Updated with this week’s Newspoll, the BludgerTrack poll aggregate records a half-point gain for Labor on the two-party preferred, along with two gains on the seat projection, one each in New South Wales and Queensland. Bill Shorten also seems to be enjoying a modest upswing in his net approval trend; I still haven’t found time to sort out a trend for Scott Morrison, despite the fact that I probably have enough data to work with now. Another feature of BludgerTrack this week is that I’m now counting Wentworth as an independent seat, and following my usual policy of assuming elected minor party and independent incumbents will be re-elected.
Speaking of Wentworth, there has been no further progress in the count since last week, presumably because the Australian Electoral Commission has been waiting for the last eligible postal votes to trickle in before yesterday’s deadline. This should mean a few hundred votes will shortly be added to a score line that has Kerryn Phelps with a lead of 1783. You can find my detailed results display for Wentworth here, and BludgerTrack through the link below.
Note also the post below this one, an extensive summary of news from the Victorian election campaign. Not to mention the post below that, in which I plead for donations.
If the rumours about an election on the 8th of Decemer are true, the writs must be issued today.
Ante Meridian @ #1450 Monday, November 5th, 2018 – 12:27 pm
More logical explanation: the rumours are rubbish.
A December 8th election would have to be called today or tomorrow (Melbourne Cup Day). Parliamentary sittings for November and December (Senate only next week, both houses Nov 26-Dec 6) would be cancelled. Phelps would not take her seat unless re-elected.
A December 15 election could be called as late as next Tuesday and Parliamentary sittings would also need to be cancelled.
Steve777 @ #1442 Monday, November 5th, 2018 – 12:16 pm
I wonder if the Greens have an opportunity to become a major party on the centre-right, opposing Labor on the centre-left. They do appear to do well in well to do electorates. (Climate ought be a common issue for left and right, city and country.) Fun speculation if nothing else.
Jackol @ #1146 Monday, November 5th, 2018 – 8:15 am
I know a great deal about the stone age, the good and the bad. I have no desire to return to that lifestyle.
The Virgin nonsense came in on top of the veterans discount card nonsense and the 500 million War Memorial nonsense….I know defense is supposedly the LNP’s strong point, but talk about overkill! What next, all veterans nominated for sainthood?
Steve,
My understanding is that the minimum time from the issue of the writs to the election itself is 33 days, and 33 days before a Saturday is a Monday (unless I’m suffering from a fence-post problem, which is possible).
Just saw Kudelka’s excellent cartoon that BK linked to this morning –
https://cdn.newsapi.com.au/image/v1/b626275f64ad78b0810a566b65668383
And I thought – a journalist should ask Morrison this at one of those “Spontaneous” pressers –
“Prime Minister, with regard to your plan for Military Veterans to board planes first because of the community’s debt of gratitude to them, where in the boarding order should current politicians come?”
Steve777
says:
Monday, November 5, 2018 at 1:16 pm
If the Greens want to become the major party on the left, they’ll have to talk to and get the votes of people who care more about their mortgage, power prices and their job than about the climate, asylum seekers or the environment.
_________________________________
The primary objective for the Greens is to permanently hold enough HoR seats that the ALP need them to form a Coalition to hold government. At that point we will have 2 competing Coalitions.
lizzie @ #1428 Monday, November 5th, 2018 – 12:43 pm
Fantastic article (though a bit depressing).
Thanks for linking – I’ve passed it on to several others already.
November 11th being the centenary of the Armistice probably has something to do with all the drum-beating and rah-rahing lately. Not to mention the hundreds of millions about to be spent on rennos to the War Memorial.
“The primary objective for the Greens is to permanently hold enough HoR seats that the ALP need them to form a Coalition to hold government. At that point we will have 2 competing Coalitions.”
And my hair will have grown back.
don
I saw some interesting stuff in Europe recently – paleolithic and neolithic tools. I seem to remember you discussing this recently. I was actually far more captivated by that stuff than all the Roman/Medieval/Renaissance things on show.
I think partly because there is an inherent fascination with what happened when people first worked together and first used tools. And also you get that palpable sense of “this is a piece of hard stone that an actual person sharpened 7000 years ago for a purpose”. I wanted to get them out of the cabinets and hold them, and use them. Probably would have been arrested though!
While I am not saying I believe the December election rumblings – it would prevent Dutton and Crewther (or whatever his name is) being forced to the high court
BB
Tones will be spewing he got the DCM preventing him ‘bantum rooster’ strutting about for both the opening and closing centenaries. Bad as it is under Scrott Tones would have turned the dial up to 11.
Gecko
says:
Monday, November 5, 2018 at 1:41 pm
“The primary objective for the Greens is to permanently hold enough HoR seats that the ALP need them to form a Coalition to hold government. At that point we will have 2 competing Coalitions.”
And my hair will have grown back.
____________________________
That the ALP preselects left wingers for Batman, Grayndler and Sydney is their best hope of holding off the Greens. But I think long term the Greens could end up holding 4-6 seats permanently. The ALP will need them to form government then.
Forget it peeps… they will hold on for as long as humanly possible. They’re Liberals, it’s their right to rule… pull yourselves together.
“November 11th being the centenary of the Armistice ”
Can i lodge an off the wall prediction for the next #ScoMofwarksup???
Announce an election date and issue the writs on Armistice Day?? 🙁
. But I think long term the Greens could end up holding 4-6 seats permanently….
Or long term they could end up like the Democrats.
Ante Meridian
I am amazed to find that in maths I never heard that term “Fencepost error” to describe that ‘boundary’ problem. And I see it was recognized by a Roman architect/engineer Vitruvius 2000 years ago.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Off-by-one_error
The one that is always hard is counting years around BC/AD because there is no year zero in our calendar.
imacca
With the election date being Australia Day. A sure fire winner for their base as there could be nothing more patriotic than voting for the Coalition on Australia Day. 🙂
Gecko
says:
Monday, November 5, 2018 at 1:48 pm
. But I think long term the Greens could end up holding 4-6 seats permanently….
Or long term they could end up like the Democrats.
________________________________
Good luck with that. Even if that happens, another party left of the ALP will emerge. We are sick of the right-wing control of the ALP, liberal-lite gangsters.
“That the ALP preselects left wingers for Batman, Grayndler and Sydney is their best hope of holding off the Greens. But I think long term the Greens could end up holding 4-6 seats permanently. The ALP will need them to form government then.”
It’s amazing that ‘the left’ – whether it be the BernieBros in America, or the Corbynistas in the UK or The Greens in Oz merely assume that the centre-left party they are trying to either take over / supplant / form a coalition with will be able to hold the political centre ground when said take over / coalition occurs. There is pretty dubious evidence to suggest that would actually happen, especially as a long term proposition.
In my view if Labor ends up losing 4-6 inner city seats on its left flank to the Greens it needs to redouble its efforts in securing the marginal seats in the centre ground, because either ‘forming a coalition’ or simply ‘bending the knee’ to the Greens on policy issues runs the real risk of ceeding the political centre (hence government) to an undeserving LNP in virtual perpetuity.
nath @ #1469 Monday, November 5th, 2018 – 1:52 pm
Yeah, you, and a fairly consistent 8-10% of the Australian electorate. 🙂
We?
Interestingly the coach used by the PM on his ‘ScoMo Express’ tour of Queensland is a cheap and nasty import from Asia.
Ironic given that he is promoting Queensland jobs and there are two well known bus bodybuilding firm in Queensland – Bustech and Alan B Denning (a very famous coach builder)
Late Riser
says:
Monday, November 5, 2018 at 1:56 pm
We are sick of the right-wing control of the ALP, liberal-lite gangsters.
We?
_________________
I speak in the Royal tense now. Deal with it.
Andrew_Earlwood @ #1472 Monday, November 5th, 2018 – 1:54 pm
Agreed. Let the fringes disintegrate, as they always do. The ALP must concentrate on where the election will actually be won or lost (and hopefully won, of course).
So far, Shorten seems to be doing a fantastic job at not being diverted by the antics of the alt-left.
“We are sick of the right-wing control of the ALP, liberal-lite gangsters.”
Scoreboard!!!! 🙂
C@tmomma
Yeah, you, and a fairly consistent 8-10% of the Australian electorate.
__________________________
That’s enough, we just need them in the right places. Then we will have the ALP by the balls. 🙂
nath, we will.
I have big hopes for Melbourne Ports/Macnamara at the next election. With Danby’s personal following gone the ALP will struggle to hold it. Could be the second Greens seat in Victoria.
One by One they will all fall:
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=1L73O9vUWgo
nath says:
Monday, November 5, 2018 at 2:03 pm
C@tmomma
Yeah, you, and a fairly consistent 8-10% of the Australian electorate.
__________________________
That’s enough, we just need them in the right places. Then we will have the ALP by the balls.
I thought LWNJs always claim the ALP had no balls.
Is there an Essential poll due soon?
I think we all, including Andrew Leigh (who imho has underperformed admittedly very high expectations by a mile), need to just stop reading and responding to anything from any Murdoch stable. The role and the application of these propaganda machines is documented, it is obvious, it is clear it is deliberate. If you are at the Australian, or at Sky you may or may not know it but your purpose and the only result of your work is to weaken democracy, and work against freedom. If you are at any of these Murdoch organs that is what you are doing. It isn’t journalism.
Of course Nick Cater unfairly attacked Leigh’s piece, that is why the Australian exists, but lets all stop treating it as a fair and balanced house of journalism, where it is a tool of oppression and dishonesty.
Lets stop respecting anyone that works their. Maybe they are all completely evil. Maybe they had hoped to do good things but paying the mortgage was just more important. Who knows.
nath @ #1474 Monday, November 5th, 2018 – 2:02 pm
Yeah, appropriate for a right royal prat.
“With the election date being Australia Day. ”
poroti…you are evil. 🙂
“I wonder where @ScottMorrisonMP ‘s next
stop on the Demtel Tour of Qld will be?”
A factory that makes Steak Knives??
“Announce an election date and issue the writs on Armistice Day??”
It’s been done before – 1975.
Re the 33 days – I think they count the day writs are issued and election day – hence a minimum campaign is 5 days Tuesday to Saturday + four Sunday to Saturday weeks.
So who’s going to the Cup? 😆
@BOM_Vic
THUNDERSTORM FORECAST TUESDAY ️ Severe storms possible over much of #Victoria on #MelbourneCup day! Storms contracting to E Vic by late afternoon & to the NE at night. Heavy rain, damaging winds & large hail are all possible.
@torchbearer
Nah, Veterans will be knighted by Tony Abbott.
Rocket Rocket @ #1462 Monday, November 5th, 2018 – 1:42 pm
The ice ages are fascinating. Just as now, they had fads and memes.
It is interesting that stone age technology in Europe reached its zenith in the Solutrean, circa 20,000 years ago, when they made knives by ‘pressure flaking’ (rather than hitting it hard with a piece of reindeer antler) flint that had been heat-treated by burying it under the hearth for a few days. It came out in a state that you could do almost anything with it.
They made knives that were so large and thin that they were useless for anything except saying “That’s not a knife – this is a knife!”
Later they were content with more utilitarian but still superbly made, understated stone tools, during the Magdelanian, circa 15,000 years ago, but they were really into carving by that time, and some exquisite stuff was made – so much so that the masters of the craft signed their work, so you would know that it was done by the top artisan in your region, and it had status because of that.
My favourite, though, is the fashion for spearthrowers carved in the image of a doe or fawn, shitting a great turd, on which were perched a couple of parrots. The parrots were the hook that was inserted into a corresponding hollow in the back of the ‘dart’ (they were too long and thin to be called spears) and it was then hurled at reindeer or bison or mammoths or horses.
Judging by the numbers still extant, they must have made many hundreds of the things, all to much the same pattern.
The first meme.
Adolescent toilet humour has a long and distinguished historical record.
nath says:
Monday, November 5, 2018 at 2:02 pm
“I speak in the Royal tense now. Deal with it.”
—————————————
Grammatically, it’s “number” not “tense”. “Tense” applies to time.
Brilliant.
Steve777
“Announce an election date and issue the writs on Armistice Day??”
It’s been done before – 1975.”
“The Coalition of Fraser’s Liberal Party of Australia and Doug Anthony’s National Country Party secured government in its own right, winning the largest majority government to date in Australian history. The Liberals actually won a majority in their own right, with 68 seats–the first time that the main non-Labor party had done so since adopting the Liberal banner in 1944. Although Fraser had no need for the support of the National Country Party, the Coalition was retained.”
Ah Hah!! So it would resonate with history as well!! Come on ScoMo……..you know its makes sense!!
BB wrote (early this morning)
Excise is paid on fuel stored in the ground. Fuel changes volume depending on the ambient temperature. For the purposes of calculating excise, fuel is assumed to be pumped at an air temperature of 14 Celsius – this has been the rules since 1941
Has anyone checked the colour of the dye in the fuel Coles sells?
So some smart alec lawyer in Coles has decided the ATO is too gutted to put up an effective fight
The fallout continues from CA
Mark Taylor has resigned from the board
https://www.theage.com.au/sport/cricket/taylor-resigns-from-cricket-australia-board-as-turmoil-continues-20181105-p50e2o.html
The King of navel gazing?