The spilling season

A review of the situation as it appeared overnight, plus polling suggesting voters would far prefer Bishop to Dutton if they really can’t have Turnbull.

“The Herald Sun understands Peter Dutton has reached 43 names and the petition will be presented to the Prime Minister tomorrow morning calling for a leadership spill”, runs the one indication I am aware of that the Peter Dutton camp did not in fact spend last night butting its collective head against a ceiling of 40 signatures. That would ensure the proposed party room meeting goes ahead at noon; it is not clear Turnbull will be able to head off organisational pressure to have the situation resolved in any case. If so, a leadership ballot will proceed between Peter Dutton, Scott Morrison and Julie Bishop. The situation is fluid, but the prevailing view seems to be that Bishop will be excluded after a first round vote, setting up a decisive showdown between Dutton and Morrison. A lot may depend on the Solicitor-General’s advice on Dutton’s Section 44 issue, expected this morning.

It also appears to established that this will be immediately followed by Malcolm Turnbull resigning from parliament, and Nationals MP Kevin Hogan moving to the cross-bench. Hogan would continue voting with confidence and supply, but Turnbull’s absence could cause other votes to be lost if the cross bench was united against the government, unless Labor granted a pairing arrangement. Then there is the question of a by-election in Wentworth, which would not be a foregone conclusion for the Liberals – particularly, one suspects, if Dutton is leader. Labor was starting to look almost competitive in the seat before Turnbull made his mark there; failing that, there would seem to be a strong chance of a conservative independent emerging. While there will undoubtedly be a clamour for an early election, the scale of the Liberals’ unreadiness for one suggests it will not be so early as to preclude the need for the by-election.

Poll news:

• A ReachTEL poll for the CFMEU finds 55.5% rating themselves less likely to vote Liberal if Peter Dutton was leader, compared with 22.9% for more likely and 21.5% for no difference. A question on preferred Liberal leader had Peter Dutton on just 10.2%, behind Turnbull on 38.1%, Julie Bishop on 29.2%, Tony Abbott on 14.0% and Scott Morrison on 8.6%. This is consistent with other such polling of recent times, though perhaps a little stronger for Julie Bishop. On voting intention, Labor led 53-47; we haven’t had a ReachTEL poll from Sky News for three months now, but the last one had Labor leading 52-48. After allocating results of a forced response question for the undecided, the primary votes are Coalition 36.1%, Labor 35.0%, Greens 10.8% and One Nation 9.0%. The poll was conducted Wednesday night from a sample of 2430.

• Further bolstering Julie Bishop’s claim is another Morgan SMS poll, finding her favoured 64-36 over Bill Shorten as preferred prime minister, while Shorten held a bare 50.5-49.5 lead over Scott Morrison. The poll was conducted yesterday from a sample of 1126. Unlike Wednesday’s poll, which matched Bill Shorten against Malcolm Turnbull (unfavourably) and Peter Dutton (favourably), this one did not include an undecided option. Bishop’s lead was fairly consistent across the age spectrum, whereas Morrison did much better among older respondents.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

1,025 comments on “The spilling season”

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  2. The culture war within the Liberal Party continues

    How did Morrison vote on SSM?

    The bad blood will continue to fester

    I understand that Sukkar is furious

    Vanstone?

    “A sandwich a week”

    There were 40 votes against Morrison and Vanstone now loading up on the Conservatives which will further flame the fires and shows the cancer of the division

    So Vanstone is attacking 40 of a Caucus of 85

    And there is the problem

    Media coverage is not touching the underlying issue

  3. Morrison will want to appear soft. Will he drop the offshore detention camps?

    He and Dutton have been telling us ad nauseam that you are soft if you close those camps. 🙂

  4. IF Morrison had any sense he would keep Dutton,Abbott…etc away from the ministry. They LOST big time in this. Make them suffer.

  6. At least we don’t have to put up with the trendy, upper-middle class, Buzzfeed-reading, white liberal “leftists” gushing over Morrison, like they would have with Bishop (“girl power” and all) and they did with “silver fox” Turnbull.

  10. P1 – Newspoll would normally come this Sunday night:Monday morning and there’s an essential scheduled for Tuesday morning.

    Both should cover only the period after scomo was chosen. I think

  11. Quote from Dutton:

    “My course from here is to provide absolutely loyalty to Scott Morrison”

    _________________________________

    In other words, I can’t wait to get back to my office to start plotting.

  12. “Morrison emerges from the room, but doesn’t speak. He says he’ll address the nation later in the day”

    Will we be provided with a translator?

  15. Fulvio Sammut says:
    Friday, August 24, 2018 at 1:21 pm
    Goodbye Malcolm Turnbull, the Prime Minister that never was.

    ________________

    Yesterday, upon the stair,
    I met a man who wasn’t there
    He wasn’t there again today
    I wish, I wish he’d go away…

  19. Sohar says:
    Friday, August 24, 2018 at 1:29 pm
    “Morrison emerges from the room, but doesn’t speak. He says he’ll address the nation later in the day”

    Will we be provided with a translator?

    _________________

    Will he be breathing through his ears, as usual?

  20. Don I can go one better:

    We passed upon the stair
    We spoke of was and when
    Although I wasn’t there
    He said I was his friend
    Which came as a surprise
    I spoke into his eyes
    I thought you died alone
    A long long time ago

  22. “Morrison emerges from the room, but doesn’t speak. He says he’ll address the nation later in the day”

    Will we be provided with a translator?
    __________________________________

    More likely, pre-recorded and replayed at half speed.

  24. Bob Katter, Keith Pitt, David Littleproud and Russell Broadbent were the only MPs to vote against the marriage equality bill.

  26. guytaur says:
    Friday, August 24, 2018 at 1:27 pm
    Morrison will want to appear soft. Will he drop the offshore detention camps?

    He and Dutton have been telling us ad nauseam that you are soft if you close those camps.

    There is no chance whatsoever that indefinite offshore detention will be changed by Morrison. None. Whatsoever. M will have to appease the Right lest, like they have just done to Turnbull, they tear him limb from limb.

    Abbott could not bring himself to declare support for Morrison. He instead spoke of their custody of a tradition….which is code for “This is not over.” The war continues.

  31. > Dan Gulberry

    LMAO. Mr 6.6% is now our Prime Minister.

    So much for saving the furniture (which is likely to be wrecked by the Duttonites anyway).

    Might be time to start a Libspill IV sweep based on how long Prime Morrison lasts before being challenged

    Knowing them, they’ll quickly align behind the new default like nothing happened.

  32. ABC is boring now. All “unity” this, “they’re all good people” that.

    Can we cut to the NSW Libs and their impending faction warfare, the likes of which nobody has ever seen?

  37. Good summation by Katharine Murphy

    Down with Turnbull, up with Morrison, what next?
    Katharine Murphy
    I bumped into a conservative in the corridor on the way to the party room briefing. I expressed commiserations for the difficulties of the day. The MP said to me he was relieved that the brutal transaction would shortly be over. He said he was hopeful. I told him this seemed a strange emotion, in the circumstances.

    He said: “The party is taking the government back”.

    It’s a useful way of expressing what’s happened over the past couple of weeks – the ritual banishment of the outsider, Malcolm Turnbull– but the question is what party is taking what government back?

    The Liberal party is divided. So is the government. This has been the most vicious leadership contest of them all. Australian politics, and all who watch it, have touched the depths of despair over the course of the past week.

    By electing Scott Morrison as leader, the Liberal party is attempting to bridge the divide with a candidate who began his career as a moderate and morphed into a conservative.
    That truce, to me, looks entirely uneasy.

    With the Dutton push, conservatives have attempted to impose their authority on the Liberal party, seizing it from moderates with the objective of crushing them and consigning the Turnbull experiment to history.

    It was a battle of brute force, not of diplomacy and persuasion. It was about an assertion of power – a statement of who should wield it, and even more importantly, who shouldn’t wield it.

    They’ve lost the battle, at least in this round.

    In the end, they were outflanked, and Turnbull used his last hours in office to help deliver the hammer blow.

    Now that it’s done, there will be talk of healing. I’m sure there will be healing gestures.
    But this has been politics at its most brutal. The Australian public have watched, and they won’t forget it.

    Now for the reckoning, internally and externally.

    The Guardian blog

  39. So now Shorten has seen off PM Abbott and Turnbull, led in 39 polls, lost an election by only a couple of seats… etc…will the CPG describe him as the most successful opposition leader ever, like they did Abbott???
    I suspect not.

  41. Van Badham‏Verified account @vanbadham · 48m48 minutes ago

    Jesus Christ. A man who couldn’t win a democratic preselection for his own seat has been made Prime Minister. Congratulations, Liberal Party. Your judgment, as usual, represents you entirely. #auspol #libspill

    We also know which energy policy Morrison will support, It’s COAL.
    I wonder what Frydenberg really thinks about that.

  42. What odds Morrison is PM today because
    1. Turnbull threatened to resign Wentworth if Dutton won, and
    2. Turnbull cast doubt on Dutton’s eligibility for parliament.

  43. Watching the ABC you almost get the feeling that the only political party in Australia is the LNP.

    At least Cassidy acknowledged the only winner today was Bill Shorten.

  44. Labor dodged a bullet with Julies. does anyone know how many votes she got?

    Morgan: Liberal Leadership contenders vs. Opposition Leader Bill Shorten

    Julie Bishop (64%) cf. Bill Shorten (36%).

    Malcolm Turnbull (54%) cf. Bill Shorten (46%).

    Bill Shorten (50.5%) cf. Scott Morrison (49.5%).

    Bill Shorten (62%) cf. Peter Dutton (38%).

    All ‘can’t say’ and ‘don’t know’ responses have been removed from these results to make them directly comparable.

  49. Welcome back Wayne. I see your great PM Turnbull has been replaced with another great PM. I’ll be sure to bet the other way on any comment you make. Cheers buddy.

  50. “Greg the Lyin’ Hunt has told ScoMo he voted for him”

    In an alternative universe a nanometer distant through higher dimensions, Hunt’s telling Dutton he voted for him.

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