We seem to be going into an ill-timed poll drought, so to keep things ticking over, here’s a post focusing on Senate preselection news. Please note there’s a post below this one on this Saturday’s Wagga Wagga by-election, which is developing into a fairly interesting contest.
• Queensland Labor’s state conference determined its Senate preselection on the weekend, having been hurried along by a national executive concerned the Liberal leadership crisis might bring on an early election. In doing so it bypassed a vote that was granted to the party membership under rule changes in 2013. The top position has gone to Nita Green, a former staffer to Senator Murray Watt and the favoured candidate of the CFMMEU and United Voice. The position is reserved to the Left, and is being vacated with the retirement of Claire Moore.
Green’s ascendancy has been contentious because party rules reserve the position for a regional representative and she lives in Brisbane, though she says she will move if elected. Supporters of rival Left candidate Tania Major, a Cairns-based indigenous youth advocate and protege of Cape York leader Noel Pearson, have further complained of being ambushed by a process for the factional ballot in which a three-day nominations period was followed immediately by the start of voting.
The second place on the ticket, which is reserved to the dominant Labor Forum sub-faction of the Right, has been retained by incumbent Chris Ketter. The cancellation of the party membership vote saw off any threat from rival nominee Pat O’Neill, former army major and candidate for Brisbane in 2016, although he was reportedly unlikely to win in any case. Number three goes to Frank Gilbert, a former Mackay councillor and candidate for Dawson in 2016, and a member of the Old Guard sub-faction of the Right.
• Matthew Denholm of The Australian reports Tasmanian Labor’s union establishment has again lined up against Lisa Singh for Senate preselection, undeterred by the success of a below-the-line voting campaign in overturning her demotion at the 2016 election. Singh will presumably dominate the party member component of the vote, but is reportedly unlikely to do any better than the loseable third position. This is because the dominant Left wants places for an incumbent, Carol Brown, and John Short, the Australian Manufacturing Workers Union official for whom Singh was relegated in 2016, while the Right is defending incumbent Catryna Bilyk.
• Tasmania’s Liberals are also conducting their Senate preselection vote on Saturday, and there are suggestions they too may repeat unhappy history from 2016. Richard Colbeck is again under pressure from conservative forces associated with Senator Eric Abetz, despite having almost matched Lisa Singh’s feat after being dumped to number five in 2016. He found his way back in the recount that followed Stephen Parry’s disqualification in November, and was promoted last week to the outer ministry, making him the only Tasmanian at that level of seniority. Brett Worthington at the ABC reports conservatives want the top position to go to Brett Whiteley, veteran of three winning and three losing campaigns at both federal and state level in Braddon, or alternatively to a woman. Further demotion beyond that would be particularly remarkable for Colbeck, as he is the only one of the four Tasmanian Liberal Senators facing re-election, the others having scored six-year terms. The other nominees for the preselection were detailed in an earlier instalment.
meher baba:
[‘It means he has a strong religious faith…’]
I have no problems whatsoever with that. Until the age of ten I too had faith, until I was forced by my parent to attend a Billy Graham crusade in Sydney, in the ’50. It has been all down hill for me ever since.
Pentacostals are, in my limited experience, more zealous than the older, established churches. My worry is that Scott Morrison will bring religion into the policy area. He’s already talked in loose term about the Ruddock Review, which if were to impose religious freedoms re. SSM, they’ll be widespread opposition,
bearing in mind that some 62% voted for it.
The wife of Wes Fang (NSW Upper House Nat) was spotted handing out for Joe McGirr in Wagga.
poroti
Good memory! My avatar was my dog Jimmy. Sadly he died a year ago, aged 15. I really should redo the avatar but extreme laziness……… 🙂
https://www.pollbludger.net/2018/09/03/senate-selections/comment-page-73/#comment-2899967
The ALP has started moving left because, apart from on the right, Australian opinion has been moving left for the last decade or so and income and wealth inequality is increasingly seen as a problem in need of fixing. The Greens have been part of the ALP moving to the left because they compete with the ALP for votes on its left. This is not just happening in Australia, it has happened in the UK (see Corbyn) and the USA (Sanders, Orcasio Cortez, etc). Income and wealth inequality cannot be dealt with without dealing with over-supply at the top end. Just like the pendulum of politics was swinging right from the late 1970s to the mid-2000s, it is now swinging leftward like it was from the 1930s to the 1970s.
The question is “are Wayne and MB one in the same?”
allan moyes:
I remember your dog avatar – it was a St Bernard or something?
allan moyes
Sorry to hear about the dog. That was the vague image of the avatar I remembered. My memory hasn’t dropped off the perch yet 🙂 Good to see you back in the lounge.
Tom the first and best says:
Sunday, September 9, 2018 at 1:12 pm
https://www.pollbludger.net/2018/09/03/senate-selections/comment-page-73/#comment-2899967
The ALP has started moving left because, apart from on the right, Australian opinion has been moving left for the last decade or so and income and wealth inequality is increasingly seen as a problem in need of fixing. The Greens have been part of the ALP moving to the left because they compete with the ALP for votes on its left.
I think it’s false to describe Labor as moving to the left. Egalitarian economic and social values have very deep roots for Labor. They are the defining reasons for Labor’s existence. This has not changed.
The Gs like to claim credit for Labor’s egalitarian commitments. This is just fraudulent. The unfortunate reality is that G splitting weakens the Labor plurality. Their grandstanding makes it more difficult for Labor to oppose the LNP and more difficult to govern from strength.
I know zero Hebrew except for the letter Aleph as in Aleph Zero (integers – infinite but countable)\
So I had put “mene mene tekel upharsin” into Google translate, and it decided it was Croatian, and gave the translation as
go get me a goof
Then it suggested maybe I meant upharšin (with that accent) instead, and gave me
I was runnin ‘by me
Neither seems to remotely translate “back” so maybe someone at Google is just having a bit of fun?
Confessions
No, Jimmy was a border collie/kelpie cross. An adorable dog!
meher baba:
[‘You must be new.’]
I go back a long way, back to the bad old days of PB After Dark – you know, Gusface, Frank, and others.
I agree with you re. Hawke and Keating, though that was a long time ago. Labor, under Shorten, have developed strong, innovative economic, social, tax policies, addressing the main problems of today.
https://cdn.australianlabor.com.au/documents/10-Year-Plan-for-Australias-Economy.pdf
As for Mal’s economic policies, they centred on the failed concept of Reaganomics. The fact is, wage growth in this country is almost static. And as for the corporate tax cuts, they’re as popular as Pol Pot.
poroti
Many thanks. Note my new avatar, you made me do it! 🙂
Scummo says
“Eli, Eli, lama sabachthani?
Psalms, chapter 22.
My Dog, my Dog, why have you forsaken me? Why are you so far from saving me, so far from the words of my groaning? O my Dog, I cry out by day, but you do not answer, by night, and am not silent (Psalm 22:1 – 2, NIV).”
No, Scummo speaks in tongues.
Wocka, Wocka, lalalalalalalala Wocka , Wocka, blurmph, sproongly, gays are evil, the blemished are doomed, but the obese are fine!
He also walks on water before breakfast. On his own pool!
I disagree. They will continue with it. Perhaps because it is a narrative they believe is a vote winner. Perhaps because they truly believe the ‘big end of town’ have lost the plot and it is a governments job to pull them in (rather than take their donations and do their bidding). Regulation and even nationalisation are tools to be used as a stick and in times like these, after decades of big business spending huge sums to corrupt both the democratic process and the market, they need their heads whacked with it. If not, then the stick is nothing more than old lettuce.
First, total reworking of donation laws. Make them the toughest and best practice around. Include rules regarding access to ministers as well. If a big business lobby group wants to meet with a minister it needs to be made public, real time and recorded either for immediate or delayed release.
Second, regulate for limiting the size of a company. Either by taxing the crap out of large ones or simply force them to break up on the sniff of anti-competitive behaviour. Better – do both.
Finally, if companies continue to screw over society for the benefit of the few – nationalise or introduce a government owned competitor.
I dont like the last 2 options mb anymore than you. But I believe many (most) large corporations and the underlying culture of how they operate have become a clear danger to the future well being of our society; rather than a device to create efficient markets and general prosperity.
Rocket Rocket says:
Sunday, September 9, 2018 at 1:21 pm
I know zero Hebrew except for the letter Aleph as in Aleph Zero (integers – infinite but countable)\
So I had put “mene mene tekel upharsin” into Google translate, and it decided it was Croatian, and gave the translation as
go get me a goof
Then it suggested maybe I meant upharšin (with that accent) instead, and gave me
I was runnin ‘by me
Neither seems to remotely translate “back” so maybe someone at Google is just having a bit of fun?
____________________
In a case like this, just put it into google search, and you will get chapter and verse (sic!)
The ‘mene mene’ one is particularly well known, since it was ‘untranslatable’ at the time, except for Daniel.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Belshazzar%27s_feast
But if it really was MENE, MENE, TEKEL, UPHARSIN, written in the ancient Hebrew script, then you would expect the wise men to be able to read it themselves, except that it was a very cryptic way of writing the message, with the vowels, as usual, needing to be added to the ancient Hebrew, and they could be added in various ways.
According to the story, Daniel was the only one who could make sense of it.
The whole story is a folktale, according to Wikipedia.
steve davis @ #3599 Sunday, September 9th, 2018 – 12:04 pm
noted…
Also, I skimmed but may have missed any predictions between midnight last night and 10am today.
Current PB “consensus” is
AVERAGE 55.4/44.6
MEDIAN 55/45
Respondents 39
I well remember the reaction of Labor supporters when the Greens first won the seat of Melbourne: declaring, in all seriousness, that Bandt should “refuse to accept” Liberal preferences (the implication presumably being that he should have immediately resigned the seat, and repeatedly done so until either winning without any Liberal preferences, or losing).
If Labor does indeed win a seat on the back of Ammosexual preferences, will they practice what they preach?
Rocket Rocket I was just reading the Wikipedia entry on the story and was fascinated to read the detail about the translation of the writing on the wall – it’s certainly not a literal translation so Google won’t be of any help. It’s more a matter of gematria – the mystical interpretation of Hebrew language
https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Belshazzar's_feast
54-46
lizzie:
[‘#WaggaWagga is in the middle of a massive drought caused largely by climate change. @LiberalAus selected a faux-Christian out-of-town religious extremist and #climatechange denier as their candidate. WTF did they expect to happen? #auspol #nswpol’]
Ouch! I think we’re going to see a lot more of this if the PM starts talking in tongues, for want of a more appropriate metaphor.
Don, snap
Just to clarify, as Boerwar has already pointed out “Eli, Eli, lama sabachthani?” is what an unknown author wrote, (in Greek, some time in the 2nd century), that the person now known as jesus christ, supposedly said while nailed to a crucifix. The person who wrote it was definitely not Matthew, one of the supposed apostles. None of the early christian writers knew anything about the new testament ‘gospels’, and none appeared in any collection of christian writings until late in the 2nd century AD. The supposed utterance by christ is, in fact, a direct quote from the Torah, which is included in the bible old testament as Psalms, chapter 22.
The drivers are:-
That we are seeing that the areas of the economy which have benefited from consumer leverage (so since 2000 and particularly the 2000 to 2008 period as RBA data identifies) suffer when consumers reduce their debt levels, including retail, media and house prices
The Right Wing agenda is to believe that austerity produces confidence and that confidence will produce growth But austerity undermines growth, worsening the governments fiscal position, or at least yielding less improvement than austerity advocates promise
We see the outcomes now with falling house prices, falling equity markets, a falling AUD, muted inflation, interest rates returning what they return on savings, recessionary wages growth and the raft of other data where the aggregation fuels public opinion because at least components are impacting on our lives
This is also the result of right wing economics driven by ideology and special interest, threatening the Global economy
We have had a Tory Government for 17 if the past 22 years, the latest 5 years cutting back expenditures in the midst of an ongoing crisis (sub prime lending and midst because of where the Cash Rate remains), a crisis bought on by free market idealogy prolonging the downturn (hence the Cash Rate not projected to increase above emergency settings in the foreseeable)
What we do need is greater equality, stronger regulation and a better balance between market and government
That is the outcome the public look for, not descriptions of religion and the other nonsense we are subjected to which is dog whistling to deflect from what I have described
Only a change of government can deliver the change required
Some may present that they have changed their political affiliation because Turnbull has been deposed
And that is a sad commentary and why we are in the mess we are in
Thanks, C@tmomma.
don, shiftaling
I do now vaguely remember this story, and I did used to wonder why no-one else could understand what was written – and I see that there is a complex answer.
So if Daniel had actually been Croatian (and from a few thousand years later!) and told Belshazzar it said “Go get me a goof” they would have really been struggling to understand.
Yabba
Why should he not quote from the Torah, which no doubt he would have studied?
Just as we might quote from another writer.
Yabba:
[‘No, Scummo speaks in tongues.
Wocka, Wocka, lalalalalalalala Wocka , Wocka, blurmph, sproongly, gays are evil, the blemished are doomed, but the obese are fine!’]
You have distinctive way with words.
Da. Ideology sux. Government policy must be horses for courses – based on a time and a place. I can see that deregulation, free markets, small governments can work. Depending on the time and place. Other times, laissez faire it just stupid and dangerous and morally reprehensible. For too long every single goddamn policy from this mob has been made with one eye toward benefactors and the other to ideology. They have made this bed. Sleep now in the fire? No way.
Frydenberg is definitely Gonzo.
yabba
We are looking at copyright infringement.
Someone has questions to answer.
C@tmomma:
“Another below the belt comment, mb. Well, Charlton, aka Aunt Mavis, has probably been here longer than you. ”
Excuse me, it is not my practice to make “below the belt” comments.
I had just assumed that Aunt Mavis, who is unknown to me, had missed all the long arguments that I have been in on PB about neg gearing, CGT, penalty rates, corporate tax cuts, etc, etc.
Simon² Katich®:
That’s diffiucult to gauge give a new PM normally has a honeymoon.
That said, I’m going for 55-45 – to Labor of course.
btw Observer – always appreciate your posts
Simon² Katich® @ #3671 Sunday, September 9th, 2018 – 1:38 pm
2nd prediction noted 😉
PB strategy says “Do it early & often.”
Observer, I too appreciate your posts!!
“Just a question. Do you think it okay if a Liberal Party candidate wins off the back of SFF Party preferences? Plus, what is the Labor Party to do, take their preferences and govern as a Labor Party, or not take their preferences and remain in Opposition, as impotent, and ‘principled’, as The Greens?”
If I were a candidate for any party in a seat like Wagga or Orange, I would actively campaign that I don’t want the preferences of the SFF party, don’t want to have anything to do with them, etc., etc.
Instead, quite disgracefully, the geniuses of NSW Labor HQ decided to preference the SFF in the Orange by-election.
Obviously, Labor has less control over the preferences they receive than over those they allocate. But I’m not seeing anything like as much distance between NSW Labor and the disgusting elephant-killers as I would consider appropriate.
itsthevibe:
[‘If Labor does indeed win a seat on the back of Ammosexual preferences, will they practice what they preach?’]
A win is a win. Just because the Shooters have apparently preferenced Labor above the Tories does not mean the ALP endorses their policies of shooting everything in the immediate area.
I can’t be bothered researching it, but Menzies won an election in the ’60s on the back of the communist vote, in, from memory, the seat of Moreton, Jim Killen, the Tory candidate.
I have others.
It is hard to be taken seriously around here.
Late Riser:
My Newspoll prediction is 54-46 to Labor.
Have often wondered what happened to Gusface from way back. I’ve been a regular PB fan since before the Rudd election and BK’s news is part of my daily ritual.
An enormous thank you, BK.
Yabba @ #3672 Sunday, September 9th, 2018 – 1:39 pm
Except that there are several non christian sources external to the bible to say that Jesus existed and was crucified…
Simon² Katich®
Hunt is Beaker ?
Quasar @ #3690 Sunday, September 9th, 2018 – 2:04 pm
He posts on twitter and seems very happy doing so.
The words of Mark Twain are most apropos at the present juncture. To quote his autobiography, which I commend to you all:
“In religion and politics people’s beliefs and convictions are in almost every case gotten at second-hand, and without examination, from “authorities” who have not themselves examined the questions at issue but have taken them at second-hand from other non-examiners, whose opinions about them were not worth a brass farthing.”
I would guarantee that Scomo and his preacher mates, have no idea of the actual history of their ‘holey babble’, and the fact that the actual authors of virtually all of it are completely unknown. In particular that the oldest known manuscripts of the gospels ‘according to’ the various supposed apostles, have no author’s names attached at all, and were all written in Greek dialects which did not exist at the time of ‘christ’. Note that all of the jews in Joseph of Nazareth’s time spoke Aramaic, and very few could read and write, virtually none in Greek. Also note that Nazareth, at the time that Joseph (jesus in aramaic) supposedly came from there was a burial ground on a hill, not a town.
meher baba:
[‘Instead, quite disgracefully, the geniuses of NSW Labor HQ decided to preference the SFF in the Orange by-election.’]
With the utmost respect, please step down from your soap-box (an example of the reformed Charlton; shite, I meant Aunt Mavis).
It’s the paramount goal of any party to attain government. If that means getting into bed with those they’ve got nothing in common with, sobeit – the ends justifying the means.
SFF are a very broad demographic. More of a protest vote option than something that identifies all wannabe elephant shooters.
poroti. Beaker is Turnbull IMO. Scared, lost, confused, and the way Beaker always says ‘me,me,me,me’. Abbott is Crazy Harry. Brandis Dr Bunsen.
Quasar
Gusface, the Finnegans, Frank, Space Kiddette and others are all active on twitter
Aunt Mavis: “It’s the paramount goal of any party to attain government. If that means getting into bed with those they’ve got nothing in common with, sobeit – the ends justifying the means.”
So you’d be ok with a Labor-PHON pact, including preference sharing, for the next Federal election?
Because I sure as hell wouldn’t be.
Qui cum canibus concumbunt cum pulicibus surgent