Midweek mélange

New fronts open in the Liberal Party’s internal warfare as it scrambles to prepare for an election looking increasingly to be in May.

As we wait for the 2019 polling machine to get cranking, a review of recent happenings:

• Indigenous leader Warren Mundine is to be installed as the new Liberal candidate for the marginal seat of Gilmore in southern New South Wales, supplanting the existing candidate, Grant Schultz, by decree of the party’s state executive acting at the behest of the Prime Minister. Schultz promptly quit the Liberal Party when the news broke yesterday and announced he would run as an independent. Schultz’s dumping was also blasted by Shelley Hancock, member for the corresponding state seat of South Coast, who spoke of “one of the darkest days of the Liberal Party”. A local real estate agent and son of the late Alby Schultz, former member for Hume, Schultz was preparing a challenge to the preselection of incumbent Ann Sudmalis last year, and was the only remaining nominee after she announced her retirement in September. Mundine was national president of the ALP in 2006 and 2007, but quit the party in 2012 and moved ever further into the conservative orbit thereafter. It is expected the seat will be contested for the Nationals by Katrina Hodgkinson, former state member for Burrinjuck and Cootamundra.

• Following Kelly O’Dwyer’s retirement announcement on the weekend, it appears accepted within the Liberal Party that it needs to pick a woman to succeed her. Katie Allen, a paediatrician and medical researcher who ran unsuccessfully in Prahran at the November state election, has confirmed she will nominate. Michael Koziol of The Age reports other names being discussed include Caroline Elliott, state party vice-president and daughter of businessman John Elliott, and Margaret Fitzherbert, who lost her upper house seat for Southern Metropolitan region at the state election. Senator Jane Hume has reportedly encouraged to put her name forward, but announced yesterday she would not do so.

• Anne Webster, founder of young mother support organisation Zoe Support, was chosen as the Nationals candidate for Mallee at a local preselection vote on Saturday. Webster will succeed one-term member Andrew Broad, who announced his impending retirement last month after he became embroiled in the “sugar baby” affair. Rachel Baxendale of The Australian reports Webster won in the second round of voting over Birchip accountant and farmer Bernadette Hogan and Mildura police domestic violence taskforce head Paul Matheson, with three other candidates excluded in the first round.

• Nationals Senator Bridget McKenzie has announced she will not contest the lower house seat of Indi, contrary to expectations she would do so if independent incumbent Cathy McGowan announced her retirement, which she did last weekend.

• Two notable independents have emerged to challenge Tony Abbott in Warringah: Alice Thompson, a KPMG manager who worked in the Prime Minister’s Office under Malcolm Turnbull, and Susan Moylan-Coombs, founder and director of indigenous advocacy organisation the Gaimaragal Group.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

1,977 comments on “Midweek mélange”

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  2. Question for consideration: You are to be given an Australia Day Award by your local council. Do you say, “I’m sorry, I believe that January 26th is a day that is disrespectful to our First Peoples and I can’t be a part of a ceremony that is held on a day that represents the European Invasion of their country.” Or, do you say, “Great, do I get to wear Boardies and Thongs?”

  4. The safe injecting room in Melbourne is endorsed by the Victorian Police.

    Pill testing is not.

    If the NSW Police Commissioner is labelling pill testing as legalising drugs by stealth then I for one, will take notice.

    Of course they are not thee only opinion that matters. But, there have been posters on this site involved in the care of drug addled patients and they seem to be saying that pill testing is a legal and ethical quandary for them

    I take note of those opinions also.

    I’m also not particularly in favour of normalising illicit drug taking behaviour and culture.

    Then you have the politicians who are responsible for responding to total community feelings about these sort of matters in a way that minimises risk and ensures everyone is protected.

    As I said before, I haven’t got much sympathy for those who want to play roulette with their lives.

    But, I believe that Doyle’s policy to hold a summit where all these matters can be addressed and discussed and maybe legislated is a worthwhile proposition.

  5. With Lachlan Murdoch coming out to strenuously deny comments his father made about Turnbull, one can only assume the Murdoch camp is keen to put some distance between themselves and Scott Morrison.

  6. guytaur @ #404 Wednesday, January 23rd, 2019 – 4:03 pm

    A Labor candidate writes

    If any government is serious about fighting inequality instead of boosting and buttressing it, it must start by listening to the people who bear the brunt of inequality, writes Dr John Falzon in this reflection on the rise of neoliberalism.

    https://probonoaustralia.com.au/news/2019/01/the-economic-horror/

    What does he think of Bowens austerity approach re newstart/new immigrant welfare …?

    … The neoliberal attacks on the public sphere, ranging from Centrelink to public schools to the public broadcaster, are proof that excluded still “really take up too much space” and that what remains of the commons must be carved up and sold off or, better still, given away to the deserving rich to further enrich themselves. The champions of inequality hate and loathe the public sphere. It reeks, to them, of the promise of democracy.

  8. meher baba
    says:
    Wednesday, January 23, 2019 at 3:22 pm
    Question: “As many as half of European festivalgoers who get their drugs checked say they would dispose of a substance if it wasn’t what they thought it was.”
    And more than 50% would go ahead and use it anyway? I find that a bit disturbing.

    Yes, but who hasn’t done stupid things? Seems like an effective way to halve the problem to me. Anyway, the point of the post was what do the experts say?

  9. GG

    Police and prison guards cannot stop drugs getting into prisons. Stopping kids taking drugs at festivals is a fantasy.

    40 years of harm. Repeating the failed prohibition attempts with alcohol.

    As I said I think a lot of people see illegal and think that makes the drug worse than some legal ones.
    We know pill testing reduces the risk. We have actual examples of it working and police forces working with it too.

    Listen to the medical profession not the vested interests of the Law Enforcement agencies that would lose resources and money and have a vested interest in continuing the punish the user approach

  11. steve davis: “Existing arrangements wont be changed under Labors policy”

    Undoubtedly true. Indeed, barring a significant change in the composition of the Senate, I doubt that any taxation arrangements for housing are going to be significantly changed by a Labor Government: at least, not without significant concessions.

    However, looking at Labor’s policy as it stands, I think it is unarguable that Labor’s proposed changes are likely to have an adverse effect on most current investors in rental housing.

    Yes, existing investors will retain their ability to negatively gear and their existing CGT concessions. But it must be remembered that negative gearing does not provide investors with any sort of a return: by definition, you need to make a loss in order to claim it. What negative gearing does is effectively to reduce the costs of investing in rental housing over a prolonged period. But significant returns on that investment are only realised when the investor sells the property at a significantly increased capital value.

    In order to achieve that capital gain, you are eventually going to need to find someone to whom you can sell your property. Labor’s proposals is going to reduce the market of potential purchasers for anyone selling an existing rental property: ie, it will rule out the very large proportion of potential landlords who would be looking to negatively gear the property.

    Many properties in the current housing market – eg apartments and holiday homes – are more suited than others for being rented out. It’s hard to see that, all else being equal, Labor’s proposed policy would not make these types of properties less attractive on the broader housing market, and thereby reduce the return current investors could expect from those properties.

    Of course, all else might not be equal: eg, a significant boost to the overall demand for housing would easily counteract the effect of any taxation changes. But we seem to be entering into a period of reduced demand for housing, which is not great timing for Labor’s policy.

    The other issue is the potential impact on the availability of rental housing. The unavailability of negative gearing will greatly reduce the appeal of geared rental investment, as the current net losses will increase. The average rent to capital ratio for housing is around 4 per cent of the purchase price, from which must be deducted stamp duty, land tax, council rates, maintenance, etc. A geared investor in rental property will need to find a lot more money out of his or her own pocket to cover these things. Or else rents must rise.

    There will still be, as there are now, a significant number of equity investors in rental housing. But a rational equity investor is more likely than a geared investor to target the regions in which housing is most likely to make a significant capital gain in a relatively short period of time.

    So, all things being equal, you would expect that the removal of negative gearing would, over time, produce growing shortages of rental housing in regions where the rate of increase in housing prices is slower: ie, some regional areas and/or areas of lower household income.

    To my mind the solution to this problem – a far more effective solution than negative gearing – would be a return to the days of substantial government investment in the construction and provision of social housing. However, this does not appear to be a part of Labor’s current policy thinking.

  12. https://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/2019/jan/23/federal-anti-corruption-body-must-have-power-to-make-arrests-and-conduct-searches-judges-say

    A group of high-profile judges have called for a proposed federal anti-corruption body to be given the powers of a royal commission, warning “an ineffective commission is worse than no commission at all”.
    :::
    “The commission we envisage would fill a serious gap in Australia’s capacity to minimise corruption,” the judges said in a submission to an inquiry considering a model proposed by the crossbench. “It would investigate with rigour and fairness, and expose without fear or favour, behaviour that deliberately impairs, or could impair, the honesty, impartiality or efficacy of official conduct wherever it occurs in the federal sphere. The case for such a commission is compelling, and much of our advocacy has been focused accordingly.”

    The group of six judges, who form the Australia Institute’s integrity committee, include New South Wales supreme court judge Anthony Whealy, the former NSW Independent Commission Against Crruption commissioner David Ipp, a former president of the Queensland court of appeal, Margaret McMurdo, and retired senior judges Stephen Charles, David Harper and Paul Stein.

    Crossbenchers’ Bill: https://www.aph.gov.au/Parliamentary_Business/Committees/Senate/Legal_and_Constitutional_Affairs/NationalIntegrityComm

    On 29 November 2018 the Senate referred the provisions of the National Integrity Commission Bill 2018 to the Legal and Constitutional Affairs Legislation Committee for inquiry and report by 5 April 2019.

    On 6 December 2018 the Senate referred the National Integrity Commission Bill 2018 (No. 2) and the provisions of the National Integrity (Parliamentary Standards) Bill 2018 to the Legal and Constitutional Affairs Legislation Committee for inquiry and report by 5 April 2019.

    The committee is inquiring into these three bills concurrently. The deadline for submissions to the inquiry is 22 January 2019.

    I speculate this thinking by the experts – “an ineffective commission is worse than no commission at all” – wont go down too well here.

    What’s the detail of Labor’s policy on a federal ICAC?

  13. GG, that would be terrible if they didn’t give your wife the honours she richly deserves because they change the date of Australia Day.

  15. From the World Economic Forum.

    I suggest we follow what works with housing

    In the last year in the UK, the number of people sleeping rough rose by 7%. In Germany, the last two years saw a 35% increase in the number of homeless while in France, there has been an increase of 50% in the last 11 years.

    These are Europe’s three biggest economies, and yet they haven’t solved their housing problem. Across Europe, the picture is much the same.

    Except in Finland.

    There, the number of homeless is steadily decreasing. So what have they been doing differently?

    https://www.weforum.org/agenda/2018/02/how-finland-solved-homelessness/

  18. P1

    Yes.

    It certainly does back the old original idea of public housing not the ra ra social housing that is talked about today. The use of a study of private to public mix has been used to push the neo liberal exclusion as we have seen with NSW selling off public housing stock.

    Then turning it over to private operators. However at least the Finland example makes it clear the burden is on the government to provide the home for the simple reason it costs more to have people living on the streets than in a home.

    Its good to see the compassionate do gooder approach is also the most economically responsible approach

  19. Morrison blames ‘bullying’ in Gilmore for decision to install Warren Mundine

    ‘You don’t get to bully your way into a seat in the Liberal party,’ says PM, after dumped Liberal candidate Grant Schultz speaks out

    Scott Morrison has blamed Grant Schultz for a decision to overturn his preselection in the marginal seat of Gilmore, accusing the Liberal-turned-independent of undermining the sitting member.

    https://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/2019/jan/23/local-backlash-after-liberal-party-installs-warren-mundine-as-gilmore-candidate

  20. Don’t know why Murdoch has turned on Turnbull, after all Mal has delivered in spades by destroying the NBN.. it should be congratulations on a job well done.

    https://www.smh.com.au/business/consumer-affairs/got-slow-nbn-ask-for-a-refund-consumer-watchdog-says-20190123-p50t2g.html

    Eight service providers, including Telstra, Optus and TPG, admitted they likely made false or misleading representations about connection speeds certain NBN customers could experience. The retailers had been selling plans with maximum speeds when in reality, due to technological limitations, consumers simply could not get those speeds.

  21. Rex Douglas doubles down on the bull:

    What does he think of Bowens austerity approach re newstart/new immigrant welfare …?

    … The neoliberal attacks on the public sphere, ranging from Centrelink to public schools to the public broadcaster, are proof that excluded still “really take up too much space” and that what remains of the commons must be carved up and sold off or, better still, given away to the deserving rich to further enrich themselves. The champions of inequality hate and loathe the public sphere. It reeks, to them, of the promise of democracy.

    Dr John Falzon did NOT say this about Chris Bowen. Nor would he. For reasons I have already outlined.

    Cut the crap, Rex Douglas!

  25. https://www.pollbludger.net/2019/01/23/midweek-melange/comment-page-9/#comment-3055992

    Holiday homes are likely to be less effected by negative gearing changes because they are not able to be negatively geared while they are being used by the owner and are thus purchased more by people who can afford they with less negative gearing.

    Owner-occupiership of flats is a sustainable method of flat ownership, allowing the proportion of flats owned by landlords to be diminished.

    There are lots of houses owned that were purchased using negative gearing in the current market.

    Demand for housing can be increased through increasing and/or restoring to existing properties the First Home Owners Grant.

    Removing Negative Gearing would mean that prospective owner-occupiers who are outbid by investors under Negative Gearing are in a better position to buy because they would be harder to outbid and thus over time the proportion of owner-occupiers will increase and the portion of landlords will decrease and because owner-occupier households will be replacing tenant households at an approximate 1 to 1 ratio, that movement will have little to no effect on rents.

    Building incentives and vacancy taxes are a better means of having housing available to those who need it, as they target the increasable parts of the housing supply, than negative gearing on existing properties that mainly inflates the price of housing already being used as housing and in a way that favours many of the wealthy parts of society over the vast majority of people.

    Given the negative effects often imposed on tenants of the landlord system through limited tenure, poor maintenance, rent increases, etc., it is a system that should be minimised.

    Significant public/social housing construction, which is a good policy, needs money and removing Negative Gearing is a good way or raising money.

  26. @Poroti – “You don’t get to bully your way into a seat in the Liberal party,’ says PM,

    Worked a treat for you though eh mate ? . Vicious thug.

    Scrot has long specialised in lacking personal insight and chutzpah!

  28. guytaur: “There, the number of homeless is steadily decreasing. So what have they been doing differently?”

    It’s an interesting approach. However, the reduction in Helsinki appears to be much less significant than in the regions.

    It’s always been my impression that there are two main types of homeless people. 1) Those who are financially unable to access housing and end up sleeping in their car, couch-surfing, etc. ; and 2) those who sleep rough for a range of reasons, including personal preference.

    Those in category 2 tend to suffer from a wide range of problems – mental illness, drug addiction, fleeing abusive home life, hiding from the authorities (because of a real or imagined problem), etc.
    While the obvious solution to people in category 1 is to provide them with affordable housing, this isn’t by any means the whole of the answer for people in category 2.

    One would assume that Finnish people in category 2 are likely to gravitate to a big city like Helsinki.

    Therefore, one possible reading of these stats is that the Finnish authorities have done really well at solving the problem of category 1 homeless, particularly in the regions, but haven’t done so well with category 2. And that what the stats really show is that other countries have dropped the ball a bit with the category 1 type of homeless: which is certainly the case in Australia, as a result of the abandonment by both sides of politics of a strategy of investing in the provision of social housing. Back in the “good old days”, housing services had a significant stock of dwellings that they could allocate to people who had suddenly found themselves homeless due to marital breakdown, unexpected eviction by a landlord, a personal financial catastrophe, etc. This is no longer the case, as I understand it.

  30. Farmering Dad
    @DamienCWalker
    The Endeavor replica will travel around the country on a bus and be put in the water just outside each town.

    😆

  31. MB

    Ah yes. Post information on something that works as the World Economic Forum informs us and you find a way to say why that is wrong.

  39. @Peg

    You are asking for a leader of opposition to have majority of details before the election.

    Opposition Party does not have the same powers or access that of the party in power.

    Unfortunately, Greeenies never been in the position for that.

  40. Re Warringah

    Over the last few weeks, no fewer than 21 names (including at least 1 “very high profile” person, now apparently withdrawn) have been mentioned as potential candidates in Warringah. Of the names floated, only the following are definite, but a new definite entrant is expected by Sunday, possibly today.

    1 ABBOTT Tony LIB Definite Endorsed
    2 GLANVILLE Krystin GRN Definite Endorsed
    3 HARRIS Dean ALP Definite Endorsed
    4 LOVEGROVE Darryl IND Definite https://www.lovegrove-for-warringah.com/
    5 MOYLAN-COOMBS Susan IND Definite Campaign launched
    6 THOMPSON Alice IND Definite
    Interesting that 4 of the names now fundamentally out of contention were Rugby Union people

    There are, by my count, no fewer than 15 groups active in the area, 9 of which are ABBA groups – Any Bastard But Abbott

    # ABBREV Full name Type1
    1 CoaG Coalition of anti-Abbott groups ABBA
    2 GROT Get Rid of Tony Abbott ABBA
    3 GUWC Get-up Warringah Campaign 3RD Party: status under review by AEC
    4 MG Mosman Group Associated Entity
    5 NSES North Shore Environmental Stewards ABBA
    6 OWA Out With Abbott 3RD Party
    7 PoW People of Warringah ABBA
    8 SA Stop Adani ABBA
    9 SB Solar Beach ABBA
    10 TTW Think Twice Warringah ABBA
    11 TUT Times Up Tony ABBA
    12 VoW Voices of Warringah 3RD Party
    13 VTO Vote Tony Out Associated Entity
    14 W19 Whatever happened to them?? 3RD Party
    15 WoW Women of Warringah ABBA
    AEC or GL classification
    Associated entity Group associated with, supportive of, or opposed to, a particular candidate
    3RD Party Educative entity promoting electoral awareness and discussion
    ABBA = “Any Bastard But Abbott” group
    CAND = group who will run a Candidate

  44. Thank you, Geoff Lambert! 🙂

    Now they just have to get their preferencing house in order and they could get Abbott’s Araldited backside out of his seat!

  46. Flynn Schulz

    ‏ @FlynnSchulz
    Jan 22

    Labor has chosen a Fiona Phillips as our candidate for Gilmore. A local mum and TAFE teacher, Fiona has lived in Gilmore for over 40 years.

    In recent times, she has been a strong and active voice for local community issues.
    #auspol @fiboydphillips

  48. On Twitter

    Pauline ‘bird brain’ Hanson is calling for a royal commission into solar panels because they ’cause cancer’. How long to we have to endure people of this calibre in our parliament?

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