The two new polls this week, from Newspoll and Essential Research, were very slightly at the high end of the Coalition’s form, causing them to nudge up by 0.3% on the BludgerTrack two-party projection. Other than that, the main news in BludgerTrack is that the seat projections are now running off post-redistribution margins (which you can read all about in the post below), and the state data from Ipsos last week has been mixed in to the state calculations. Compared with last week, the Coalition is up one on the national seat projection, making gains in Victoria and Western Australia and dropping one in Queensland. Leadership numbers from Newspoll have added further emphasis to the upturn in his personal ratings, despite the apparently static picture on voting intention.
Full results through the link below.
PhoenixRed
A combination of all three
https://www.greenleft.org.au/content/its-time-abolish-border-force
MSNBC’s Sharpton reveals that Michael Cohen agreed to interview with him to send signal to both ‘Trump and prosecutors’
The Reverend Al Sharpton had breakfast with former Trump fixer Michael Cohen this morning.
Cohen is a former Democrat, Sharpton pointed out, and someone he’s known for 20 years.
On Friday night, Sharpton went on MSNBC to discuss the meeting.
“I received a text from him saying he wanted to meet,” Sharpton said. “We met at a public restaurant and we spoke for over an hour. He was very troubled and felt in many ways cast wrongly. And I feel he was saying that he had been abandoned by Mr. Trump.”
Sharpton said that Cohen did not get into specifics, but gave the impression that he was going to come forward and divulge Trump’s secrets.
“He kept saying to me over and over again, ‘Rev, I am going to do what is right for the country and what is right for my family,’” Sharpton said. “He was adamant that he was opposed to things that Mr. Trump was doing.”
https://www.rawstory.com/2018/07/msnbcs-sharpton-reveals-cohen-agreed-interview-send-signal-trump-prosecutors/
Victoria says: Saturday, July 21, 2018 at 11:24 am PhoenixRed
A combination of all three
*******************************************
My thoughts exactly …..
Barney IDG
Dastyari was being influenced and in return had some of his bills paid by the benefactor in question.
Remember roughly 50,000.
Which after it was exposed, he offered to give it to charity. Too late. Bye Felicia
Anyhoo. Dastyari had paid the price for his stupidity
A sitting Republican speaks out against Trump. One of few to do so.
https://www.nytimes.com/2018/07/19/opinion/trump-russia-putin-republican-congress.html
Fess
Only a few are speaking out cos the rest of them are comprised. Having said that, I still expect a few democrats to be as well
“But then the last straw was giving his Chinese agent of influence the heads up that Australian security maybe listening in. Which begs the question, who was Dastyari being loyal to”
I think you might be bringing a few facts of your own here. Did Dastyari know that the Australian security was listening in? All I’ve read suggests he did not KNOW that Australian security was listening in. If he did not know then he can’t really give a ‘heads up’ can he? A heads up is when you know. Lets think about this a little.
On the one hand you’ve got an outspoken Australian Senator who has taken a policy stand against his own party in a international / national security issue. An area of policy where the ALP’s tactic is to hide terrified and never ever express any view of any idea that doesn’t align 100% with what the LNP are doing and saying.
The policy issue relates to a massive area of contention between China and the US. There has already been a domestic bruhahah over Sam’s relationship with China.
On the other hand you have a Chinese national suspected of being an agent of the Chinese Government and essentially buying Australian friends.
Stick with me, but wouldn’t the logical conclusion be that both Sam and the Chinese dude would have been assuming that Australian, US and Chinese intel might be listening. Sam didn’t give any real ‘heads up’ he just said what they both were thinking.
I remember a time in WA when Labor pollies would routinely say lets go outside and discuss this. The assumption was the WA CCC had most of the phones bugged. In hindsight most of them probably weren’t the CCC wasn’t that well resourced, but it was a standing assumption / joke. So when one ALP staffer smiled at another and said lets take this outside they were just as likely to be talking about whether or not they liked a bit of impact play during sex, or whether any of the LC members were sleeping with the partner they were with at the start of the term. And yeah neither of them were giving the other a heads up about the CCC listening.
If Dastyari knew Australian intel was listening and neither of them had any reason to suspect anyone else would be interested in listening then yeah I’m wrong it was a heads up.
But if they were both just in the national and international spotlight and assuming multiple agenies were probably listening in (as they probably were) then it isn’t a headsup it is a poor joke.
Obviously it was also a race-laden political card for the Govt to deliberately leak and it was a very effective one, it got rid of Sam and has all sorts of people believing quite absurd things.
Victoria @ #159 Saturday, July 21st, 2018 – 8:27 am
Dastyari received donations which were all properly declared, i.e. all completely transparent.
He broke no rules regarding donations and the issue was, that there was a perception, that this was not right.
WWP
It was quite effective cos it was true and the Intelligence community used the opportunity to send a message to all of them
You want to be a Pollie and represent Australia, don’t get bought by influence.
“Dastyari had paid the price for his stupidity”
Yeah nah Dastyari is stupid but he isn’t the stupid that mattered, the stupid that mattered was the stupid that believed the Govt’s deliberate targeted incomplete questionable intel leak that was the heart of Get Sam 2. And that stupid was wide spread across Australia and that stupid was in part at least powered by racism.
Barney IDG
So what properly declaring
a quid.pro.quo.payment
He got benefactor to pay 40000 legal bill for him.and on return Dastyari have a speech contrary to his own party on South China sea
This matter is done and dusted. Luckily most people have forgotten this embarrassing blunder
Barney IDG
It wasn’t right. His own party thought so too
Victoria @ #166 Saturday, July 21st, 2018 – 8:39 am
Including you.
The legal fees related to a matter before he entered Parliament and were a considerable time before the speech.
“It was quite effective cos it was true and the Intelligence community used the opportunity to send a message to all of them”
Your unshakable trust in the LNP Govt dodgy leaking of dodgy information is touching, wonderful, breathtaking. I’m just not that trusting.
If this was about foreign influence what about the rivers of money into the LNP, what about the Rolexes, the phones state and fed politicians are getting, the trips to China.
Foreign influence is not a new thing, it is not a surprising thing, it isn’t even necessarily a bad thing, so long as it is understood and managed.
The whole one unimportant idiot senator as the only polly to be touched by foreign influence, or even if you assume China is evil and all the other countries trying to do it are all good, Chinese influence, as a conclusion it is out there, there were more convincing X-file episodes.
I am fed up with the the beat up of the in relation to the “Super Saturday” election from a swag of the media.
The concept of making 5 by-elections as some kind of bench mark on either Labor or the LNP is rubbish. For the most part, the elections are seen as yet another “test” for Bill Shorten – but why not “test” for Malcolm Turnbull is beyond me?
Seen from a Labor point of view, the loss of a couple of by-elections when the polls are generally in Labor’s favour would be a disappointment. However, the banshee stuff from the media about “leadership issues” for Shorten are self-manufactured by the media itself.
Meanwhile, from the LNP side, the white flag went up the mast when the elections were announced. Firstly, the LNP were disinclined to even put candidates up in 2/5 of the by elections – much to the annoyance of the LNP supporters in the Perth electorate who thought they had a chance.
In Mayo, having decided to have a dynastic born-to-rule candidate, matters seem to have gone from bad to terrible with, according to a string of polls, the Downer woman likely to be thumped.
Which brings us back to the two margin seats which according to the LNP and their friendly media, will be the death knell of Shorten’s leadership if Labor loses one or both of these.
I see, just recently, that while anything is possible, the LNP are running the white flag up just that little higher in these latter two seats.
What intrigues me is just what sort of “test” is there for Turnbull if Mayo becomes the thumping the polls suggest and the other two are secured by Labor? I would suggest if the outcome turns but to be status quo as it were the media will forget “Super Saturday” within minutes of the results and other than that, the sounds of crickets only.
And in Dastyari’s own words.
I seriously f@@ked up
End of story
Victoria @ #171 Saturday, July 21st, 2018 – 8:47 am
You still haven’t pointed to anything outside the political that he did wrong. 🙂
WWP
A fine example is Andrew Robb. But of course he left politics, so just some hot air
Expended on the subject and that was it
“And in Dastyari’s own words.
I seriously f@@ked up
End of story”
I remember the ABC replying to my official complaint that the were calling the Gillard carbon mechanism a carbon tax and that as a question of fact it was not, so they were publishing false facts. Their response, which the above reminded me of, was that Gillard had said it could be called a carbon tax so that was all the excuse they needed to keep publishing a false facts. End of story.
I should be a story teller all these people lining up to believe the stories with an evangelist’s fervour and faith.
Barney IDG
If he did nothing wrong, he would still be a senator.
It’s not as if Labor were in government. They could have fought this out. They didn’t. They could even have suggested he stand down until there was a full inquiry into the matter so he could be exonerated.
What a bunch of conspiratists
zoomster @ #128 Saturday, July 21st, 2018 – 10:38 am
There is hypocrisy and stupidity. There is a difference.
The Greens have also gone quiet on Fremantle and Perth. Those by-elections have received very little media coverage.
Victoria @ #175 Saturday, July 21st, 2018 – 8:53 am
Hilarious!
I’m the one saying it was simple politics and I’m meant to be a conspiratist.
You’ve been following Trump too closely, it’s effecting you!!! 🙂 🙂 🙂 🙂 🙂
WeWantPaul @ #158 Saturday, July 21st, 2018 – 11:31 am
WWP
Sorry to damage your reputation on this blog but I agree 100%.
Barney IDG
No you are saying that Dastyari was an innocent victim in partisan politics. You are the one bathing in conspiracy.
You always take the time to remind me every now and then that the whole Trump fiasco has been a figment of my fervoured imagination.
And of course everything Trump says and does is irrelevant
Hence why I don’t take your views very seriously at all
WeWantPaul @ #162 Saturday, July 21st, 2018 – 11:08 am
Yes, and no.
Factoring in that stupid, and the ruthless exploitation of it by your Tory political opponents, is a core component of the Politics 101 Manual for all pollies and activists to the left of the Tories.
Non-Tories have never had, and never will have the luxury of these kind of failures. Only Tories get the benefit of the doubt on these things.
Whatever his talents, and wherever his true loyalties lie, Dastyari did it to himself, and simply had to go. Labor made the right choice, the only sane choice they had on the table. If they had kept him on he would have been an open target for ongoing and baseless, but effective anti-Labor smears.
Do we really have to do the whole Dastyari thing over again? It was done to death last time.
Now you’ve got DTT started.
And that’s when the REAL conspiracy theories come out! 😆
Dog not afraid to take comments, same with Amy yesterday, but Katharine hates being challenged.
https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2018/jul/21/its-the-australian-values-test-for-new-immigrants-get-it-right-or-get-in-the-van#comment-118543471
Trump is poised to impose tariffs on virtually all Chinese exports to the US, and is progressively upending US-EU trade relations, while at the same time moving to lift sanctions on Russian business – that is, to lift sanctions imposed on firms in which Putin has either a direct or indirect financial interest.
https://www.reuters.com/article/us-g20-argentina-mnuchin-rusal-exclusive/exclusive-u-s-open-to-lifting-sanctions-off-aluminum-giant-rusal-mnuchin-idUSKBN1KA2VS
Trump is the dictator’s ensign. No doubt at all. Trump is a wholly-owned subsidiary of Putin Inc.
“Non-Tories have never had, and never will have the luxury of these kind of failures. Only Tories get the benefit of the doubt on these things.
Whatever his talents, and wherever his true loyalties lie, Dastyari did it to himself, and simply had to go. Labor made the right choice, the only sane choice they had on the table. If they had kept him on he would have been an open target for ongoing and baseless, but effective anti-Labor smears.”
I agree completely with your first paragraph and my advice to any would be non-tory would be along those lines.
It is for that very reason I object so strongly to your second paragraph. It is the political equivalent of you deserved to be groped/sexually assaulted because you wore a short skirt in a bar where anyone who wears a short skirt gets sexually assaulted / groped. Would I wear a short skirt to that bar, not in a million years but that doesn’t mean the problem is with the person who does, the problem is with the bar and the community and fighting the real wrong is so so important in both contexts.
Also I thought Shorten did the right thing 100% in Get Sam 1 and that he looked like a weak fool in Get Sam 2.
Darn
Agreed. I am bored to pieces.
Mind you the whole notion of it being racist etc. Is so dumb.
We are actually having by elections next week due to our sitting members not actually being Aust citizens at time of nominating etc.
For those on this blog espousing our Chinese and Russian friends, I ask how many foreign born people are in their govt representing their nations?
“WWP
Sorry to damage your reputation on this blog but I agree 100%.”
Wow, no not at all, mark me down for 1 post someone agreed with and lets hope it is the start of a beautiful thing (people in general agreeing I’m right, it should be a constant in life but it is all too rare).
Speaking of me being wrong I had this LNP idiot at work who literally argued that exaggerating a qualification on a social media tool, linked in, was a much worse offense than telling the electorate in an election campaign that you have a medal you don’t have at all. FMD.
Victoria @ #180 Saturday, July 21st, 2018 – 9:05 am
No one is innocent in politics and Sam certainly did things that allowed the Government to take advantage of it.
He is only innocent in that he broke no rules or laws that we know of.
I only see politics as I’ve said all along.
Were’s the conspiracy in that?
Sorry for hurting your feelings on Trump, however I’ve never said it was a “figment of your fervoured imagination” although you do use your imagination a lot when discussing it.
Kind of like looking for conspiracies! 🙂
briefly:
Yes it’s all so transparent.
I did laugh though that Trump’s MAGA hats are going to cost more because they are made in China.
Trump’s trade policies will bring very great long term damage to the US. He is inviting all those with whom the US trades to impose reciprocating tariff barriers. This will drive down US exports and drive up the cost of goods in the US. In the meantime, the rest of the world will continue to trade with each other on reciprocal most-favoured-nation terms. Growth in industrial output, trade, investment and real wages will be higher in the non-US economy than the US economy. This in itself will propel US-domiciled firms to relocate their production away from the US.
In the end, this will also drive a reduction in reliance on the USD as the preferred medium of exchange in the global economy.
Trump is forfeiting US leadership in strategic, diplomatic, political, economic and cultural terms. What is incredible is not that Trump is capable of this; but rather that the Republican party is capable of enabling it.
Barney IDG
So everything I have said about Trump over the past few years has been in my imagination? Seriously…..
Confessions says:
Saturday, July 21, 2018 at 12:28 pm
briefly:
Yes it’s all so transparent.
I did laugh though that Trump’s MAGA hats are going to cost more because they are made in China.
The incongruities are everywhere. Even so, Trump’s disapproval ratings have barely budged.
For those of you concerned I’m an agent of the Chinese Govt, including any actual agents of the Chinese govt, my call for a 1000 glorious years of Chinese rule was in jest.
However in exchange for a small island (with lightening fast internet, not the NBN) a large boat and I think USD$40MM I’m prepared to be that, or Russian, or Trumpist, or Mayist. Not Turnbull, you’ve got to have a minimum standard you won’t go below even for an island of your own.
For the small island (doesn’t even need to be tropical but out of the way of the worst of a global nuclear winter would be nice, so perhaps a small island off New Zealand, the other side not the Australian side) the large boat and the USD$40MM I’m prepared to embrace any philosophy, and idiot politician, with the exception of Malcolm. Perhaps a couple of political prisoners to do the maintenance on the island, cook the food, do the cleaning, that sort of thing, would sweeten the deal and make it a nicer place for you to drop into and check on your investment.
Well looky looky. We’ve had actual months (thanks to the genius Trumble setting the by election date to fuck with Labor’s Nat Con) of how the Gubbies were gunna win one of the by elections and how that meant Shorten was for the chop.
But one week out, and it’s all ‘yeah nah, we woz never in front, Labor’s favourites…’. On top of, ‘don’t worry ’bout Mayo, we’ll get it at the GE’ (when the demographics are less Lib friendly thanks to the redistribution – so yeah nah, only a dope like Coorey would fall for that spin).
It’s been bullshit from the start. Labor and Sharkie have been short odds favourites to hold since day one for the simple reason they ain’t in the government and the government has been in the polling doghouse since the day it scraped over the line at the last GE. But we have a contemptible joke of a media, so of course that story couldn’t work as a narrative. No drama in that. And no way to push Brian’s barrow.
The funniest bit though of course is Trumble explicitly stating next Saturday is head to head. Trumble or Shorten. Trumble’s give aways to the top end (sorry lower taxes and more jobs ) or fairness (sorry death by taxes, death by unions, death by African Gangs, death by (insert Liberal Party scare du jour) ).
He’s up there in Longman today apparently. Blaming Bill for all the world’s ills. Lovingly lapped up and disseminated by all his shills. What a master of the political arts is the Trumble.
Of course the media will do their best to pretend it never happened, but Brian, you are handing them their stories for the first week of August on a platter. When Trumble walks away with nothing next Saturday will the media write how the great and miraculous Shorten has (once again) overcome all his doubters and seen off Albo for good? Of course not – that would require them to at least tacitly admit all their Kill Bill shit for the last 5 years was a fraud on their readers/viewers. Not going to happen.
No, much easier to write it up as another massive Trumble fuck up. It will be more in sorrow of course, and require a bit of pretending they haven’t been pumping his tyres forever, but easy enough to unleash some internal chatter, a bit of Abbott meddling, a slice of Dutton mobilising. They’ll have the Skynoos and Oz loons going off their collective trees to attack Trumble for his failure to reinforce the narrative. A good solid dose of how Brian is as popular as cancer in Queensland and LNP chooks running around with their heads cut off in panic trying to work out which of them are the 9 heading for the dole queue if something doesn’t change will be the icing on the cake.
Trumble has gone all in. If he flukes a win next Saturday he’ll be hailed a genius and the game really will have changed. But these ‘oh we’re the underdogs’ reports coming out now after building up the prospect of Labor losing one of Longman or Braddon for weeks aren’t the expectation management of a team that thinks they’re about to blow the game apart.
And the reason is simple. Trumble needed Kill Bill just to hang on after the budget flopped.
The ALP dual citz was a straw he clung to with all the desperation of a man in the political reality Brian’s in. Naturally his media fluffers jumped into the water to help out their guy. He desperately dragged out the by election campaigns to try and create an alternate reality when the guy who’s up for 36 straight Newspolls is the guy in danger of being rolled. It was a sliver of a chance and Trumble has bet the house on it, because he has run out of time and options. This was his black swan chance. But if real reality doesn’t support the last two month’s narrative? The narrative has to die. Our media hate only two things more than giving the ALP a fair shake – hard work and not having a narrative. So they’ll jump on the easiest narrative available. And the easiest narrative will be all bad for Brian.
Victoria @ #192 Saturday, July 21st, 2018 – 9:32 am
For an educated person your comprehension skills are often lacking.
Briefly
Trump’s numbers will budge when the extent of his crimes become fully exposed. It won’t be pretty
phoenixRED says:
Saturday, July 21, 2018 at 11:22 am
There are 3 theories that explain why Trump sucks up to Putin — but which one makes the most sense?
The 4th theory is that all of the first 3 apply.
Barney IDG
You stated that I use my imagination a lot and looking for conspiracies.
Pretty clear to me what you were intimating. Unless you can tell me which part was using my imagination and looking for conspiracies.
Followup
I’m happy for it to be a corporate island, for example Nestle could give me the island, the large boat and the $40MM, that would be fine, just so long as they aren’t making or flogging their product anywhere near my island.
WWP
“I remember the ABC replying to my official complaint that the were calling the Gillard carbon mechanism a carbon tax and that as a question of fact it was not, so they were publishing false facts. Their response, which the above reminded me of, was that Gillard had said it could be called a carbon tax so that was all the excuse they needed to keep publishing a false facts. End of story.”
yes, that is something that annoys me when I see it published, it never was a tax and I thought why does the ABC continue calling it a tax when they pride themselves on being trusted as a news source and thought writing in myself.
That is a disappointing response but is an easy way to pick the liberal shills in the ABC, there are still those who take the ABC charter seriously and call it a carbon price not a tax.
It also contrasts with the way they subject labor claims to fact check, but not their own reporting.
Victoria says:
Saturday, July 21, 2018 at 12:36 pm
Briefly
Trump’s numbers will budge when the extent of his crimes become fully exposed. It won’t be pretty
I guess we’ll soon see. The ignorance and the hate factors are very high in the US. Trump has many bottles with many genies in them. He seems ready to open them at will.
“That is a disappointing response but is an easy way to pick the liberal shills in the ABC, there are still those who take the ABC charter seriously and call it a carbon price not a tax.”
Yeah for me that response, that level of shallowness, the complete acceptance that politics is just a sporting match with no absolute references at all dragged me over the line into the #theirABC camp. Then the Nick Ross stuff really hammered it home. It may be the best we’ve got in Australia, but it is still very very poor and largely captured by the propaganda units of the fox empire in Australia.