The spilling season

A review of the situation as it appeared overnight, plus polling suggesting voters would far prefer Bishop to Dutton if they really can’t have Turnbull.

“The Herald Sun understands Peter Dutton has reached 43 names and the petition will be presented to the Prime Minister tomorrow morning calling for a leadership spill”, runs the one indication I am aware of that the Peter Dutton camp did not in fact spend last night butting its collective head against a ceiling of 40 signatures. That would ensure the proposed party room meeting goes ahead at noon; it is not clear Turnbull will be able to head off organisational pressure to have the situation resolved in any case. If so, a leadership ballot will proceed between Peter Dutton, Scott Morrison and Julie Bishop. The situation is fluid, but the prevailing view seems to be that Bishop will be excluded after a first round vote, setting up a decisive showdown between Dutton and Morrison. A lot may depend on the Solicitor-General’s advice on Dutton’s Section 44 issue, expected this morning.

It also appears to established that this will be immediately followed by Malcolm Turnbull resigning from parliament, and Nationals MP Kevin Hogan moving to the cross-bench. Hogan would continue voting with confidence and supply, but Turnbull’s absence could cause other votes to be lost if the cross bench was united against the government, unless Labor granted a pairing arrangement. Then there is the question of a by-election in Wentworth, which would not be a foregone conclusion for the Liberals – particularly, one suspects, if Dutton is leader. Labor was starting to look almost competitive in the seat before Turnbull made his mark there; failing that, there would seem to be a strong chance of a conservative independent emerging. While there will undoubtedly be a clamour for an early election, the scale of the Liberals’ unreadiness for one suggests it will not be so early as to preclude the need for the by-election.

Poll news:

• A ReachTEL poll for the CFMEU finds 55.5% rating themselves less likely to vote Liberal if Peter Dutton was leader, compared with 22.9% for more likely and 21.5% for no difference. A question on preferred Liberal leader had Peter Dutton on just 10.2%, behind Turnbull on 38.1%, Julie Bishop on 29.2%, Tony Abbott on 14.0% and Scott Morrison on 8.6%. This is consistent with other such polling of recent times, though perhaps a little stronger for Julie Bishop. On voting intention, Labor led 53-47; we haven’t had a ReachTEL poll from Sky News for three months now, but the last one had Labor leading 52-48. After allocating results of a forced response question for the undecided, the primary votes are Coalition 36.1%, Labor 35.0%, Greens 10.8% and One Nation 9.0%. The poll was conducted Wednesday night from a sample of 2430.

• Further bolstering Julie Bishop’s claim is another Morgan SMS poll, finding her favoured 64-36 over Bill Shorten as preferred prime minister, while Shorten held a bare 50.5-49.5 lead over Scott Morrison. The poll was conducted yesterday from a sample of 1126. Unlike Wednesday’s poll, which matched Bill Shorten against Malcolm Turnbull (unfavourably) and Peter Dutton (favourably), this one did not include an undecided option. Bishop’s lead was fairly consistent across the age spectrum, whereas Morrison did much better among older respondents.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

1,025 comments on “The spilling season”

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  1. if turnbull was intelligent, morrison is …..

    he is terrible at public speaking, economics, and promoted way above his competence

    turnbull should be punished for dealing and aiding right wing in this country, indeed creating it and acting as its soft front

    hope morrison goes off rails of moderation – without turnbull he well might so he will so puffed up with the lord’s will, the anointed one

  2. Scott Morrison is a definitely a “save the furniture” especially for those safer Liberal seats in Melbourne and Sydney with a fair number of ministers or future minister material.

  3. So who goes into the Cabinet?

    Dutton? Will he accept a position if offered? Likewise for Abbott? Cormann? Cash ?

    If they decline, then the conflict will resume immediately….

    Will Morrison name a moderate cabinet, since they are his reliable backers?

  4. #ReachTEL Poll Preferred LIB Leader (L/NP voters): Turnbull 53.5 Abbott 15.5 Dutton 12.5 Bishop 11.9 Morrison 6.6 #auspol

    LMAO. Mr 6.6% is now our Prime Minister.

    So much for saving the furniture (which is likely to be wrecked by the Duttonites anyway).

    Might be time to start a Libspill IV sweep based on how long Prime Morrison lasts before being challenged.

  5. lol Tony Burke

    Next time you hear the Liberals and Nationals complain about Australian unions, just remember: Today they voted to stop parliament and walk off the job because they didn’t like their boss. #auspol #unions— Tony Burke (@Tony_Burke) 23 August 2018

  6. There will be a poll bounce relative to the chaos (55 labor).

    There will not be a bounce compared to when there was relatively stable turnbbull government (51.5 labor).

    53 labor seems likely for the first polls taken with all survey being after this time. Then may go up for labor if scomo is as apt a Pm as he was treasurer, or if Abbott starts wrecking. They may go down for labor if scomo overdelivers and the media get behind him

  7. Reading Peter Brent’s short article on Scott Morrison, I found this interesting.

    When it was leaked in 2011 that he had “urged the shadow cabinet to capitalise on the electorate’s growing concerns about ‘Muslim immigration,’ ‘Muslims in Australia’ and the ‘inability’ of Muslim migrants to integrate,” cynics suggested the leaker was none other than the shadow minister himself.

  8. Lets see the names printed for spill call and voting to keep the war rolling. Interesting that if 3 Libs had not jumped ship they would still have Turnbull. That will cause some retribution as well.

  9. morrison lacks skills personality and public rhetoric – he is shrill, illogical and uninformed – bill will come over better in public – morrison’s incompetence has been hidden in shadow of turnbull but now he will be on full display – he cannot manage the party let alone the economy – may this pack of non entities be dispatched starting with next poll

  10. Given the polling, I don’t think there will be much difference between PM Dutton and Morrison.
    Morrison isn’t a moderate, certainly not ‘centre right’.
    Just a slight more acceptable face than Dutton.
    He will be under pressure, like Turnbull to adopt right wing policies and appeal to the base ‘.

  11. “6 different Prime Ministerial Appointments in 10 years”

    Menzies, Holt, McEwen, Gorton, McMahon, Whitlam.

    Labor ended the churn!

  12. Menzies, Holt, McEwen, Gorton, McMahon, Whitlam.
    Labor ended the churn!
    ___________________

    McEwen was caretaker and Whitlam ended up in the churn too!

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