BludgerTrack has been updated with the Newspoll and Essential Research polls conducted last weekend, both of which were devastating for the Coalition. A trend measure like BludgerTrack is not at its best when a landslip like this occurs, and the latest result is characterised by an anomalous surge in the “others”. This is to do with the Coalition and Labor primary vote trends being calculated with very different smoothing parameters, which means the Coalition vote has caught up with the new situation but Labor’s has not.
Nonetheless, the two-party vote has ended up much where the two latest polls are, causing Labor to gain three on the seat projection in Victoria and one apiece in New South Wales, Queensland and Western Australia. All we have had so far on leadership ratings is one preferred prime minister result from Newspoll, which will not be useable until a sufficient base of Morrison-versus-Shorten data becomes available. Full results as always from the link below.
In other news, the Australian Electoral Commission has finally published preference data from the Super Saturday by-elections. These show that the Liberal National Party’s resounding defeat in Longman was achieved despite the fact that 67.74% out of the 15.91% One Nation vote flowed to them as preferences, a dramatic change from their 43.51% in 2016. Labor also had weaker flows of Greens preferences, down from 80.70% to 76.52% in Longman and 86.12% to 73.31% in Braddon. Also in Braddon, Labor received 74.34% of preferences from independent Craig Garland and a bare majority from Shooters Fishers and Farmers.
The full distribution of preferences reveal that the Liberal Democrats edged out the Greens to take second place in Fremantle, obtaining a strong flow of preferences to reach 22.20% to the Greens’ 21.72% at the penultimate count (14,037 to 13,734). Labor’s Josh Wilson prevailed with a two-party margin over the Liberal Democrats of 23.33%. In Perth, the Greens just edged out an independent to reach the final count, at which Labor’s Patrick Gorman was elected with a 13.10% margin.
On the Silk Road caravan routes, there is a great account on Twitter I can recommend
Photos of Silk Road @PicsSilkRoad
Some examples
Tartus, Syria
Kharporcho Fort, Pakistan
It’s a shame Pakistan is too dangerous to travel to at the moment
Alex Turnbull is spot on.
G
Talking about the Greens, how is their costing for the UBI coming along? Nearly ready, is it?
Even though it’s a long shot to unseat Ted Cruz, the Democrat Beto O’Rourke is giving it a red hot go, visiting all of the state’s 254 counties, often repeatedly, drawing bigger crowds to his speeches as he goes. Trump is holding a rally in Texas to support Cruz.
https://www.washingtonpost.com/politics/a-demand-from-texas-voters-in-the-era-of-trump-compassion/2018/08/30/f26cc678-a077-11e8-83d2-70203b8d7b44_story.html?utm_term=.ed38aedfecc4
I am going to call BS on this. It seems to me the Liberal Party are happy to start Morrisons tenure with this poor outlook. All he then needs to do is survive and he is a success.
It is all spin and fluff. I dont care what an insider says. When will we have policies before parliament? You know, the urgent stuff like; a federal ICAC, energy and other emissions policies that assist in meeting our international obligations and control prices (or make them affordable with a fairer distribution of wealth), political donation laws, properly funding public institutions so that they can function the way the public expect rather than decay the like the Right want them to….. I could go on.
Mogotrone
Welcome – all contributions to forum help.
Confessions says: Saturday, September 1, 2018 at 11:29 am
phoenixRed:
That’s the paragraph!
Btw I wish I knew more about how the political parties are governed and structured, including super PACs etc and their history. I feel at a disadvantage reading the book because this isn’t innate knowledge to me as it would be to Americans.
**********************************************************************
I am the same Confessions – its a totally different set-up to what we have in Australia and tricky to understand the finer details of how they work electorally ……. but Wilson sees bad times ahead of the GOP/US due to ONE FACTOR and that is Trump……. and that is a result of the GOP cowards who have refused to do anything to stop his poison being spread on a daily basis. There is next to no-one left in the WH or the GOP itself to put a stop to it …. and if steps are not taken with their electoral process to prevent what was a strong possibility of outside influence and voter manipulation then it will happen all over again
Briefly
Yes it is that Labor has moved. Sure the sex abuse scandal has damaged the Greens.
Along with infighting on show during a campaign.
However make no mistake. Labor gave them an alternative to go to by addressing those voters issues.
This is why the LNP and Murdoch media a wailing about the socialist Labor party. They know a proper progressive movement united under one party can defeat them easily in terms of numbers. Their divide and conquer strategy is failing them as Labor looks to be more progressive having accepted neo liberalism is dead.
Thus Mr Shorten praising Kevin Rudd and Wayne Swan on their economic approach to avoiding the GFC.
No more pandering to the sell everything in sight and underfund services mob.
Edit: I hope Wayne Swan and Kevin Rudd amongst many others are smiling as Gina Rinehardt and Rupert Murdoch’s IPA get their agenda smashed.
All this man bag talk got me thinking what Lefty Guns would say:
A wise guy don’t carry his money in a wallet. He carries his money in a roll. A beaner (hundred dollar note) on the outside.
SK….it is precisely because the LNP is so glaringly policy-free that the “insider” has declared they’re finished. They can no longer even pretend to govern. They’re just not fit for purpose. They have been a governing party for most of the last 70-odd years and can no longer muster a majority on anything of significance. They are doomed.
Whenever the election occurs, the LNP will be smashed.
Personally, I think things will get worse for them as the election approaches.
All the talk of ‘man bags’ reminded me of an encounter many years ago with a young boy who was playing alone with his toys, acting out scenarios for his amusement. I commented to him along the lines of “having fun with your dolls”, which he clearly was, to be firmly told as one would to someone ignorant, “No! They’re action figures.”
Sprocket,
Your Tartus, Syria photo is actually the Krak des Chevaliers.
A constant thought walking around it was that an OH&S person would be having a major fit with the lack of barriers and the like. 🙂
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Krak_des_Chevaliers
Yes. They shut down the Karokorum Highway when I was there. Could only go as far as Tashkorgan. Had to camp at Lake Karakul wedged between two 7500m peaks and get pestered by a curious camel while Chinese military choppers and troop carriers regularly thundered past heading toward the border. Still, the locals made us tea and sheep fat rice and sold us some seriously disgusting and potent fermented something-or-other milk.
guytaur says:
Saturday, September 1, 2018 at 11:40 am
Briefly
Yes it is that Labor has moved.
This is self-trickery. Labor have been rolling along doing what they always do. It is their very consistency that is the foundation of their support. Labor is now the voice of continuity, stability, predictability, certainty.
They have a reform agenda….but by comparison with the LNP they represent order and reliability. This is a formidable combination.
SK
Mare’s milk?
I have used a manbag once and once only and That was on a work trip to Europe. I still shudder as I think of it. I was set to depart from Dusseldorf to come home and has been waiting to be called aboard. The call finally came and I boarded. Having taken my seat I realised that the manbag had been left in thE terminal. I rushed back out and thing was still there with my passport, travellers cheques etc in it.
Never again!
AP sources: Lawyer was told Russia had ‘Trump over a barrel’
WASHINGTON (AP) — A senior Justice Department lawyer says a former British spy told him at a breakfast meeting two years ago that Russian intelligence believed it had Donald Trump “over a barrel,” according to multiple people familiar with the encounter.
The lawyer, Bruce Ohr, also says he learned that a Trump campaign aide had met with higher-level Russian officials than the aide had acknowledged, the people said.
https://apnews.com/4ac772445073491aa7d3ca9e558e0144
BW, it was like the Kumis I had in Kyrgyzstan, only this one knocked your socks and thermals off. These Kyrgyz didnt speak Russian so it was hard to understand what it was. They pointed to yaks, and camels, but my impression was these people were always having a bit of a laugh at our expense.
SK
I imagine that that is why the single purpose scrotum is firmly attached to a person’s fundament.
Imagine leaving THAT behind in a terminal.
probably a made-up n0-idea type gossip mag report …..
Melania Trump Humiliated By Donald Disses At Aretha Franklin’s Funeral — ‘It Really Stings’
A source close to Melania Trump told us EXCLUSIVELY that she’s mortified over the shade thrown at her husband. “Melania feels humiliated and embarrassed by the multiple Donald insults at the Aretha funeral,” our source said. “It makes Melania feel horrible that Donald is not welcome or invited to Aretha’s funeral as well as McCain’s funeral and then to hear about speakers making subtle jabs at her husband while speaking at Aretha’s funeral only makes things worse. Melania wishes more people liked her family and is constantly embarrassed by the public’s opinion of her husband and when people take shots at him and her family, it really stings.”
As a result, Melania has been trying to get Donald to reel back his rhetoric. “Melania is constantly pleading with Donald to choose his words more carefully and tone it down when speaking in public, to the press or even in private,” our source went on to say.
https://hollywoodlife.com/2018/08/31/melania-trump-humiliated-donald-disses-aretha-franklin-funeral/
The Tories will be going out of their tiny minds. They know they are about to get their biggest hiding since the 1940s. The values that will attract disaffected past-Lib voters to Labor – stability, predictable egalitarian reform, social investment, action on climate change – will also attract past-G voters too. These switch-voters will be expressing a desire for a change of government….a desire that will become the driving factor in voter behaviour in the approach to the election.
Briefly
The self trickery is yours in not recognising the death of neo liberalism.
The smashing of the IPA agenda that started with Reagan and Thatcher. Now there are socialists in every gutter.
Australia rejected that agenda when Abbott had Hockey present it to the people. Labor has recognised this. Its been a 15 year or so fight since that on the back of the ute campaign against fair taxes. The Right have lost.
Some days, you get good news, even out of this dysfunctional government …
http://www.abc.net.au/news/2018-09-01/church-mandatory-reporting-laws-push-by-states/10190712
Let’s hope they get this done ASAP. It may well end up being their only legacy!
From necessity, I use a small flat bag to carry my ipad. There’s no other way to protect it, and a few other objects find their way in…..letters, pens, a diary, the back-up battery for the phone…not bad…practical…
BK @ #167 Saturday, September 1st, 2018 – 8:52 am
That’s why I like my monk’s bag, you don’t need to take it off.
If I had something I needed to carry in my hands, I’d hate to think of the number of new and emergency passports I’d have had to get. 🙂
Why do all the world travellers on here remind me of J.Peterman from Seinfeld:
Then in the distance I heard the bulls, and I began running as fast as I could. Fortunately I was wearing my Italian Oxfords. Sophisticated yet different without making a huge fuss about it.
guytaur says:
Saturday, September 1, 2018 at 11:57 am
Briefly
The self trickery is yours in not recognising the death of neo liberalism.
The smashing of the IPA agenda that started with Reagan and Thatcher.
The implosion of the Liberal Party in the last couple of weeks owes very little to disillusionment with neo-liberalism. I reckon if you asked most voters what they thought about that phrase, they would just shrug. The Liberals are in trouble because they are decadent, corrupt, anti-democratic, reactionary, incapacitated and very, very, very stupid.
SBS News tweets
“What’s the deal with the au pairs?” @billshortenmp has roasted Peter Dutton over the ongoing nanny dramas
https://bit.ly/2N6z5D7
How to spend a Saturday afternoon.
https://twitter.com/i/status/1035270344372887553
Nick Monachie tweets
Not mine but so amazing – Peter Dutton, Minister for Home Au Pairs #auspol
I try very hard to sound like J Peterman. He is the best Seinfeld character there is. The segment on heroine is a classic.
Patty is my second favourite. Third is the soup nazi.
No more soup for you nath!
guytaur, the back-of-the-ute campaign was raised against the RSPT….one of the most idiotic concepts to be allowed out of captivity; something that has set back resource taxation for a generation. Rudd thought he could use it to brighten his credentials. It destroyed him.
briefly
You have not been paying attention to why the split. Turnbull attempted to appease the IPA coal at all costs agenda.
Make no mistake. The right agenda is falling apart.
The crazy branch decided to destroy Turnbull despite his appeasement. He was not torn down by the moderates, but by the dark-hearts of the reactionary right.
Yeah, Peterman and the Soup Nazi were great. You can’t go past George’s Parent though.
We’re moving into Del Boca Vista lock, stock and barrel!
briefly
Did you say the same about the Hawke Keating Petroleum Rent Tax?
Bill Shorten speaking at the Qld conference – ABC allowed him around 15 mins. The world is turning!!
Bill’s delivery was excellent, varied in tone, full of meat and pauses to allow for applause. He looked veeeeery relaxed.
Gosh, you might think he had an “ambition to become PM” (quote from a newspaper this morning, which I took to be a snark).
guytaur @ #173 Saturday, September 1st, 2018 – 8:57 am
They still seem quite active and consistent in their beliefs.
Is that why Labor are the current Government?
Oh, shit!
They’re not! 🙂
As this talk about nothing (man bags) continues. The invention of the bag ranks higher than that of the wheel, in my estimation.
While not ‘election realistic’ thems is noice numbers, WIlliam!
What it does do, is give them a much bigger hurdle to jump in just 9 months or so – possibly less.
Morrison hasn’t the kind of charisma (if he has any at all) to achieve this. For the Rexes of this world who complain bitterly about Bill’s image, we now have a contest where he cannot possibly worry that the govt leader is streets ahead (not that I ever thought Turnbull was).
The only thing that will stop a Labor govt is some sort of catastrophic black swan, I’d suspect.
I imagine those in WA would agree with this assessment on ABC online?
Barney
It takes time for things to change and be recognised as change. The failure of communism took ages for people to realise. The right capitalised on this by calling socialists wannabe communists. Automatic association for dictatorship especially in the US.
Even with a majority the LNP had to dump Abbott because he was associated with that IPA agenda. Turnbull’s most popular approval ratings were when it was thought he was not doing the IPA agenda.
All his appeasing has come to naught as the voters have woken up to this. Thus we now see the polling for Labor which is NOT for the IPA agenda.
Make no mistake. This is a massive blow to the right and its going to take years to work out what the centre is going to be as the right shrieks and tries to use law and order and the “trains running on time” to distract from their lack of economic credibility
jenauthor @ #191 Saturday, September 1st, 2018 – 12:17 pm
The Libs may yet switch to Julie Bishop if their numbers continue to tank.
BW, Guytaur, DTT. Continuing from my previous post
”
Ven says:
Saturday, September 1, 2018 at 11:21 am
BW@11:00am
I am providing red meat to you now. Sorry I am doing it but I got pissed off with the below numbers
Did you notice the preferences ALP got from Greens as posted in this article by Bowe
In Longman it dropped by4%
In Braddon it dropped by 13%
And fortunately ALP still won those by-elections
Some of the posters posted that ALP gets up to 90% preferences from Greens. But it got only 75%.
So the moral of the story do not expect more than 75% preferences from Greens in next election.
”
According to Bowe prediction & estimations
Labor 36.8%
Coalition 33.5%
Greens 10.3%
One Nation 7.5%
Majors vote is about 70% (70.3)
The rest is about 30%
But Greens & PHON are getting about 18%
Other 12%
However, If
Greens preferences flow to ALP is 75%, then ALP gets 7.5% of Greens vote
PHON preferences to ALP is 1/3, then ALP gets 2.5% of PHON vote
i.e ALP gets 10 out of 18% of Greens and PHON vote, which is 55.5%. It is difficult to predict the preferences flows of others. So, irrespective of the what the vote of Greens & PHON is at next election, we 55.5 % of their vote. Hence, it is imperative that ALP should aim for a minimum of 40% PV across country to ensure win
Malcolm may have left the building, but his son is stepping up.
The secret to all good travel stories is to never lie. Dont even embellish. If you travel right, you dont need to. Crazy weird stuff just happens.
Stay in 4-5 star hotels, eat in nice restaurants and wander the well worn path and all you get are nice photos of buildings and pretty views.
Can someone explain the ‘whats the go with the au pairs’ line that everyone keeps shouting/laughing at. Is it a reference to something that is lost on me?
Today’s PvO, still seething at the Abbottobods.
https://www.theaustralian.com.au/news/inquirer/dutton-backers-wont-stop-at-toppling-turnbull/news-story/d105a21e1e2233a2db045e1577d3add8
Ides:
From a Shorten zinger when he spoke at the Qld Labor conference.