The latest Ipsos poll for the Fairfax papers is the Coalition’s least bad result of the Scott Morrison prime ministership so far, recording the Labor two-party lead at 53-47, an improvement on the 55-45 blowout the pollster recorded as Malcolm Turnbull’s prime ministership entered its final week (which was the one poll suggesting a significant weakening in Coalition voting intention in the period up to the spill). Ipsos’ primary vote numbers are still idiosyncratic, with an already over-inflated Greens gaining two points to 15%, while Labor slumps four to 31% and the Coalition gains one to 34%. No conventional leadership ratings that I can see yet, but ratings of the two leaders across a range of eleven attributes finds Morrison scoring better than Bill Shorten on every question other than “has the confidence of his/her party” and “has a firm grasp of social policy”. The poll was conducted Wednesday to Saturday from a sample of 1200; more detail presumably to follow.
UPDATE: As related by the Financial Review, the poll has Scott Morrison debuting with 46% approval and 36% disapproval, while Bill Shorten is up three on approval to 44% and down four on disapproval to 48%. Morrison holds a 47-37 lead as preferred prime minister, little different from Turnbull’s 48-36 lead in the last poll.
31% primary. I don’t think so. They must have interviewed the 4 people living in Di Natali’s home.
Yippee, for Libs, now losing by a little bit less!
“… least bad result …”
I’ll bet Morrison is thanking his God for small mercies.
The Greens primary vote is pretty high at 15%, add 5% to the Labor vote it would be 36%.
I am not all that convinced that Labor will win more than 85-90 seats. Sure the Coalition’s primary vote will crash to record low levels, however it will mostly go to right-wing populist parties. The Senate contests should be interest, we could have Fraser Anning in the Senate for another six years.
From the previous thread:
doyley @ #1683 Sunday, September 16th, 2018 – 4:54 pm
Not even remotely reassured by that. They cannot do what New Zealand is doing because the deal will have already been signed into law by the time Labor gains office.
Wong’s claim to “seek to renegotiate certain aspects of it the deal” is the sort of promise you make when you know you’ve got no hope in succeeding. “Oh well, we sought to renegotiate the deal, but the other parties wouldn’t play ball. We tried, but can’t do anything about it, so never mind”
Same as the ISDS clause. Wong claims “we don’t support those (but we nevertheless voted for them in the treaty anyway). Then when we’re in office we’ll seek to renegotiate (that utterly useless and meaningless term again) them away”.
So, nope, none of those concerns have been dealt with. At all.
A promise to “seek to renegotiate” means absolutely fuck all.
Player One:
It’s great news for him. Instead of losing government in a historic landslide, he will instead lose government in an average, run-of-the-mill landslide.
Morrison’s crap in extremis.
May be Labor should subtedly lead with the fact that the world’s only six thousand year old; whereas, coal’s three million years…
@Asha Leu
However I predict the right of the Liberal party will be hit hard, high profile ones will be subjected to above average swings. I am predicting Michael Sukkar and Andrew Hastie to lose their seats, they will be subjected very likely to GetUp! campaigns which are quite effective. Look at the swing to Labor in Bass vs Braddon at the last election, over 10% versus 5%. One difference between both contests was that GetUp! campaigned in Bass. Peter Dutton’s seat of Dickson is already subject to a GetUp! campaign and he is definitely a goner.
Tristo:
Interestingly, William’s bias adjustments for BludgerTrack add 3.4% to Labor’s primary and remove 4.3% from the Greens on each Ipsos poll (plus an extra 1.8% to the Coalition), which I think would get things pretty close to the norm at the moment, if still on the lower end of recent results.
https://www.pollbludger.net/bludgertrack2019/methodology.htm?
Do Di Natalie’s au pairs get to vote?
Both Essential and NewSPoll had Greens on 10.
Ipsos has them 50% higher on 15.
Whoever is paying Ipsos needs to go to Consumer Affairs seeking to get their money back. Greens 15%!
This is possibly the most inaccurate polling in a eon.
Tristo @ #8 Sunday, September 16th, 2018 – 6:00 pm
You think Hastie will lose his seat? Seriously?
@Asha Leu
I would be surprised if the Greens get more than 12% of the vote in the election, 10% is more likely since their polling has been quite steady since the election. Although I am predicting between 10-15% for the various right-wing populist parties at the election. Hence why I believe Fraser Anning could be re-elected, the maiden speech has probably achieved it’s intend goal. Namely himself getting attention even if it is negative. Because they are enough people who like what he is saying to possibly get him re-elected.
Tristo:
Joining up with Katter was a pretty wise move on his part. On his own, he’d have had a lot of trouble competing with both One Nation and Katter for the right-wing Queensland protest vote, and running under the Conservatives banner would have been unlikely to help him much here. This gives him a decent chance of being re-elected, IMO.
@Asha Leu
Pauline Hanson term does not expire until 2022, plus Fraser Anning has a high profile now. These right-wing populist types will change their vote in the Senate from One Nation to Katter if they like Anning which is likely.
Also in Australia these right-wing populist parties have been unstable and personality driven. None has managed to become disciplined and well led, if one of them had they would be as big as the Greens. I would estimate such a party would get between 10-15% of the vote nationally.
Aunt Mavis @ #7 Sunday, September 16th, 2018 – 7:59 pm
I see where your are going wrong.
This is apparently God’s original April Fools’ Joke .
The coal is disguised to look very very old just like them there fossils planted to teach smart arses 😵 not to be smart arses. 😵
I could be wrong about this.
A very good night to all. 💤💤💤
Asha Leu @ #6 Sunday, September 16th, 2018 – 7:57 pm
It may also be great news for Australia. Because it will make it far less likely that Abbott can become LOTO again.
Confessions @ #12 Sunday, September 16th, 2018 – 8:05 pm
One can dream, surely … 🙂
Katter`s tilt at the racist vote may well prove disastrous for Katter, who needs ALP preferences to survive. He should not get them directed to him. I suspect the Greens will direct preferences away from him, but there are not all that many Green voters in Kennedy.
I keep coming back to the Morrison RC announcement as I find it a most perplexing decision.
It will be very interesting to see this week how Shorten and labor respond. They have a huge opportunity to occupy the space Morrison will leave open if he does not follow up the RC announcement with some strong initiatives very quickly but whether they decide to release their aged care policy in full now or wait and concentrate on the hypocrisy of Morrison claiming the high moral ground while cutting funding by $2 billion will be a interesting conundrum.
This has me really intrigued.
Cheers.
@Confessions
Yes I do, it is on a less than 7% margin and a GetUp! might well campaign in the electorate.
Plus Hastie is pretty right wing and voters who weren’t aware of that no do. The same goes for Sukkar who holds his electorate by a similar margin.
@Tom the first and best
It depends on how well the ALP does in Kennedy, Kennedy was won by Labor in 1990 and if Katter had not been the member it would have probably won it in 2007.
Having looked at the polling efforts in Sweden for the election a few weeks ago, there is some huge variations in the predicted results between the different companies. It is amazing how much different wording and method can have on the result.
IPSOS seem to be a little out of whack with the others. Are they trying to do an adjusted sample or something?
Tristo @ #8 Sunday, September 16th, 2018 – 6:00 pm
Canning (Hastie) is on a 6.79% margin so is unlikely to fall, despite being a targeted seat. Subject to a future redistribution, urbanisation will bring it into reach for Labor in two or three elections.
Mellissa Teede is Labor’s candidate and they’ve been in campaign mode for the last six months.
Dan Gulberry,
The only country with which Australia has ISDS provisions is Canada, the country that, with NZ, led the push to junk the bulk of the ISDS provisions from the original TPP in the renegotiated CPTPP.
Tristo:
Don Randall was pretty appalling yet Canning voters stuck by him. Even in the 2007 election he still won the seat by a healthy 2PP margin. Hastie should be safe this time around, future redistributions eroding away his happy clapper constituency notwithstanding.
@grimace
Nationally I am predicting a swing to Labor of about 3-4%, a GetUp! campaign would magnify any swing since they are a huge organisation. I have a feeling Liberal right-winger especially high profile ones will be especially targeted by the voters.
@Confessions
However the voters of Canning know he is a “right wing” nut, I say a post where somebody quoted somebody living in the Canning electorate saying ‘I did not know he was so right wing’.
[‘I could be wrong about this.’]
I doubt that, KayJay!
That said, I enjoy your colourful posts, with all those things, for want of a better noun.
People need to realize that Peter Dutton was only defeated for the Liberal leadership by five votes. Dutton as well as being hated by the left, is not liked by socially progressive Liberal voters. People I knew would have been disgusted by Dutton being Prime Minister. Anybody who supported his leadership bid could very well singled out for ‘special treatment’ by the voters. So a purge of the ‘right-wingers’ not the ‘moderates’ is on the cards.
JimmyD @ #25 Sunday, September 16th, 2018 – 8:20 pm
Not true. From https://dfat.gov.au/trade/investment/Pages/investor-state-dispute-settlement.aspx
Australia has ISDS provisions in six FTAs:
China–Australia Free Trade Agreement
Korea–Australia Free Trade Agreement
Australia–Chile Free Trade Agreement
Singapore–Australia Free Trade Agreement
Thailand–Australia Free Trade Agreement
ASEAN–Australia–New Zealand Free Trade Agreement
PlayerOne – I was referring specifically to the CPTPP.
The creation of Burt strengthen the liberal position in Canning. It Curtin , Tangey and Moore are really reliable liberal seats. In Victoria there is a Stronger underlying Alp vote. Deakin even through stronger for the libs is at much greater risk.
Rex,
Re the Ipsos PPM you so kindly posted.
All Morrison has to do is go into the federal election campaign claiming it is a contest between leaders, a battle between himself and Bill Shorten.
It worked so well for Turnbull in Longman.
Cheers.
@doyley
I don’t believe Morrison is going to campaign claiming it is a contest between two leaders.
Tristo,
It was a poor attempt at humour.
Perhaps I need to work on my delivery !
Cheers and a great night to you.
Tristo – I am starting to get the feeling that Morrison won’t be the one campaigning in the election. He’s got to December before the knives are back out.
[‘#Ipsos Poll Preferred PM: Morrison 47 (-1 compared to Turnbull) Shorten 37 (+1) #auspol— GhostWhoVotes (@GhostWhoVotes) September 16, 2018’]
Dear Rex, please assume the guise other than an being agent provocateur. There’s a good lad.
Someone may have mentioned this in the previous thread
According to the Guardian Kerryn Phelps is going to direct people to put the Libs last.
Will be a very interesting race. If she claws off a big enough chunk of disgruntled Libs who follow her instruction, but not quite enough to get into second for the run off (the other independents split a large enough minority to Labor to keep them ahead of her) then Labor can win
Longer term, it might be better for Labor that she wins thus denying the Libs a safe seat. A labor win will probably be just a sugar hit that at best will just hasten the death of a government that is pretty much already dead
@B.S. Fairman
I doubt it, the whole leadership dumpster fire was one big act of revenge against Malcolm Turnbull. The blood lust is now been quenched.
@Roger
I have a feeling Phelps not Tim Murray is going to end up in the two candidate contest with Sharma.
On the Wentworth front – there is likely to be over a dozen candidates, possibly even more than double that. The rate of informal voting goes up with the number of candidates (however it is not a linear relationship).
Andrew Probyn struggling with the numbers..
I mean, how on earth, Mr/Mrs Ipsos, can you get a 53-47 ALP advantage with Labor on 31% primary, a full seven pts below the Gillard rock bottom in 2010, when JG had to negotiate victory for 17 days on 38% primary? Your numbers look very odd.
Mike Carlton gives a character reference for Kerryn Phelps…
“Seeing you asked…Phelps disliked an SMH column I wrote some years ago. Out of the blue, she flung a torrent of personal abuse at me on Twitter. I find her vain, pompous, arrogant, self-important and self-serving. I told her to fuck off.”
‘Fess
You have probably already done a google map search for –
“sydney cbd accommodation map” which will show prices etc etc
2 Months ago, IPSOS was LNP 39, ALP 34, GRN 12, OTH 15
Post muppets, IPSOS has LNP 34, ALP 31, GRN 15, OTH 20
It looks like they are measuring the LNP dramas translating to voters moving away from both majors, LNP to OTH, ALP to GRN
I expect it will stabilize around here at 53-47, but others wont stay at 20, and i will need to see the next IPSOS before i accept that ALP is being marked down as well, we havent seen it with other pollsters AFAIK.
On the questions, Morrison went well with another pollster as well (Essential was it ?), it could be personally they are giving him the benefit of the doubt.
Might be the best chance they have to call an election now.
Apparently Carlton’s article was on Israel and Gaza, and Phelps accused him being anti Semite
“I find her vain, pompous, arrogant, self-important and self-serving. ”
I think most people who have met Phelps come to the same conclusion.
Old/Young Roger:
[‘According to the Guardian Kerryn Phelps is going to direct people to put the Libs last’]
Yes, and she has one foot in. She has presence, gravitas, exposure.
Yesterday I was out door knocking in one of the more conservative parts of metropolitan Pearce in good door knocking weather, clear blue skies and not too warm in the sun. We knocked on over 300 doors and had some very positive conversations with voters in our efforts to end Mr Porter’s tenure here.
” we havent seen it with other pollsters AFAIK.”
Most recent Newspoll has Labor on 42
Ipsos is broken. I wouldn’t wait for the next one to confirm anything other than it being broken!