beyond.”

    Yep, fuggem, we’ll all be dead by then. Let someone else work it out. We’ll be safe in heaven with our money and reputation intact.

    Curry says extreme damage from recent hurricanes plus billion-dollar losses from floods, droughts and wildfires emphasise the vulnerability of the US to extreme events.

    “It’s easy to forget that US extreme weather events were actually worse in the 1930s and 1950s.’’

    So that’s AOK then.

    In rebuttal –

    https://www.skepticalscience.com/misinformers.php

    Information concerning such luminaries as Ian Plimer, Tony Abbott, Malcolm Roberts and many more.

    S**t I’ ve forgotten the authors name – Graham Lloyd -spends some time quoting the redoubtable Ms. Judith Sloan who rates highly presents as simply a fibber

    https://www.skepticalscience.com/skeptic_Judith_Curry.htm

    Read it and weep.

    https://www.skepticalscience.com/argument.php

    It goes down to item 197.

    Fascinating information.

    Why did Mr. LLoyd write the article ❓ Dunno. Is it mostly bullshit ❓ ✔Yep.
    Is it time for fresh coffee ❓ ✔Yep. ☕☕

  35. Anyone who is surprised by what Pyne inferred today re letting the boats arrive really is naive.

    Morrison and co will of course concentrate on this issue. It is all they have and will do anything and everything it takes.

    I posted yesterday that if Cathy McGowan and or other crossbenchers fold on this and support the government then labor should accept any negotiated amendments and move on.

    Why continue to support and vote for something that has no chance of passing ?

    All it will take is one cross bencher to join the government and the Phelps bill is dead.

    Why die in a ditch ?

  37. lizzie
    says:
    Sunday, February 10, 2019 at 9:31 am
    sprocket_
    He’s showing his feminine side?

    Question
    says:
    Sunday, February 10, 2019 at 9:33 am
    Sprocket, he has always liked pastels.
    ________________________________
    One would’ve hoped after William’s comments this morning that this sort of bullshit had stopped by now.

  40. C@tmomma
    says:
    Sunday, February 10, 2019 at 10:01 am
    Confessions @ #708 Sunday, February 10th, 2019 – 9:31 am
    sprocket_ @ #703 Sunday, February 10th, 2019 – 6:30 am
    Why is The Parrott wearing a green suit?
    A LIME green suit no less.
    He was letting his freak flag fly.
    ____________________________
    or this as well

  41. The best tack that Labor can take re THAT Bill is for them to put an Amendment up that allows the Minister to also disallow entry to Australia on extremely bad character grounds. In addition to terrorism grounds.

    I mean, who could rationally argue with that? I know The Greens will, just because, but if I were Kerryn Phelps and I had an eye on keeping my seat at the next election I would accept that Amendment to the Bill as well.

  44. Michael

    The permutations on election dates and the interactions with the States, as you quite rightly point out, are subject to the acquiescence of the State Governors, who act on the advice of their Premiers. If Scotty delays announcing the date, painting all into a corner, another aim of his might come to pass.

    Playing constitutional silly buggers is one way he can get his desired outcome, of remaining PM for as long as possible – which is November 2, 2019. To resolve uncertainties- it would be beholden on the GG to accept Scotty’s advice for a half Senate only election in May.

  45. I know there is postal voting, but I dont want election to take place on may 25.
    My sons big day, and therefore I wont be able to focus on election results

  47. nath

    One would’ve hoped after William’s comments this morning that this sort of bullshit had stopped by now.

    Yes, I was going to post same.

    They will deny it but the innuendo is implicit in those remarks.

  50. Why die in a ditch ?

    Meanwhile asylum seekers and refugees die in offshore detention centres.

    Who cares about real deaths in the real world.

    Who cares when the cynical and amoral race to curry the votes of the xenophobes in marginal electorates for the goal of attaining power for power’s sake is all that matters.

Comments Page 15 of 27
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