Updated with this week’s Newspoll, the BludgerTrack poll aggregate records a half-point gain for Labor on the two-party preferred, along with two gains on the seat projection, one each in New South Wales and Queensland. Bill Shorten also seems to be enjoying a modest upswing in his net approval trend; I still haven’t found time to sort out a trend for Scott Morrison, despite the fact that I probably have enough data to work with now. Another feature of BludgerTrack this week is that I’m now counting Wentworth as an independent seat, and following my usual policy of assuming elected minor party and independent incumbents will be re-elected.
Speaking of Wentworth, there has been no further progress in the count since last week, presumably because the Australian Electoral Commission has been waiting for the last eligible postal votes to trickle in before yesterday’s deadline. This should mean a few hundred votes will shortly be added to a score line that has Kerryn Phelps with a lead of 1783. You can find my detailed results display for Wentworth here, and BludgerTrack through the link below.
Note also the post below this one, an extensive summary of news from the Victorian election campaign. Not to mention the post below that, in which I plead for donations.
@Akubra
This is what happens when John Howard came into power and gave more money to Sport (but shaved it elsewhere).
Total failure.
Michael A
says:
Monday, November 5, 2018 at 2:28 pm
nath says:
Monday, November 5, 2018 at 2:02 pm
“I speak in the Royal tense now. Deal with it.”
—————————————
Grammatically, it’s “number” not “tense”. “Tense” applies to time.
_____________________________________
I’ll let PJK deal with this one:
To former ALP MP Jim McClelland: “That you Jim? Paul Keating here. Just because you swallowed a fucking dictionary when you were about 15 doesn’t give you the right to pour a bucket of shit over the rest of us.”
I’m getting bloody nervous about Trump pulling off a win on Tuesday in the House.
The Dems have been miles in front in every poll. Early voting records. Young people voting. A supposed blue wave.
In the last day or so Trump ha been barnstorming on the economy and immigration fears. It seems to be working. Polls are rapidly tightening.
If the Republicans hang on to the Reps, Trump will claim a massive win. The Dems will look amateur , without leaders.
Massive implication for Australia – even more than domestic politics.
“The primary objective for the Greens is to permanently hold enough HoR seats that the ALP need them to form a Coalition to hold government. At that point we will have 2 competing Coalitions.”
Certainly feasible, if you can judge from the state level. In Victoria the Greens currently have five seats in the upper house, and three seats in the lower house. Add a few more, and you can see how they could regularly hold the balance of power after a close-enough election.
There are 28 judges sitting on the Supreme Court of Queensland’s bench, including the Chief Justice and the President. Palmer has just succeeded in an application to have a second judge recuse himself on the basis of apprehended bias. Two down, 26 to go:
https://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/2018/nov/05/clive-palmer-accused-of-scandalising-conduct-as-second-judge-steps-down-from-trial
Question @ #1497 Monday, November 5th, 2018 – 2:33 pm
Nah.
🙂
When I read the headline that Coles was fighting the ATO about paying for fuel that had evaporated I wondered why the Environmental Protection Authority hadn’t closed down the petrol stations with leaking tanks as environmental hazards. Who wants fuel leaking into the waterways and soil?
https://www.smh.com.au/business/companies/coles-in-40-million-claim-against-tax-office-over-disappearing-fuel-20181104-p50dvm.html
Zoidlord
Re CA debacle. Agree.
I’m surprised that after the truly awful performance yesterday the crowd just didn’t storm the dressing rooms and wheel in the guillotine — although to be fair the team is relatively young and inexperienced.
Has their been any news re the ratings on pay TV re the match?
torchbearer@1:33pm
Sainthood for veterans?
………
Yes
Paul Keating had great foresight as well. He could see nath, and his attempts to maul us, coming a mile away and all those years ago:
It was like being flogged with a warm lettuce. It was like being mauled by a dead sheep.
🙂
@Akubra
Aye, Agree.
https://www.brisbanetimes.com.au/politics/federal/not-impressed-bob-katter-threatens-morrison-government-with-high-court-referral-20181105-p50e2k.html
Katter wants his bit of dragon slaying worship. Following Phelps.
Al Pal @ #1502 Monday, November 5th, 2018 – 2:35 pm
Trump learned this trick from Australia.
“Katter wants his bit of dragon slaying worship. Following Phelps.”
Katter concerns about pork barreling?? ScoMo will deal with it by tossing a barrel at Katter. Problem solved.
C@tmomma @ #1509 Monday, November 5th, 2018 – 2:46 pm
You’ve got the wrong Keating quote. Here is his view of people like nath …
There has never been anyone as good as Keating at skewering people 🙂
Player One @ #1512 Monday, November 5th, 2018 – 1:53 pm
I had a similar thought comparing ‘boats’ with ‘caravan’.
Trump is not interested in telling people about boring stats. Not going to vote because of those probable fake news things. Heard it all before.
What about a good fight! Big anti immigration rev ups! Aren’t we great, come out and fight with me to win for our country. The other mob are liars and cheats and should be in jail! Come and help me put the boot in.
That’s what motivates Trump supporters. They will come out because he has convinced them of their superiority. Act now or the country will crash and burn!!! Vote for me you suckers.
The article about Katter was interesting too because it was about cross bench *joining* Labor, and a fun little game you could play.
https://www.brisbanetimes.com.au/politics/federal/not-impressed-bob-katter-threatens-morrison-government-with-high-court-referral-20181105-p50e2k.html
I’ll let PJK deal with this one:
To former ALP MP Jim McClelland: “That you Jim? Paul Keating here. Just because you swallowed a fucking dictionary when you were about 15 doesn’t give you the right to pour a bucket of shit over the rest of us.”
—————————————
One of my favourite PJK quotes!
🙂
The Chanticleer column in the AFR calls out Frydenberg’s maladministration in reappointing Byres as head of APRA
The early reappointment of Australian Prudential Regulatory Authority Wayne Byres sends a message that is both poorly timed and off-key, given the important questions that have been raised by the royal commission.
Commissioner Ken Hayne’s interim report was so incendiary that it’s easy to forget it only covered the first two-thirds of the commission’s hearings…
But given Hayne’s interim report already lashed APRA for never taking anyone to court, it seems likely his final report will have some pointed recommendations about APRA’s own conduct, and its enforcement approach.
Surely, given how the royal commission has shaken the public’s faith in financial institutions and regulators alike, it would have made sense to wait for Hayne’s final report before making any call on the future of Byres and indeed the structure, priorities and approach of regulatory bodies….
After all, Byres term doesn’t actually finish until July next year. Where’s the rush?…
https://www.afr.com/brand/chanticleer/josh-frydenberg-shouldve-waited-for-hayne-before-apras-wayne-byres-extension-20181104-h17hzd
Laocoon
I’ll go with incompetence needing to be doing something to show he’s doing something, rather than an impending election. Is Byers a mate?
Speaking of Keating, there’s a “Paul Keating Appreciation” site of FB. It’s a closed group and you can’t post anything critical of him lest you’ll be banned.
As much as I admire aspects of Keating lets not forget he was not perfect:
Then there was Paul Keating, who knocked the idea of gay marriage on the head when he was Prime Minister when he said ‘Two jokers and a cocker spaniel do not a family make’.
Billie
The Stock figure on the Balance Sheet of petroleum Companies was always interesting
On a par with the stock figure for an aquarium business – all those gold fish swimming around!
The remainder of the CA Board needs to step aside
As does this dysfunctional Federal Government
Stiglitz’s description is correct
Feudalism and hereditary privilege is a description he uses – the forces that had long divided society leading to the demands of the 1960’s
And undermining democracy by disenfranchisement and disempowerment
That there are lessons for Australia
And Trump – a misogynist, a racist, a bigot undermining economic equality and undermining the social contract
Late Riser
The Byers reappointment presumably had as a “benefit”, to piss off the ALP, as even Coorey covered:
By announcing his reappointment now, Treasurer Josh Frydenberg is locking in Mr Byres in the event Labor wins the federal election, which is due by mid-May at the latest. Labor was set to reappoint Mr Byres if it won but will be upset that the government has brought forward the announcement, as it did recently with the reappointment of ACCC boss Rod Sims….
Labor is already angry Phil Gaetjens, the former chief of staff to Scott Morrison, was recently appointed Treasury secretary and has threatened to revoke Mr Gaetjens’ tenure should it win the next election.
It is also demanding to be consulted on the appointment of the next Governor-General with Sir Peter Cosgrove’s replacement scheduled to be announced before the election.
https://www.afr.com/news/government-boosts-apra-funding-by-60m-reappoints-wayne-byres-for-five-years-20181103-h17gzp
EDIT – he looks like a career public servant type, from RBA
Player One @ #1514 Monday, November 5th, 2018 – 2:58 pm
It’s a good point you make there, P1. 😀
If victorious Rush’s counsel will probably seek indemnity costs against the Telegraph:
https://www.smh.com.au/national/telegraph-slammed-for-extraordinary-conduct-in-rush-trial-court-20181105-p50e0h.html
Steve Bracks’ appointment was ‘locked in’ as well. Didn’t stop Tony Abbott giving him the royal order of the boot in 2013.
I’m off to Surfers to try to get a glimpse of Dear Leader Morrison.
The Melbourne electorate now lining up to vote Greens for the fourth election in a row. Once you go Greens, you never go back. Grayndler, Wills, Melbourne Ports, Sydney. Next.
Que!?!
https://www.smh.com.au/national/telegraph-slammed-for-extraordinary-conduct-in-rush-trial-court-20181105-p50e0h.html
nath @ #1523 Monday, November 5th, 2018 – 3:19 pm
I thought it was ‘It’s going to take more than 2 queens and a corgi to convince me that is a family unit’ when it was being put to him (as treasurer) that gay couples should be considered a family unit for tax purposes. Could be wrong though.
Darc
says:
Monday, November 5, 2018 at 3:28 pm
nath @ #1523 Monday, November 5th, 2018 – 3:19 pm
As much as I admire aspects of Keating lets not forget he was not perfect:
Then there was Paul Keating, who knocked the idea of gay marriage on the head when he was Prime Minister when he said ‘Two jokers and a cocker spaniel do not a family make’.
I thought it was ‘It’s going to take more than 2 queens and a corgi to convince me that is a family unit’ when it was being put to him (as treasurer) that gay couples should be considered a family unit for tax purposes. Could be wrong though.
______________________
The cocker spaniel reference was always the way I have heard it described. It stuck in my head because my brother and his partner had a cocker spaniel at the time. We were eating weed infused chocolate cake at the time and having a good laugh at it.
Girl, 8, pulls a 1,500-year-old sword from a lake in Sweden
https://www.bbc.com/news/world-europe-45753455
Jeez they start em young in the scandihoovians.
The possibilities of what could be found by Canberra locals swimming are –well, who knows, worn out old useless articles, near death experiences (in the making). advertisements for face cream (sorry, the devil made me put that last in) and the like.
Toodles and au revoir. 😎
don
Thanks for that. I have noted a huge surge in interest and research in this period over the last twenty years or so, especially in Germany. Also those sort of unifying collaborations involving archeologists, geneticists, botanists, zoologists, paleometeorologists, geologists, sociologists and others.
Liberals once again outsourcing slave workers to foreign workers for their fruit pickings.
nath @ #1529 Monday, November 5th, 2018 – 3:27 pm
Jeez the Greens candidate did fantastically well in Wentworth! The word ‘back’ came into it alright. Backwards.
nath @ #1529 Monday, November 5th, 2018 – 2:27 pm
Why are the Greens targeting Albanese (Grayndler), Khalil (Wills), Burns (Melbourne Ports), and Plibersek (Sydney)?
Does that make her queen?
Sydney Airport…
Geoff Roberts, Lucy Turnbull’s deputy at the Greater Sydney Commission and responsible for implementing the westernmost component of the “three cities” vision for Sydney, has been pitching the Aerotropolis to Britain’s aerospace and defence companies, advanced manufacturers and agribusinesses…
He said the aerospace and defence sector was an obvious place to start, given that the industrial zone will be next to the airport and within shouting distance of military outposts such as the Richmond RAAF base, Holsworthy …
Hoslworthy is about 35km from the new airport and about 35km from Sydney CBD, so not sure about that point, and Richmond RAAF is some 40km from the new airport. Even by the standards of the current PM, that is some shouting distance.
https://www.afr.com/business/transport/aviation/western-sydney-aerotropolis-seeks-to-land-british-tenants-for-commercial-zone-20181031-h17d3z
A 4 day whistlestop tour of marginal Queensland electorates by ScuMo in his bus with the gurning visage of his boat race plastered on the side of it will not make much difference to the next Newspoll methinks.
Why are the Greens targeting Albanese (Grayndler), Khalil (Wills), Burns (Melbourne Ports), and Plibersek (Sydney)?
They like losing to superior ALP candidates?
says:
Monday, November 5, 2018 at 3:51 pm
nath @ #1529 Monday, November 5th, 2018 – 2:27 pm
The Melbourne electorate now lining up to vote Greens for the fourth election in a row. Once you go Greens, you never go back. Grayndler, Wills, Melbourne Ports, Sydney. Next.
Why are the Greens targeting Albanese (Grayndler), Khalil (Wills), Burns (Melbourne Ports), and Plibersek (Sydney)?
________________________________
Targeting? They are trying to democratically take these seats which hold huge numbers of Green voters. I don’t think Grayndler and Sydney will fall as long as Albanese and Plibersek are there. But once they are gone. Add Batman to that list. Higgins in the long run? Maybe Baby.
Interesting, now that he has come out of the closet as just another Greens’ agent provocateur on PB, that nath hasn’t included winning Batman in his list of electoral targets. 🙂
I just did.
Victoria @ #1267 Monday, November 5th, 2018 – 10:18 am
He was bashed to death by his best mate while said best mate was under the influence of some substance or other. Bloody awful. Makes me sad.
nath must have got told to add Batman. 🙂
“Does that make her queen?”
Finding an ancient sword in a lake? It would if it were a fantasy novel. Pulling swords out of rocks is also good.
nath,
Tanya, Anthony and Ged are relatively young. I think The Greens will be gone from parliament long before they are. 🙂
all your base are belong to us