Departure lounge

The retirement of another senior Liberal in a loseable seat, and a poll suggesting Labor could pull off a boilover in Higgins.

The West Australian today reports that Human Services Minister Michael Keenan will be joining the exodus at the election, creating a vacancy in his northern suburbs Perth seat of Stirling. The seat was long highly marginal, but Keenan has held it on mostly comfortable margins since he gained the seat from Labor in 2004.

There is also a uComms/ReachTEL poll in The Australian from the scene of the week’s other big retirement announcements, the Melbourne seat of Higgins. Conducted on Thursday from a sample of 860 for interests who wish to bring about the return of Peter Costello, the poll finds Labor with a two-party lead of 52-48. This compares with a 10.7% margin for retiring Liberal member Kelly O’Dwyer in Liberals-versus-Labor terms, although it’s perfectly in line with how the electorate voted at the election. It was in fact the Greens who finished second in 2016, but the poll suggests that is unlikely to be repeated this time: after exclusion of the 8.4% undecided, the primary votes are Liberal 40.3%, Labor 27.1% and Greens 19.3%.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

1,544 comments on “Departure lounge”

  1. nath
    I don’t come to bag Labor. You do. What is striking is you general lack of knowledge when it comes to Australian politics. Yes I am unusual in that i have seen inside both major parties. You obviously haven’t had a close look at either.

  2. The idea that the spirit of a place could be captured in an individual is an intriguing one and surely Pauline Hanson is a great exemplar. I mean, these people are still not putting fluoride in their water supply:

    Queensland: The toothless state could well one of former LNP leader Campbell Newman’s key achievements, after he, among a litany of controversial decisions in his three years at the state’s helm between 2012 and 2014, decided to dump mandated statewide water fluoridation.

    https://www.news.com.au/national/queensland/queensland-councils-abandon-water-fluoridation-en-masse-against-dentists-advice/news-story/650843eb023af9c562e12a865af4394b

  3. frednk

    The fact you and some of your fellow travellers have such a low tolerance of the dissenting views of a handful of posters and can only respond to them with ad hominems speaks volumes.

  4. frednk
    says:
    Sunday, January 27, 2019 at 10:07 pm
    nath
    I don’t come to bag Labor. You do. What is striking is you general lack of knowledge when it comes to Australian politics.
    ___________________________
    You know I don’t claim to be an expert but neither would I describe myself as having a ‘striking’ ‘lack of knowledge when it comes to Australian politics’. If you’d care to demonstrate where I have displayed this I’d be interested.

  5. frednk @ #1443 Sunday, January 27th, 2019 – 10:04 pm

    Pegasus
    I am tolerated.
    I Joined because shorten was trying to expend the membership base. I think that is a good thing.
    I have a lot of respect for Cat she got it right first time.

    Thank you, frednk. 🙂
    (Sorry, been offline due to thunderstorm in our neck of the woods) has Pegasus been kvetching again?

  6. Pegasus

    ‘ad hominems’

    ________________________________

    You seem to be a bit obsessed with this concept (or at least with you and a couple of others here as victims).

  7. Pegasus
    You post endless attacks on the Labor party. But it hasn’t changed my view. The Greens are irrelevant and when Labor needs their support on environmental issues they turn around and they are not there. They are over in the Liberal sandpit working out how to undermine it.

  8. Nath it seems you dislike Labor…………what is your back ground in the alp and left or were expelled?
    part of the greens or International socialists?

  9. #WeathonPB: it’s a steamy tropical night, 25 degrees, steady rain, sheet lightning and rumbling thunder. Briefly or Boerwar could write a better description.

  10. Sniper and the bullshit artist have been given free hits on PB tonight and the result.
    Both have advanced the cause that they so despise. Keep up the good work ya losers.

  11. GhostWhoVotes
    ‏ @GhostWhoVotes
    2m2 minutes ago

    #Newspoll Federal Seat of Herbert 2 Party Preferred: ALP 51 (+1 since election) LNP 49 (-1) #auspol

  12. frednk

    Most of what I post relates to a pox on the political duopoly.

    I understand the agenda of those who do not want to acknowledge this fact.

  13. DTT: “Those figures were all in US dollars. Why do you not do a bit of reading on events post 1998. Is that when you finished your Economics AO1 unit and it is fixed in stone in your mind?”

    The US dollar value of the debt is not relevant, what matters is the currency in which the debt is written and in which it must be repaid. Furthermore, if it were the case that the external debts of all three countries are written entirely in US dollars then the situation is not symmetric because only one of the three is the issuer of the US dollar. To make a somewhat reasonable comparison the correct approach in each case is to break down each amount into debt written in the local currency and debt written in any other currency. There is a further problem in that the US dollar is (uniquely) the reserve currency with the consequence that uncertainty leads to increased demand for T-Bills, this creates an unusual situation in that US Govt debt (in $US T-Bills) is rather more demand driven than any other currency (where debt issuance is driven by financing needs). Finally the figures you have given cover only the principal of the debt and do not include the coupon / interest rate which determines the debt servicing burden.

  14. Pegasus says:
    Sunday, January 27, 2019 at 10:34 pm
    TPOF

    Laborite haters who appear to be obsessed
    Forever in your mind

    ________________________________

    A bit ad hominem isn’t that? Or are you so pure that you can only be sinned against, not sinning?

  15. GhostWhoVotes
    ‏ @GhostWhoVotes
    52s52 seconds ago

    #Newspoll Federal Seat of Herbert Primary Votes: ALP 32 (+1.5 since election) LNP 32 (-3.5) ON 9 (-4.5) KAP 9 (+2.1) UAP 8 (+7.6) GRN 7 (+0.7) #auspol

  16. Occassional 62 yo poster … at a social policy level I agree with much of the Green agenda, but their economic and foreign policy agenda make them unelectable. So the ALP have my vote, not perfect but the pragmatic choice. And I think they mean business and will get into social policy once elected.
    Take the best of Dan Andrews and Jacinda Arden and be bold….

  17. Goll,

    What a pity you and your fellow travellers have to share this cyberspace with the likes of me, nath, RD AND DDT.

    I understand your need for a safe space where you and your like-minded alp supporters can congregate to vent and deride the millions of non-labor supporters. 24/7 uninterrupted.

  18. Maybe the poll in Herbet is because thats the seat Clive Palmer is going to run in (according to wikipedia).
    Doubt he will have any relevance this time though

  19. Steve777 says:
    Sunday, January 27, 2019 at 10:22 pm
    #WeathonPB: it’s a steamy tropical night, 25 degrees, steady rain, sheet lightning and rumbling thunder. Briefly or Boerwar could write a better description.
    ———————————————
    25 degrees, 25 degreees you lucky lucky bastard.

  20. “So the ALP have my vote, not perfect but the pragmatic choice. And I think they mean business and will get into social policy once elected.”

    Pragmatism rules. To get anything done, you have to get elected first.

  21. Re Herbert. A little Bird told me Katter will preference ALP in Herbert in return for ALP in his seat and a few others.

    Could save O’Toole.

  22. quick Newspoll guesses update
    PB mean: ALP 54.2 to 45.8 LNP
    PB median: ALP 54.0 to 46.0 LNP
    No. Of PB Respondents: 27
    since 1800 hours (AEST)
    ALP / LNP
    55 / 45 booleanbach
    55 / 45 Fozzie Logic
    52 / 48 grimace
    55 / 45 pica
    53 / 47 Rossmore

  23. Peg
    Without the ‘alp’ travellers you’d be even more irrelevant than you have become with your insistence on attempting to deride Labor at every opportunity.
    Your snipe is typical of your ignorance and your acknowledgement of your description is telling.
    Your referral earlier to a duopoly is equally telling. You are obsessively disengaged from reality.

  24. Lots of pain in Townsville (Herbert). Unemployment stuck at historically high levels. Youth crime and a severe drought. Labor kept its three Townsville seats at the last state election. Only just.

    Campbell Newman combined with the first Mayor of the newly Amalgamated City (Les Tyrell a Tory) to effectively close the City down. The Public Service was devastated and when Palmer closed the Nickel Refinery housing values collapsed.

    So it’s a Pox on both houses. This is not a bad result for Labor. Increased Primary. But bad for the LNP given what has happened in the City.

  25. Upnorth

    So it’s a Pox on both houses.

    We agree. Notwithstanding it is a seat poll.

    According to Goll you must also be obsessively disengaged from reality.

  26. Newspoll Federal Seat of Herbert Primary Votes:
    ALP 32 (+1.5 since election)
    LNP 32 (-3.5)
    ON 9 (-4.5)
    KAP 9 (+2.1)
    UAP 8 (+7.6)
    GRN 7 (+0.7)
    other must be 3

    Seat polls are notorious, but…
    PHON have lost 4.5 to be level with Katter, and Palmer, who arguably contributed to the problems in Townsville, is out-polling the Greens. It will be interesting to see if any trends develop.

  27. Upnorth

    So. Isn’t the Greens Party irrelevant, except of course when Labor wants to court its preferences, especially in a tight contest.

    Only 64% want to give the political duopoly their first preference.

    Hardly a ringing endorsement of either major party.

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