The latest quarterly Tasmanian state poll from EMRS finds the Hodgman Liberal goverment slumping back to where it was in late 2016 and throughout 2017, before the surge that delivered it commanding win at the election in March. The Liberal primary vote has crashed to 36%, down from 47% in the previous poll and 50.3% at the election, but most of the dividend is gained by “others”, up six to 14%. Labor is on 34%, compared with 30% in the previous poll and 32.6% at the election, and the Greens are on 16%, compared with 14% and 10.3%. The poll also finds Labor leader Rebecca White seizing a 46-38 lead as preferred premier, after trailing 47-41 last time. The poll was conducted Wednesday to Friday from a sample of 1000.
And the Liberals will out-campaign Labor again at the next election and win. *sigh*
“And the Liberals will out-campaign Labor again at the next election and win. *sigh*”…
May be, may be not. Let’s not forget that the last election was within the classic: “One, Two, OUT!” pattern in politics. Even Rudd-Gillard, in spite of all the Liberal hysteria and Murdoch propaganda, got their One-Two before the OUT! federally.
So, although it’s true that we are just too far away from the state election, it’s better to be where the Tasmanian ALP is now than where it was on election night…. 🙂
The last election was about poker machines, poker machine ownership, poker machine venue ownership, political donations by poker machine owners, donation compliant Libs and media blitz by vested interests. The poll collaspse for ths Libs is an indication that the voters are finally aware of the complicity of the Libs and business.
Greens up +6% to 16% since the election is massive! The last Tas election wasn’t great for them but it seems they’re bouncing back in a big way.
Wow
@Firefox. Particularly in Tasmania, the Greens consistently score significantly higher results in polls than on election day. For example the last poll tracker before the state election had the Greens on 12.9%, although they only ended up getting 10% on the day. The current result isn’t at all out of the ordinary.
http://kevinbonham.blogspot.com/2018/09/emrs-what-goes-up-must-come-down.html
EMRS: What Goes Up, Must Come Down
Re the Greens, AngoraFish is correct, EMRS persistently has them much too high. That 16 is 13 if they’re lucky. My own poll aggregation was heavily sedated because of this history and I had them on 10.5 going into the election.
To show how swimmingly the Greens are going here, their defeated MP Andrea Dawkins has quit the party to try to get her old council seat back as an independent.
Even if your conservative assessment of the Tas Greens is correct, that still means they would have gained +3% since the election. That’s great news for them and shows they are on the way back up. Even if the poll is a whooping 4% off and they’re at 12% that’s still a good result and indicates they’re gaining ground. You can spin the numbers any way you wish, the fact is that the Greens would be very happy with that poll.
Once over a certain point the Greens vote, which the Greens vote has been over in Tasmania for some time, seems to suffer under a Liberal Government.
That’s a bad poll for Greens. With Rebecca White personally popular and little brand diffirentiation Greens are suffering from relevance depravation.
In the last by-election I remember Kevin saying they just managed to get their deposit back by a handful of votes. Doesn’t sound like a party doing well.
One of the delights of Hare-Clark is that the 50.3% Lib primary vote translated to 13/25 seats. With 3.5 years to the next election, the main interest from this poll is how quickly the Tas Libs vote has collapsed.
Amazing what happens when you stop having unprecedented amounts of money dumped into your party by people threatened by your opponent’s platform.
I’m just so damn disappointed that people fell for it.
The Greens aren’t doing well down here. They must be very short of money: in the last election, their campaigning was almost invisible. I think KB’s suggestion of something close to 10 per cent would be close to the mark, and it could be getting worse by the week.
I think the Tassie Libs are probably suffering a bit by association with the Federal Libs: particularly the always divisive figure of Eric Abetz. My sense was always that Turnbull was pretty popular down here, particularly in Hobart, where the average Liberal voter tends to be a bit more moderate in their views than are the people who control the Tasmanian branch of the party.
Bec White is an effective leader for Labor, but I’m not convinced that they are certainties for the next state election. The Hodgman Government has been reasonably good at projecting an image of trying to be efficient and get on with things. Now that both sides seem to have largely lost interest in having a fight on the forestry issue, it’s a bit unclear what policies either major party really stands for at the state level. Labor tried something with the pokies, but it didn’t really work. It’s not clear what they can run with next time. And if, as seems likely, Shorten will be PM at the time of the next Tassie election, that’s going to be rather helpful for Hodgman.
It’s a pity, because White personally has a lot of ability.
Yes in the Braddon by-election the Greens got their deposit back and public funding with six votes to spare, and only did so because they drew #1 on the ballot paper thereby getting the donkey vote. Had they not drawn #1 they would have got below 4%. Competition from Craig Garland didn’t help them but the key point is that their vote here is soft and just about any left of centre competition hurts them. Their best hope is that Labor rips up its pokies policy or has a big leadership fight, but plenty of people who used to support the Tasmanian Greens now think they are too extreme, negative and prone to conspiracy theories.
12-13% would not be a good vote for them and might not even get them a seat back. Tasmania is their political birthplace where they got 17.1% in 1989 (as Green Independents), 18.1% in 2002 and 21.6% in 2010.
Poll Bludger Federal Election Seat Count Sweep
Welcome to the Poll Bludger Federal Election Seat Count Sweep. If you would like to join email your prediction for the number of seats that Labor will win to sjapplin@hotmail.com. Your email will be deleted after your prediction is recorded with my apologies in advance to anyone inadvertently caught by the spam filter. I’ll try to keep track of any predictions posted in the thread if you’d prefer not to email me, without a guarantee it’ll be included.
My apologies for the much delayed update, work has been much busier than normal the last couple of days, I haven’t even been able to slack off reading posts on PB.
The rules of the competition are:
• Your seat count prediction must be an integer
• All forms of cheating and capitalising on insider knowledge are encouraged
• Your first prediction is final
The prize is gloating rights.
Name__________Labor
Whisper__________79
Steve777__________80
Jenauthor__________81
SandgroperWA__________82
Player One__________83
Beverly Haris__________84
Edward Boyce__________84
Max__________84
C@tmomma__________84
Lizzie__________84
JPH__________85
Imacca__________86
J341893__________86
Outside Left__________86
Confessions__________87
A Different Michael__________87
Kambah Mick__________87
The Silver Bodgie__________87
A R__________88
JimmyD__________88
Left E__________89
John Reidy__________89
BK__________89
Sproket__________88
A R__________88
Mari__________89
Quasar__________89
Harry “Snapper” Organs__________90
Onebobsworth__________90
Poroti__________91
Bilko__________92
Pica__________92
Socrates__________93
Yaba__________94
Jack Aranda__________94
Briefly__________94
Matt31__________94
Don__________95
Adrian__________96
Dan Gulberry__________98
Guytar__________100
Puffytmd__________100
Grimace__________105
Antonbruckner11__________106
I mildly agree with you Kevin but you never used to be so negatively predisposed toward The Greens in your commentary – you use to be close to apolitical and a little more polite. I hope you have not been unduly influenced by the right-wing media outlets in Tasmania ( radio and print ) who appear to have adopted you as their go-to man. BTW When Brian Carlton strongly implied the poll was released to coincide with the upcoming Labor conference you should have set that fool right.
KB: “…plenty of people who used to support the Tasmanian Greens now think they are too extreme, negative and prone to conspiracy theories.”
My impression is that the left-leaning elements of the mainland Greens, particularly in NSW, have turned off quite a few long-term Green voters in Tassie. Also, a lot of the product differentiation between Labor and the Greens has disappeared: not only, as you say, Labor’s pokies policy, but the retirement of Bryan Green and, further back, the demise of the pulp mill and other pro-forestry initiatives backed by Labor. It’s been a slow but steady decline since 2010.
The rather unappealing candidates that the Greens mostly put forward these days haven’t helped much either.
Matt, I have always been negatively disposed to the way in which some Greens supporters continually talk up their polling and likely results in a way that is out of all connection to electoral reality at the time. I have long been negatively disposed towards the kind of Green exceptionalism that underlines it – the inherent idea that Greens are a superior class of political beings compared to those who associate with the big parties (and hence on an inexorable path to government), when in fact they’re just another party facing a lot of similar problems and internal issues to the big ones, and sometimes facing them poorly. To show that this is not an outcome of my recent fame or media involvements here’s one I prepared earlier, after the 2004 federal election:
http://cdn-src.tasmaniantimes.com.s3.amazonaws.com/archive/jurassic/bonhamgreen.html
As for interviews in general I answer questions that are put to me and don’t always have time to address everything that might be said in a preamble. And it’s not just the right-wing outlets who have adopted me here, it’s all of them (except Tasmanian Times of course). Though I haven’t been on ABC mornings nearly as much as I used to since I made it clear to one of the producers that I didn’t like being woken up very early in the morning while on summer holidays. One of the good things about Tas Talks is they nearly always contact me the night before.
@ Grimace
Cheers Grim, the median of the tally so far is 89. I don’t think the median and mode are too far apart. At 44 votes, only a small sample statistically,but for the BT, very interesting. William, what are your thoughts?
@Kevin
Different Matt to the previous post BTW
“the inherent idea that Greens are a superior class of political beings compared to those who associate with the big parties (and hence on an inexorable path to government),” what an arrogant comment a typical tow the party line hack that you are….
Your comments are a disgrace, “negatively disposed to the way in which some Greens supporters continually talk up their polling and likely results in a way that is out of all connection to electoral reality at the time” WTF i see this here and everywhere, by ALL political colours.
Why don’t you grow a pair and actually debate policy rather than hide behind your pathetic ideology when making comments.
“To show that this is not an outcome of my recent fame or media involvements..”and “though I haven’t been on ABC mornings nearly as much as I used to since I made it clear to one of the producers that I didn’t like being woken up very early in the morning while on summer holidays.” OMG power trip much? don’t think anyone has actually heard of you outside the state, and you only get asked here because of limited other options.
A little harsh matt… I am in fact the Matt who occasionally asks Kevin some questions on his blog, using the lower case m there.
Hey lower case matt:
“what an arrogant comment a typical tow the party line hack that you are….” Which party line? If you can provide any party whose line I have ever reliably towed in my life that will be news to me! My voting record and even my vote in specific elections is all over the place. I voted 1 and 2 for Greens candidates at this year’s state election.
“Why don’t you grow a pair and actually debate policy rather than hide behind your pathetic ideology when making comments.” What “pathetic ideology” is that? I don’t think you’ve got a clue! In any case, this isn’t the thread for a policy debate. It’s a discussion about polling, electoral performance and causes. But if you want me to debate policy I would be happy to debate the issue of the Tasmanian Greens’ disturbing flirtation with verging-on-Hansonite Sinophobia, which I omitted from my previous post!
“don’t think anyone has actually heard of you outside the state” Bzzt. I have been on national ABC radio about four times this year already. And my site these days actually tends to get more visits from NSW and Vic than Tas.
“power trip much” – How would you like it if you were sleeping in on holidays interstate at 6:30 am and a radio presenter rang you up asking you to do an interview for which you would receive no payment, with no notice?
Now since you talk about “growing a pair”, could you please provide me with your full name instead of hiding behind effective anonymity? Ta.
Hey Will, a little discipline needs to be administered here.
“Hey Will, a little discipline needs to be administered here.”
Nah, I thought Kevin was quite restrained in his answers, matt is just feeling and expressing pain of a party member whose party is seeking relevance and votes.
Greens need a good review and look at themselves as to why it is happening.
What do they stand for nowadays?
No pokies would be a good policy that labor has the running with.
unappealing candidates is like what happened with the democrats in their decline after Meg.
Hodgman a shoo-in next time.
Tasmanians interested in the Hobart city council election?
Support this person:
https://www.facebook.com/McCallumForHobart/
[Hodgman a shoo-in next time.]
FUCK OFF!