The West Australian today reports that Human Services Minister Michael Keenan will be joining the exodus at the election, creating a vacancy in his northern suburbs Perth seat of Stirling. The seat was long highly marginal, but Keenan has held it on mostly comfortable margins since he gained the seat from Labor in 2004.
There is also a uComms/ReachTEL poll in The Australian from the scene of the week’s other big retirement announcements, the Melbourne seat of Higgins. Conducted on Thursday from a sample of 860 for interests who wish to bring about the return of Peter Costello, the poll finds Labor with a two-party lead of 52-48. This compares with a 10.7% margin for retiring Liberal member Kelly O’Dwyer in Liberals-versus-Labor terms, although it’s perfectly in line with how the electorate voted at the election. It was in fact the Greens who finished second in 2016, but the poll suggests that is unlikely to be repeated this time: after exclusion of the 8.4% undecided, the primary votes are Liberal 40.3%, Labor 27.1% and Greens 19.3%.
1,544 comments on “Departure lounge”
So the Greens are outpolled by 3 wackos, Hanson, Palmer & Katter. No wonder they are upset tonight.
Townsville always did have the rep as redneck central.
Bob Katter’s voting record and attendance record in parliament:
Voting record in full: https://theyvoteforyou.org.au/people/representatives/kennedy/bob_katter
Perfect bed mates?
“ON 9 (-4.5) KAP 9 (+2.1) UAP 8 (+7.6)”
Clive’s getting bang for his bucks.
See my tweet for an image of the front page of The Australian. It has the figures for the seat Newspoll of Herbert, its hi-resolution enough if you zoom in on the image you can read the words.
Who’s upset? Certainly not me.
You really must stop projecting your emotions onto me, but then you’re not alone in persisting in doing this.
Sad to see Sam booted from celebrity. Couldn’t stand him as a politician but warmed to him in the jungle. His attempt at skinny dipping hilarious.
Seems to have paid a heavy price, hope he gets back on his feet.
Palmer – Deep pockets can buy an election outcome.
Hooray for democracy.
Herbert, from the first preference I would have thought it would be 52/48 to Labor, how was it determined?
Geez Pegasus has been drinking at the fountain of bitterness tonight.
Try to point out some on the ground insights in Herbert and how the cookie may crumble Election Day and I become Public Enemy number one.
Anyway. Having a dig at me will save some other poor bludger from the bitterness.
You wound me to the core.
May you have sweet dreams of a Greens annihilation.
I will have sweet dreams of a kinder, gentler, more humane and compassionate society and world.
So how many high-profile independents is that now in Warringah?
Hunt is now in all sorts in Flinders with a new poll at 51-49 Labor. Hunt’s primary has collapsed from 51.6 at the 2016 election to 36.8. Julia Banks may run in Flinders. Hunt has a real problem with female voters, 32.7 % of women said they would vote for the Liberal Party compared with 41.2% of men. Hunt’s role in the August leadership challenge caused 47.8% of those polled said they were less likely to vote for the sitting member. Hunt you are a total imbecile because you created this whole mess.
I admire your stoicism Peg. Not sure it will be shared by your fellow windmill tilters.
Latest sweep update on the question”Who will be the next Coalition MP to quit?”
Steve Davis-Julie Bishop
Zoidlord——NT or QLD MP
Late Riser—–Michelle Landry
Player One -Scott Morrison(not his own choice)
Rex Douglas–Kevin Andrews
Confessions- Craig Laundy
Goll—— Stuart Robert ?
Bennelong Lurker–Craig Laundy
Kambah Mick–Angus Taylor
Dave from Wagga–Michael McCormack
Our dreams transcend I believe.
Your problem is you’re travelling in a P76 and will need to find a different path to achieve your dreams.
Typical Green claiming ownership of “a kinder,gentler, more humane and compassionate society and world”
Peg, all a little too rose coloured glasses to be taken seriously, and typically snipey.
Most people realised the fate of the P76 dream some time ago.
No not Peg, just get back on the keyboard and bash the duopoly. Which is kind of sad for the Greens as it’s all they have.
It’s passion and the desire for a better society and world.
It is better to die on your feet than live on your knees.
Never give up!
Live in hope.
“Even a purely moral act that has no hope of any immediate and visible political effect can gradually and indirectly, over time, gain in political significance.”
“Hope is a state of mind, not of the world. Hope, in this deep and powerful sense, is not the same as joy that things are going well, or willingness to invest in enterprises that are obviously heading for success, but rather an ability to work for something because it is good.
Tony Abbott will use his “megaphone” as a former prime minister and stoke fears of another carbon tax when he writes to voters and asks them to back him in what is shaping as the toughest challenge to his seat in the 25 years he has held it.
Former Olympic skier and barrister Zali Steggall yesterday announced she would challenge Mr Abbott in the seat of Warringah in the upcoming federal election, launching her campaign with a team of co-ordinated volunteers in aqua shirts and putting climate change squarely at the centre of her pitch.
Election analyst Antony Green told The Australian Ms Steggall was a “formidable candidate” and “the type of independent who can win”. “She has a high profile and a substantial track record of achievements in life,” he said
“I think of her as a Cathy McGowan type, really. Warringah never goes to preferences so whoever stands has got to eat into the Liberal Party primary vote and get Abbott below 50 per cent if they want to win.”
Former independent candidate and one-time host of Australian Idol James Mathison stood against Mr Abbott in the 2016 election and received swings to him of up to 19 per cent in addition to then Nick Xenophon Team candidate Marie Rowland, whose own vote was more than 6 per cent across the seat.
James Mathison, who stood as an independent against Tony Abbott in the 2016 election, received swings to him of up to 19 per cent. He has thrown his support behind Ms Steggall.
Mr Mathison has thrown his support behind Ms Steggall, calling her “the real deal”, and urged everyone to “corral around the best independent candidate”.
“The electorate has two very different sides and it is hard to have a foot in both camps, but she definitely does,” he said. “She is strong, female and highly educated. I am pragmatic, I think I am probably too far-left to win.”
Public education advocate and feminist writer Jane Caro has confirmed she will not be running, but says she will support any independent who is prepared to prioritise climate change.
“I am not running and I am supportive of any independent who is prepared to prioritise climate change,” she said.
Ms Steggall will oppose changes to negative gearing and place emphasis on climate change in her campaign, naming environmentalist Tim Flannery as a key supporter.
Anthony Reid, who worked on Kerryn Phelps’s successful Wentworth by-election campaign, will run Ms Steggall’s campaign, and Louise Hislop — the former president of grassroots anti-Abbott group Voices for Warringah — has been installed as operations manager and co-campaign manager.
The lawyer and former slalom world champion said she would fight the hard-right incumbent Tony Abbott from the “sensible centre” of politics.
“It’s time for real action on climate change,” Ms Steggall said.
“We want to make sure we lead the economic boom with new technology, renewable energy, and (that) we bring jobs to Warringah.”
She said she would release a climate change policy during the campaign, and was also “determined to bring down the price of power” through greater use of renewable energy and hydro storage.
“I want to beat Tony Abbott, who has been a handbrake on Australian progress on many fronts but, particularly, effective action on climate change,” Ms Steggall said. “I support sensible centre economic policies for a strong, stable economy and will resist proposed changes to negative gearing, franking credits and capital gains tax.
“People are also worried about the state of politics in this country, the lack of compassion on human rights, how rising congestion is disrupting our commutes, mental health and domestic violence.”
Mr Abbott will write to voters in the electorate in the coming week, telling them he is “proud of everything” achieved in the seat.
“But there’s much more to do; and no one can fight harder for you and for our area than someone with the big megaphone that only a former PM has,” he says in an electorate mailout.
He also revives the effective carbon tax campaign that swept him from opposition leader to power in 2013 as prime minister.
“My other pledge is to do everything I humanly can to protect you from Labor’s tax attack that will unfairly target people in Warringah with above-average incomes and assets,” he says.
Am I being too cynical in thinking this announcement is carefully timed by Gladys?
The plant was privatised by the LNP Gov’t (just why was never explained) but we will now pay a $30 pa flat levy to the new owners.
So even if you are socially conscious, or just trying to save money, done all the water saving measures, and are positively frugal with your water, you will pay the same levy as the family with the swimming pool who all take 20 minute showers.
But wait…… there’s more
Three weeks ago Gladys approved mining under the catchment, which results in water loss of 3.5 million litres a day.
So we are indirectly paying the coal miner’s water bills.
Pity our water bills won’t arrive before the election to remind us all that we are paying AGAIN for the desal plant and for miners to take our precious water.
The NSW state election can’t come too soon.
(Apologies for the rant. I’ll now go back to listening to the gentle sound of rainwater filling my tanks)
There has been speculation over the future of a raft of high-profile Coalition MPs. Aged Care Minister Ken Wyatt, who colleagues speculated might be preparing to exit parliament, told The Australian through a spokesman yesterday that he was “dedicated to holding his seat of Hasluck and continuing to serve”.
Immigration Minister David Coleman also sought to cool speculation that he might pull the pin, saying he was preselected for his Sydney seat of Banks and “will run in the 2019 election”.
Mr Laundy, a close confidant of Mr Turnbull, is widely expected to announce his resignation soon, despite pleas from Mr Morrison for him to remain.
Colleagues believe Ms Bishop, the former foreign minister, will also retire but think she is delaying her announcement to ensure the best chance for her preferred replacement, AsiaLink director Erin Watson-Lynn, in the preselection battle that would follow.
I’m calling it a night. I’ll harvest any new Newspoll guesses in the morning and post updates later in the day. Thank you all for today’s entertainment, and good night. 🙂
“Do you see over yonder, friend Sancho, thirty or forty hulking giants? I intend to do battle with them and slay them.” ― Miguel de Cervantes Saavedra
Goodnight LR, and goodnight all.
Night L.R. and Maude Lynne
May you dream of wonderful things.
Don’t worry Little Grouper Boy Earlwood, I’m around keeping an eye on you right wing stooges!
Please sir, if I may,
i dont agree with your ‘pox on both houses’ analysis. But you have every right to post that opinion. People will disagree, sometimes fervently. That is ok too.
It all makes up the PB salad.
BLOODY KB WONT TURN OFF CAPS.
cRAIG lAUNDY NEXT TO GO
AAAAAAAAAAAAAA AAAA AAAAAAAAAAAVVVVV XXX XXXXXXXX
WHATS UP WITH THIS DAMN BLUE TOOTH KB? IT WON’T TURN OFF CAPS LOCK
Just a little more kindling for the energy debates:
Battery Killers: How Water Heaters Have Evolved into Grid-Scale Energy-Storage Devices
Seat polls. Bah!
I suspect Herbert might be on the lower end of swings to Labor, but a positive swing nonetheless. Other than that,
Seat polls. Bah!
So how many high-profile independents is that now in Warringah?
All the other names tossed up or confirmed were never a serious threat.
Hunt you are a total imbecile because you created this whole mess.
Oh Mikey, Hunt has been a total imbecile for much longer than that.
On the PVs, the LNP cannot win Herbert. The pref allocations will be arbitrary…the high minor party vote is an anti-Lib expression. Labor would very easily win on these numbers.
Upnorth @ #1483 Sunday, January 27th, 2019 – 10:01 pm
Herbert is a totally unpredictable seat, and could well go against trend.
Not sure that Palmer WILL be blamed for the refinery shut down, given that he was NOT in charge at the time, but his business was in the hands of an administrator. Given he is in the money again he is keen to re-open it. I have a niggling feeling that Labor will be blamed for the refinery along with Newman. I may be wrong on this since i am far away and perhaps Upnorth might comment.
Katter’s popularity is also NOT a surprise. What was a surprise was his losing votes to PHON. His son Robbie K is a sort of centrist in the Qld Parliament, and they did unload Anning. Katter snr clearly had no idea about Anning when he took him on. This is about Katter Snr, he has many, many oddities but racism is not one of them. Indeed his father took a strong stand AGAINST USA segregation in WWII (the US army wanted to segregate black and white soldiers), and refused to allow it in his businesses.
Did anyone else notice that in that Seat poll in Herbert, 93% of respondents say a pox on the Greens?
NEW POLL Liberal turncoat Julia Banks could run against prominent minister Greg Hunt in the Peninsula seat of Flinders, as a new poll shows the party’s vote in the electorate has crashed.
I think we are heading for a May election which will fly by