The spilling season

A review of the situation as it appeared overnight, plus polling suggesting voters would far prefer Bishop to Dutton if they really can’t have Turnbull.

“The Herald Sun understands Peter Dutton has reached 43 names and the petition will be presented to the Prime Minister tomorrow morning calling for a leadership spill”, runs the one indication I am aware of that the Peter Dutton camp did not in fact spend last night butting its collective head against a ceiling of 40 signatures. That would ensure the proposed party room meeting goes ahead at noon; it is not clear Turnbull will be able to head off organisational pressure to have the situation resolved in any case. If so, a leadership ballot will proceed between Peter Dutton, Scott Morrison and Julie Bishop. The situation is fluid, but the prevailing view seems to be that Bishop will be excluded after a first round vote, setting up a decisive showdown between Dutton and Morrison. A lot may depend on the Solicitor-General’s advice on Dutton’s Section 44 issue, expected this morning.

It also appears to established that this will be immediately followed by Malcolm Turnbull resigning from parliament, and Nationals MP Kevin Hogan moving to the cross-bench. Hogan would continue voting with confidence and supply, but Turnbull’s absence could cause other votes to be lost if the cross bench was united against the government, unless Labor granted a pairing arrangement. Then there is the question of a by-election in Wentworth, which would not be a foregone conclusion for the Liberals – particularly, one suspects, if Dutton is leader. Labor was starting to look almost competitive in the seat before Turnbull made his mark there; failing that, there would seem to be a strong chance of a conservative independent emerging. While there will undoubtedly be a clamour for an early election, the scale of the Liberals’ unreadiness for one suggests it will not be so early as to preclude the need for the by-election.

Poll news:

• A ReachTEL poll for the CFMEU finds 55.5% rating themselves less likely to vote Liberal if Peter Dutton was leader, compared with 22.9% for more likely and 21.5% for no difference. A question on preferred Liberal leader had Peter Dutton on just 10.2%, behind Turnbull on 38.1%, Julie Bishop on 29.2%, Tony Abbott on 14.0% and Scott Morrison on 8.6%. This is consistent with other such polling of recent times, though perhaps a little stronger for Julie Bishop. On voting intention, Labor led 53-47; we haven’t had a ReachTEL poll from Sky News for three months now, but the last one had Labor leading 52-48. After allocating results of a forced response question for the undecided, the primary votes are Coalition 36.1%, Labor 35.0%, Greens 10.8% and One Nation 9.0%. The poll was conducted Wednesday night from a sample of 2430.

• Further bolstering Julie Bishop’s claim is another Morgan SMS poll, finding her favoured 64-36 over Bill Shorten as preferred prime minister, while Shorten held a bare 50.5-49.5 lead over Scott Morrison. The poll was conducted yesterday from a sample of 1126. Unlike Wednesday’s poll, which matched Bill Shorten against Malcolm Turnbull (unfavourably) and Peter Dutton (favourably), this one did not include an undecided option. Bishop’s lead was fairly consistent across the age spectrum, whereas Morrison did much better among older respondents.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

1,025 comments on “The spilling season”

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  5. morrison could beat shorten. It really depends on how unified the libs pretend to be and the level of murdoch and other msm support. I think many lib and swing voters will feel they can trust morrison.

  7. Surely, ScoMo has to rush to the polls behind a “united team” before the Right can white-ant him and he has to refer Dutton?

  11. Scott Morrison is a buffoon. He reminds me a lot of Joe Hockey.

    Bill Shorten must be the happiest person in Canberra today!

  12. SF _ The party has too much baggage. But I don’t see ScoMo doing very well among traditional christian groups for a start. He’s had three years as exposure as Treasurer and his poll numbers are in the toilet.

  20. Just a little warning: It’s possible the Libs might get a short-term honeymoon polling bounce, new sheets on the bed and all. Don’t panic if that happens. It’s just short-term and will most likely not carry to the election.

  23. Dutton would have been better for Shorten but worse for the country.

    ScoMo will do a pretty good Dutton impersonation. It isnt hard.

  24. There might actually be a honeymoon for ScoMo. Perhaps more of a relief rally.
    The Liberal party will still hit the iceberg of One Nation at the next election.

  25. So, the war is not over yet; the triple A rated Abbott, Andrews & Abetz have not quite got the upper hand they sought.
    Expect some further white-anting from them but also Murdoch, Alan Jones & Ray Hadley.
    They will never be satisfied till they own what they consider to be THEIR party and no one else’s.

  27. The compromise candidate has won!. Congratulations Jim Hacker, er, Scott Morrison. 45-40 shows a truly united Liberal team, behind a strong and decisive leader.

    The official photo:

  28. RL – When voters get to the ballot box, all pity will be removed from their souls and they will be squinting like Clint Eastwood.

  29. I punched the air. The idea of a QLD copper as PM was giving me nightmares. Not joking.

    Great result for the ALP, because the Dutton/ Abbott camp won’t accept this result

  30. Bill Shorten
    ‏Verified account @billshortenmp
    13m13 minutes ago

    Liberals: more division, more chaos, more cuts.

    Labor: stable, united, 100% focused on delivering for you and your family.

  31. Polling might have a ‘relief rally’ that Dutton is not PM, but it will be hard for ScoMo to keep a lid on the loon wing and their media mates

  33. Dutton might be rabid but his policy changes around slowing population growth etc imo had more of a potential to be an electoral dark horse than Scomo.

  36. Scott Morrison wins, will become new prime minister
    Scott Morrison has won the leadership contest and will become the next prime minister of Australia.

    He attracted 45 votes to Peter Dutton’s 40.

    An extraordinary result, given the events of the last week were brought on by Dutton and the conservative wing of the party.

  40. Rational Leftist @ #877 Friday, August 24th, 2018 – 1:09 pm

    Just a little warning: It’s possible the Libs might get a short-term honeymoon bounce, new sheets on the bed and all. Don’t panic if that happens. It’s just short-term and will most likely not carry to the election.

    Not bloody likely.

    “A question on preferred Liberal leader had Peter Dutton on just 10.2%, behind Turnbull on 38.1%, Julie Bishop on 29.2%, Tony Abbott on 14.0% and Scott Morrison on 8.6%.”

    The party has literally installed the least-popular option. You don’t get a honeymoon bounce for that.

  44. i dunno P1, i think Bill would def have preferred Dutton

    Dutton will be murderous at Turnbull for giving ScoMo a chance to get the numbers, turns out his only chance was yesterday – but he never had majority support in the party.

    Bishop stays as FM? Porter/Frydenburg or Cormann for treasurer? Dutton to stay in Cabinet? Abbott getting a gig (prob should just to keep the peace)?

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