Departure lounge

The retirement of another senior Liberal in a loseable seat, and a poll suggesting Labor could pull off a boilover in Higgins.

The West Australian today reports that Human Services Minister Michael Keenan will be joining the exodus at the election, creating a vacancy in his northern suburbs Perth seat of Stirling. The seat was long highly marginal, but Keenan has held it on mostly comfortable margins since he gained the seat from Labor in 2004.

There is also a uComms/ReachTEL poll in The Australian from the scene of the week’s other big retirement announcements, the Melbourne seat of Higgins. Conducted on Thursday from a sample of 860 for interests who wish to bring about the return of Peter Costello, the poll finds Labor with a two-party lead of 52-48. This compares with a 10.7% margin for retiring Liberal member Kelly O’Dwyer in Liberals-versus-Labor terms, although it’s perfectly in line with how the electorate voted at the election. It was in fact the Greens who finished second in 2016, but the poll suggests that is unlikely to be repeated this time: after exclusion of the 8.4% undecided, the primary votes are Liberal 40.3%, Labor 27.1% and Greens 19.3%.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

1,544 comments on “Departure lounge”

  1. Pegasus @ #1196 Sunday, January 27th, 2019 – 1:47 pm

    The article re Singh was written by state political reporters Ellen Coulter and Rhiana Whitson. Are they Greens?

    Is Reynolds. who was quoted as saying the preselection process was undemocratic. a Greens?

    Shoot the messenger is such fun.

    Boo hoo, they made me post it! 😆

    Show me one system that doesn’t have it’s quirks and flaws.

    How do they elect the leader of the Greens?

  2. Greensborough Growler @ #1200 Sunday, January 27th, 2019 – 4:48 pm

    The post election aftermath for the Libs will be ugly. A lot of moderate Libs will be asking themselves “What would Menzies do?”

    Menzies went out and formed a new Party and went out and formed Government in 1949 after * years in the wilderness.

    The question is whether Laundy has the character or desire to go the journey.

    I don’t know the first thing about forming a political party, but women like Banks, Phelps and Steggall might be a good place to start.

  3. BiGD

    As a Greens member I am able to vote in every local government, state and federal preselection, my vote being of equal value to every other vote.

    How does that compare for Labor preselections?

  4. Barney in Go Dau @ #1200 Sunday, January 27th, 2019 – 5:53 pm

    Pegasus @ #1196 Sunday, January 27th, 2019 – 1:47 pm

    The article re Singh was written by state political reporters Ellen Coulter and Rhiana Whitson. Are they Greens?

    Is Reynolds. who was quoted as saying the preselection process was undemocratic. a Greens?

    Shoot the messenger is such fun.

    Boo hoo, they made me post it! 😆

    Show me one system that doesn’t have it’s quirks and flaws.

    How do they elect the leader of the Greens?

    it’s a secret bullshit.

  5. Here’s the update as promised. It’s a week off, but such was the enthusiasm/boredom we have some early entries.

    PB Newspoll-Poll 2019-02-03
    PB mean: ALP 54.1 to 45.9 LNP
    PB median: ALP 54.0 to 46.0 LNP
    No. Of PB Respondents: 19

    ALP / LNP
    54 / 46 Al Pal
    54 / 46 BK
    54 / 46 C@tmomma
    53 / 47 Confessions
    55 / 45 Dave from Wagga
    55 / 45 Dog’s Breakfast
    53.5 / 46.5 Frednk *permanent
    52 / 48 It’s Time
    54 / 46 jenauthor’s head
    55 / 45 jenauthor’s heart
    54 / 46 Late Riser
    53 / 47 Mavis Smith
    55 / 45 Player One
    55 / 45 poroti
    54 / 46 Rex Douglas
    54 / 46 steve davis
    54 / 46 The Silver Bodgie
    55 / 45 Upnorth

  6. The ALP stooges getting upset to be reminded that even if they are members, they are just stooges compared to the real players in the ALP machine. Rather than do something about it they attack Peg. Weak.

  7. BiGD

    As a Greens member I am able to vote in every local government, state and federal preselection, my vote being of equal value to every other vote.

    How does that compare for Labor preselections?

    Just the State and Federal electorate you are in, or every federal and state electorate?

    Genuinely interested. Would you argue it has served the greens well, or is it part of the greens problems and the ceiling that seems to exist with the green vote.

  8. An edited version of a speech given at Davos this week by Swedish school strike activist Greta Thunberg, aged 16.

    https://www.theguardian.com/environment/2019/jan/25/our-house-is-on-fire-greta-thunberg16-urges-leaders-to-act-on-climate

    Our house is on fire. I am here to say, our house is on fire.

    According to the IPCC (Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change), we are less than 12 years away from not being able to undo our mistakes. In that time, unprecedented changes in all aspects of society need to have taken place, including a reduction of our CO2 emissions by at least 50%.

    And please note that those numbers do not include the aspect of equity, which is absolutely necessary to make the Paris agreement work on a global scale. Nor does it include tipping points or feedback loops like the extremely powerful methane gas released from the thawing Arctic permafrost.

    At places like Davos, people like to tell success stories. But their financial success has come with an unthinkable price tag. And on climate change, we have to acknowledge we have failed. All political movements in their present form have done so, and the media has failed to create broad public awareness.
    :::
    We all have a choice. We can create transformational action that will safeguard the living conditions for future generations. Or we can continue with our business as usual and fail.

    That is up to you and me.

    Some say we should not engage in activism. Instead we should leave everything to our politicians and just vote for a change instead. But what do we do when there is no political will? What do we do when the politics needed are nowhere in sight?

    Here in Davos – just like everywhere else – everyone is talking about money. It seems money and growth are our only main concerns.
    :::
    I want you to act as you would in a crisis. I want you to act as if our house is on fire. Because it is.

  9. The ALP stooges getting upset to be reminded that even if they are members, they are just stooges compared to the real players in the ALP machine. Rather than do something about it they attack Peg.

    You do know how State conferences work in the ALP no? You do know that the ALP is the political arm of the union movement? You should google it.

  10. WeWantPaul
    says:
    Sunday, January 27, 2019 at 6:03 pm
    The ALP stooges getting upset to be reminded that even if they are members, they are just stooges compared to the real players in the ALP machine. Rather than do something about it they attack Peg.
    You do know how State conferences work in the ALP no? You do know that the ALP is the political arm of the union movement? You should google it.
    ___________________________________
    Yes and that it is why the ALP will never be a genuine social democratic party because it is just an arm of the union movement.

  11. P1: “ourselves transition from coal to gas while waiting for renewables to come on stream.” You make it sound as if we have no renewables yet, and we’re facing a long wait. In fact – as I’m sure you know – they’re coming on stream month by month and the process will continue for the indefinite future. See https://theconversation.com/at-its-current-rate-australia-is-on-track-for-50-renewable-electricity-in-2025-102903 Sure, some of the coal plants are limping, but most of them will last a while yet, and the focus of everyone with serious money to invest seems to be on building wind and solar rather than gas. So would you like to rephrase your “while waiting” remark? Is there really going to be a period where we seriously need gas? And who is going to invest in it?

  12. freiky
    ‏@AAAopinion
    4m4 minutes ago

    First #qanda panel of the year. Karen Phelps, Helen Haines, Zali Steggall, Rebecca Sharkie and for some balance, Pauline Hanson. Should be fun. @FightingTories #auspol

  13. Diogenes
    says:
    Sunday, January 27, 2019 at 6:04 pm
    How does Labor preselection work?
    ___________________________
    First you need an ethnic warlord…..

  14. This Democrat Governor looks like a nice balance to the likes of Warren, Harris and Ocasio-Cortez. She doesn’t do social media at all. In the elections all social media mentions of her were apparently opposed to her, creating the impression she was in trouble. But she beat a more progressive Democrat in the primary by 20 points, and thrashed her Republican opponent in the general election 52.8% to 37% (a reminder that most people aren’t engaged with politics through social media).

    She recalled an exchange with college students not long ago. One of them said: “I get who you are. You’re one of those spineless centrists.”

    “And I was like, ‘Excuse me?’,” she said. “It takes a lot of spine to be a centrist in America today. You get whacked from the left and whacked from the right. That’s my life. I get whacked.”

    Moderate Democrats have certainly had their day and their sway. In fact the passions of the left arise in part from how much compromise there has been — and here we are stuck with Donald Trump. The rage of less moderate Democrats like Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez is earned and righteous. And Raimondo said precisely that to me.

    But Ocasio-Cortez is by no means the whole of the Democratic Party. And is the leftward lurch that she personifies the best and safest bet for 2020? I worry, because there’s no political priority higher than limiting Trump to one term. Raimondo also worries — a lot.

    “So many Democrats just assume we’re going to win,” she said. “They underestimate how hard it’s going to be.” And it might be a serious tactical mistake, she added, to nominate any candidate who seems to be at war with capitalism itself or entertains the idea of a guaranteed minimum income.

    “We have become the party that is anti-business,” she told me. “We need to be the party of work.”

    She acknowledged that “the system we have today is totally broken.” She cited grotesque income inequality. She noted that too many Americans have no economic security and no prospects for achieving it.

    “But I fall in the camp of: Let’s fix it,” she said. “Let’s embrace business to come to the table. Someone needs to make the case that it’s in the best interest of businesses and wealthy people to be better corporate citizens. Pay for health care. Help people get their college degree. Pay for job training.”

    https://www.nytimes.com/2019/01/26/opinion/sunday/gina-raimondo-2020.html

  15. Diogenes says:
    Sunday, January 27, 2019 at 6:04 pm

    How does Labor preselection work?

    Been a member for a while so I have seen a couple. I can only talk about the house of reps.
    You get flyers in the mail from hopefuls; you go to meetings to see them talk and put their case; you cast your vote. It is one of the pluses of being a member you actually get a byte at the cherry before the general public. A lot of very good people put here hand up; and a lot of good people get to cast their vote.

    A Green member gets to vote for nothing; gets to post rubbish on poll bludger and that is about it; a Labor member gets to vote for someone with a chance of winning. They are involved in a process that matters.

  16. Pegasus @ #1204 Sunday, January 27th, 2019 – 5:56 pm

    BiGD

    As a Greens member I am able to vote in every local government, state and federal preselection, my vote being of equal value to every other vote.

    How does that compare for Labor preselections?

    And the consequence of all this voting is that you have a large influence on nothing at all, whereas if you had joined the ALP you would have a smaller influence on something both meaningful and effective.

    Yes, I see where you’re coming from … 🙁

  17. Recalling the recent preselection battle for McNamara i.e (Melbourne Ports).

    https://independentaustralia.net/politics/politics-display/branch-stacking-and-dirty-tricks-in-melbourne-ports,12097

    Nowadays, there is no discernible difference between the factions. They exist only as grubby job-creation schemes for those within the factions, who would, metaphorically speaking, kill their own mother to become an MP and, from there, a millionaire ,then later, if you are halfway smart, a multimillionaire.

  18. From Bevan Sheilds.. last September, he interviewed Peter MacDonald, who was an independent member of NSW parliament – from the seat of Manly, in the heart of Warringah

  19. Jack Aranda @ #1216 Sunday, January 27th, 2019 – 6:05 pm

    P1: “ourselves transition from coal to gas while waiting for renewables to come on stream.” You make it sound as if we have no renewables yet, and we’re facing a long wait. In fact – as I’m sure you know – they’re coming on stream month by month and the process will continue for the indefinite future. See https://theconversation.com/at-its-current-rate-australia-is-on-track-for-50-renewable-electricity-in-2025-102903 Sure, some of the coal plants are limping, but most of them will last a while yet, and the focus of everyone with serious money to invest seems to be on building wind and solar rather than gas. So would you like to rephrase your “while waiting” remark? Is there really going to be a period where we seriously need gas? And who is going to invest in it?

    And how much coal generation have we actually retired as yet because of renewables? Oh, that’s right – none at all. All the retirements are for reasons of age and infirmity.

    This is like waiting for your ageing relatives to die so you can inherit. As a wealth management strategy, it has significant downsides. As a policy to prevent global warming, it is just another name for suicide 🙁

  20. frednk
    says:
    Sunday, January 27, 2019 at 6:14 pm
    Diogenes says:
    Sunday, January 27, 2019 at 6:04 pm
    How does Labor preselection work?

    Been a member for a while so I have seen a couple. I can only talk about the house of reps.
    You get flyers in the mail from hopefuls; you go to meetings to see them talk and put their case; you cast your vote. It is one of the pluses of being a member you actually get a byte at the cherry before the general public. A lot of very good people put here hand up; and a lot of good people get to cast their vote.
    _______________________________
    this is hilarious from fred. Then after all the ALP members met the hopefuls they met under the magic mushroom at the bottom of the garden and sang merry songs.

    Not a factional presence, a branch stack, a super delegate or an head office imposed candidate in sight!

  21. sprocket_
    says:
    Sunday, January 27, 2019 at 6:16 pm
    I see nth is back, hitting bum notes again
    ______________________________
    Maybe you should petition journalists to stop reporting on all the goings on during ALP pre-selections. Or is it just that you don’t want it mentioned here? Or anywhere?

  22. frednk

    Spoken like a true Labor member who is anti-democracy.

    A single party only! Or two!

    Upwards of 30% of voters do not give either major party their primary vote.

    How fortunate there is bipartisan agreement to ensure business as usual, aka the status quo, to entrench the parties’power and self-interest.

    HoR proportional representation now to reflect the will of the people.

  23. I hope this isn’t the kiss of death!

    Margo KingstonVerified account@margokingston1
    3h3 hours ago
    So @RobOakeshott1 dropped in to my home on the Gold Coast and I’ve agreed to travel south with my minder – my Mum @alcorn_jann – to document his campaign to win Cowper from the Nats. #CowperVotes

    On the ground this time for #ausvotes. EXCITED!

    :large

  24. I think the politician that said “those that show up run the place”; was right. Labor encourages membership of policy committees. Zoomster has posted details of the work she has done; she showed up she influenced the outcome.

    The Liberal’s real problem is the only people who show up also go to church on Sunday and speak in tongues.

  25. As a Greens member I can cast a vote for senators in my state, in every election. My vote is of equal value to every other vote cast.

    What’s Labor’s process.

    In Singh’s preselection the rank and file votes were not of equal value.

    Does this occur in every Labor preselection?

  26. sprocket_ @ #1225 Sunday, January 27th, 2019 – 6:15 pm

    From Bevan Sheilds.
    But any challenger would need to brace for ferocious fight from Abbott, who has a proven track record of being a tough and savvy political opponent.

    Whatever talent you start with, you don’t win olympic medals without knowing how to win – commitment, perseverance and endurance.

    She’s likely to bring out the worst of Abbott the more the campaign progresses. He hasn’t a gracious bone in his body. This time, he won’t be able to get his female opponent up against the wall and punch it either side of her head.

    I relish the day he’s looking for a job as a truck driver, fireman, or onion taster.


  27. Pegasus says:
    Sunday, January 27, 2019 at 6:21 pm

    frednk

    Spoken like a true Labor member who is anti-democracy.


    To spend you time doing stuff with no consequences really is your choice. I’m sure your bright enough to work out how the system works.

  28. nth, the ALP factions are able to bring together multiple streams of Australian society, workers and progressive thought into coherent groupings. Yes, there are regular conflicts within factions and amongst personalities, however this is expected with a collection of passionate advocates.

    Look at any successful democratic party globally and you will find the same.

  29. Mundine, like his fellow Sky after Dark identity Peta Credlin (whose News Corp PR machine breathlessly keeps us updated on the question on the lips of no one but those who watch Sky News: will she or won’t she enter federal politics?), is recognisable to close followers of politics but barely known outside. (His more famous nephew, Anthony “Chock” Mundine, and Anthony’s father Tony might generate name recognition.)

    But because of that “beltway” presence (he is a former Labor president, after all) he’s been all over the news this week, including in an interview with ABC’s 7.30 anchor Leigh Sales. Most major-party candidates could only dream of such exposure.

    So he’s getting a profile boost, but that can go either way for someone who was in yet another party, the Liberal Democrats, only last year and has never lived in the area.

    Whether Mundine stands a better chance of winning than Schultz or Sudmalis might be beside the point. Perhaps he’s not there to get elected but rather to flesh out the wider Liberal image for the campaign: a successful, conservative Indigenous businessperson with a Labor background who is happy to explain what’s wrong with the federal opposition and why Bill Shorten shouldn’t be allowed anywhere near the Lodge.

    https://insidestory.org.au/for-whom-a-bellwether-tolls/

  30. Look at any successful democratic party

    In Australia, the system advantages the two major parties.

    Easy to be ‘successful’ under those conditions.

  31. Kingston normally is. We had wall to wall photos of her embracing indie candidates down here during the State election. I don’t think any of them got up.

  32. Confessions @ #1232 Sunday, January 27th, 2019 – 6:22 pm

    I hope this isn’t the kiss of death!
    Margo KingstonVerified account@margokingston1
    3h3 hours ago
    So @RobOakeshott1 dropped in to my home on the Gold Coast and I’ve agreed to travel south with my minder – my Mum @alcorn_jann – to document his campaign to win Cowper from the Nats. #CowperVotes

    Not sure what you mean Confessions. As on the ground reporting goes, she’s good and keeps her distance. I can’t see that she would have any bearing on the campaign, but interested in any thoughts.

  33. Nath @6:01
    “It was the Macedonians that stacked Maribyrnong for Shorten.”

    I have made a personal vow not to engage with Nath, but every now and then a
    flash of comprehension comes to me.
    Very early in Nath’s appearance early last year, I asked him why he had such a personal animus against Mr. Shorten. His reply was such a farrago of evasions that I shrugged my shoulders , and made the vow I mentioned.
    But now my guess is the nath, or someone near and dear to him was outmanoeuvred in the squalid turmoil of a preselection battle!
    If I’m wrong, I’ll just shrug my shoulders, and move on , lamenting a spurious flash of inspiration

Leave a Reply

Your email address will not be published. Required fields are marked *