BludgerTrack: 53.5-46.5 to Labor

The Coalition’s improved performance in the first Newspoll of the year makes little difference to the BludgerTrack poll aggregate. Also featured: a closer look at a recent union-commissioned poll of Greg Hunt’s seat of Flinders.

This week’s two-point move in Newspoll excited a certain amount of talk about a Coalition recovery, but it hasn’t impressed the BludgerTrack poll aggregate – the result landed pretty much bang on where it was already, being well in line with the only othe result published so far this year, namely the Essential Research poll of a fortnight ago. As such, the aggregate records a 0.2% shift in the Coalition’s favour on two-party preferred, no movements on the primary vote greater than 0.4%, and a one seat gain for the Coalition on the seat projection in Queensland. The leadership trends have Bill Shorten up a bit on net approval, but little change for Scott Morrison either on either his net approval or preferred prime minister lead. Full results through the link below:

I can also provide further detail on the uComms/ReachTEL poll from the seat of Flinders that was conducted last week for the CFMMEU and reported over the weekend. Labor’s two-party lead of 51-49 compares with Hunt’s redistribution-adjusted winning margin of 57.1-42.9 from 2016, and derives from a respondent-allocated preference split that gives Labor 62.7% of minor party and independent preferences. Labor’s share of the preferences in 2016 was 71.1%, which if applied to the primary vote numbers from this poll boosts Labor’s lead to 53-47. Compared with my own post-redistribution estimates from 2016, the primary votes from the poll have Greg Hunt down from 50.7% to 39.4%, Labor up from 27.4% to 35.2%, the Greens down from 11.2% to 9.1%, and One Nation debuting on 5.7%. All of which has been superseded to some extent by this week’s announcement that Julia Banks, the Liberal-turned-independent member for Chisholm, will be running in the seat.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

2,817 comments on “BludgerTrack: 53.5-46.5 to Labor”

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  1. “so that the Coalition can get their spin right over the weekend.”

    C@t…that statment is a serious triumph of optomism over experience. 🙂

    ScoMo has already started the process of fwarking that up.

  2. Seems like the Greens are a real mess these days, RDN has failed in leading his own party, some Greens have even been contemplating starting up another party, Green Independents was the name being thrown around.
    RDN has been almost invisible these days, he should step down to be honest.

  3. Rex Douglas @ #247 Friday, February 1st, 2019 – 10:35 am

    Zoidlord @ #244 Friday, February 1st, 2019 – 2:30 pm

    Hey Greens, another bites the dust:

    The Age
    ‏Verified account @theage
    3m3 minutes ago

    EXCLUSIVE ‘I have been loyal’: Greens stalwart Alex Bhathal quits in disgust
    https://www.theage.com.au/politics/victoria/i-have-been-loyal-greens-stalwart-alex-bhathal-quits-in-disgust-20190131-p50uq8.html?platform=hootsuite

    hmmm… very troubling

    … “The Labor Party’s culture is highly factionalised and brutal but I feel like the Greens have grown another culture which is just as brutal, but also sanctimonious.”

    Nothing that hasn’t been apparent if you’d opened your eyes.

    But, oh, no, the Greens are different. 😆

  5. I think it was last week we had some ALP members on here shooting down any suggestions that factions controlled pre-selections etc etc. The latest factional agreement controlling the Vic ALP seems to shoot down that idea:

    Centre Unity/Industrial Left agreement
    ….This agreement replaces the previous ‘Stability Deal’ which allocated held seats to individual factions over many years, fettering the democratic rights of the membership…

    https://www.crikey.com.au/wp-content/uploads/2018/02/CU-IL-agreement-PDF.pdf

    the agreement then goes on to carve up future pre-selections favouring these factions at the expense of the others! 🙂

  6. imacca @ #250 Friday, February 1st, 2019 – 10:37 am

    “so that the Coalition can get their spin right over the weekend.”

    C@t…that statment is a serious triumph of optomism over experience. 🙂

    ScoMo has already started the process of fwarking that up.

    Surely they’re waiting for the Banks’ response.

    After all they were the ones who initiated the RC. 😆

  8. Whinging and whining may make some people feel superior and provide positive emotions for a short period. However it is useless in the long run. Without being in power and government or atleast the opportunity of this it is very difficult if not impossible to effect change. In my opinion Labor are being effective in forcing change in the government currently and the LNP are not interested in governing but only in trying to oppose and resist Labor in the changes they are forcing. Take the banking royal commission for example. The environment is more difficult and they will need to be in power to make changes in this area. For those who will never be in power and have the responsibility of governing for all people it is easy to be pure and critical of when Labor need to be pragmatic to effect change. Some people it seems are not willing or capable to understand this.

  10. WOW!!!!

    STOP THE PRESSES!!!!

    The Labor Party has factions!

    😆 😆 😆 😆 😆 😆 😆 😆 😆 😆 😆 😆 😆 😆 😆 😆 😆 😆

  23. “I’m sure Peg will link the latest Age article on the latest trouble confronting the Greens, so I won’t bother.”

    Greens collapsing into a heap of shrill disunity……just before an election??

    FFS, did nobody but the ALP learn the lessons of the RGR wars and look at the implications of the current Lib/Nat polling thats down below the s bend??

  27. Bugger !!

    Aunty says ‘ciao’ to Bongiorno
    Still on Aunty, veteran political commentator Paul Bongiorno was initially confirmed by a producer as a regular Tuesday guest on RN Breakfast this year but a few days later was told by host Fran Kelly – who had recruited him four years earlier – that they were looking to “freshen up” the spot…………………….she had to inform him he had been dropped in favour of the Sydney Morning Herald’s David Crowe.

    ………….Canberra sources say the constant carping at the sidelines by right-wing commentators Gerard Henderson and Chris Kenny on top of jibes from the prime minister’s office about Bongiorno’s commentary have put pressure on RN Breakfast.

    https://www.theguardian.com/media/2019/feb/01/clementine-ford-quits-smh-and-age-after-warning-over-twitter-post

  30. To give himself and his mates time to adjust their share portfolios?
    Too bloody right! Looking after their own as usual.Spivs with inside knowledge.They will be on the phone all day to their shonky mates telling them what to do and when to do it.

  31. Given the disastrous state the decades of duopoly Govt has left the environment, it is a great shame the Greens Party has seemingly lost it’s way from an organisational point of view.

    Most of their policies remain more favourable than the duopolies offerings but they must sort out their operational structures.

  32. Rex Douglas @ #282 Friday, February 1st, 2019 – 3:07 pm

    Given the disastrous state the decades of duopoly Govt has left the environment, it is a great shame the Greens Party has seemingly lost it’s way from an organisational point of view.

    Most of their policies remain more favourable than the duopolies offerings but they must sort out their operational structures.

    They should wait till after the election. It will be a much smaller problem then.

  33. Presumably our Border Force Minister has instructed his staff to ensure that no bank executives are allowed to depart Australia over the weekend?

  34. Rex Douglas @ #281 Friday, February 1st, 2019 – 11:07 am

    Given the disastrous state the decades of duopoly Govt has left the environment, it is a great shame the Greens Party has seemingly lost it’s way from an organisational point of view.

    Most of their policies remain more favourable than the duopolies offerings but they must sort out their operational structures.

    Like a child waking up and realising the lolly shop they lived in was only a dream! 😆

  35. Rex Douglas:

    [‘…it is a great shame the Greens Party has seemingly lost it’s way from an organisational point of view.’]

    It is?

    It’s just shocking that the NSW Greens can’t get their act together, the Greens overall close to becoming a spent force.

  36. https://www.smh.com.au/environment/weather/january-was-australia-s-warmest-month-on-record-bureau-says-20190201-p50uz1.html

    “One of the key records that we’ve seen has been the hottest overnight temperature on record – the hottest minimum temperature on record – 36.6 degrees was the lowest it got to [one night] in Borrona Downs in north-west NSW.”

    This is not canary in the coalmine keeling over stuff. This is bloddy great Wedgetail pooing on your head from great height and then trying to rip your hair out with its claws stuff. 🙁

  37. Mavis Smith says:
    Friday, February 1, 2019 at 2:50 pm
    Quoll:

    You really are a sanctimonious twat, Greens thinking they’ve got hegemony over GW. Where were they when Rudd proposed an ETS?
    ——————————————-
    Well I guess the Greens were pondering how to build a solid foundation for ecological survival in Australia whilst the Lib and Lab factions were trying to get their cheap dodgy tent set-up before it collapsed in heap no surprise.

    It doesn’t really matter what obsession PBer’s have with the Green party.
    What matters is whether the ecological systems and services that maintain circumstances for human life and society on earth continue, or not.
    Sanctimony is the Lab PBer’s flag waving here…

  38. “Yes Imacca, but, but…..Labor have factions!”

    OH MY doG!!!!!!!!!! I must now go and have a lie down, curl into a fetal position and sob!!!

  40. Barney in Go Dau:

    [‘What has he got to lose?’]

    You appear to be implying that one must have something at stake before taking an unprincipled stand.

  41. I think it was Frydenberg who said the other day he was sure there would be no leaks of Hayne’s report between its delivery today and publication on Monday afternoon.

    Yeah. Right.

  43. Mavis Smith @ #265 Friday, February 1st, 2019 – 11:50 am

    Where were they when Rudd proposed an ETS?

    Nowhere.

    That’s because Rudd refused to allow them to join the negotiations. All of those dealings wer neutered when Turnbull was rolled as Oppn. Leader anyway. Rudd deciding to negotiate only with the Libs, and Turnbull being rolled are no fault of the Greens.

    There is no evidence at all that the Libs who crossed the floor would still have done so if the Greens had voted with Labor. New Lib leader Abbott would’ve stopped them doing it. Even if they still did cross the floor (and you have to believe in fairies to think they would), Abbott would’ve abolished the ETS upon his ascendancy to the PMship anyway.

    It may make you feel better to blame the Greens, however the real blame lies with the stupidity of Rudd and the perfidy of the Abbott/Minchin/IPA clique.

    Anyway, dwelling on past mistakes is no way to solve the problems of the present or the future.

  44. Quoll:

    Wrong! The Greens thought/think they owned/own the issue. They were/are pissed off with Labor for taking a stance, which would’ve denied them oxygen. The Greens are opportunists writ large.

  45. Mavis Smith @ #290 Friday, February 1st, 2019 – 11:20 am

    Barney in Go Dau:

    [‘What has he got to lose?’]

    You appear to be implying that one must have something at stake before taking an unprincipled stand.

    No, your use of “ballsy” implies doing something dangerous or scary.

    Where is the danger when there are no adverse consequences?

  46. ‘Ms Bhathal says she has been subjected to “relentless organisational bullying” within the Victorian branch, claiming the Greens have a “gross problem with governance and process” that threatens to derail the party.’

    Dark elements??

  47. The ‘Taliban’ faction of the Victorian ALP. 🙂

    the SDA/NUW/Feeney group became known as the “Rebel Right”, sometimes “The Taliban”. The latter nickname did double, politically incorrect duty, referring both to the Shoppies’ social conservatism, and to the base of Turkish and Lebanese votes signed up by Feeney’s numbers man, one Adem Somyurek.

    https://www.crikey.com.au/feature/red-brotherhood-war/

  49. “Australia’s political ageism may be robbing us of our best leaders”

    And their best journalists, too. Shame, Bongiorno, you had an independent brain.

  50. Dan Gullberry:

    [‘That’s because Rudd refused to allow them to join the negotiations.’]

    Why would he? As I said indirectly in my response to Quoll, the Greens can’t be trusted, their very existence depends upon them taking the high ground apropos of climate change – that’s why they wouldn’t come aboard with Rudd’s ETS.

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