We seem to be going into an ill-timed poll drought, so to keep things ticking over, here’s a post focusing on Senate preselection news. Please note there’s a post below this one on this Saturday’s Wagga Wagga by-election, which is developing into a fairly interesting contest.
• Queensland Labor’s state conference determined its Senate preselection on the weekend, having been hurried along by a national executive concerned the Liberal leadership crisis might bring on an early election. In doing so it bypassed a vote that was granted to the party membership under rule changes in 2013. The top position has gone to Nita Green, a former staffer to Senator Murray Watt and the favoured candidate of the CFMMEU and United Voice. The position is reserved to the Left, and is being vacated with the retirement of Claire Moore.
Green’s ascendancy has been contentious because party rules reserve the position for a regional representative and she lives in Brisbane, though she says she will move if elected. Supporters of rival Left candidate Tania Major, a Cairns-based indigenous youth advocate and protege of Cape York leader Noel Pearson, have further complained of being ambushed by a process for the factional ballot in which a three-day nominations period was followed immediately by the start of voting.
The second place on the ticket, which is reserved to the dominant Labor Forum sub-faction of the Right, has been retained by incumbent Chris Ketter. The cancellation of the party membership vote saw off any threat from rival nominee Pat O’Neill, former army major and candidate for Brisbane in 2016, although he was reportedly unlikely to win in any case. Number three goes to Frank Gilbert, a former Mackay councillor and candidate for Dawson in 2016, and a member of the Old Guard sub-faction of the Right.
• Matthew Denholm of The Australian reports Tasmanian Labor’s union establishment has again lined up against Lisa Singh for Senate preselection, undeterred by the success of a below-the-line voting campaign in overturning her demotion at the 2016 election. Singh will presumably dominate the party member component of the vote, but is reportedly unlikely to do any better than the loseable third position. This is because the dominant Left wants places for an incumbent, Carol Brown, and John Short, the Australian Manufacturing Workers Union official for whom Singh was relegated in 2016, while the Right is defending incumbent Catryna Bilyk.
• Tasmania’s Liberals are also conducting their Senate preselection vote on Saturday, and there are suggestions they too may repeat unhappy history from 2016. Richard Colbeck is again under pressure from conservative forces associated with Senator Eric Abetz, despite having almost matched Lisa Singh’s feat after being dumped to number five in 2016. He found his way back in the recount that followed Stephen Parry’s disqualification in November, and was promoted last week to the outer ministry, making him the only Tasmanian at that level of seniority. Brett Worthington at the ABC reports conservatives want the top position to go to Brett Whiteley, veteran of three winning and three losing campaigns at both federal and state level in Braddon, or alternatively to a woman. Further demotion beyond that would be particularly remarkable for Colbeck, as he is the only one of the four Tasmanian Liberal Senators facing re-election, the others having scored six-year terms. The other nominees for the preselection were detailed in an earlier instalment.
One of Peter FitzSimon’s tweets of the week:
“BOLT: I want to reassure you. None of us on Sky are far Right. The only party I’ve worked for is the Labor party. Twice. The truth is that the ABC is so far Left that almost anything now is far right.” – @TheBoltReport
You’d be hard pressed to make this stuff up. Nearly all of the hosts and panelists on Sky News After Dark are rabid right-wingers, including the Bolter, Credlin, Jones, Murray, Bishop, Dean, Cameron, and many, many more.
guytaur says:
Saturday, September 8, 2018 at 6:45 pm
Andrew Earlwood.
The facts cannot be changed. Much as you hate it. The Blair government was a neoliberal government. See all the links posted by many here.
See the article I posted by the Labour MP about Grenfell Tower.
See the definition of Neo Liberal from Wikipedia.
Squealing about neo-liberalism is just about the most intellectually lazy thing going round. It’s rivalled only by Lib hate for unions. Voters also get this. Not one voter in a hundred could care less about this trope. It is a comfort toy used by the pseudo-left….and nothing more.
BiGD
Plus safe rooms for abused Liberal women MPs and Liberal women MP only hallways.
Boerwar @ #3594 Sunday, September 9th, 2018 – 9:06 am
Which one was the impregnator? 🙂
Joseph, of course.
Gladys Berejiklian concedes defeat in Wagga. And Antony Green thinks Labor’s got a good chance of taking it, probably on the preferences of the Shooter’s Party.
BK: “If Morrison genuinely believes all that Pentecostal stuff what does it say about him?”
It means he has a strong religious faith, for which I suspect I have a bit more respect than you or many other posters on PB. (I would describe myself as religious, but – as my nom de guerre would indicate – not Christian.)
The good side of religious faith is a desire on the part of its adherent to make something more of themselves and their lives than to wallow an endless cycle of sensual gratification. Of course it’s not the only way of pursuing this goal: others do so through science, politics, charity, art, music, literature, etc., etc. But, at its best, religion can provide an excellent avenue for this ambition.
Of course, at its worst, religion instills in its followers a cultish obedience to the archaic decrees of living and dead patriarchs (or occasionally, but rarely, matriarchs).
I have known a number of adherents to what you might call pentacostal or “born again” Christianity. And it’s clear to me that this faith has elements of both the good and bad aspects of religion as a whole. With its emphasis on a personal god and personal salvation, it’s often not as cultish as some other faiths (even some other forms of Christianity). But it does have a tendency to promote the archaic decrees of patriarchs: eg, creationism, homophobia, etc. Although it doesn’t have to be like this: there are some pentacostal preachers around who believe in evolution, climate change, LGBTIQA rights, etc (precious few, but more than a decade or so ago).
So I’m not going to judge ScoMo harshly simply because of his faith. Unfortunately for him, I don’t think I’m going to get much time to judge him on any other basis because, as I posted, I believe God’s message to him and his party is “mene mene tekel upharsin” (which I understand, approximately, “you have been judged and found wanting, your kingdom is coming to an end, and you will be split between two rulers”).
BK says:
Just a bit more than if he does not genuinely believe it.
Ven
“Mene mene tekel upharsin” etc is basically “You have been weighed in the balance and found wanting”. Belshazzar was Nebuchadnezzar’s son and king of Babylon. The message which appears in writing on the wall during a great feast was from God telling him that because of his arrogance he would lose his kingdom.
Here endeth the lesson. 🙂
Aunt Mavis: “Antony Green thinks Labor’s got a good chance of taking it, probably on the preferences of the Shooter’s Party.”
That thought must bring a warm glow of pride to the hearts of Labor supporters everywhere. An achievement to put alongside the triumph of the elephant-killers in Orange due to Labor preferences.
MB, you are not going to judge Morrison’s nonsense harshly because he leads your party of choice.
Simple as that.
Newspoll prediction, reality LNP 40 ALP 60, fudged published poll LNP 45 ALP 55. From a non Wagga, Dave, although I did live there once 🙂
‘Barney in Go Dau says:
Sunday, September 9, 2018 at 12:09 pm
Boerwar @ #3594 Sunday, September 9th, 2018 – 9:06 am
BiGD
I am not an expert in these matters but when you have three Gods, a Son, a Father and a Holy Spirit in One God plus a Virgin as mother of one of the Three, you might be looking at schizophrenia.
Which one was the impregnator?’
A virgin birth is a virgin birth. My theory is that Joeseph was gay and that Mary was his straight cover.
She was ‘Immaculate’ and the conception was the ‘Immaculate Conception’.
This created a theological problem, viz: how to dispose of her body when she died. Could the Mother of God and thence of the Holy Ghost and God the Father be expected to decompose like other mortals?
This was fixed by having her ‘assumed’ bodily up into Heaven. Hence the Feast of Assumption. Exactly where the everlasting body of Mary is, is a matter of some theological interest.
A related theological issue, when holy relics were hot on the market was that since Jesus arose from the dead and ascended into Heaven (where He was already because he was God all the time) there were no fingernails or bones or the like left lying around to sell. If someone tried to sell you Christ’s Holy Knuckle you just had to know you were in the presence of someone like Trump.
This is why pieces of the Holy Cross were hot and the Crown of Thorns was a humdinger. It stood to reason that Jesus did not take these with him when he Ascended into Heaven.
Some French King paid the equivalent of the annual GDP of France for his copy of the Crown of Thorns which is still exposed to the Faithful on the last Friday of every month in Notre Dame where yours truly narrowly avoided a miracle of his own.
One good thing about having a very religious Mother was that she was easily deluded by my brothers and me! 🙂
allan
Thank you. My Hebrew is not what it was. And it was practically nothing.
mene mene tekel upharsin
…a bit of foretelling….very apt…
Boerwar @ #3603 Sunday, September 9th, 2018 – 10:08 am
The Greens leader in Victoria reportedly has a men-only room.
#birdsofafeather
meher baba @ #3607 Sunday, September 9th, 2018 – 12:17 pm
Good solid post with which I broadly agree.
Sure the mockers on PB and elsewhere will have their shallow fun. However, I doubt ScoMo was ever targeting them as potential voters in the first place.
Morrison hasn’t got much to sell. But, if voters/traditional Lib supporters and the like see he at least has a credible family values philosophy then he might be able to save some of the LNP furniture come the election.
I reckon the lack of coherent, believable policy is a far more electorally dangerous to the Morrison Government.
I live in Wagga.
Much as I would love the Labor candidate to get over the line (I voted for him) I’m not sure, given the conservative outlook of this electorate both locally and federally that he would hold it at the not too distant State election. There is not much time to “bed in”, so to speak.
The same may be true for Joe McGirr but from purely anecdotal evidence Liberal would likely be happier to vote for an independent over Labor if there is no comparable conservative candidate on the ballot paper. I hope I’m wrong.
It will be the same at the federal election. The Deputy PM would have to be found strangling puppies whilst doing unspeakable things with choir boys (or vice versa) to be defeated.
allan moyes says:
Sunday, September 9, 2018 at 12:21 pm
Ven
“Mene mene tekel upharsin” etc is basically “You have been weighed in the balance and found wanting”. Belshazzar was Nebuchadnezzar’s son and king of Babylon. The message which appears in writing on the wall during a great feast was from God telling him that because of his arrogance he would lose his kingdom.
Here endeth the lesson.
Yet another injunction against arrogance…..one the LNP have yet to take to heart. They think they’re the smart ones and the rest of us are idiots.
Fulvio Sammut: “MB, you are not going to judge Morrison’s nonsense harshly because he leads your party of choice.”
They’re not my party of choice. I’ve voted for them occasionally (but for Labor far more often). And – notwithstanding my problems with Labor’s economic and fiscal policies – the Libs certainly aren’t my preferred party now MT is gone. They thoroughly deserve a long spell in Opposition until they work out – as Labor had to do in the 1950s and 1960s – that Australians strongly prefer moderate, centrist political leaders and platforms.
Josh Frydenberg has morphed into an automaton, judging by his appearance on the Insiders.
Meanwhile, Scott Morrison’s seen at a conference prancing, working his mic as though he was delivering a sermon to the converted at the Horizon Church, in Sutherland. I’m unsure as to whether the “new generation” leadership team is going to turn out well -any hint of religiosity turning most off.
Boerwar
Even more important a relic than the Holy Hand Grenade of Antioch is…………………
http://www.slate.com/articles/life/faithbased/2006/12/fore_shame.html
allan moyes @ #3618 Sunday, September 9th, 2018 – 12:30 pm
There is some speculation that McGirr is a surrogate for the Nats and will probably run for them at the next election. Any thoughts?
meher baba:
[‘…notwithstanding my problems with Labor’s economic and fiscal policies…’]
Care to elucidate?
allan moyes:
Good to see you again, I hope you’ve been well.
RWNJs still delusional, they think to solve their problems is to move further to the right, less transparency, ignore systemic issues such as bullying and misogyny, more union and racialised bashing and take credit for dropping unfair, unpopular and unproductive measures they have been arguing about for five years (until after the next election, when they can resume arguing for these again and once Labor takes power will be in budget emergency conditions again).
p
The foreskin, having been cut off early in the piece, would NOT have ascended into Heaven with Jesus. It was therefore a trafficable commodity.
GG
McGirr has already said before the election he will NOT sit with the Liberal government. I doubt he is a National surrogate.
The Libs have a women’s target, but like their emissions reduction target it’s just a motherhood statement with no actual measures in place to get there.
meher baba:
[‘That thought must bring a warm glow of pride to the hearts of Labor supporters everywhere. An achievement to put alongside the triumph of the elephant-killers in Orange due to Labor preferences.’]
Although it would be good to see Labor win Wagga, I think Antony’s being brave with his prediction. It’s more likely that McGirr will take it; but I’m no expert, respecting Green’s extensive psephological knowledge.
‘Boerwar says:
Sunday, September 9, 2018 at 12:38 pm
p
The foreskin, having been cut off early in the piece, would NOT have ascended into Heaven with Jesus. It was therefore a trafficable commodity.’
There is a related theological issue. The foreskin, being part of Jesus was also automatically part of God. When it was cut off, it ceased being a (connected) part of Jesus. But did it also cease being part of God? And if Jesus had to ascend into Heaven and the Virgin Mary had to be assumed into Heaven in order to square the corporeal square with the divine circle, why not also the foreskin when it was first cut off?
Socrates @ #3628 Sunday, September 9th, 2018 – 12:40 pm
The Nats were apparently peeved they weren’t given the OK to run because they felt they had a better chance to win. I’ve read elsewhere that the Nats were providing support to the McGirr. Certainly, given a 30% swing, dissociating oneself from the sinking Libs would be a smart move for survival. but, such antipathy can change when the circumstances change.
If McGirr or Labor win then the Nats have the opprtunity to run him as a credible candidate with traditional support either way.
I was interested to hear what Allan, a local, thought was afoot.
There’s no doubt at all that Labor’s promotion of female candidates in winnable seats has been a significant factor in their electoral success. Women voters have a clear preference for Labor according to polling information.
b
Yep. Bigger talent pool for one thing. For another thing, policies have a broader input.
Boerwar @ #3568 Sunday, September 9th, 2018 – 11:30 am
This is 100% observably correct.
https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2018/sep/08/unions-poll-massive-backing-second-eu-brexit-referendum
Working people in the UK are increasingly opposed to Brexit…for all the obvious reasons…
https://www.pollbludger.net/2018/09/03/senate-selections/comment-page-73/#comment-2899925
The former Greens leader in Victoria, who is no longer in Parliament, reportedly had such a room. The current Greens leader in Victoria is Samantha Ratnam, making the Greens the largest party in Victoria to have a woman as leader.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Samantha_Ratnam
b
Good to see that the unions in Britain are starting to wake up that May and Corbyn is selling them a dog.
briefly:
Liberal policies are anti-women, and then there’s the culture within the party which is just toxic to women.
“In trade union terms, if we negotiate a pay deal for our members we put that deal back to the members and they decide whether that’s acceptable or not.”
The TUC is expected to adopt a new position on Brexit that will place an emphasis on jobs, rights at work and peace in Northern Ireland. Its executive council is also likely to back the possibility of another vote on Brexit.
Shakira Martin, president of the National Union of Students, who will be speaking at the TUC, said: “What this poll shows is that rank-and-file members of the three largest trade unions in the country are now united in solidarity with young people and students in backing a People’s Vote on the final Brexit deal.
“The campaign for a People’s Vote is a movement that reaches out across regions, party, age, race and class. As we seem to be moving closer to a no-deal scenario which would be disastrous for the country, the time has come to join our voices for a People’s Vote.”
This is one view.
GG @ 12.36pm
That theory is certainly doing the rounds and there was some comment from Joe Barilaro, deputy NSW premier, that McGirr would get a lot of National votes, given that the Nats did not have a candidate. Barilaro also commented that some Nats might even campaign on McGirr’s behalf.
I think he will remain an Independent from what I’ve heard about him. Unlike many rural (and government) folks he strongly believes that climate concerns have to be addressed, saying that “climate change affects health both directly and indirectly”.
Confessions @ 12.37pm
Thank you. I am well and continue to enjoy retirement. I’m rapidly approached my 70th year so we will see what that brings.
I’ve been lurking. Alas, when it comes to posting, the caravan has often moved on so any contribution I might wish to make has become redundant.
Aunt Mavis: “meher baba: [notwithstanding my problems with Labor’s economic and fiscal policies…’]
Care to elucidate?”
You must be new. I really don’t want to go into it all again now. I think it would suffice to say that my views on economic, fiscal and taxation policy are broadly similar to those of Hawke and Keating in their day, and of Malcolm Turnbull in the present day. In my view, the ALP has moved somewhat to the left of where it was in the 1980s and – unlike many other posters on this forum – I don’t see that as a welcome development.
However, I think a lot of the anti-“big end of town” rhetoric we got from Labor in recent years was targeted at Turnbull himself, so it will probably be toned down now. And I would expect that Labor will take a more measured approach to these issues in Government than in Opposition.
allan moyes @ #3642 Sunday, September 9th, 2018 – 12:54 pm
Thanks for your insight.
allan moyes
Hello on your return to the lounge. I seem to remember you had an avatar of some sort previously. Faulty memory on my part ?
meher baba @ #3610 Sunday, September 9th, 2018 – 12:21 pm
That’s a cheap shot, meher baba. I expect better from you and sometimes we get it but not this time.
Just a question. Do you think it okay if a Liberal Party candidate wins off the back of SFF Party preferences? Plus, what is the Labor Party to do, take their preferences and govern as a Labor Party, or not take their preferences and remain in Opposition, as impotent, and ‘principled’, as The Greens?
I know you’ll come back with, ‘but they should be able to win a majority, on their own, with their principles intact’. But that’s not how OPV works. And you know it. So I ask you about the situation which is one where Labor gets to govern with SFF Party preferences, or not, without them.
Boerwar @ #3632 Sunday, September 9th, 2018 – 10:47 am
In other words there is no Holy Trinity. It’s actually the Holy Quartet – Father, Son, Foreskin and Holy Ghost.
Confessions says:
Sunday, September 9, 2018 at 12:54 pm
briefly:
Liberal policies are anti-women, and then there’s the culture within the party which is just toxic to women.
Exactly right.
meher baba,
You must be new.
Another below the belt comment, mb.
Well, Charlton, aka Aunt Mavis, has probably been here longer than you. 🙂