BludgerTrack: 52.0 to 48.0 to Labor

More of the same from the BludgerTrack poll aggregate, with the Coalition’s voting intention trend lagging behind Malcolm Turnbull’s personal ratings.

The two new polls this week, from Newspoll and Essential Research, were very slightly at the high end of the Coalition’s form, causing them to nudge up by 0.3% on the BludgerTrack two-party projection. Other than that, the main news in BludgerTrack is that the seat projections are now running off post-redistribution margins (which you can read all about in the post below), and the state data from Ipsos last week has been mixed in to the state calculations. Compared with last week, the Coalition is up one on the national seat projection, making gains in Victoria and Western Australia and dropping one in Queensland. Leadership numbers from Newspoll have added further emphasis to the upturn in his personal ratings, despite the apparently static picture on voting intention.

Full results through the link below.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

951 comments on “BludgerTrack: 52.0 to 48.0 to Labor”

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  1. Victoria @ #85 Saturday, July 21st, 2018 – 6:32 am

    Barney IDG

    Chinese influence in our politics is not a partisan issue. It is a real and present problem. You can dismiss it all you like. I get that the fact Dastyari was vocal on the banks etc. but guess what the Banking Royal Commission proceeded with or without him being in the senate. And those I am connected to within the banking industry have said that the banks have scrambled to clean up their acts. So despite it feeling like this Royal Commission is a toothless tiger, it is having a serious impact on our vulture banks.

    I’m in no way dismissing foreign interference and that we need to act to prevent it.

    I’m pointing out that here it was used as purely a political tool.

    If it was otherwise why have the leak and Sam’s “spying” not been dealt with?

  3. Victoria says: Saturday, July 21, 2018 at 9:44 am

    phoenixRed

    I thought the Manafort case was adjourned to a later date?

    ***************************************************

    I think the original date was July 10 but Judge Ellis postponed it till the 24th – will go check

    Paul Manafort’s trial in Virginia pushed back to July 24

    The federal judge in Paul Manafort’s trial in Virginia has rescheduled the former Trump campaign chairman’s trial, pushing it back two weeks to July 24.

    Judge T.S. Ellis said the delay is “owing to a family member’s medical procedure,” without providing further details. He had initially set the trial date for July 10.

    https://edition.cnn.com/2018/05/25/politics/paul-manafort-trial-date-pushed-back/index.html

  4. Bill Shorten !!… Bill Shorten !!… Bill Shorten !!… Bill Shorten !!… Bill Shorten !!…Bill Shorten !!…
    Just listening to Trumble. Bill Shorten higher taxes, boat people, Union Thugs, smugglers, riots, mass murder, Union Thugs 457 visas ….Bill Shorten !!… Bill Shorten !!… Bill Shorten !!…
    Vote Big trev.

  5. Turnbull throwing the whole bucket and dirty contents at Bill Shorten (voice of contempt).
    ABC giving him plenty of time to dish the dirt. Taxes, immigration, unions, the works.

  11. If Turnbull is trying to persuade the fine voters of Longman … he’s not making any headway. They’re all watching the footy.

  14. zoomster @ #94 Saturday, July 21st, 2018 – 9:41 am

    dtt

    ‘Her comment was “I could not follow your complex reasoning but I know there was an argument in there”’

    Oh, yes – that’s a common error, mistaking an inability to follow an argument with complexity.

    My father used to say, “If you can’t convince them, confuse them” – in other words, if you know your argument’s weak, go for complexity.

    I don’t think you do it on purpose, however.

    Or the other explanation Zoomster. Life is complex. reducing messages into 40 character twitter lines is for Donald Trump, not serous people. Pauline Hanson can also distill down messaged very effectively. I assume you favour three word slogans like Tony Abbott.

    I have no patience with people who disguise their own lack of willingness to follow an argument by saying – “too complex” Bit like that famous comment in the movie Amadeus. “too many notes”

    Anyway

    I am not going to spend all day on here.

  15. Victoria says: Saturday, July 21, 2018 at 9:52 am

    PhoenixRed

    thanks. That is only in a few days time!

    *******************************************************

    and I think any sympathy Judge Ellis had for Manafort was totally lost when Ellis learned he was smuggling e-mails out in his lawyers laptop …….

  16. “The experts support it, and we have to listen to the experts.”

    That’s because the experts (likely hand-picked?) recommended that they do what they had already decided to do. If they’d recommended something else the Government would find new “experts”.

  18. Guy Rundle’s latest in The Saturday Paper – Socialism’s newfound popularity:

    https://outline.com/Ven4RX

    In 2008 the system crashed – it has never really recovered. To millions, capitalism revealed itself. It’s no wonder a generation who came of age during the global financial crisis believe a system in which the production of the necessities of life is subject to public ownership and democratic control is the only one in which real human freedom can be achieved – and the only way in which the planet can be managed to avoid species catastrophe.

    This simple enthusiasm for socialism – by which people mean a mixed economy with rational feedback loops, in place of the liquid nitrogen-filled Mack truck careening towards the freeway fire that is capitalism – has panicked the right into a spiral towards authoritarianism. That’s why the movement that purports to stand for free minds and free markets fantasises about compulsory purchases of coal-fired power stations too valueless to sell, charges whistleblowers for espionage without a peep, and wants to use the state to crack down on universities offering the “wrong” lessons.

  19. 😮 No wonder they’re called Russian Troll Farms.

    On the eve of one of the newsiest days of the 2016 presidential election season, a group of Russian operatives fired off tweets at a furious pace, about a dozen each minute. By the time they finished, more than 18,000 had been sent through cyberspace toward unwitting American voters, making it the busiest day by far in a disinformation operation whose aftermath is still roiling U.S. politics.

    The reason for this burst of activity on Oct. 6, 2016, documented in a new trove of 3 million Russian tweets collected by Clemson University researchers, is a mystery that has generated intriguing theories but no definitive explanation.

    The theories attempt to make sense of how such a heavy flow of Russian disinformation might be related to what came immediately after, on Oct.7.

    This was the day when Wikileaks began releasing embarrassing emails that Russian intelligence operatives had stolen from the campaign chairman for Democrat Hillary Clinton, revealing sensitive internal conversations that would stir controversy for weeks.

    https://www.washingtonpost.com/technology/2018/07/20/russian-operatives-blasted-tweets-ahead-huge-news-day-during-presidential-campaign-did-they-know-what-was-coming/?utm_term=.150c26ca519d

  20. https://theconversation.com/when-whistleblowers-are-prosecuted-it-has-a-chilling-effect-on-press-freedom-in-australia-100008

    Fear is a tricky thing. It’s often hard to distinguish between what is real and perceived danger. US President Donald Trump, being more comfortable with autocrats than democratic leaders, is arguably a real danger to the world order.

    But a former Australian spook blowing the whistle on our spy agencies eavesdropping on an impoverished neighbour to gain advantage in a business deal? Embarrassing for the government, absolutely. But dangerous to national security? Really?
    :::::::
    A government that hunts down whistleblowers is on the slippery slope towards a police state in which press freedom will be under increasing pressure. Shooting the messenger is a tool used by autocrats and is not worthy of a mature liberal democracy.

  22. A slippery slope towards a police state aided and abetted by the political duopoly who have passed over 60 pieces of legislation relating to their ‘war on terrorism’.

  23. I think the whole Chinese fear factory is essentially about white supremacy.

    Yeah China and Putin both do nasty things with human rights, but we and the US are following their lead. But there is a strong ‘we are doing the nasty things to PoC’ across the US, Australia and parts of Europe (where maybe the far right wants to do nasty things more than actually are doing nasty things).

    I think Putin is now ‘dude of the month’ with western white supremacists because of his support for Trump. I’m pretty sure that in Russia it is more a ‘Russia first nobody second’ but I don’t know if they have racial politics within Russian society or not.

    But Russia is a basket case, Putin is literally holding on day by day. China on the other hand is massive and on the up, and they like their dynasties in the 1000s of years rather than the centuries. In a glorious Chinese millennia the real problem for your average white dude in the Australian media is that suddenly, in that frame he is just an annoying white minority that can be dispensed with. In much the same way as the US and Australia are now dispensing with PoC for racist political advantage.

    If Trump, Turnbull and Putin are your white supremacy choices, bring on 1000 years of Chinese glory I say.

  25. “Barney IDG
    Of course Dastyari is still walking the streets. He wasnt acting as a spy for China. goodness me
    So, why did he have to leave the Senate?
    Politics, nothing else!!! ”

    Worse than just politics it was the worst kind of racist politics, the nasty Chinese and this loud mouthed trouble making mongrel from the middle east, a white supremist’s wet dream to conflate the two and get rid of him. Found a very welcoming audience in the Australian media and the broader community. 5 racist stars.

  27. “A slippery slope towards a police state aided and abetted by the political duopoly who have passed over 60 pieces of legislation relating to their ‘war on terrorism’.”

    Serious question Peg, and I’ll start by agreeing 100% that at some point it is better to take a stand for what is right, to try and bend the moral arc of the universe towards good, even if it means you will lose. And I think that labor has not drawn this line soon enough, it should have picked a hill to oppose the racist refugee stuff before now – whatever that meant electorally.

    But is that the only choice every single time. Must one never ever be pragmatic. Is one never ever able to take a single step in the right direction when the finish line is a marathon away? Must one mark every little hill as a hill one must fight on unless the alternative drives the moral arc to across the full marathon distance to flawless perfection?

  28. Yeah China and Putin both do nasty things with human rights, but we and the US are following their lead.

    Yep. I didn’t get the memo about the “rules-based international system” that Simon Katich so naively insists is the primary determinant of western powers’ foreign policies.

    We need only look at the restrictions on whistleblowing in Australia – restrictions supported by the parliamentary ALP – to doubt the priority accorded to democratic values by nations that profess to hold those values dear.

    The cruel treatment of asylum-seekers seeking to reach Australia, aided and abetted again by the parliamentary ALP, calls into question the primacy of human rights in determining Australia’s policy positions at home and with regard to the rest of the world.

    The ECB’s, the EU’s, and the IMF’s destructive behaviour towards the Greek people, and their preference to help greedy bankers in Germany and France rather that fix the profound flaws in the Eurozone’s design, brings into stark relief the vast gap between the rhetoric and the reality of world politics.

  34. “I guess this four corners report was missed by some
    http://www.abc.net.au/4corners/power-and-influence-promo/8579844”

    That was kind of the start of the Chinese fear factory stuff. The best explanation I’ve heard is that the US commercial interests were worried about the rise of Chinese companies and one of the best ways to beat them commercially was to whip up a security fear to try and disqualify Chinese companies from bidding processes.

    Makes sense for the US intel community to leak some genuine and serious Chinese espionage to the gullible Aussie media, who aren’t smart enough to realise that countries spying and trying to win influence in other countries isn’t new and surprising and they are collectively dumb enough to accept that no one except the Chinese do it,.

    If it was all genuinely about the US / Australian / allies espionage systems being massively outwitted and outgunned by the Chinese (which is a real possibility) it wouldn’t be on the news, US sources, Australian intel wouldn’t be leaking to a list of weak minded Australian journos, but if they are aiming directly at Chinese commercial interests it makes complete sense.

    Obviously stronger cultural and social ties between Australia and China are a threat to the US in the longer term and racism is a massively effective tool in the US and Australia. So why wouldn’t you.

    One of those Chinese firms got a gig doing some kind of radio stuff along the trainline I use to get to work in WA. The media here tried for a evil Chinese beat up. But it just didn’t make sense. Why would Beijing care if the trains from Fremantle to Midland run on time. How is Australian national security compromised if Beijing knows the price of drugs in Midland and Freo? Just doesn’t make sense. But a US commercial self interest does make sense, because if they can win the work and don’t need their tenders to be competitive because the competitive tender is going to be disqualified they win twice, they get the work and they get their fat profit margins.

  35. https://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/2018/jul/21/1600-asylum-claims-could-be-reopened-due-to-poorly-drafted-regulation

    A poorly drafted government regulation from 16 years ago – and a court case that turned on what, precisely, makes a port – could re-open protection applications for more than 1,600 asylum seekers in Australia who “arrived” in Australia through Ashmore Reef. It could also expose the government to significant compensation payouts for unlawful detention.

    In 2002, then immigration minister Philip Ruddock gazetted the lagoon near West Island at Ashmore Reef to be a “proclaimed port” so that it could be excised from Australia’s migration zone. The effect of this was to bar any asylum seeker who entered Australia through Ashmore Reef from making a claim for permanent protection.

    But a court judgement, delivered in the federal circuit court this month – a full 16 years later – has found the minister had no power to do so.

    In order for the minister to declare something a proclaimed port, it must first be a port. And it was not.

    As Judge Justin Smith said: “the facts clearly establish that the relevant area was not a ‘port’. The area was an area of water within a reef. It was, it seems, navigable, but it was not disputed that the area was not, and could not be, used for the transfer of goods or passengers from vessels unless that transfer was to another vessel.”

  37. “You seem to think that Dastyari was an innocent victim of partisan politics.
    He was not”

    I don’t think he was innocent, no pollie is going to be innocent well before they get to Canberra and if one slips through the cracks they aren’t going to stay innocent 5 minutes. But yes the main difference between Dastyari and other politicians was race, and a willingness to take on vested interests. The LNP can take millions from Chinese interests and that is fine, this idiot took a few grand and he is a threat to national interest. Give me a break the only logical conclusion is racist driven partisan politics.

  38. WWP

    Dastyari wasn’t only one prepared to take on vested interests
    The Banking Royal Commission did proceed and whatever the criticism, it is exposing bad practices.
    Dastyari stuffed up. Simple as that.

  39. “Dastyari wasn’t only one prepared to take on vested interests
    The Banking Royal Commission did proceed and whatever the criticism, it is exposing bad practices.
    Dastyari stuffed up. Simple as that.”

    You are right he wasn’t the only one. He was one of the more effective ones, one of the ones that could engage the broader public with his silly videos. Yeah he stuffed up but a lot smaller stuff up than lots of those who still there, still riding in ministerial cars. Your simple as that theory doesn’t really explain why he alone has to pay for his stuffup while the rest don’t.

    The better simpler conclusion is that his stuff up has nothing to do with his outcome. His outcome is partisan and racist – simple as that.

  41. WWP

    Dastyari’s own party were pretty pissed with his conduct. Do you recall he went against his own party position on the south China sea and attempted to get TPlibersek not to attend a pro democracy event in Hong Kong.

    You can have your own opinion, but not your own facts

  42. “You can have your own opinion, but not your own facts”

    I didn’t bring any of my own facts and find it odd you’d feel a need to suggest I did.

    And yes I’m prepared to admit that perhaps I’ve understated the potential for internal ALP factional politics to play a role, factions inside the ALP (at least in WA where I’m most familiar, but stories suggest NSW isn’t any better) are ruthless and evil, and they could very well be as much of an insane internal fight. But there are factors, even if some kind of idiotic internal factional war was lining Sam up for destruction, beyond the internal ALP idiocy. Media, LNP and intel factors.

    And yes he did upset his own party, and should probably be on the backbench for that. It was still a targeted hit, but I have no concerns with the outcomes of Round 1 of Get Sam. I don’t really care about Sam, he can still be a funny idiot which was his main value to me.

    I don’t think anyone deserves a place in the senate so the second weird Round 2 of Get Sam (with the same stuff) doesn’t really make me think the outcome is wrong. What is wrong is how and why he, in isolation, got that outcome and others, including Ministers of the Crown, who clearly did much worse things, didn’t even get any heat at all. The best explanation is partisan (with possibly internal ALP partisan stuff) interests focusing racism to achieve a result.

  43. LOL.

    The leaders of isis and Al Qaeda said on Friday that they were totally perplexed as to why Donald J. Trump had not yet invited them to the White House.

    The terror chiefs said that, as sworn enemies of the United States, they had certainly attacked the country enough to warrant an invitation for an official visit, and possibly a state dinner.

    “Maybe we haven’t done anything to directly undermine their democracy—I get that,” Abu Bakr al-Baghdadi, the leader of isis, said. “But we’ve been nemeses of America for years, and that ought to be worth something.”

    https://www.newyorker.com/humor/borowitz-report/leaders-of-isis-and-al-qaeda-puzzled-why-trump-has-not-invited-them-to-white-house

  44. Speaking of the rule of law….article linked to by HH:

    In response to the court challenge, the federal government has moved an uncommon piece of legislation – seeking to retrospectively legitimise Ruddock’s faulty appointment.

    The migration (validation of port appointment) bill 2018, would seek to ensure that Ashmore Reef was a “properly proclaimed port” and that “all things done … which relied on the terms … are valid and effective”.
    :::
    Estrin said the level of retrospectivity in the government’s bill was unprecedented.
    :::
    “Whatever Australians think about asylum seeker policies, we should all be outraged at the government’s willingness to simply patch up 17 years of human rights violations.”
    :::
    “The committee expects that legislation which adversely affects individuals through its retrospective operation should be thoroughly justified in the explanatory memorandum. Such legislation can undermine values associated with the rule of law.”

  45. WWP

    He was put on the backbench. But then the last straw was giving his Chinese agent of influence the heads up that Australian security maybe listening in. Which begs the question, who was Dastyari being loyal to

  47. And if Dastyari was actually a Chinese national and did this in China, his punishment would not simply have been to retire.
    The Chinese do not tolerate disloyalty in any form

  48. There are 3 theories that explain why Trump sucks up to Putin — but which one makes the most sense?

    There are three general theories to explain Trump’s behavior toward Russia (and other hard-right broadly autocratic regimes), and for unknown reasons the two most likely ones are almost entirely absent from our electronic media. The three theories, in ascending order of likelihood, are:

    •The Manchurian Candidate: He’s being blackmailed or has been a Russian asset for years.

    •The Wannabe Dictator: He believes that countries should be run like companies—essentially autocracies

    •The Deadbeat: He’s not only not rich, but he’s badly in debt, and Russian billionaires are among his main creditors.

    https://www.rawstory.com/2018/07/3-theories-explain-trump-sucks-putin-one-makes-sense/

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