BludgerTrack has been updated with the Newspoll and Essential Research polls conducted last weekend, both of which were devastating for the Coalition. A trend measure like BludgerTrack is not at its best when a landslip like this occurs, and the latest result is characterised by an anomalous surge in the “others”. This is to do with the Coalition and Labor primary vote trends being calculated with very different smoothing parameters, which means the Coalition vote has caught up with the new situation but Labor’s has not.
Nonetheless, the two-party vote has ended up much where the two latest polls are, causing Labor to gain three on the seat projection in Victoria and one apiece in New South Wales, Queensland and Western Australia. All we have had so far on leadership ratings is one preferred prime minister result from Newspoll, which will not be useable until a sufficient base of Morrison-versus-Shorten data becomes available. Full results as always from the link below.
In other news, the Australian Electoral Commission has finally published preference data from the Super Saturday by-elections. These show that the Liberal National Party’s resounding defeat in Longman was achieved despite the fact that 67.74% out of the 15.91% One Nation vote flowed to them as preferences, a dramatic change from their 43.51% in 2016. Labor also had weaker flows of Greens preferences, down from 80.70% to 76.52% in Longman and 86.12% to 73.31% in Braddon. Also in Braddon, Labor received 74.34% of preferences from independent Craig Garland and a bare majority from Shooters Fishers and Farmers.
The full distribution of preferences reveal that the Liberal Democrats edged out the Greens to take second place in Fremantle, obtaining a strong flow of preferences to reach 22.20% to the Greens’ 21.72% at the penultimate count (14,037 to 13,734). Labor’s Josh Wilson prevailed with a two-party margin over the Liberal Democrats of 23.33%. In Perth, the Greens just edged out an independent to reach the final count, at which Labor’s Patrick Gorman was elected with a 13.10% margin.
Ides of March, I took “what’s the go” to mean “what’s the story” and not any special meaning when linked to “au pairs”. Maybe the internal rhyme makes it fun to say.
briefly
You may have already seen this.
Lynking tweets
GST arms race escalates in the west: Attorney General and Peter Dutton supporter Christian Porter will be facing an uphill battle to keep his seat Labor polling showing an almost 20 % collapse in his primary vote. Polling Aug 27, 2018 with 1034 respondents, Source: Labor excerpt https://twitter.com/lynlinking/status/1035717258088071168/photo/1
guytaur, the PRRT bears no resemblance to the half-witted RSPT. As it is, the PRRT needs to be re-written…..something made all the more difficult by the absolute stupidity of the RSPT.
Simon² Katich® @ #198 Saturday, September 1st, 2018 – 9:24 am
Yep, 100%, reality is so much more interesting.
You just go out and let it come to you! 🙂
http://www.abc.net.au/news/2018-09-01/waste-to-flour-food-producers-find-new-market-for-surplus-crop/10178968
Lizzie, I think Coorey described Shorten as “the best in the business …” in the AFR a few days ago. The world is certainly turning (though not on PB)
DaretoTread:
[‘… Griffith if Labor was on the nose’]
The case is, though, Labor’s not on the nose – far from it.
Granted, Terri Butler’s primary vote was reduced by 7.2% in the last election, with the Greens gaining nearly all of it (6.8%). But I can’t see a way forward for the Greens to take Griffith, which since ’77 has been held by Labor, excepting ’96, and also taking into account the fiasco in Canberra, where Labor’s PV and 2PP have improved quite dramatically. The point is that when the governing party is divided, the electorate turns to stability: Labor.
Moreover, Di Natale does not exactly set the earth on fire, lacking the charismatic authority of a Bob Brown, and there are leadership rumblings, with Larissa Waters being touted by some to replace RDN.
I do, however, agree with you to the extent that the Greens’ PV of 10% nationally (see the most recent Newspoll, ER) is not a very good indicator in some of the other seats that you cite. That said, my money’s on Labor not to lose any seats to the Greens.
A PV of 26% for the Liberal in Pearce….highly likely. This is about the same vote as the Liberals received in the Legislative Council in the State Election last year. It can go lower. Porter has no chance whatsoever with a PV so low.
Briefly
Blame Treasury. Or maybe blame Craig Emerson he was involved in both.
Whatever its flaws it like the Petrol version can be revised. Instead we got throw the baby out with the bathwater. It was used as a trojan horse by the right to campaign against fair taxes.
They have lost. Their culmination was the Hockey Budget.
Believe Wayne Swan when he tells you Neo Liberalism is dead. If you can’t believe him then believe Paul Keating who has said the same.
What a shocking sentence.
ABC headline writer, bow your head in shame. I’m sure Tingle wouldn’t have written this.
http://www.abc.net.au/news/2018-09-01/compromise-modern-day-politics-considered-vile-not-always-thus/10187848
That was a short retirement.
https://thewest.com.au/politics/federal-politics/julie-bishop-to-contest-curtin-for-liberals-at-next-federal-election-ng-b88947221z
”
guytaur says:
Saturday, September 1, 2018 at 12:06 pm
SBS News tweets
“What’s the deal with the au pairs?” @billshortenmp has roasted Peter Dutton over the ongoing nanny dramas
https://bit.ly/2N6z5D7
”
I asked a similar question yesterday in PB.
From the earlier string
Last night I was fortunate enough to go to a live music performance by Grace Sanders, a young Perth artist. She is a very talented singer, guitarist, composer and actor. She launched her work tonight at The Rosemount Hotel. I’ve seen a lot of live music in Perth over the years but I’ve seldom seen anyone to rival Grace.
https://m.youtube.com/watch?v=od-QTeNl_b8
https://m.youtube.com/watch?v=cqjUe34lTPg
https://m.youtube.com/watch?v=hLDbarKNi-E
https://m.youtube.com/watch?v=1A7n6KzpX-k
Grace is a really great young artist….21 years old….sophisticated, original music….beautifully performed…just brilliant
AB11
Coorey praising Bill. Like Wow!
I hope we’re not getting too optimistic. We’ve learned from the past week (as if we didn’t already know) that the LNP is full of dirty tricks.
Ven
Great minds think alike? 🙂
Ven
I didn’t respond to your “au pairs” question yesterday because I thought everyone knew about it.
briefly
I agree with you about the LNP prospects in WA. A vote collapse like that reflecting Longman is dire for them.
The question is did Tasmania have a different outcome because it was already a Labor seat?
Edit: Sorry in a Labor state.
PvO in the Weekend Oz not exactly holding back:
‘Compromised ministers now adorn the ranks of cabinet and the outer ministry. How anyone could believe any longer a single word Health Minister Greg Hunt utters in combating Labor attacks is beyond me. Put to one side his policy gymnastics in e-health and so on. Hunt stood up in parliament and expressed confidence in his prime minister immediately after voting to oust him, and immediately before doing so again. And he was scheming with Peter Dutton to run on a ticket as his deputy.’
guytaur @ #210 Saturday, September 1st, 2018 – 9:42 am
It might be dead to many on the left, but that does not make it so for everyone! 🙂
Greensborough Growler @ #212 Saturday, September 1st, 2018 – 9:43 am
When did she say she wasn’t going to? 🙂
Barney
Its dead to most. See the budget rejections. Even Hanson not exactly left leaning rejected the IPA corporate tax cuts 🙂
Happy days
Well yes, Dutton took a couple of hours before catching a plane.
https://www.smh.com.au/politics/federal/scott-morrison-dismisses-concern-over-peter-dutton-s-au-pairs-as-canberra-mud-slinging-20180831-p50127.html
guytaur @ #222 Saturday, September 1st, 2018 – 9:53 am
🙂 🙂 🙂 🙂 🙂
Are you trying to suggest that Hanson makes rational decisions based on evidence?
Barney
Nope. Just that horse self interest riding again 🙂 🙂
Any connection to rationality is probably purely coincidental.
Barney in Go Dau @ #223 Saturday, September 1st, 2018 – 12:51 pm
My recollection was that she was tossing up whether to leave now or at the election. But, that may not be the case.
The only reason she’d stay would be to have a tilt at the Leadership before the next election.
GG
My recollection is there were reports that Bishop was going to retire at the next election.
A few here differed saying she would stay to deny a safe seat to the Dutton supporters.
The Death Rays are going to get a work out – presumably mostly direct at the WA rats who smiled to her face while stabbing her in the back.
JBishop announced she was staying on, but going to the backbench.
I’d like to think it’s because she wants to keep Porter and/or Cormann from moving to her very safe Liberal seat, but apparently she also hasn’t ruled out another shot at the leadership.
The LNP have let their subscription to neo-Liberalism lapse as well….the NAIF illustrates that; their willingness to subsidise Adani illustrates that; their willingness to confiscate power stations illustrates that; their wish to build State-owned coal-fired power stations illustrates that. The protection racket they ran for the banks illustrates that.
The theft of publicly-owned water from the MDB and its transfer to private irrigators illustrates that.
Really….neo-Liberalism has been out of fashion in Lberal circles for some time.
guytaur @ #225 Saturday, September 1st, 2018 – 9:57 am
So that makes about 50-50 even in the Parliament and there are those in Labor’s ranks who don’t reject the idea of the tax cuts, but say the right conditions to implement don’t exist at the moment.
I agree that a new approach is required, but your assertion that most have rejected it and it is dead doesn’t stack up. 🙂
Fess
Seems to me she’d make a very good Leader of the oppn., if all it required was to spit clever insults at Bill Shorten. She’s been successfully doing that at Liberal money-raising gigs for years.
Greensborough Growler @ #226 Saturday, September 1st, 2018 – 9:58 am
And to stop someone presently in Parliament jumping into her safe seat. 🙂
Barney
Its not just my assertion. Its that of Wayne Swan and Paul Keating too.
Barney in Go Dau @ #235 Saturday, September 1st, 2018 – 1:06 pm
That too!
@stigherrian tweets
Whenever the Liberal Party of Australia talks about “the base” I’m always reminded that in Arabic that’s “Al-Qaeda”.
guytaur @ #234 Saturday, September 1st, 2018 – 10:09 am
Which makes it their opinion and whether they are right or wrong doesn’t make a majority! 🙂
briefly @ #232 Saturday, September 1st, 2018 – 1:03 pm
Richard Dennis did a comprehensive analysis of this phenomenon in his Quarterly Review piece earlier this year.
https://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/2018/jun/04/the-big-con-how-neoliberals-convinced-us-there-wasnt-enough-to-go-around
Barney
Nope. However history is supporting them.
Kansas. GFC. All failures of neo liberalism.
We know austerity cutting services and charging more for private sector to do same job is a no brainer failure. We are witnessing its death throes.
Like with communism it will hang around but be in no doubt its now a discredited theory.
”
guytaur says:
Saturday, September 1, 2018 at 12:47 pm
Ven
Great minds think alike?
”
Thanks Guytaur for the compliment. But my point of posting is that ALP was relatively quite till yesterday on this issue instead of making a lot of noise. I thought ALP should be reminded to ask those questions.
One thing I know about Bishop is that she loves politics and would find it hard to quit.
In her favour, she is not associated in any way as a conspirator against Turnbull and, having gone to the backbench, cannot be held responsible for the coming collapse – the impending, inexorable decimation – the stampede by voters away from the Liberals.
She will be able to present herself after the election as a voice of renewal, of past success and of loyalty.
There are many in the Liberal Party who want to reform their stance on energy and the climate. I know. I’ve talked to some of them here in WA. They are not ignorant, but they are scared of their colleagues and their big donors. This goes for the rational voices inside the Nationals as well, who listen to the farming communities. It goes for the Liberal-leaning echelons in the business community. Everyone can see what is happening in the real environment and the real economy. The conservatives can see their own supporters re-aligning themselves behind Labor on these issues.
I think Bishop will be positioning herself to stand up against the Crazy Rump after the election.
Of course, it’s also just possible that the highly-educated and very-well-heeled voters of Curtin might reject any Lib candidate that was not Bishop. She might see herself as preserving the furniture.
”
lizzie says:
Saturday, September 1, 2018 at 12:49 pm
Ven
I didn’t respond to your “au pairs” question yesterday because I thought everyone knew about it.
”
No worries
Wow. After stuffing up the WA economy, Porter comes to Canberra only to find out his treachery is not appreciated by his Pearce constituents. I reckon there would be a number of other WA MPs who are rooing the day they turned on Bishop. Tom French, if he’s standing again, will be over the moon.
guytaur @ #239 Saturday, September 1st, 2018 – 10:16 am
And yet it is still a major factor in economic policy around the world.
Be careful dismissing something while it still exists. 🙂
”
Boerwar says:
Saturday, September 1, 2018 at 1:02 pm
The Death Rays are going to get a work out – presumably mostly direct at the WA rats who smiled to her face while stabbing her in the back.
”
BW did you Hartcher article on JBish. It was another glowing tribute to her greatness. He bemoaned that Libs especially from WA did not realise greatness & voted against her.
briefly
I look forward (if the Coalition lose the election) to a Bishop v Abbott showdown for the leadership.
Fortunately the “petition” will help work out the numbers by counting who is still in Parliament.
Though Morrison will probably be kept on no matter what at least for a short time.
Ven @ #194 Saturday, September 1st, 2018 – 12:22 pm
Ven
No you cannot read the figures that way when there is a big swing on.
To be honest I think that was a tiny fall in greens preferences in Longman given that there was such a HUGE fll in LNP vote
What many in the ALP fail to understand that there is a percentage of LIBERAL voters who when forced will preference Green over ALP. When this mob decide to vote against their usual party they will vote Green and Preference LNP just as when ALP voters are disgrunteled they will vote Green but their preferences will flow back to Labor.
Similarly there is a probably bigger group of voters form BOTH ALP and LNP who when disgrunted will vote PHON or Katter or Palmer but will direct their preferences back to their original preferred party.
I am sure that there would be a masters/phd thesis for some statistician budding pollster to actually calculate the change in preferences compared with the swing.
My guess is that there will be a correlation between size of swing to minor parties and return preference allocation.
But of course you are right that the prefences for Greens is usually about 80% to Labor. However where there is an unpopular LNP candidate then the preference return to Labor will be resuced becuse these are LNP protest voters going home.
briefly:
[‘She will be able to present herself after the election as a voice of renewal, of past success and of loyalty.’]
Yes, she can claim a clean hands. If it does pan out this way, Labor could be in a spot of bother in 2022.
sprocket_ @ #151 Saturday, September 1st, 2018 – 9:37 am
And Syria isn’t?
Briefly/Guytuar
Just on the RSPT, it was a Rudd/Swan attempt to answer internal criticism that the revenue coming to government was too low because of Australia’s natural resources being shipped off with insufficient benefit for Australia. This is a common problem in 3rd World countries, but some places – Norway, The Saudis and Gulf States, Brunei etc – had managed to sequester some of the money into sovereign wealth funds.
The States and their patchwork royalty schemes complicated things, but the mining companies could offset this, along with everything else not nailed down. The policy went through a number of watering down iterations before it was finally killed off – one of the many innovative ideas of Rudd/Swan Mark 1 which essentially failed in the implementation under the weight of vested interest.
Undoubtedly these challenges will recur if tried again