Ipsos: 53-47 to Labor

The latest monthly Ipsos poll suggests a steadying for the Coalition after recent abysmal results, although it does so from an unusual set of primary vote numbers.

The latest Ipsos poll for the Fairfax papers is the Coalition’s least bad result of the Scott Morrison prime ministership so far, recording the Labor two-party lead at 53-47, an improvement on the 55-45 blowout the pollster recorded as Malcolm Turnbull’s prime ministership entered its final week (which was the one poll suggesting a significant weakening in Coalition voting intention in the period up to the spill). Ipsos’ primary vote numbers are still idiosyncratic, with an already over-inflated Greens gaining two points to 15%, while Labor slumps four to 31% and the Coalition gains one to 34%. No conventional leadership ratings that I can see yet, but ratings of the two leaders across a range of eleven attributes finds Morrison scoring better than Bill Shorten on every question other than “has the confidence of his/her party” and “has a firm grasp of social policy”. The poll was conducted Wednesday to Saturday from a sample of 1200; more detail presumably to follow.

UPDATE: As related by the Financial Review, the poll has Scott Morrison debuting with 46% approval and 36% disapproval, while Bill Shorten is up three on approval to 44% and down four on disapproval to 48%. Morrison holds a 47-37 lead as preferred prime minister, little different from Turnbull’s 48-36 lead in the last poll.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

2,765 comments on “Ipsos: 53-47 to Labor”

Comments Page 53 of 56
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  1. Say Shayne Neumann got a request for intervention on a visitor visa case detained at the airport on grounds of bona-fides. Say it came from a trusted source who gave a personal assurance that a genuine visit would occur, and visa conditions complied with. What would he have done?

  2. Confessions

    My brother-in-law is a Bolt devotee. Aged 70 plus, English background, reluctant to fly Middle eastern airlines because they are Muslim, climate change denier … doesn’t even think Buddy Franklin is “really” an Aboriginal.

    I suspect he is one of many.

    Very sad for my sister.

  4. ABC report on the email leaks and the Committee findings into the Potato.

    Emails show Peter Dutton’s role in intervening to grant visas to European au pairs

    A series of emails has revealed the scramble made by Peter Dutton’s office and senior bureaucrats to have two au pairs due to be deported released from Immigration detention.

    http://www.abc.net.au/news/2018-09-19/emails-show-role-peter-dutton-played-in-au-pair-visas/10282822

  5. It boggles the mind to think that if just three Liberal MPs had voted differently, stories like this one would be coming out right now about the Coalition’s brand new Prime Minister:

    A series of emails has revealed the scramble made by Peter Dutton’s office and senior bureaucrats to have two au pairs due to be deported released from Immigration detention.

    The Department of Home Affairs has released 169 pages of documents relating to Mr Dutton’s au pair interventions over the granting of tourist visas to the nannies.

    The redacted documents paint a picture of a bureaucracy and staffers trying to get approvals for the au pairs to stay in the country as a flurry of emails is exchanged between key players right up until the last minute.

    They reveal that in the case of the Italian au pair employed by Minister Dutton’s former Queensland police colleague, senior officials were called upon late into the evening to make sure the young woman did not spend the night in immigration detention.

    “This is urgent. The Minister requires this submission tonight (preferably in the next hour as he has an appointment at 7.30pm),” a senior department official notes.

    This was despite paperwork showing the Italian au pair received texts from an unknown person which indicated she was likely to breach the terms of her tourist visa.

    “From [redacted] on [redacted] ‘I don’t know if you are keen or not to earn some extra cash while you are here occasionally babysitting for friends?? Can put the word out for you if you are and a few friends would use you occasionally?? Locally?? Bit of cash to fund fun.”

    She responded: “Perfect! … and for baby sitting … Sure! Extra money for fun is always welcome!”

    After the visa was granted, the Minister’s office reportedly rang the family of Russell Keag to inform them that the woman would be released so they could pick her up at the airport.

    “The Minister’s office is contacting [redacted] hosts at the moment to advise them of this outcome.”

    http://www.abc.net.au/news/2018-09-19/emails-show-role-peter-dutton-played-in-au-pair-visas/10282822

  6. nath

    ‘the theory of gravity I think can now be considered as real.’

    I think that we can move forward from Newtonian physics being considered real, to quantum physics and relativity having been “proven”.

    The populations of Hiroshima, Nagasaki, Pripyat and Fukushima will vouch for it.

  7. nath: “The theory of gravity I think can now be considered as real.”

    Newton’s theory of gravity was completely overturned by Einstein’s theory of curvature of space. It’s wrong, end of story.

  8. rossmcg:

    My grandmother and my uncle (by marriage not blood) were both rabid 2GB listening Alan Jones lovers, and had Andrew Bolt had an audience in Sydney when they were alive, I’m sure they would’ve loved him too.

    But they’re both dead and I assume most of his readers/viewers are ageing. His audience must be miniscule and highly concentrated at the older end of the age spectrum. I can’t believe a Bolt/Kenny/Devine axis is profitable.

  9. A grovelling mail just received from Commbank:

    A better Commonwealth Bank starts now.

    Dear Citizen,

    My name is Matt Comyn, and as the new CEO of the Commonwealth Bank, I would like to update you on changes we are making to build a better bank.

    Over the last few months, the banking industry, including the Commonwealth Bank, has been rightly criticised for mistakes we’ve made. You may have seen examples of this in the news.

    I’m sorry for the mistakes we’ve made. My job now is to fix them. (and on it goes)

  10. alias @ #22286 Wednesday, September 19th, 2018 – 4:16 pm

    Jolyon Wagg,

    Are those the seven levels of purgatory? Just kidding.

    Yes Dawkins is an accomplished scientist. But he’s an evolutionary biologist. I’d be much more interested in his tedious dronings if he were, for example, a cosmologist or a particle physicist or at the cutting edge of string theory. These are the areas where the gulfs in human knowledge are so vast you can’t even see the other side. Thus, confident science-based assertions about the nature of reality are laughable. Read a recent book “The order of time” by Carlo Rovelli.

    Alias.

    Rovelli defers to the view that time is an emergent property of (human) biological perception, specifically as per Buenomano “Your Brain is a Time Machine (Norton, 2017. Dawkins, in person, has a droll sense of humour. Biology beats physics, and shits on theology. Laugh away.

    BTW I’m a 7 on Dawkins’ scale.

  11. Confessions, a Bolt/Kenny-Devine axis can be profitable for a media proprietor, if they can help foment an atmosphere which is conducive to getting the Treasury benches occupied by those who can make it profitable to said proprietor! [insert wink emoji here]

  12. meher baba @ #2608 Wednesday, September 19th, 2018 – 4:14 pm

    nath: “The theory of gravity I think can now be considered as real.”

    Newton’s theory of gravity was completely overturned by Einstein’s theory of curvature of space. It’s wrong, end of story.

    You better tell that to the Physics departments of major Universities.

    Relativity actually reinforces Newton, but it does show its limitation of only being applicable at low velocities. 🙂

  13. Peter Dutton might want to pencil this one into his diary for tomorrow.

    damon muller@damonism
    1h1 hour ago
    Tomorrow (20 Sept) Professor Anne Twomey is giving a Parliamentary Library lecture on section 44 and office of profit under the Crown from 12 to 1pm. If you’re in the building, come along. Anne is always great.

  14. Player One

    I liked the title of this book by a String Theory “Non Believer”. He reckoned it is so ‘bad’ he borrowed a Pauli quote and titled it. ‘Not Even Wrong’.

    An inter view with him

    Why String Theory Is Still Not Even Wrong

    At its best, physics is the most potent and precise of all scientific fields, and yet it surpasses even psychology in its capacity for bullshit. To keep physics honest, we need watchdogs like Peter Woit. He is renowned for asserting that string theory, which for decades has been the leading candidate for a unified theory of physics, is so flawed that it is “not even wrong.” That phrase (credited to Wolfgang Pauli)

    https://blogs.scientificamerican.com/cross-check/why-string-theory-is-still-not-even-wrong/

  15. Barney in Go Dau says:
    Wednesday, September 19, 2018 at 7:22 pm

    meher baba @ #2608 Wednesday, September 19th, 2018 – 4:14 pm

    nath: “The theory of gravity I think can now be considered as real.”

    Newton’s theory of gravity was completely overturned by Einstein’s theory of curvature of space. It’s wrong, end of story.

    You better tell that to the Physics departments of major Universities.

    Relativity actually reinforces Newton, but it does show its limitation of only being applicable at low velocities.
    __________________________________________
    I’m not even gonna comment son.

  16. BiGD: “You better tell that to the Physics departments of major Universities. Relativity actually reinforces Newton, but it does show its limitation of only being applicable at low velocities. ”

    Relativity does not reinforce Newton. It is true that relativity and Newton produce identical results for most situations. But there are situations in which Newton does not produce correct results (famously, movements of the planet Mercury).

    How can this be anything other than a comprehensive disproval of Newton? If a physics theory is not true all of the time, then it is wrong. That’s how physics works.

  18. string theory has the validity of its evidence. That is to say none. Nonetheless it is not without merit in the speculative traditions of science and it may lead to another set of theories or someday some evidence that can be put to scientific scrutiny.

  19. “They agree that upping the sentence for food tampering from 10 to 15 years won’t deter anyone”
    You’re right – I reckon KFC and McDonald’s will continue to operate.

  21. Re the Dutton au pair cases. IMO, the text messages to and from the Italian au pair look really bad for Dutton.

    I haven’t been following all the ins and outs, but – asking those who have – were the text messages the reason for Border Force officials refusing her entry? And, if so, was the content of those messages communicated to Dutton’s office before the decision was made to overturn the Border Force decisions?

    If so, in the words of Taylor Swift: “Oh, oh, trouble, trouble, trouble.”

  22. nath: “Meher equates Newton with gravity so as to play a little game of cup and dice.”

    How so? Are you suggesting that someone other than Newton produced the theory of gravity? If so, who?

  24. Yeah right.

    So this bloke has an Aboriginal father and a Papuan mother. He was born in PNG.

    Fast forward 35 years. His mum dies and he goes off the rails and commits some crimes. No-one is condoning them. Does 12 months in the slammer.

    Upon his release, a bot from Homeland Security has him arrested and shoved into a detention camp, ready to be deported as an alien person of bad character.

    Cross cut to an international airport near you. Illegal au pair girl who is being deported is snatched off the plane actually carrying her home by order of The Big Potato. He’s on a plane too, heading for the Middle East. It’s plane-to-plane diplomacy.

    The Potato lets her back into the country because she was about to start work for a mate. Can’t have little Nicholas and Jemima without a nanny, can we?

    Put it all together: an Australian indigenous man (how much more “Australian” can you get?) is about to be deported to Papua New guinea (a place he’s never been to, except for a few months in his infancy) is about to be deported as an alien of bad character.

    All calls to the minister are ignored. They can’t discuss it with the media because of “privacy” (tell that to The Potato as he condemns others and invades their privacy under parliamentary privilege). No questions will be answered.

    Clearly this indigenous man isn’t a party donor, or didn’t go to school or share a workplace with the minister.

    Welcome to ScoMo’s Australia (he’s the bloke who stopped the boats).

  25. meher baba says:
    Wednesday, September 19, 2018 at 7:31 pm

    nath: “Meher equates Newton with gravity so as to play a little game of cup and dice.”

    How so? Are you suggesting that someone other than Newton produced the theory of gravity? If so, who?
    ______________________
    Not so, but that does not mean that all of Newton’s theory completely and universally describe gravity as it exists.

  26. BB: “Welcome to ScoMo’s Australia (he’s the bloke who stopped the boats).”

    I’m far from being a fan of ScoMo, but it’s a bit rough to criticise him in relation to Dutton’s au pair visas.

    Dutton, like some street artists, would surely be entitled to sign these decisions off as “All my own work.”

  28. Great injustices are being done. Chaos reigns.

    Yet here (the place where all the political staffers come to get their talking points, allegedly) they’re still arguing about whether gravity exists.

    Which is the stupidity equivalent of claiming the Earth is flat.

    All this is in reponse to a new trolling poster who likes to cause a bit of trouble around the place. Everyone says he’s a dill. They say they’re going to ignore him. They say they have a life outside of PB, and even have some friends.

    Yet they spend page after page arguing the toss with this idiot while the world goes to shit.

    Go figure.

  31. nath: “Not so, but that does not mean that all of Newton’s theory completely and universally describe gravity as it exists.”

    The whole basis of physics (and all science) is that we can’t possibly hope to know for certain what “exists”. A theory will come along: eg, the Ptolemaic theory of the universe, and it will be accepted as explaining everything until it is replaced by another theory such as the Copernican theory. And then you have the Newtonian theory and then Einstein’s theory and perhaps eventually the “theory of everything” that Hawking was seeking and so on and so forth.

    But they are all theories. We will never know the truth 100% for certain, as it always remains possible that new evidence will discredit the existing accepted theory. And, when a theory is discredited by evidence, then that theory is effectively broken. Some philosophers of science have put forward the idea that Newton’s theory explains 95% of the universe and then you need Einstein’s theory to explain the remaining 5% (or whatever). But that seems like garbage to me. Einstein’s theory is universal, so – if you accept it – you don’t need Newton’s ideas at all.

    Anyway, it’s fun talking about these things. I haven’t thought about them much since I studied philosophy 40 years ago.

  33. Bushfire Bill says:
    Wednesday, September 19, 2018 at 7:39 pm

    Great injustices are being done. Chaos reigns.

    Yet here (the place where all the political staffers come to get their talking points, allegedly) they’re still arguing about whether gravity exists.
    __________________________
    congrats on getting all your posts on the Serena Williams’ cartoon published as two equal length volumes by Random House. Should be a ripper!

  35. Regarding Dutton, I think Labor can now use the “I” word for both he and the one seat majority government he props up. “I” could stand for illegitimate or inelligible, but either way it is apt.

    Abbott was merciless in calling Gillard’s government illegitimate, using this to undermine its credibility and justify destroying its achievements. Obviously this was due to the cloud over Craig Thomson.

    Now Dutton has been caught shamelessly lying to parliament more than once. As a minimum he should be booted from the Ministry. But ScumMo is too cowardly to do it. On s44 he should be referred to the HC for the same matter former non-Senator Day has already been booted for. But ScumMo is too cowardly to do it.

    ScumMo, tough on strawberries, soft on inelligible MPs.

    This government is about as legitimate as it is united.

  36. meher baba
    But they are all theories. We will never know the truth 100% for certain, as it always remains possible that new evidence will discredit the existing accepted theory. And, when a theory is discredited by evidence, then that theory is effectively broken.
    ________________________
    while the specifics might change the existence of gravity on earth has been proved every day for hundreds of years. There might be theories about it but its existence is beyond doubt. If you don’t think so head for the nearest bridge and prove me wrong!

  37. meher baba @ #2625 Wednesday, September 19th, 2018 – 5:38 pm

    BB: “Welcome to ScoMo’s Australia (he’s the bloke who stopped the boats).”

    I’m far from being a fan of ScoMo, but it’s a bit rough to criticise him in relation to Dutton’s au pair visas.

    Dutton, like some street artists, would surely be entitled to sign these decisions off as “All my own work.”

    I agree re tarring Morrison with Dutton’s ministerial decisions. However, it looks likely Morrison is going to come in for some uncomfortable questioning about au pairs and vested interests tomorrow.

    And BB is right that the case of Indigenous Australian when compared with the au pair interventions is a terrible look for Dutton.

  39. Prosecutors sat on evidence for three years before charging former spy Witness K and his lawyer Bernard Collaery, parliament has heard.

    Centre Alliance senator Rex Patrick has used privilege to question whether the case was deliberately delayed to avoid a diplomatic incident between Timor-Leste and Australia during recently completed talks on their maritime boundary, which split up lucrative oil and gas reserves.

    Witness K case: Labor pressured to promise to drop prosecution of spy and lawyer
    Patrick called on the commonwealth director of public prosecutions, Sarah McNaughton SC, to explain the “interesting timing” and questioned whether she and her predecessors held off “until the diplomacy was out of the way”.

    Witness K just needs to subpoena John Howard & raise the prospect of exposing his using ASIO to bolster US / Dutch oil interests

  40. nath: “while the specifics might change the existence of gravity on earth has been proved every day for hundreds of years. There might be theories about it but its existence is beyond doubt. If you don’t think so head for the nearest bridge and prove me wrong!”

    And, as I hurtle towards the ground, I will be 100% convinced that it was curvature of space, rather than the outmoded concept of gravity, that is responsible for my premature demise.

  41. BB:

    Yeah right.

    So this bloke has an Aboriginal father and a Papuan mother. He was born in PNG.

    Fast forward 35 years. His mum dies and he goes off the rails and commits some crimes. No-one is condoning them. Does 12 months in the slammer.

    Upon his release, a bot from Homeland Security has him arrested and shoved into a detention camp, ready to be deported as an alien person of bad character.

    Cross cut to an international airport near you. Illegal au pair girl who is being deported is snatched off the plane actually carrying her home by order of The Big Potato. He’s on a plane too, heading for the Middle East. It’s plane-to-plane diplomacy.

    The Potato lets her back into the country because she was about to start work for a mate. Can’t have little Nicholas and Jemima without a nanny, can we?

    Put it all together: an Australian indigenous man (how much more “Australian” can you get?) is about to be deported to Papua New guinea (a place he’s never been to, except for a few months in his infancy) is about to be deported as an alien of bad character.

    All calls to the minister are ignored. They can’t discuss it with the media because of “privacy” (tell that to The Potato as he condemns others and invades their privacy under parliamentary privilege). No questions will be answered.

    Clearly this indigenous man isn’t a party donor, or didn’t go to school or share a workplace with the minister.

    Welcome to ScoMo’s Australia (he’s the bloke who stopped the boats).

    Well put.

    The double standards on display here are just disgusting.

  42. meher baba @ #2617 Wednesday, September 19th, 2018 – 4:28 pm

    BiGD: “You better tell that to the Physics departments of major Universities. Relativity actually reinforces Newton, but it does show its limitation of only being applicable at low velocities. ”

    Relativity does not reinforce Newton. It is true that relativity and Newton produce identical results for most situations. But there are situations in which Newton does not produce correct results (famously, movements of the planet Mercury).

    How can this be anything other than a comprehensive disproval of Newton? If a physics theory is not true all of the time, then it is wrong. That’s how physics works.

    So Newtonian mechanics is no longer a taught or studied?

  44. BB is just upset that some other voices are getting a go on here. It has been his personal squawk page for so long he resents ‘new trolling posters’. Well buddy I’m here to stay, I’m taking over and moving into del boca vista LOCK STOCK AND BARREL!

  45. Who is this Nath personage of whom thou speaketh, oh thee who have not acquainted thou selfs with The Blockage? He/She/It is verily much quoted and so must be a powerful sage, or coriander.

  47. Compared to Vogons, e e doesn’t rate
    but had something to say about einstein god and elephants :

    Space being (don’t forget to remember) Curved
    (and that reminds me who said o yes Frost

    Something there is which isn’t fond of walls)

    an electromagnetic (now Ive lost
    the) Einstein expanded Newton’s law preserved
    conTinuum (but we read that beFore)

    of Course life being just a Reflex you
    know since Everything is Relative or

    to sum it All Up god being Dead (not to

    mention inTerred

    LONG LIVE that Upwardlooking
    Serene Illustrious and Beatific
    Lord of Creation, MAN:
    at a least crooking
    of Whose compassionate digit, earth’s most terrific

    quadruped swoons into billiardBalls

  48. Just like Trump, nothing this gov’t does shocks me anymore. I am almost at outrage-depletion, with a kind of ‘more evil same-same’ kind of powerlessness and weariness. I want to believe one day it will change and if I can hang on, maybe we can live in a decent society again, instead of this albatross of shame caused by reactionary rightwing fickwits who infest our polity and media.

  49. Player One says:
    Wednesday, September 19, 2018 at 7:09 pm
    Yabba @ #2600 Wednesday, September 19th, 2018 – 7:04 pm

    God is an idea. God(s) plainly exist in the minds of believers, and by all rational, objective observation, nowhere else.

    And a lot of scientists say the same about String Theory

    _____________________________

    No doubt. But I am given to understand that the mathematics is stunningly beautiful. And ridiculously difficult.

    I am reminded of that toast by Oxford mathematicians at their dinners:

    Here’s to pure mathematics – may it never be any use to anyone!

  50. ABC breaking News banner.

    BREAKING NEWS Former Malaysian prime minister, Najib Razak, has been arrested again in relation to the 1Malaysia Development Berhad scandal.

    🙂

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