Essential Research: 55-45 to Labor

Further post-spill polling from Essential finds clarity on voting intention but mixed messages on other measures, while Newspoll bids farewell to the Turnbull era with one last set of state breakdowns.

The latest fortnightly Essential Research follows Newspoll in recording an allergic reaction to the dumping of Malcolm Turnbull, with Labor’s 52-48 lead blowing out to 55-45. The report in The Guardian reveals the Coalition is down four on the primary vote to 35%, but that’s all we have for now. There is also no direct indication of whether the poll adjusted its usual Thursday to Sunday field work period to account for the leadership change on Friday, as Newspoll did by chopping out the Thursday, but the supplementary questions suggest as much. UPDATE: Full results here. They indeed held back starting the field work until Friday evening. The primary votes are Coalition 35% (down four), Labor 39% (up two), Greens 10% (steady), One Nation 7% (up one).

Some of these findings add to a confused picture when considered in conjunction with other polls. Scott Morrison holds a 39-29 lead over Bill Shorten in prime minister, which reverses the Newspoll result but is in line with the findings of ReachTEL’s seat polls for the Fairfax papers. Fifty-two per cent supported an early election, which is a very different finding from the ReachTEL polls. Then again, 56% agreed Scott Morrison should be given time “to show he can do a better job of governing Australia”, so who knows what people want.

Conversely, a question on preferred Liberal leader produces similar results to Newspoll: Malcolm Turnbull falls from 28% to 15% as support shifts to Julie Bishop (up seven to 23%) and Scott Morrison (up eight to 10%), while Tony Abbott and Peter Dutton remain much as they were, on 9% and 4% respectively. The poll also includes the somewhat surprising finding (to me at least) that 35% approve of the leadership change, with 40% disapproving. A striking 57% agreed with the proposition that “the Liberal party is divided and no longer fit to govern Australia”.

Also featured are semi-regular questions on the parties’ attributes, which I might have something to say about when I see the full results, and questions on six policy propositions, which find support for lower immigration, opposition to withdrawing from the Paris agreement, mixed views on funding more coal-fired power plants and opposition to company tax cuts.

Also today, The Australian has rolled together results from the last three Newspolls under Malcolm Turnbull to produce a final set of quarterly state breakdowns for his prime ministership, interrupting their usual schedule of publishing these at the end of each quarter. The results are very like those of BludgerTrack in finding solid swings against the government in Queensland (4.1%) and Western Australia (4.7%), only small swings in New South Wales (0.9%) and Victoria (2.2%), and a swing to the Coalition in South Australia (3.3%), where the Liberals seem to be benefiting from the new state government’s honeymoon and the decline of Nick Xenophon. UPDATE: Full results here; HT to GhostWhoVotes.

Finally, it is anticipated that a by-election in Wentworth will be held on October 6, after Malcolm Turnbull today told colleagues he would resign from parliament on Friday. While Christine Foster, Sydney councillor and sister of Tony Abbott, has attracted the most media attention, Andrew Clennell of The Australian reports the more likely Liberal candidate is Dave Sharma, former ambassador to Israel. Others mentioned as candidates are Andrew Bragg, a director at the Business Council of Australia and former leader of the Yes same-sex marriage survey campaign, who will vie with Sharma for backing from factional moderates; Peter King, tha barrister who held the seat from 2001 until Turnbull defeated him for preselection in 2004; Katherine O’Regan, a Woollahra councillor.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

1,467 comments on “Essential Research: 55-45 to Labor”

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  2. Regarding Q&A last night.

    I thought O’Toole got better as the show went on.

    She firmly put Hansen in her place with this retort.

    Hanson, who condemned the speech and admitted that she did not know what the white Australia policy was, called for a moratorium on Muslim immigration. “Muslims have a different ideology and belief and assimilating into our society,” she said. “I’m not saying all Muslims.”

    It was a suggestion that drew sharp criticism from O’Toole and Waters.

    “I have worked with people from different ethnic backgrounds in the mental health space and the trauma and the torture that they have experienced to get to this country where they thought they were going to be accepted,” O’Toole said. “They are so grateful to be here and what do we do? Smack them in the face with hatred and bigotry. It’s not good enough. We are better than that.”

    Katter showed himself to be a dinosaur, Waters was a mixed bag and seemed to mix up crocodiles and refugees, while George was relatively constrained which was surprising.

    https://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/2018/aug/28/qanda-hatred-bigotry-labor-cathy-otoole-hanson-katter-christensen

  4. Senator Bernie Sanders tweets

    Congratulations to the courageous workers and their unions at Disney World for their historic victory. I applaud everyone who stood up to demand that workers at one of the wealthiest corporations in the world should have a decent standard of living. https://twitter.com/YahooFinance/status/1034019453753876481

    Good to see another union win in the States. I notice also that Trump with his Trade Deal with Mexico has accepted the term Living Wage. Thats going to hurt the GOP long term.

  5. Zoidlord @ #43 Tuesday, August 28th, 2018 – 8:29 am

    Malcolm Turnbull never did this….

    https://mobile.twitter.com/TheMuellerName/status/1034180903335940096/photo/1

    That made me think. I don’t do twitter, so I wonder if there is a way to list who any particular account has blocked. A simple list of blocked accounts might be interesting. Comparing Turnbull’s versus Morrison’s block-list might be informative, too. I can think of other stats like follower to block ratio might indicate a defensive account? My guess is it is the sort of thing twitter might want to hide though. Just curious.

  7. What a weird comment.

    Minerva Zimmerman‏ @grumpymartian · 23h23 hours ago

    You know why “everything” tastes like chicken? It isn’t everything, it’s just all the animals that have dinosaurs as ancestors. Technically they all taste like dinosaur.

  8. At least a couple of decades of struggle ahead till some sort of equit balance is restored:
    “Capitalism is hollowing itself out,” he said. “The capitalists refuse to face this because they are making money, for a while. That’s the same logic as the monarchs before the French Revolution building the fantastic Versailles without understanding they were digging their own graves in those lovely gardens.”
    https://www.truthdig.com/articles/becoming-serfs/

  11. Urban Wronski‏ @UrbanWronski · 3m3 minutes ago

    No more ABC news of the Vietnamese refugees who just arrived by boat?
    More proof that “stop the boats” is all about stopping us from knowing about them.

  12. Privatisation continues in Victoria.

    http://www.abc.net.au/news/2018-08-27/victoria-privatises-its-land-titles-and-registry-office/10169056

    The Victorian Government has privatised the Land Titles and Registry office, reaping an extra $2.86 billion for the state and giving both political parties more cash to make promises with in the lead-up to the November election.
    :::
    There has been opposition to Labor’s plan to privatise the body, with a warning of price rises for the services and concerns over privacy of sensitive information.
    :::
    The privatisation follows the sale of the Port of Melbourne by the Andrews Government raising nearly $10 billion.
    :::
    A Community and Public Sector Union spokesman called the sale a “short-sighted revenue grab”.

    “LUV [Land Use Victoria] is a monopoly asset, and as such this commercialisation will never see the functions ever return and this poses a serious reputational risk,” spokesman Julian Kennelly said.

  13. lizzie @ #105 Tuesday, August 28th, 2018 – 9:35 am

    What a weird comment.

    Minerva Zimmerman‏ @grumpymartian · 23h23 hours ago

    You know why “everything” tastes like chicken? It isn’t everything, it’s just all the animals that have dinosaurs as ancestors. Technically they all taste like dinosaur.

    Lizzie

    It is recent science

    I heard yesterday (or Sunday) that genetic evidence shows that dinosaurs were in fact just big burds. Virtually no genetic difference or some such. So chicken is dinosaur.

  15. Hi Everyone – sorry to ask this question here – How do I register for an account? I’ve registered with PressPatron but cannot Login here on the right?

  19. Deborah‏ @Prufrockery · 11h11 hours ago

    WTAF? Next week on #qanda there’s Ciobo, Alan Jones and a Murdoch editor. Why? This will be Alan Jones THIRD appearance this year. Why is the #abc bowing down to Far Right media and particularly the very toxic Jones as well as Murdoch press? It’s bullshit.

  20. DaretoTread @ #115 Tuesday, August 28th, 2018 – 6:39 am

    lizzie @ #105 Tuesday, August 28th, 2018 – 9:35 am

    What a weird comment.

    Minerva Zimmerman‏ @grumpymartian · 23h23 hours ago

    You know why “everything” tastes like chicken? It isn’t everything, it’s just all the animals that have dinosaurs as ancestors. Technically they all taste like dinosaur.

    Lizzie

    It is recent science

    I heard yesterday (or Sunday) that genetic evidence shows that dinosaurs were in fact just big burds. Virtually no genetic difference or some such. So chicken is dinosaur.

    No, a chicken is not a dinosaur, that’s like saying Homo sapiens are pigs or guerillas.

    Reptiles and birds share the same evolutionary tree.

    There is also evidence that at least some dinosaurs had feathers.

  22. Because birds evolved from dinosaurs, they are considered a type of dinosaur. So birds are dinosaurs. Feathers probably originally evolved for insulation, before taking on a function in flight.

  29. lizzie @ #105 Tuesday, August 28th, 2018 – 9:35 am

    What a weird comment.

    Minerva Zimmerman‏ @grumpymartian · 23h23 hours ago

    You know why “everything” tastes like chicken? It isn’t everything, it’s just all the animals that have dinosaurs as ancestors. Technically they all taste like dinosaur.

    We enjoy a pheasant coucal that visits us most days for a bit of meat. (The bird is my avatar.) We often refer to her as our dinosaur. She has a keen no-nonsense look and claws that fit the tag.

  32. Steve777
    “Some zoologists say dinosaurs never died out, they survived and are all around us, called birds.”

    Almost all biologists now say this. The idea that birds are dinosaurs used to be considered controversial (up until the 1980’s), but it’s now mainstream science.

  34. ar
    Darn, I knew I should have taken the Creationist Science elective. But I took Numerology instead, because it seemed more scientifically rigorous.

  37. Ante Meridian says:

    Barney,

    Homo sapiens make better guerrillas than gorillas.

    When a wee’un and the Vietnam war was in full swing I’d occasionally listen to the news on the radio (kids program after it). I knew we were fighting the Viet Cong but the life of me I could not figure out why ‘gorillas’ kept attacking our soldiers and vice versa 🙂

  38. Kakuru @ #134 Tuesday, August 28th, 2018 – 6:59 am

    Steve777
    “Some zoologists say dinosaurs never died out, they survived and are all around us, called birds.”

    Almost all biologists now say this. The idea that birds are dinosaurs used to be considered controversial (up until the 1980’s), but it’s now mainstream science.

    I thick the question is, did birds evolve from dinosaurs or was there a common ancestor from which both evolved? 🙂

  39. poroti @ #139 Tuesday, August 28th, 2018 – 7:09 am

    Ante Meridian says:

    Barney,

    Homo sapiens make better guerrillas than gorillas.

    When a wee’un and the Vietnam war was in full swing I’d occasionally listen to the news on the radio (kids program after it). I knew we were fighting the Viet Cong but the life of me I could not figure out why ‘gorillas’ kept attacking our soldiers and vice versa 🙂

    I’m surrounded by them as I type! 🙂

  42. Barney
    “I thick the question is, did birds evolve from dinosaurs or was there a common ancestor from which both evolved?”

    No longer a question. It’s now clear that birds evolved directly from dinosaurs. The idea of a common “thecodont” ancestor of dinosaurs and birds has been thoroughly refuted.

  43. @Peg

    Lol

    It’s a 40 year lease. Not privatisation!

    Compared to the 99 year leases that LNP and then actually sell it.

    Far better option to retain the revenue

  46. The privatization of State assets sees the Federal Government paying incentives to State Governments, State Governments otherwise being short changed and under pressure by the agenda of the current Federal Government.

    So the Federal Government continues to “squeeze” State governments then offering the “out” by way of incentives for the sales of State government owned assets.

    Look at the incentive for the sale of the Port of Melbourne, and the Federal government then looking to renege in part because the Sale was outside the time span for the added incentive.

    The GST has been a disaster.

    Better to allow the States to generate their own income instead of being reliant on what is on offer from a flawed GST and then being compromised by the Federal government aka sale of public assets.

    Another Liberal success story

  49. Andrews is building rail infrustructure that not only makes sense, but is needed, yet the HS will still do all they can to try and hound the Victorian Government out of office.
    And Rupe wonders why bugger all people still bother to buy his rag

  50. An interesting read from Berkley Uni. A !!! bit in it (strange as it may sound) birds are technically considered reptiles.

    Are Birds Really Dinosaurs?

    Ask your average paleontologist who is familiar with the phylogeny of vertebrates and they will probably tell you that yes, birds (avians) are dinosaurs. Using proper terminology, birds are avian dinosaurs; other dinosaurs are non-avian dinosaurs, and (strange as it may sound) birds are technically considered reptiles. Overly technical? Just semantics? Perhaps, but still good science. In fact, the evidence is overwhelmingly in favor of birds being the descendants of a maniraptoran dinosaur, probably something similar (but not identical) to a small dromaeosaur. What is this evidence?

    http://www.ucmp.berkeley.edu/diapsids/avians.html

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