Essential Research: 55-45 to Labor

Further post-spill polling from Essential finds clarity on voting intention but mixed messages on other measures, while Newspoll bids farewell to the Turnbull era with one last set of state breakdowns.

The latest fortnightly Essential Research follows Newspoll in recording an allergic reaction to the dumping of Malcolm Turnbull, with Labor’s 52-48 lead blowing out to 55-45. The report in The Guardian reveals the Coalition is down four on the primary vote to 35%, but that’s all we have for now. There is also no direct indication of whether the poll adjusted its usual Thursday to Sunday field work period to account for the leadership change on Friday, as Newspoll did by chopping out the Thursday, but the supplementary questions suggest as much. UPDATE: Full results here. They indeed held back starting the field work until Friday evening. The primary votes are Coalition 35% (down four), Labor 39% (up two), Greens 10% (steady), One Nation 7% (up one).

Some of these findings add to a confused picture when considered in conjunction with other polls. Scott Morrison holds a 39-29 lead over Bill Shorten in prime minister, which reverses the Newspoll result but is in line with the findings of ReachTEL’s seat polls for the Fairfax papers. Fifty-two per cent supported an early election, which is a very different finding from the ReachTEL polls. Then again, 56% agreed Scott Morrison should be given time “to show he can do a better job of governing Australia”, so who knows what people want.

Conversely, a question on preferred Liberal leader produces similar results to Newspoll: Malcolm Turnbull falls from 28% to 15% as support shifts to Julie Bishop (up seven to 23%) and Scott Morrison (up eight to 10%), while Tony Abbott and Peter Dutton remain much as they were, on 9% and 4% respectively. The poll also includes the somewhat surprising finding (to me at least) that 35% approve of the leadership change, with 40% disapproving. A striking 57% agreed with the proposition that “the Liberal party is divided and no longer fit to govern Australia”.

Also featured are semi-regular questions on the parties’ attributes, which I might have something to say about when I see the full results, and questions on six policy propositions, which find support for lower immigration, opposition to withdrawing from the Paris agreement, mixed views on funding more coal-fired power plants and opposition to company tax cuts.

Also today, The Australian has rolled together results from the last three Newspolls under Malcolm Turnbull to produce a final set of quarterly state breakdowns for his prime ministership, interrupting their usual schedule of publishing these at the end of each quarter. The results are very like those of BludgerTrack in finding solid swings against the government in Queensland (4.1%) and Western Australia (4.7%), only small swings in New South Wales (0.9%) and Victoria (2.2%), and a swing to the Coalition in South Australia (3.3%), where the Liberals seem to be benefiting from the new state government’s honeymoon and the decline of Nick Xenophon. UPDATE: Full results here; HT to GhostWhoVotes.

Finally, it is anticipated that a by-election in Wentworth will be held on October 6, after Malcolm Turnbull today told colleagues he would resign from parliament on Friday. While Christine Foster, Sydney councillor and sister of Tony Abbott, has attracted the most media attention, Andrew Clennell of The Australian reports the more likely Liberal candidate is Dave Sharma, former ambassador to Israel. Others mentioned as candidates are Andrew Bragg, a director at the Business Council of Australia and former leader of the Yes same-sex marriage survey campaign, who will vie with Sharma for backing from factional moderates; Peter King, tha barrister who held the seat from 2001 until Turnbull defeated him for preselection in 2004; Katherine O’Regan, a Woollahra councillor.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

1,467 comments on “Essential Research: 55-45 to Labor”

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  4. rhwombat, if you’re still reading the blog, just to let you know I finally finished the book on brains being time machines. Thank you for pointing it out to me. It was a slog but got to the points I was interested in by about page 175 and made a couple of new points after that. I found the writing style more suited to an inquisitive 12 year old discovering new ideas, rather than to someone like me, bored and frustrated by having to dig for them. Probably just a reflection on me. I’ll keep looking for similar. Thanks again!

  8. The King Of Id and Sir Rodney are looking out over a field where soldiers are punching, kicking, and generally laying into each other.

    King : “How’s the training going, Rod?”

    Rodney : “Very well, Sire. They’re almost guerrillas.”

    King : “So are baboons.”

  9. Some extracts from the Essential Report. http://www.essentialvision.com.au/category/essentialreport
    Tossing Turnbull had this effect.

    Attributes of the Liberal Party
    Main changes since last month were – divided (up 23%), has a good team of leaders (down 14%) and clear about what they stand for (down 12%).

    Attributes of the Labor Party
    Since this question was asked last month, the only substantial change has been for divided (down 10%).

  11. The Barnaby story this morning is hilarious.

    Of course this is nothing like his failure to divest his Kiwi citizenship which was similarly “jeopardising (the) Coalition’s majority.” 🙂

    Barnaby Joyce criticises Turnbull’s resignation as jeopardising Coalition’s majority

    Former deputy PM says Turnbull has contractual relationship with voters and should ‘leave on the right terms’

    Where is this contract that says a politician can not resign?

    https://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/2018/aug/28/barnaby-joyce-criticises-turnbulls-resignation-as-jeopardising-coalitions-majority

  13. mickmack,

    Yes, birds are warm-blooded. The general consensus these days is that so were the dinosaurs. The distinctions between various classes of animals (like birds, mammals and reptiles) aren’t as clear-cut as we used to believe.

  14. Barney – Jabba Joyce would have been at the heart of the attempt to topple Turnbull. Yet, now he complains about Turnbull heading out the door! As you say, hilarious.

  15. Barnaby Joyce, like Tony Abbott, have an opinion of themselves, somewhat different from general consensus, and neither is able to understand that it is this failing which has shown them to be unable to maintain successful leadership roles.

  16. antonbruckner11 @ #166 Tuesday, August 28th, 2018 – 7:44 am

    Barney – Jabba Joyce would have been at the heart of the attempt to topple Turnbull. Yet, now he complains about Turnbull heading out the door! As you say, hilarious.

    Yep, the Potato as PM would have opened the door for his return as deputy PM.

    I can see it still happening, but not quite as easily. 🙂

  18. I’m not happy with another Abbott standing for election. Maybe that’s biased, but he has been so utterly destructive of progress in Australia that I just want him GONE.

  19. Golly @ #167 Tuesday, August 28th, 2018 – 7:46 am

    Barnaby Joyce, like Tony Abbott, have an opinion of themselves, somewhat different from general consensus, and neither is able to understand that it is this failing which has shown them to be unable to maintain successful leadership roles.

    The difference with Barnaby is that it wasn’t his incompetence as a Minister and deputy PM that lost him his job. 🙂

  20. lizzie @ #170 Tuesday, August 28th, 2018 – 7:48 am

    I’m not happy with another Abbott standing for election. Maybe that’s biased, but he has been so utterly destructive of progress in Australia that I just want him GONE.

    It will be interesting to hear more about where she stands on a range of issues.

    At the moment all we only really know about her is with ME where a declared self interest was in play. 🙂

  21. Turnbull said ages ago that he’d resign if he was toppled. They’re getting the shits because he’s keeping his word.

    Same as when Bernardi defected. He’d been threatening to do so for some time but they kept him number 1 on the SA ticket and then complained when he did!

    Fuckwits!

  28. Andrew Bragg
    ‏ @ajamesbragg
    25m25 minutes ago

    I have resigned from the BCA to contest Liberal Party preselection in Wentworth. I thank Jennifer Westacott, the staff & members for the opportunity. Under the Party’s rules, I am unable to make further comment on the preselection.

  29. My daughter put it succinctly the other day in a discussion on coincidences (I forget which coincidence it was) with words like, “There is so much happening at any one time that coincidences happen all the time. They’re nothing special.” My take is that spotting one might make you notice something you missed, but in themselves they mean little.

  31. I have heard it said that dinosaurs are reptiles in the same way that apes are fish.

    Biologically there is no such thing as fish.

  32. Golly @ #165 Tuesday, August 28th, 2018 – 10:46 am

    Barnaby Joyce, like Tony Abbott, have an opinion of themselves, somewhat different from general consensus, and neither is able to understand that it is this failing which has shown them to be unable to maintain successful leadership roles.

    This is a good point. The same of course is true of Trump. Such people tend to end up being disproportionately destructive in their own right, or the puppets of others who can manipulate their deficiencies for their own benefit.

    Perhaps we should be paying more attention to people in their youth to try and identify those with a significant lack of self-awareness, and possibly help them rectify such dysfunction … or at least teach others how to identify them!

    Basic psychology should probably be a mandatory course in high school, along with ethics, civics and financial literacy (yes, I know I’m dreaming – but imagine how much better off we would be as a society if this were the case!)

  33. People don’t buy newspapers because they get news online and a lot visit opinion echo chambers like this one where they get continually reassured their opinion is correct and everyone who holds a different opinion is an idiot or worse. The media only ever put forward a different view because they are biased and promoting the idiots.

  34. Earlier on, someone asked the rhetorical question “Since when have MPs not been allowed to resign from parliament?” (or words to that effect), in response to Joyce’s criticism of Turnbull.

    Interestingly, in the Westminster parliament, MPs are, in fact, technically not allowed to resign.

    From Wikipedia :

    “Technically, MPs have no right to resign their seats (though they may refuse to seek re-election). However a legal fiction allows voluntary resignation between elections; as MPs are forbidden from holding an “office of profit under the Crown”, an MP wishing to resign will apply for the Stewardship of the Chiltern Hundreds or the Stewardship of the Manor of Northstead which are, nominally, such paid offices and thus result in the MP vacating their seat. (Accepting a salaried Ministerial office does not amount to a paid office under the Crown for these purposes.) “

  35. Who is Andrew Bragg? A bing search yielded “632 likes. Author, presenter, leader & lapsed accountant” on facebook. The description was doing well until it got to “leader”. The only people I ever met who bragged about being a leader were those who weren’t and merely wanted to be in charge. Born-to-rule? Check. Other characteristics being author and presenter (tells others what’s important) and ex-accountant (no real job).

    Assuming it was Andrew who put those words out there for us to enjoy, hmm…

  37. Edi_Mahin @ #183 Tuesday, August 28th, 2018 – 11:08 am

    People don’t buy newspapers because they get news online and a lot visit opinion echo chambers like this one where they get continually reassured their opinion is correct and everyone who holds a different opinion is an idiot or worse. The media only ever put forward a different view because they are biased and promoting the idiots.

    And of course the same was true when they did buy newspapers – i.e. they would typically buy the one that most reflected and reinforced their existing views.

  40. Yassmin Abdel-Magied was hounded out of Australia by shock jocks, Sky News and right-wing red-necked gutter trash.

    What a disgrace they are.

    “So bye-bye baby Yassmina. Bye bye, straighty-180 engineer, toothy-smiled TV presenter, giggling Good Muslim Girl who thought that her trio posse of innocence, positivity and optimism were all she needed. I’ve got new friends now.”

    https://www.theguardian.com/culture/2018/aug/28/i-wanted-to-make-jokes-about-my-destroyed-career-but-all-i-felt-was-grief

  42. I breed chickens – they go through a stage where they look so like dinosaurs it’s ridiculous! You also see how flight evolved – even a very small chicken, with undeveloped wings, can leap extraordinarily high for its size.

  45. I have heard it said that dinosaurs are reptiles in the same way that apes are fish

    Biologically there is no such thing as fish

    I think that was the point the person was trying to make. Classifications help comprehend complicated things, just like planetary atomic theory. Just be prepared for the limitations.

  47. JBishop says she is hanging around.

    Perhaps a message to her fellow WA Libs, none of whom voted for her in the leadership ballot and some of whom are in serious danger at the next election.

    If you think she might be offering a safe seat to the likes of Christian Porter, think again.

  48. What we really need is a resignation from a marginal coalition-held seat. Preferably one in Queensland. Maybe someone with failed leadership ambitions…

  50. Peter Lewis in the article accompanying the tables really makes it crystal clear. Morrison is a caretaker prime minister as the LNP has received substantial damage.

    I tuned into ABC Radio briefly yesterday and Morrison was being interviewed. He was talking in that dog race caller fashion that he does. I was fascinated as I didnt hear the start so I couldnt for life of me understand what he was talking about. It became a challenge for me to figure it out. Something about children going to school… Was it Indigenous policy? Education Policy? It was so many words, so fast, only some of them formed sentences…. but what was he on about? Minutes seemed to pass, maybe more, I was getting frustrated…. I couldnt figure it out. In the end, I cottoned on it was drought related but mainly words with no substance.

    Caretaker barely covers it.

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