YouGov Galaxy: 53-47 to Labor in Victoria; ReachTEL: 54-46

The first big media poll since the start of the campaign finds Labor looking strong ahead of Saturday’s Victorian election.

At last, a statewide Victorian poll result – and it suggests the betting markets might have been on to something in their move to Labor. The YouGov Galaxy poll for the Herald Sun gives Labor a 53-47 lead on two-party preferred, which compares with a result of almost exactly 52-48 in 2014. The two parties are reportedly both on 40% of the primary vote – as Kevin Bonham observes, this would be more indicative of a result of 54-46, which raises the possibility (though by no means the certainty) the the Greens are down. More to follow. UPDATE: Actually, the Greens are a solid 11%. Daniel Andrews leads Matthew Guy as preferred premier by 47-35.

UPDATE: In a spirit of long-awaited buses arriving all at once, The Age has a uComms/ReachTEL poll, conducted yesterday evening from 1239 respondents, which concurs with YouGov Galaxy in recording something of a Labor blowout. Labor leading 39% to 36% on the primary vote, with the Greens on 10.4%, which converts into 54-46 on two-party preferred, presumably on the basis of respondent-allocated preferences. Nothing further on the primary vote yet, but Labor leads 53-47 as best party on population and 56.6-43.3 on cost of living (The Age report seems inconsistent in its approach to rounding), while the Coalition leads 52-48 on crime.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

266 comments on “YouGov Galaxy: 53-47 to Labor in Victoria; ReachTEL: 54-46”

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  1. If the Libs can’t win, this poll may be an incentive for wavering voters to give Labor a surge to ensure the Greens can’t poison the system any longer.

  2. Herald-Sun editorial says “But with almost one in 10 voters leaning to independents, micro parties or undecided, swing votes remain in play.” Sounds from that that independents plus others is less than 10%, the Greens aren’t down and the 53-47 instead of 54-46 is either rounding or Galaxy making unusual preference allocations.

  3. This poll result explains why the Hun has been relatively even handed in recent days. Their US media mogul owner would not want them to back a loser.

  4. I predict Labor could increase it’s majority, although have to deal with a legislative council which the balance of power is held by right-wing populists.

  5. Interesting they they include undecideds in their “almost one in 10”. If those undecideds are excluded from the preference allocation, that might explain the discrepancy.

  6. GhostWhoVotes
    ‏ @GhostWhoVotes
    30s30 seconds ago

    #Galaxy Poll VIC State Primary Votes: ALP 40 (0) L/NP 40 (+1) GRN 11 (-1) #vicvotes #auspol

  7. If we take the Age results at face value, Labor’s primary vote has barely increased since four years ago, while the Coalition’s has gone through the floor. This is consistent with the long-term trend of votes drifting to ‘other’.

  8. Ante – yes and looking at the Galaxy one, I will surprised if Labor+Coalition =80, or if Labor+Coalition+Green = 91, I think both totals will be lower.

    But having felt like I have been waiting in the pumpkin patch since Sunday night for the Great Pumpkin to rise and drop polls on us, I am excited that we have two – and on Thanksgiving what’s more!

    Back to Victoria to vote this weekend, away from the dust-storms (clear today as it has all blown east)

  9. Rossmcg – me too.

    Gotta love the Ghost!

    – favourite ever Phantom scene.
    – boarding a plane incognito as Mr.Walker

    Cabin Crew – “I’m sorry, sir, you can’t take that dog on board the plane”

    ‘Mr. Walker’ (boarding) – “It’s not a dog, it’s a wolf.”

  10. The difference between the primary votes on those two polls is significant, and could have important implications for the upper house, where 2PP doesn’t come into it. Especially for the Liberals, 36% rather than 40% could mean the loss of a couple of critical seats.

    And speaking of the Legislative Council…

    I’ve been having another play with the Eastern Metro calculator, and I now consider the election of Transport Matters is not the certainty I had heretofore believed. There’s a possible fly in their ointment, and it could come down to another piece of confusion over names.

    It’s like this.

    The vote for Fiona Patten’s Reason Party collapses because nobody knows who the hell they are
    Their votes are mostly soaked up By Liberal, Labor, and the Greens
    The new micro-parties don’t get more than about 0.5% each (including Hinch’s Justice)
    Transport Matters becomes vulnerable to exclusion at the 18th count.

    The calculator still has them winning, but if as few as about 3% of the other micro-party votes are below the line and exhaust before getting to TM, they will slip behind the Greens and be knocked out. Sadly for the Greens, they won’t win the seat themselves, but will deliver it to the Liberal Party (not because of their preferences, which go to Labor, but because of the preferences released when TM is knocked out).

    Conclusion : The system is fragile and chaotic and, basically, stuffed.

  11. Rocket

    Mr Walker … in my local target store the PA message “telephone call Mr Walker” I think was code for something.
    Maybe the Phantom was In charge of security.
    Ideal man for job

  12. “Rossmcg says:
    Thursday, November 22, 2018 at 9:51 pm
    As a kid who grew up on Phantom comics every time I see “Ghost Who Votes” I smile.”

    Does anyone recall if the (comic book) Phantom ever married his perennial girlfriend Diana?

  13. I was talking to my uber driver yesterday who was an Australian about 60. He hated Andrews and the government but they are at least building things. I did not dare to ask about Taxi number plate as an issue.

    These polls show Labor is likely to win a majority. Even if the Greens win all five seats they aiming for and Labor doesn’t win others, they could always Sheed speaker.

    Although on these figures South Barwon would virtually impossible for the Liberals to hold. Bass might not fall.

    As always the State is not a monolith. The Law and Order campaign might cause a swing to the Liberals in the Western surburbs but win them zero seats. If there is a place crime got out of control in was in west and north. Likewise the East might swing harder to Labor as it barely moved last time.

  14. Citizen,

    Confirmed bachelor I’m afraid.

    If he did marry Diana, there would be complications because of the mechanism he used to ‘never die’.

  15. Oh the other day, Ladbrokes had odds of 40 to 1 for the Greens to win zero seats. It has now fallen $15. Lucky I got on early. Unlikely to happen but I figure the odds on it happening were higher than 2.5%.

  16. 2014 was;
    ALP: 36.25
    LNP: 44.75
    GRN: 11.48%
    OTH: 7.25

    So this reachtel is
    ALP: 39 (+2.75)
    LNP: 36 (-8.75)
    GRN: 10.4 (-1.08)
    OTH: 14.6 (+7.35)

    That swing against LNP is most telling, unsurprising bump to Labor, understandable greens are down at least 1 given dramas, but 20% of LNP primary voters have walked away, thats the real story here imo.

    ALP needs 2.4% swing to take Melbourne Back, and those swings will make Prahran look favorable to ALP also. Labor could get to 50.
    It would be nice to see a surprise independent somewhere as well.

  17. Thanks to all for filling me in on the Phantom wedding. It must have happened in 1977 and I had lost touch with the Ghost Who Walks by that time!

  18. Bug 1, in 2014 the Labor Party polled 38.1% and the Coalition 42% which makes the change on first preferences Labor +0.9% and the Coalition -6%

  19. Based on the current pendulum, a 2% swing to the Government would barely net 2 additional seats, but the effect of the next redistribution should be to give the ALP (if the polls are right) a very healthy margin going into 2022. A third term is much harder to win than a second, so that healthy margin is likely to be very welcome.

  20. @Greensborough Growler

    The Victorian Greens are sane in comparison to the right-wing populist candidates that could get elected. You only need to look at the rabble in the current federal senate about what kind damage they can do. Those Senators are truly the unrepresentative swill .

  21. Consistent with what I have been hearing from those with Liberal Party identities – and there are more than a few who are happy with this trend

    The Liberal Party is fatally divided

    Watch the fireworks after Saturday

    The irony is that with the outcome of the Cormack action they are fighting for control of nix, nought, nothing

    And that includes 104 which was bought with the proceeds of the sale of their former radio station

    Ashes to ashes, dust to dust

  22. A drop of 6% in the Coalition vote without a corresponding rise for Labor is bad news for Labor in the seats where it relies on Liberal preferences to beat the Greens. Although with the Liberals mostly running dead in those seats this time, it might not make a huge difference.

    And of course, it’s good news for Labor everywhere else.

  23. Re the ReachTEL the AFR has published it rounded to whole numbers with Others (inc Ind) on 10 and “Undecided” 5. My best attempt to redistribute undecided on the patchy data we have gives Labor 40.9 Coalition 37.7 Green 10.9 Ind/Other 10.5. Wish ReachTEL would conform to the industry standard method on reporting primary vote headlines.

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