At last, a statewide Victorian poll result – and it suggests the betting markets might have been on to something in their move to Labor. The YouGov Galaxy poll for the Herald Sun gives Labor a 53-47 lead on two-party preferred, which compares with a result of almost exactly 52-48 in 2014. The two parties are reportedly both on 40% of the primary vote – as Kevin Bonham observes, this would be more indicative of a result of 54-46, which raises the possibility (though by no means the certainty) the the Greens are down. More to follow. UPDATE: Actually, the Greens are a solid 11%. Daniel Andrews leads Matthew Guy as preferred premier by 47-35.
UPDATE: In a spirit of long-awaited buses arriving all at once, The Age has a uComms/ReachTEL poll, conducted yesterday evening from 1239 respondents, which concurs with YouGov Galaxy in recording something of a Labor blowout. Labor leading 39% to 36% on the primary vote, with the Greens on 10.4%, which converts into 54-46 on two-party preferred, presumably on the basis of respondent-allocated preferences. Nothing further on the primary vote yet, but Labor leads 53-47 as best party on population and 56.6-43.3 on cost of living (The Age report seems inconsistent in its approach to rounding), while the Coalition leads 52-48 on crime.
“Luckily, my strong sense of ethics stopped me directing her to vote Labor ”
You make all of us proud, Gareth…. We Progressives must never lose our moral and ethical supremacy… in the end, it always pays off.
I see that Ratnam is running from public scrutiny on the Greens’ scandals.
I remind her of Item Four of the Greens Policy Statement on Women:
4. Women have the right to live free from harassment, fear, violence and abuse.
Hint. That includes Greens women.
“@Leon – Zoidlord is correct, it is an illusion that the Liberals do better on crime.”…
…. and it’s also an illusion that they are better “Economic managers”…
The Libs are a party that feeds on spin and illusion at the kitchen of the MSM…. But their invitation to join them at their table is falling more and more on deaf ears….
“I see that Ratnam is running from public scrutiny on the Greens’ scandals.”…
Yes, it is a very bad look. First they complain that the MSM ignore them (“unfair, bias, ploy of the rich and powerful, a threat to democracy… etc.”), then they don’t show up when they are invited….
That’s a behaviour that leans very dangerously towards “Clowning”….
As of the close of pre-poll and postal vote returns from yesterday
Here are the early votes ranked by % of votes cast in each seat
St Albans 46%
South-West Coast 43%
Bass 43%
Mornington 43%
Ovens Valley 42%
South Barwon 42%
Kororoit 41%
Werribee 41%
Wendouree 40%
Nepean 40%
Footscray 40%
Benambra 39%
Mill Park 38%
Carrum 38%
Cranbourne 38%
Morwell 37%
Essendon 37%
Eltham 37%
Caulfield 37%
Ferntree Gully 37%
Sydenham 37%
Narre Warren South 37%
Sunbury 37%
Croydon 36%
Bendigo East 36%
Altona 36%
Albert Park 36%
Rowville 36%
Mordialloc 36%
Bundoora 35%
Gembrook 35%
Tarneit 35%
Gippsland South 35%
Melton 35%
Pascoe Vale 35%
Ivanhoe 35%
Sandringham 35%
Niddrie 34%
Prahran 34%
Bellarine 34%
Geelong 34%
Mount Waverley 34%
Keysborough 33%
Buninyong 33%
Bulleen 33%
Oakleigh 33%
Malvern 33%
Narracan 33%
Hastings 33%
Kew 33%
Bayswater 33%
Forest Hill 32%
Brunswick 32%
Brighton 32%
Lara 32%
Gippsland East 32%
Yan Yean 32%
Box Hill 32%
Frankston 32%
Bentleigh 32%
Melbourne 32%
Lowan 32%
Warrandyte 32%
Preston 32%
Dandenong 31%
Bendigo West 31%
Mulgrave 31%
Evelyn 31%
Ringwood 31%
Shepparton 31%
Mildura 31%
Burwood 31%
Narre Warren North 31%
Yuroke 31%
Northcote 30%
Richmond 30%
Clarinda 29%
Hawthorn 29%
Macedon 29%
Murray Plains 28%
Williamstown 27%
Thomastown 26%
Monbulk 26%
Ripon 25%
Polwarth 25%
Eildon 23%
Euroa 23%
Broadmeadows 23%
Prepoll counting by the VEC will take a long time
I wouldn’t ant to be calling a seat on Saturday night if it is close until I know the pre-poll result
I expect a number of people who normally postal vote to pre-poll so the Libs should do slightly better in pre-poll compared to on day voting
I wonder if St Albans will get ot 50% of the vote today?
it looks as though the Vic upper house is the main game. Labor progressives will regret preferencing RWNJs over the greens – the stupid fuckers learnt nothing from preferencing steve fielding over the greens. It shows that the conservative Labor forces still run the party, and their objective is hold power to do deals with benefactors to keep holding power. I remember a labor unity person once telling me “The main reason to be in government is so the other side isn’t” – funnily the slogan “Vote 1 Labor”: Less shithouse than the libs (for at least the first term of government, after that we have basically the same benefactors and policies) ” didn’t take off. Australia’s labor is to the right of conservative governments in many parts of the world. They only appear a centre party because they have let the libs veer so far to the right.
I’ll be happy to see the Vic libs lose, but wish Labor had not saddled the state with micro-minors calling the shots in the upper house.
Captain Moonlight
Not sure if the pre-poll votes will break Libward. I reckon in a bunch of seats a lot were actually the politically-engaged progressives. The middle-of-the-roaders, the disinterested and the conservatives will leave it to Saturday.
When I voted at Carrum last week it was moderately busy (or so I thought, it turns out to have been pretty quiet compared to yesterday arvo), then when my wife went on Wednesday this week it was fairly quiet (but she had a shocking time running the gauntlet – she always refuses all HTVs, and Donna Bauer in particular was standing closest to the door and got right in her face, basically trying to physically stop her entering unless she took a card. Desperate times for the Libs in the marginals it seems).
But then last night there was a line a block long waiting, maybe partly due to the gee-up from the Leaders debate.
Sustainable future
The greens are reaping what they sow.
“The greens are reaping what they sow.”
And getting increasingly bitter about it
Perhaps the Greens political party performance in the upper house was an inevitable outcome of narrow casting and pouring most of their resources into the inner city seats of the gentrifying bourgeois left?
No, it’s Labor’s fault for not preferencing a party who campaigns against it and whose stated mission is to replace it
They have become a parody of themselves
Expat
I think you might be write if we are just looking at early voters,however I am wondering those that normally vote postal (and this category favors the libs) now vote pre-poll it could mean a differnet % than election day voting
Anyway next Victorian election, expect the VEC to have an increased budget as they will need more staff to covers the 2 weeks pre-poll than this time around
Frednk. Maybe, but labor (and victoria) will likely reap a bitter harvest from preferencing right wing micro parties.
I forgot to say some seats yesterday had more than 3,500 people vote
GhostWhoVotes
@GhostWhoVotes
13h13 hours ago
#Galaxy Poll VIC Preferred Premier: Andrews ALP 47 (+7) Guy LIB 35 (+2) #vicvotes #auspol
People should be aware that the number of pre-polls reported on the VEC as taken in an electorate is a total of ballot papers issued for all electorates, not just the district where the votes are cast. For instance, the seat of Melbourne will take many thousands of pre-polls for other districts. Other district pre-polls won’t be counted on the night.
Sustainable future
Perhaps time will tell; an unknown. The Greens being unreliable is a known.
Same same to you.
The pre poll situation means an awful of votes are going to be left uncounted on Saturday.
Most people will pre poll at their closest pre poll booth, which is often in the neighbouring electorate.
Guess it doesn’t matter in the end but the VEC haven’t really gone out of their way to maximise pre polling booths in the centre of electorates.
A lot of the northern part of Brunswick for instance per poll in Thirnbury for example- simply because it is closer.
Likely there will be a lot of uncalled seats on Saturday.
It actually won’t take that long to count the pre-polls cast within the electorate because they’re being processed from 4pm onwards. The hardest part is unfolding all the votes. Sorting, Counting and double checking the primary votes and then doing the two party preferred doesn’t take as long.
It gets difficult in a seat like Prahran where it is unclear who the final count will be between. I was once at booth where we got a call to change from National Vs Labor to National vs Liberals.
Sustainable future:
Frednk. Maybe, but labor (and victoria) will likely reap a bitter harvest from preferencing right wing micro parties.
———-
True. They will also reap the harvest of progressive voters voting below the line in the LC and not including the ALP’s candidates among the 5 + preferred candidates.
I will be very interested to see the stats on how many go beliw the line this year.
Lots of chatter about it on social media, GetUp! had Ben Raue’s video, which seems to have been getting a few shares etc. We can only hope people take the extra 20 secs and help upend Druery’s tangle.
The uComms/Reachtel poll last night of 54:46 has breakdown by gender of
M: ALP:40, LNP:29, GRN: 14
F: ALP:38, LNP:43, GRN:7
https://www.afr.com/news/victorian-election-2018-daniel-andrews-and-labor-in-winning-position–poll-20181122-h187ib
The one last week was 56:44
M: ALP:36.1, LNP:38.2, GRN: 10.2
F: ALP:39.1, LNP:32.4, GRN:10.1
https://vnpa.org.au/wp-content/uploads/2018/11/Polling-13-Nov-2018.pdf
That is a change of
M: ALP:+3.9, LNP:-9.2, GRN: +3.8
F: ALP:-1.1, LNP:+10.6, GRN:-3.1
Given that ALP vote has been stronger for Female than Male for years
The huge jump in Female liberal voters, and huge gap between M and F
Twice as many Male voters than Female Green voters in latest poll.
I think the 56:44 is more believable from the breakdown.
EDIT: Or Financial review made a typo ?
> I see that Ratnam is running from public scrutiny
She was on Jon Faine this morning, according to Chris.
@B.S. Fairman
> It gets difficult in a seat like Prahran where it is unclear who the final count will be between. I was once at booth where we got a call to change from National Vs Labor to National vs Liberals.
Not in Prahran, presumably.
Hi Ante Meridian
I understood your point but I guess I wasn’t completely clear/explicit about mine.
Amongst other reasons why the ALP perhaps didn’t see it as a failure, is that it’s easier for Labor to work with Fiona Patten and then get a bill which the Greens won’t hate, then it is to work with the Greens directly.
It might also reduces the Greens’ power, since they know that in order for a bill to pass, it needs the support of Labor + Greens + someone else. So they see there’s a point beyond which they can’t pull Labor if they want the bill to pass – namely, what someone else will support. Whereas if it’s easier to get it through the Greens than a rabble, the Greens might seem themselves having more power since they just need to be a little closer to Labor than the rabble is.
Which is to say, although Labor might have to satisfy more parties to govern, the Greens also have to satisfy more parties to have any role other than supporting the Liberals. So it has the same effect on both parties, but only Labor is the government and so only Labor has a choice. (Labor can get a bill through with the Liberals or with the Greens. Obviously the Greens would prefer bills they support, so they’re compelled to be more cooperative)
Well put, felix. I suspect you are dealing with the unpersuadable though
Bs Fairman – pre-polls will take longer than polling places to count because there are a more votes to count. The sorting by district will occur between 4 and 6, then the count of home district votes will begin.
Prahran is no more difficult than any other electorate. The candidates that preferences will be counted out to are nominated before hand. It doesn’t matter what order the candidates finish, it is an indicative count only and pre-nominated.
I doubt any pre-poll results will be officially available before 8:30
https://www.pollbludger.net/2018/11/22/yougov-galaxy-53-47-labor-victoria/comment-page-3/#comment-3008923
There have been bills that both the ALP and Greens want to pass to but have not got a majority in the Legislative Council because of the ALP preferencing. Remember the recently expired Parliament required ALP plus Greens plus Patten and another MLC to pass anything. This stopped the ALP passing its legislation to reorganise the fire services because the ALP had preferenced Vote 1 Local Jobs in Western Victoria ahead of the Greens, electing an MLC who was less favourable to the ALP than another Green MLC would have been.
Felix,
So Labor and the Greens having to push their agendas to the right to get them past right-wing micros is a good thing because it reduces the Greens’ power?
Roger is right. I’m unpersuaded.
This bus promise from Guy is genuine. ScumMo is already roadtesting the first extra bus in Qld.
https://www.theage.com.au/politics/victoria/we-can-still-win-says-matthew-guy-as-he-pledges-70m-for-new-bus-routes-20181123-p50hup.html
@bug1
it has been the case across all western countries in recent years, Australia being no exception, that there is a tendency of women increasingly voting for the left and men increasingly voting for the right. It is impossible for that poll to be accurate as it implies the contrary.
@B.S. Fairman
I’m really interested to see what 2CP the VEC instruct as the count for Prahran polling places. Logic would say Greens v Liberal because the Greens MP is the sitting member but an ALP v Liberal 2CP is just as likely to be the end result I think (my hunch is even more so, I predict an ALP gain).
In any case, even if the VEC select the wrong 2CP to count tomorrow night and have to recount later in the week, that doesn’t necessarily mean the result won’t be called. If there is a 3-4% swing away from the Liberals as I am predicting, then it will be pretty clear who will win the final 2CP count even if they count the wrong one on the night.
For example if Saturday night’s 2CP count comes out at 54-46 Greens v Liberal but it turns out it should have been ALP v Liberal, there’s really no doubt who will win the ALP v Liberal recount.
Unless of course the ALP v Green primary votes are too close to clearly call second place without a recount (like 2014).
I am happy to report from the ACT that up here the ACT-Greens relationships work well in government without public dummy spits – Greens push the ALP on accountability issues & vote against them on those issues without evidence of general hysteria – without the Greens we would get no action on poker machines at all
Guy could also run a freight service by donating Costello’s ‘debt truck’ and similar.
Just in regard the so called “Red shirts” (by who?), did the Ombudsman make any call for Charges to be laid?
I think not, because if she had Charges would have been considered as a result of her recommendations
This matter is with Victoria Police because of a complaint by the Liberal Party
It is the Liberal Party using Victoria Police for political purposes – and trying to make as much as they can on the back of THEIR compliant ahead of an election
And at public cost
This is the DNA of the Liberal Party writ large
Jack the Insider has his two bob’s worth:
https://www.theaustralian.com.au/opinion/blogs/victorian-election-punters-point-to-a-labor-minority-government/news-story/3d7812b7495058caba92235e232d5310
D
It was Greensmail that forced us into the hideous and hugely expensive and very, very late PPP of the Light Rail.
Of course a certain Greens is rumoured to have received a nice little windfall capital gain out of having property in the Light Rail Zone.
I wonder if he withdrew from all the relevant light rail decisions for conflict of interest reasons?
Doug@ 12.46 – be careful, as such innocent observations are likely to bring down a volley of outrage from RW ALP posters on your head….It’s not a permitted narrative, and mere inconvenient facts be damned! You might get away with it on this quieter Vic elections thread.
Ha ! QED
max
Lying about the situation in the ACT is not an innocent observation.
But you knew that.
Max
The green party may not be able to work out the difference between labor and liberals but the green voters seem to be able to manage
Same same to you.
Did Ratnam promise a state-wide UBI for Victoria?
The CFA/MFB demarcation issue remains from the period of government prior to Andrews leading Labor to government
So an inherited matter Andrews has sought to resolve (CFA being a Country resource by volunteers – and their communities value and respect them volunteering)
But the CFA do not hold rank over MFB employees in the Metropolitan area – an area which now consists of former Country Fire Stations because the demographic has changed over the last 100 years)
And since the last election the Liberals have played politics with the issue – supported by Murdoch
The resolution has not passed the Parliament – failing by 1 Vote in the Upper House – and due to the demographic this matter plays out to.
So politics
The principal reason for this issue remaining unresolved is the Liberal Party playing politics
If the result tomorrow is the return of a Labor government AND the loss of Liberal numbers in the Upper House then the unaligned Members will have a decision as to supporting the politics of a Party which has lesser representation – and alienating because of that support for a Party with lesser representation so at odds with broader community opinion
Post this election the matter will resolve – including because it has been festering for over 6 years now purely for the politics and opposition pandering to a demographic
Observer
Yes, many people would be surprised by this map. A complex issue with Melbourne’s expansion.
https://www.cfa.vic.gov.au/about/cfa-and-mfb-boundaries
I asked the following question of a few of my friends on email…
For your democracy sausage, are you eating:
What is claimed to be live exported beef sausages sourced from an illegally irrigated farm under a dodgy basin plan and allowed to graze on Alpine national parkland on conservatively sliced white bread?
Unionized highly processed manufactured meat on wholegrain which looks like white bread, tastes like white bread and is probably about as good for you as the white bread is.
Or will you choose a flavour-less vegie burger served on what’s listed as an ethically sourced gluten free sour dough roll but may not actually be if you check the lyrics.
The responses thus far:
The union pink Woolworths sausage is the least bad, I think. The high country beef is contaminated with lobster. The vegie burger has fallen into pieces.
********************
The high country beef has also been on a bus tour in QLD via several planes.
*********************
The unionized sausage has a reported shelf life of over 50 years. How many preservatives are in it?
If I were voting in Victoria tomorrow, which I probably wont since I live in NSW, I would take note of the LNP policy to sell off the state water treatment facilities to private operators; and just that one thing alone would mean i would never vote for them.
Even if they lose this election (highly likely) they will come back to this policy some time in the future when they get into Govt.
A monopoly public utility should never be privatised – too many examples of how bad this usually works out – just ask the South Australians when they sold theirs to a French company some years ago.
Orr is asking Shipton about a recent announcement from Asic that it will begin putting Asic staff onsite at five financial institutions – ANZ, CBA, NAB, Westpac and AMP.
It’s called the close and continuous monitoring program, or the CCM program.
Just like the embedded journalists in Iraq — Absolute lay-down-misere for corporate capture of the regulator!!
I love it when simple experiments in infant psychology produce such telling results!
Alpha Zero – you should have added a selection of 14 differently named but remarkably similar offerings which all sounded a bit dodgy. “Sustainable Sausage Future”, “Australian Lamb Alliance” etc
booleanbach -someone suggested to me that this policy really was full of sh*t
It all comes back to the supposed “efficiencies” of private enterprise, whereas the reality is profit-gouging of a public utility monopoly. And we all know how that ended up with electricity, gas etc
booleanbach,
When the Liberals get back into government (sooner or later) and want to sell off the water treatment facilities, they will almost certainly get the required bills through the upper house because Labor and the Greens won’t have the combined numbers to stop them. Because one guess why.
EVERYONE has the right to live their lives free of intimidation, violence, harassment and fear – including particularly children who have no voice
This is not a gender specific issue – as some seek to make it for their own reasons and purposes
AM
It is raining in Melbourne
Get over it
The Greens are irrelevant and have been post Bob Brown
To present that Labor need the Greens so are subservient to the Greens and any current or future Greens representation is a nonsense
The Liberals with their agenda have to be elected in the first instance – and if they are that is the determination of the electorate at that time and for that outcome
The Greens really are a nonsense