The West Australian today reports that Human Services Minister Michael Keenan will be joining the exodus at the election, creating a vacancy in his northern suburbs Perth seat of Stirling. The seat was long highly marginal, but Keenan has held it on mostly comfortable margins since he gained the seat from Labor in 2004.
There is also a uComms/ReachTEL poll in The Australian from the scene of the week’s other big retirement announcements, the Melbourne seat of Higgins. Conducted on Thursday from a sample of 860 for interests who wish to bring about the return of Peter Costello, the poll finds Labor with a two-party lead of 52-48. This compares with a 10.7% margin for retiring Liberal member Kelly O’Dwyer in Liberals-versus-Labor terms, although it’s perfectly in line with how the electorate voted at the election. It was in fact the Greens who finished second in 2016, but the poll suggests that is unlikely to be repeated this time: after exclusion of the 8.4% undecided, the primary votes are Liberal 40.3%, Labor 27.1% and Greens 19.3%.
You are killing me, Rex Douglas!
I can’t debate!?! Says the king of the glib one liner! 😆
Rex I have seen a lot of post stacking it on Shorten; never seem one on policy; perhaps I missed it.
😆
Okay so my dream of a third party candidate in 2020 being someone like Romney or Kasich running and splitting the Republican vote so Dems win was predicated on the third party candidate being an actual Republican, just running as a sane or normal Republican to oppose Trump.
The dynamics change when that 3rd candidate is someone like Howard Schultz who would peel off Democrat voters as well (Schultz is a lifelong Democrat). Therefore I agree with those strategists and commentators who have said that his candidacy would likely help Trump get re-elected, so he should re-think any plans to run.
https://www.theatlantic.com/politics/archive/2019/01/howard-schultzs-independent-run-could-help-trump/581374/
Nath
Having empowered us with your knowledge, wisdom and insights, what do you suppose we do with these empowerments?
Or do you just have a problem?
Jack Aranda @ #1309 Sunday, January 27th, 2019 – 7:23 pm
That’s the trouble with so many people – here on PB as elsewhere. It’s always about the money – “let’s try and minimize cost”. You rarely – if ever – hear people saying “let’s try and minimize greenhouse gas emissions”. Why not? (don’t bother answering – that was a rhetorical question).
But guess which of these two is actually important? 🙁
And am I a prophet in the wilderness? I think not. I know how people here love quoting RenewEconomy articles, so try this one …
https://reneweconomy.com.au/how-100-renewables-can-create-jobs-and-even-save-the-gas-industry-95126/
Zoomster gets to parade around here as an ALP figure of importance when the fact is no one in the ALP gives a shit about areas that don’t deliver seats. So you can play pretend in the country side, and I’m sure the members determine the candidates up there, because no one gives a shit about them. If those regional seats became marginal you would be on the receiving end of a branch stack that would have you crying on here.
BK
On the up side doing a good job during ‘interesting’ times will mean bonus career brownie points.
Just think, when Chinese security check on his contacts the poor buggers could end up discovering PB . That’ll get them wondering WTF?
No, nath, it is you who is obsessed by it and keeps bringing it up. Like it’s really important. When it’s just a part of simply making political sausages. Which every politician in every political party since time immemorial has engaged in. Bill Shorten’s no different, better or worse.
It is essential to get the ugly, incompetent right wing Coalition out of office. They are malevolent and destructive, doing enormous damage to the Australian community, its economy, its institutions and its soul.
The only other game in town is Labor. Sorry Greens, but thank you for directing your preferences to Labor.
Now is is Labor perfect? No, of course not. Do I agree with all of their policies and positions? No, but as I’ve said here before, if I did, it would probably be unelectable.
What about its internal processes? Well, actually, I couldn’t give a stuff. Over the years they’ve turned up some great MPs, Ministers and PMs, plus a few duds. That’s life.
Be that as it may, the worst Labor Government is a vast improvement on the best Coalition Government, especially when the Coalition is dominated by its hard right.
Vote 1 Labor, ‘N’ Liberal or National, where N = number of candidates.
EDIT: If after all is said and done you prefer Green, fair enough, but your best chance to have your views respected and considered is to defeat the Coaltion. Be sure to put Labor ahead of Coalition in your preferences and put as much energy into criticising the Coalition as you do Labor.
C@tmomma
says:
Sunday, January 27, 2019 at 7:59 pm
No, nath, it is you who is obsessed by it and keeps bringing it up. Like it’s really important. When it’s just a part of simply making political sausages. Which every politician in every political party since time immemorial has engaged in. Bill Shorten’s no different, better or worse.
__________________________________
I would say that’s underselling him a bit, he’s better than most at doing it. In this case I’m responding to Zoomster’s statement that Shorten got pre-selection by visiting every member and knocking on doors! A complete whitewash of events and the stuff of fairy tales.
Confessions @ #1324 Sunday, January 27th, 2019 – 7:36 pm
That’s not Joe Cocker. That’s Ian Dury and the Blockheads. But very appropriate to PB! 🙂
P1
Stop rubbing it in, C@momma has already pointed out my ‘fox paw’ 🙂
Jeez these Greens and Socialist Party camp followers get nasty, don’t they? Just a sign of weakness.
Actually, there is some use out of having regional ALP members and candidates, it makes money for the party due to federal funding, and of course it aids in Senate contests. Those are the only reasons they even bother with them.
P1:
I know it isn’t Joe Cocker. And I’ve never heard of Ian Dury before today.
I do like the idea that party aparatchiks, famous for playing their cards close to their chest and weighing their every word, suddenly become all open and forthcoming when a journo tells them they’re being interviewed for a book or a documentary.
Gone in an instant are those years of spin. Gone are their basic instincts to cover their own a*ses and make themselves look good. No, in that instant, the former pollie/operator becomes like a child, honest and open and trusting, only wanting to ensure said journalist has the truth and nothing but the truth.
A mate of mine was interviewed extensively for a book covering events he was involved in (totally by coincidence written by a friend of my sister in law’s, so I got to see the sausage being made from both ends..) After the book was published, he was approached by another Labor mate at a function.
“Read that book,” he said. “Funny, that’s not the way I remember things happening.”
“Your memory is wrong, comrade,” the other retorted. “What really happened doesn’t matter now. It’s what’s in the book that counts. That’s history, mate.”
Well, it’s just a shame that in 2013 the consensus among the self-proclaimed Labor faithful around here was that this particular bit of advice was best ignored.
“Do as I say, not as I do”, indeed.
Thunder, Rain and Lightening in Sydney imho.
#WeatherPB
..I would also point out that, prior to every election, 150 preselections are carried out by the Labor party. Usually, only half a dozen or so make news. That’s because they’re the exceptions.
The others play out much as frednk and I have described – they’re the norm.
I remember Margo Kingston from the “Not happy, John” days. Wouldn’t be surprised if her criticism of Howard was a factor in her ‘ moving on’ . There was also an excellent ANU political commentator ,
Dr Michael McKinley, formerly from NZ, who had a regular ABC spot and he was also quietly critical of Howard’s policies and he too was dropped. Think he still writes pieces on John Menandue’s site.
nath @ #1214 Sunday, January 27th, 2019 – 6:05 pm
And this is where nath outs himself as a Tory. Undeniably so. Because EVERY Left of Centre political party supports the Union Movement.
Don’t be jealous, nath.
If you could be bothered actually doing something useful, you might get to achieve something, too.
nath @ #1005 Sunday, January 27th, 2019 – 8:01 pm
Misrepresentations and mistruths are not uncommon with certain Labor partisans here I’ve noticed recently.
I’m still waiting for an apology from a few of them…
itsthevibe @ #1362 Sunday, January 27th, 2019 – 5:05 pm
This makes no sense, sorry.
zoomster @ #1367 Sunday, January 27th, 2019 – 8:08 pm
He’s too busy thinking he’s all that on PB.
zoomster
says:
Sunday, January 27, 2019 at 8:06 pm
..I would also point out that, prior to every election, 150 preselections are carried out by the Labor party. Usually, only half a dozen or so make news. That’s because they’re the exceptions.
The others play out much as frednk and I have described – they’re the norm.
________________________________________
Well lets assume that 60 don’t count because no one is really fighting for them because they are unwinnable. That leaves you with 90. A lot of the marginals would not be significantly stacked because for all that effort you need to be pretty certain you are going to get it. So of the 50 safe ALP seats, there would be a lot of stuff going on, probably not a lot of it gets reported, and of course, many are already stacked and squared away with a sitting member. So there are only so many up for grabs every political cycle.
Rex Douglas @ #1369 Sunday, January 27th, 2019 – 8:09 pm
I apologize unreservedly for ever thinking you were on the progressive side of politics! 🙂
Peter Fuller @ 7:30
“his motive, Whitlam’s antagonist had knocked off a relative of the potential respondent for pre-selection 23 years earlier! Long unforgiving memories are characteristic of a particular political type.”
Thanks for your interesting anecdote about pre-selection shenanigans, and the long term hurt they can give some sensitive souls. Many here have been involved , and have condemned them or applauded them, depending on who was the victim.
Apart from noting that Nath has refused to confirm or deny my speculation for his animus against Mr.Shorten, I renew my vow not to engage with him. The same goes for RD’s venomous outpourings, or DTT’s vacuous vapourings. Wayne , on the other hand, is a practical joker, who must get amusement at the reactions his harmless silliness provokes
I had forgotten until reminded by my colleague and the former secretary of the Hunter Hill’s branch of the ALP that Zali worked as a receptionist while studying law.
It might be a good idea for her to walk up and down the beaches and get up to the area east of the Roseville bridge where Abbott is pretty dominant.
‘Zoomster’s statement that Shorten got pre-selection by visiting every member and knocking on doors!…’
Not exactly what I said, nath. Learn to read.
I said that I knew that he visited talked to every member. He did.
Rex Douglas @ #1368 Sunday, January 27th, 2019 – 8:09 pm
Don’t hold your breath. No apology will ever be forthcoming from me. Your spite towards federal Labor and Bill Shorten is legendary and your whole raison d’etre on PB is to pour bucketloads of scorn over us and every misstep Labor makes, day in, day out.
I am going for Labor 56 Coalition 44 with all the desertions and stuff ups it could be even better but I will not tempt faith, stay alert we need more lerts
Michael Pascoe
@MichaelPascoe01
Michael Pascoe Retweeted
A further mystery is who funded the other $1.24 million “production costs”. Ratings would have justified advertising revenue of SFA. https://twitter.com/joshgnosis/status/1088626786332639232 …
Rex
Not sure what we’re meant to be apologising for.
It’s probably important to remember that you started demanding these apologies because you thought it was unreasonable for someone to be asked to apologise.
These days John Howard appears more like Young Mister Grace than the secret weapon brought in to manage Berejiklian’s rock star election campaign.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=p6ddSA9lrkc
The fact is that every safe and fairly safe ALP seat is subject to branch stacks to determine pre-selection and even some marginal seats too. Of course there are many ALP members who live in seats that don’t count and they can continue to exercise their rights completely ignorant at what occurs in seats that do matter. They are free to play pretend and dress ups and cavort around as if they are a member of a functioning democratic party. But it’s all make-believe and a bit of fun isn’t it?
zoomster @ #1379 Sunday, January 27th, 2019 – 8:16 pm
He reckons he was much maligned when he said Emma Husar should be ‘managed out’ of the Labor Party as a result of the, now proven to be false, scandalous accusations made about her behaviour in Jason Clare’s parliamentary office.
He’s trying to rewrite history over it and is thus demanding apologies from those of us who condemned him for it, because it wasn’t a nasty thing to say about her at all, apparently. Or so he is trying to make us think by referring back to a quote he made with that in it. Completely decontextualised, of course.
Nath
You are a bitter loser.
Abandoned as a child, found out you were a mistake, ostracized as a underprivileged child, under achiever academically, under valued at work, poorly paid, overlooked despite your brilliance?
Vote Labor little fella we’ll look after ya!
Gregory Korte
Verified account @gregorykorte
Jan 26
Gregory Korte Retweeted Nixon Foundation
The Nixon Foundation is worried that at association with Roger Stone might be besmirch the reputation of the 37th president.
A look around the States.
.
.
An overseas visitor asked whether it was worthwhile travelling around Australia or whether all the states were much the same…………..Then I sketched a rough outline of our demography.
Tasmania is exodus country. Everyone is from somewhere else but once they arrive they turn locavore. They keep bees, craft their own beers and share their garden produce with the chef who swapped the two-hat restaurant in Melbourne for a converted pig shed in the hills. Some are preppers……………
https://outline.com/WSsj4K
Geoff Pearson
@GCobber99
38s38 seconds ago
Wilcannia became the third largest river port in Australia. Look what greed, corruption and a total incompetence of federal and state governments have done
Gippslander
says:
Apart from noting that Nath has refused to confirm or deny my speculation for his animus against Mr.Shorten, I renew my vow not to engage with him.
_________________________
I deny it Sir, most completely. I have never had relations with that man, not in the slightest. I do recall seeing him a couple of times at the Portsea Polo events in around 2001-2003 where he was enjoying some excellent French champagne at the pavilion with some of Melbourne’s business elite. I was there to do some clowning, and not at all engaged in elitist activities.
Victorian Labor confident of gaining five federal seats;
– Dunkley (Notionally Labor already due to rebalance)
– Corangamite, 0% margin
– Latrobe, 2.4% margin
– Chisholm, 3.4% margin
– Deakin (Michael Sukkar), 6.6% margin
Union movement arguing Flinders (Greg Hunts ) on 7.1% margin and Higgins (Kelly O’Dwyer’s old seat) should be targeted.
No mention Casey, 4.3% margin held by the speaker Tony Smith, in theory he should get smaller swing against him, but who knows.
Another possible outside chance is Aston on 7.4% swing, is held by Alan Tudge, who was ranked #14 on Getups hitlist of hard right conservatives, 3rd in Vic behind Hunt and Sukkar.
https://www.canberratimes.com.au/politics/federal/labor-confident-of-landing-five-liberal-seats-at-election-20190127-p50tyo.html
nth is sprouting bullshit again.
Exhibit A:
“The fact is that every safe and fairly safe ALP seat is subject to branch stacks to determine pre-selection and even some marginal seats too”
Have always been curious as to how Kimberly Kitching became a Vic Senator.
Went through a selection process or a captains pick ?????
Kimberley Kitching has been brilliant on Twitter and in Senate Estimates. A worthy choice for Labor in the Senate.
nath chooses to not point out that Bill Shorten was married to a former Liberal politician’s daughter and was probably at the Polo with her. Which, of course, nath has construed negatively as Bill climbing the social ladder, as opposed to, you fall in love with who you fall in love with.
C@tmomma
says:
Sunday, January 27, 2019 at 8:30 pm
Kimberley Kitching has been brilliant on Twitter
__________________________________
🙂
Again, you hear of preselections such as Kitching’s because they’re the exception.