Midweek mélange

New fronts open in the Liberal Party’s internal warfare as it scrambles to prepare for an election looking increasingly to be in May.

As we wait for the 2019 polling machine to get cranking, a review of recent happenings:

• Indigenous leader Warren Mundine is to be installed as the new Liberal candidate for the marginal seat of Gilmore in southern New South Wales, supplanting the existing candidate, Grant Schultz, by decree of the party’s state executive acting at the behest of the Prime Minister. Schultz promptly quit the Liberal Party when the news broke yesterday and announced he would run as an independent. Schultz’s dumping was also blasted by Shelley Hancock, member for the corresponding state seat of South Coast, who spoke of “one of the darkest days of the Liberal Party”. A local real estate agent and son of the late Alby Schultz, former member for Hume, Schultz was preparing a challenge to the preselection of incumbent Ann Sudmalis last year, and was the only remaining nominee after she announced her retirement in September. Mundine was national president of the ALP in 2006 and 2007, but quit the party in 2012 and moved ever further into the conservative orbit thereafter. It is expected the seat will be contested for the Nationals by Katrina Hodgkinson, former state member for Burrinjuck and Cootamundra.

• Following Kelly O’Dwyer’s retirement announcement on the weekend, it appears accepted within the Liberal Party that it needs to pick a woman to succeed her. Katie Allen, a paediatrician and medical researcher who ran unsuccessfully in Prahran at the November state election, has confirmed she will nominate. Michael Koziol of The Age reports other names being discussed include Caroline Elliott, state party vice-president and daughter of businessman John Elliott, and Margaret Fitzherbert, who lost her upper house seat for Southern Metropolitan region at the state election. Senator Jane Hume has reportedly encouraged to put her name forward, but announced yesterday she would not do so.

• Anne Webster, founder of young mother support organisation Zoe Support, was chosen as the Nationals candidate for Mallee at a local preselection vote on Saturday. Webster will succeed one-term member Andrew Broad, who announced his impending retirement last month after he became embroiled in the “sugar baby” affair. Rachel Baxendale of The Australian reports Webster won in the second round of voting over Birchip accountant and farmer Bernadette Hogan and Mildura police domestic violence taskforce head Paul Matheson, with three other candidates excluded in the first round.

• Nationals Senator Bridget McKenzie has announced she will not contest the lower house seat of Indi, contrary to expectations she would do so if independent incumbent Cathy McGowan announced her retirement, which she did last weekend.

• Two notable independents have emerged to challenge Tony Abbott in Warringah: Alice Thompson, a KPMG manager who worked in the Prime Minister’s Office under Malcolm Turnbull, and Susan Moylan-Coombs, founder and director of indigenous advocacy organisation the Gaimaragal Group.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

1,977 comments on “Midweek mélange”

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  1. To sum up the year (so far). Morrison ignited a culture war where he equated those who object to Australia Day being celebrated on Jan 26 to treason, then ripped apart his party by installing in a marginal seat a candidate who opposes Australia Day being on Jan 26th. Genius.— Stephen Spencer (@sspencer_63) January 23, 2019

  3. Warren Mundine refining his message..

    .@nyunggai: Yes, I’d like to see the date of Australia Day changed … But I’ve got 100 different things in front of that before I even get to that stage.

    MORE: bit.ly/2S73u6O #newsday

  4. guytaur: “mb

    You have the drug wowsers talking points down real well. None of what you just posted rebuts what Dr Alex Wodak has said.

    But I will give you a clue. Harm Minimisation. Not harm elimination

    Edit here is a link so you have no doubt as to what Dr Wodak has said.”

    Thanks for posting the link. I’ve read the article. In my opinion it’s an exercise in sophistry.

    “Were these deaths and illnesses really from drugs? Or were they the result of an obstinate refusal by governments to allow pill testing in Australia?”

    Nope, they were from drugs.

    “Would older generations tolerate a supply of drinks where the alcohol content could be anywhere between that of beer and whiskey? Or where their alcoholic drinks could be contaminated with toxic ingredients which had not been tested for lest increased drinking be inadvertently encouraged?”

    Nope, we don’t tolerate these things, which is why supply such drinks is totally illegal and people caught doing it will be prosecuted.

    “In the current debate, ministers argue that the ‘best’ we should aim for is that young people attending music dance events would lose their desire to take drugs at these events that law enforcement would make these drugs virtually unavailable.”

    I don’t recall hearing any politician arguing in this way. The politicians I have heard have confessed that the use of these drugs by people is widespread and difficult to prevent, but that they aren’t convinced that pill-testing is going to make things better rather than worse.

    “Pill testing has been available now for decades in some European countries. The evidence that it is helpful is probabilistic rather than definitive. There is no good evidence that pill testing has been harmful.”

    Gee, that’s a convincing argument. Let’s go for it.

    “In recent decades, debates about new harm reduction interventions have followed a consistent pattern. A new intervention becomes available to reduce a significant threat. Instant proof of effectiveness and lack of adverse effects is demanded, but of course cannot be produced.”

    In other words, exactly what is demanded of new medical treatments, drugs, etc. I have heard exactly the same sort of complaints from the so-called “complementary medicine” sector.

    “In some cases, such as needle syringe programs, the plausibility of the argument was sufficient to change policy.”

    Spot on. The problem with pill testing is that the arguments for it are currently not particularly plausible.

    “Governments have a responsibility to keep the community safe.”

    Yes, indeed. Pill testing has not yet been proven to improve safety. Get some conclusive proof and then I for one will be all for it.

    Taken as a whole, I think Dr Wodak’s argument can be summed up as

    1. Young people are dying from the adverse effects of drugs such as MDMA.
    2. Stopping these deaths is a high priority.
    3. Pill testing is something that might conceivably help.
    4. Therefore we are duty bound to implement it.

    It’s not a good enough argument for me. Which is why I feel very wary about jumping on the bandwagon.

  6. Zoidlord @ #348 Wednesday, January 23rd, 2019 – 10:58 am

    Chris Uhlmann
    ‏Verified account @CUhlmann
    2h2 hours ago

    For those convinced there will be a federal election in March. Nine News has confirmed that the NSW division of the Liberal Party has a hold over function rooms at the Sydney Sofitel for May 18. There are holds elsewhere for May 11. #auspol

    So the NSW Liberals don’t know when the election will be. 😆

  8. Guardian Australia
    ‏Verified account @GuardianAus
    20s20 seconds ago

    Lachlan Murdoch denies father Rupert ever said Malcolm Turnbull ‘has got to go’

  9. unfunk™. Since 1980
    ‏ @unfnknblvbl
    2h2 hours ago

    The LNP’s plan to win the election really must be “anger as much of our base as possible so they’ll vote for us”
    https://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/2019/jan/23/local-backlash-after-liberal-party-installs-warren-mundine-as-gilmore-candidate

    Maranoa Girl
    ‏ @GDixon1977
    6h6 hours ago

    You’re being robbed to fund the Coalition’s election advertising | The New Daily

    https://thenewdaily.com.au/news/national/2019/01/22/coalition-election-advertising-pascoe/

  10. I read this morning that one of the young men affected by pills had taken more than 5 at once, with alcohol. What’s the use of proving purity when fools do things like that?

  11. meher baba @ #352 Wednesday, January 23rd, 2019 – 11:01 am

    …

    Taken as a whole, I think Dr Wodak’s argument can be summed up as

    1. Young people are dying from the adverse effects of drugs such as MDMA.
    2. Stopping these deaths is a high priority.
    3. Pill testing is something that might conceivably help.
    4. Therefore we are duty bound to implement it.

    It’s not a good enough argument for me. Which is why I feel very wary about jumping on the bandwagon.

    So what are your objections to trialling pill testing?

  12. Meher Baba
    Here is what the Noffs Foundation thinks. What would they know -eh?

    There is no question that pill testing works. A significant body of evidence from Europe demonstrates pill testing is an effective harm reduction strategy, and many European music events see long queues at drug checking stations [16]. As many as half of European festivalgoers who get their drugs checked say they would dispose of a substance if it wasn’t what they thought it was.
    According to studies in Austria, a third of people decide not to take a substance after having it checked [17]. This further proves that pill testing does not result in increased drug use.
    One Swiss study found that a pill-testing service is often the first contact with social support systems for many users, and that by offering such a service, it is easier to motivate individuals to participate in a consultation about informed drug use [18]. The study also found that, contrary to the usual claims from critics, pill-testing services did not result in an increase in the frequency of most party drugs, and that the information offered by these services even resulted in restricted consumption amongst ecstasy users.
    In Australia, pill testing has the support of health experts, academics, sections of law enforcement, and various politicians [19,20,21]. Far from promoting drug use, a pill testing program here would not instruct a potential drug user that their substance is “safe” or “unsafe”, rather, it would give the individual more information about the nature of the substance, so that they may then make an informed decision about whether or not to consume it.
    As for young people, research shows they care strongly about their welfare and safety. A 2013 survey of 2,300 young Australians by the Australian National Council on Drugs found more than 82% support the introduction of pill testing as a harm reduction initiative [22]. This is evidence that young people are aware of the dangers presented by illicit drug consumption and want to make more informed choices about the drugs they take.

    https://noffs.org.au/blog/there-is-no-debate-on-pill-testing/

  21. lizzie

    The argument is people only do the foolish things like take nine pills at once to avoid going to jail as sniffer dogs police festivals. So its very good evidence the tough on the user approach has directly led to a death if that is true.

    Given the stupidity of some people when in a panic I can believe its true.

    cat

    Yes. Any warning that helps to help a drug user avoid death is a good one. Plus as Europe has proven the drugs get less additives and less dangerous as a result when pill testing happens.
    This because the criminals will lose a market if they don’t deliver the goods.

    Of course the message is still you are best off not taking drugs. Just if you are going to put your life at risk here is some advice to reduce the risk.

  22. Further to my last email, I note that – as far as I know – drugs such as MDMA are not addictive and therefore the people using them are voluntarily taking a significant risk with the goal of having “fun”.

    They are therefore not in a comparable situation to people addicted to heroin or alcohol – or even marijuana – who find it difficult to abstain, and therefore need strong support to prevent their addictions causing them other problems.

    Choosing to use MDMA is, I assume, a bit like choosing to have unprotected sex with a stranger, or to engage in BASE jumping, or drink driving, or a range of other dangerous activities that some people choose to undertake and which can have very serious consequences for other innocent people (including, if they die, their own family and friends).

    In my view, the rest of us are totally justified to demand from these individuals that they cease to engage in these unsafe activities. Introducing pill testing would clearly come across as contradicting the message that we don’t want people to use these drugs. It might also induce a false sense of security in the minds of some users. These effects would potentially increase the number of people using these drugs and thereby potentially increase the numbers dying from adverse effects.

    Perhaps it would also prevent some deaths, but nobody – certainly not Dr Wodak – is at all sure about which way the ledger would balance out.

    Hence I think a cautious approach is the right one to take. The politicians who are using words like “preventable” to describe the deaths that have taken place recently should desist from doing this.

  23. Scotty is in bridge building and party healing mode in Gilmore…..

    Morrison says “there were those that sought to undermine Ann and made her life very difficult” when asked what’s wrong with Grant Schultz. “I’m not going to reward [that] behaviour … his decision yesterday showed the NSW Lib exec got it dead right #auspol

  24. White House patronizes ‘freshman’ AOC to Fox News — and tells her to leave climate change up to God

    Rep. Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez (D-NY) has been an avid supporter of the “Green New Deal,” a plan that would take dramatic steps to curb the United States’ contribution to global climate change. But in a Fox News interview with Sean Hannity, press secretary Sarah Huckabee Sanders turned to condescension.

    Hannity and Sanders both yucked it up about members of the Millennial Generation, who Hannity said are worried the world is going to end in 12 years if something isn’t done about climate change.

    “I don’t think that we are going to listen to her on much of anything, particularly anything that we will leave into the hands of a much, much higher authority,” Sanders said, presumably referring to God. “And certainly not listen to the freshman congresswoman on when the world may end.”

    https://www.rawstory.com/2019/01/white-house-patronizes-freshman-aoc-to-fox-news-and-tells-her-to-leave-climate-change-up-to-god/

  26. By all that’s logical, this hopeless government should be swept from office in a huge defeat.

    That won’t happen, though. Labor never wins big (well, there was an exception of two in WW2) and Morrison still has a giveaway budget to bribe the greedy.

    As well, a scare campaign on imputation credits has the potential to do a lot of damage.

    It may well be a cliff hanger.

  27. Question: “As many as half of European festivalgoers who get their drugs checked say they would dispose of a substance if it wasn’t what they thought it was.”

    And more than 50% would go ahead and use it anyway? I find that a bit disturbing.

  28. I’m all for Jan 26 being Australia Day. My wife is to receive a local community gong for her work with a group of intellectually disabled people amongst other fine work she does for the community. Her work is entirely voluntary and it’s terrific that she is being recognised for the time and effort she contributes.
    The family will be there and we will celebrate there and later with many other fellow Australians enjoying the day and cherishing what it is to be an Australian.

  29. Warren Mundine hitting all the right notes….

    Why is Warren Mundine a Liberal now? “I’ve got a son, I’ve got a daughter, I’ve got a son-in-law who are earning under $80,000 a year. They use negative
    gearing as their nest egg when they retire. That is under threat now.” #auspol

  30. meher baba @ #370 Wednesday, January 23rd, 2019 – 11:20 am

    Further to my last email, I note that – as far as I know – drugs such as MDMA are not addictive and therefore the people using them are voluntarily taking a significant risk with the goal of having “fun”.

    They are therefore not in a comparable situation to people addicted to heroin or alcohol – or even marijuana – who find it difficult to abstain, and therefore need strong support to prevent their addictions causing them other problems.

    Choosing to use MDMA is, I assume, a bit like choosing to have unprotected sex with a stranger, or to engage in BASE jumping, or drink driving, or a range of other dangerous activities that some people choose to undertake and which can have very serious consequences for other innocent people (including, if they die, their own family and friends).

    In my view, the rest of us are totally justified to demand from these individuals that they cease to engage in these unsafe activities. Introducing pill testing would clearly come across as contradicting the message that we don’t want people to use these drugs. It might also induce a false sense of security in the minds of some users. These effects would potentially increase the number of people using these drugs and thereby potentially increase the numbers dying from adverse effects.

    Perhaps it would also prevent some deaths, but nobody – certainly not Dr Wodak – is at all sure about which way the ledger would balance out.

    Hence I think a cautious approach is the right one to take. The politicians who are using words like “preventable” to describe the deaths that have taken place recently should desist from doing this.

    Shorter MB

    “All in all, too bad, so sad!!!”

  33. “I read this morning that one of the young men affected by pills had taken more than 5 at once, with alcohol. What’s the use of proving purity when fools do things like that?”

    So what? Seat belts don’t save all road fatalities either, but they save a lot, so we make people wear them. Some of the idiots saved by seat belts were also drunk. But they are still alive. If it reduces avoidable deaths, then it should be public policy. So I support pill testing.

  35. Sohar, Zoidlord

    Thanks, I was going to mention those New Daily articles too; they are sharply to the point. I have mentioned the lies behind the ScumMo “Infrastructure Ads” here before and it is good to see somebody in media finally point it out.

    This particular trick may be a lie too far for ScumMo. Everyone in the industry knows infrastructure project work is declining in SA, and ScumMo’s ad only rubs people’s noses in it.

  36. Tobacco and alcohol are infinitely more dangerous than party drugs- for every 1 person who dies from MDMA, probably 100,000 die from these….and then there is the diabetes, gangrene, shortened lives, accidents, king hits/violence and all the rest associated with them.

    Just some perspective on this very little harm reduction (not elimination) drug matter called pill testing, being whipped up in the latest culture war.

  37. I don’t have much sympathy for people who choose to ingest dangerous substances despite legal, medical and social advice not to do it.

    People need to be responsible for their action. If people choose to play pill bingo, they and their families have to deal with the consequences.

  39. sprocket_ @ #379 Wednesday, January 23rd, 2019 – 3:23 pm

    Warren Mundine hitting all the right notes….

    Why is Warren Mundine a Liberal now? “I’ve got a son, I’ve got a daughter, I’ve got a son-in-law who are earning under $80,000 a year. They use negative
    gearing as their nest egg when they retire. That is under threat now.” #auspol

    So which bank gave them a loan to buy an investment property with an income of less than $80000/year?

    Are they renting as well?

    Are they living at home with Step Mum and Dad?

    Did they go to the Bank of Mum and Dad to buy the investment property?

    Or, did Warren Mundine mean that they are on a Taxable Income of less than $80000/year?

  40. GG

    Do you use the same arguments about Injecting Rooms?

    If you do than I pity you for your lack of empathy to the decisions of others and you should have a look at the statics of who does use drugs including pills.

    Dennis Atkins tweeted it was about half the press gallery. Maybe that explains a few things 😆

  41. Dr Stuart Edser
    @StuartEdser
    23h23 hours ago

    Matthew Flinders’ cat Trim circumnavigated Australia before Cook ever did. … Perhaps we could build a large sand tray in honour of this founding feat (paw). #auspol

  42. With the summer phoney war/governing over and the de facto campaigning towards a March election done, policy discussion has almost ground to a halt in government. The only question is how big a bribe will they offer taxpayers? Nevertheless there are still some issues I’d like to see a new competent (i.e. Labor) government tackle.

    One of them is transport GHG emissions. Under the current regime the situation has actually gotten worse, with more people buying bigger SUVs and 4WDs, mostly with diesel engines. Diesel engined cars have really become a problem in cities. In Germany they are responsible for over 70% of all NOx emissions, which are both harmful to health and a potent GHG. Although only VW had a cheat device, it looks like virtually all new diesel cars do not meet emission standards in real world driving. There is an urgent need for a new government to institute a regime of real world vehicle tests. This will soon highlight the offending vehicles. Policy support should go towards electric and petrol hybrid cars – diesels have proven a disaster. A lot of manufacturers have shamelessly lied on this one. For the nerds, this presentation explains the problem.
    https://www.changing-transport.org/wp-content/uploads/TCC-Week_German-Environment-Agency_What-has-changed-after-Dieselgate.pdf

  43. I’ve got a son, I’ve got a daughter, I’ve got a son-in-law who are earning under $80,000 a year. They use negative
    gearing as their nest egg when they retire. That is under threat now.” #auspol

    Existing arrangements wont be changed under Labors policy.Ignoramous.

  45. Scott Morrison: “If you’re having a go, you’ll get a go here on the south coast.”

    Except if you’re Grant Schultz apparently

  46. Just to provide a slightly different perspective on the MDMA issue, I found this case interesting.

    https://www.news.com.au/national/nsw-act/courts-law/teen-faces-court-for-smuggling-390-mdma-caps-into-music-festival/news-story/1ccd4b8cd307f0e43a7ed15c44eb1f8c

    This young lady internally smuggled 394 capsules of MDMA into a music festival.

    The magistrate rejected her claim that she was trying to help her financially embattled family and described what she did as “a criminal offence and a deliberate act.”

    As a result, she was sentenced to 80 hours of community service: which looks to my legally untrained eye to have been a very mild punishment indeed for an act that could quite easily have resulted in one or more deaths.

    So perhaps we as a society don’t really want to stop people from using MDMA after all.

  47. Michelle Rowland
    @MRowlandMP
    6h6 hours ago

    As with the grant of $30m of taxpayer funds to Fox Sports, the grant of $17m to commercial TV for the Pacific was announced by the Liberals prior to terms & conditions being arranged, and relies on a process made up by industry after the fact. #auspol

  50. Fun Fact.

    If it wasn’t for Tampa and then 9-11 Warren Mundine would likely have been elected to the Senate at the 2001 election, taking his seat from 1 July 2002.

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