BludgerTrack: 52.0 to 48.0 to Labor

More of the same from the BludgerTrack poll aggregate, with the Coalition’s voting intention trend lagging behind Malcolm Turnbull’s personal ratings.

The two new polls this week, from Newspoll and Essential Research, were very slightly at the high end of the Coalition’s form, causing them to nudge up by 0.3% on the BludgerTrack two-party projection. Other than that, the main news in BludgerTrack is that the seat projections are now running off post-redistribution margins (which you can read all about in the post below), and the state data from Ipsos last week has been mixed in to the state calculations. Compared with last week, the Coalition is up one on the national seat projection, making gains in Victoria and Western Australia and dropping one in Queensland. Leadership numbers from Newspoll have added further emphasis to the upturn in his personal ratings, despite the apparently static picture on voting intention.

Full results through the link below.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

951 comments on “BludgerTrack: 52.0 to 48.0 to Labor”

Comments Page 1 of 20
1 2 20
  1. [A major cyber attack on Singapore’s government health database stole the personal information of about 1.5 million people, including Prime Minister Lee Hsien Loong, the government said on Friday.

    The “deliberate, targeted and well-planned,” attack aimed at patients who visited clinics between May 2015 and July 4 this year, the Health Ministry said in a statement.

    “It was not the work of casual hackers or criminal gangs,” the ministry said, adding that the attackers targeted details about Lee and the medicines he received.

    “The attackers specifically and repeatedly targeted Prime Minister Lee Hsien Loong’s personal particulars and information on his outpatient dispensed medicines,” it said.]

    https://www.theage.com.au/business/consumer-affairs/attack-on-singapore-health-database-steals-details-of-1-5m-including-pm-20180720-p4zsre.html

  2. Good Morning Bludgers 🙂

    Yes, it’s very suspicious when the verbose and determined dtt floods the blog, as soon as the modus operandi is determined elsewhere, with the latest Russian disinformation campaign talking points!?!

  3. “Respected coral scientists have documented in peer-reviewed journals that most of the world’s coral reefs will not survive unless the global temperature increase is limited to 1.5°C above pre-industrial levels,” it said.

    However WWF-Australia head of oceans Richard Leck said Australia’s emissions reduction efforts were not even in line with limiting warming to 2°.

    He cited a 2017 report by the United Nations environment program that found Australia’s greenhouse gas emissions were set to far exceed its pledge under the Paris accord. This agreement aims to limit global temperature rises this century to well below 2° and to pursue efforts to limit the increase to 1.5°.

    “It is simply not good enough for the revised plan to suggest the global community must work to limit warming when Australia is not doing its fair share,” Mr Leck said.

    https://www.theage.com.au/politics/federal/australian-governments-concede-great-barrier-reef-headed-for-collapse-20180720-p4zsof.html

  4. C@t

    I gave up reading that crapola being spewed by dtt ages ago.
    I posted on previous thread John Schindler who has a thread on the Kremlin talking points. Worth reading

  5. Counterchekist
    Counterchekist
    @counterchekist
    ·
    6h
    If Putin/Kremlin hates the world order that made him + cronies among the richest on the planet, cut them off from it. Embargo electronics/software sales and financial services. No more use of dollars for trade. No more access to US internet infrastructure. Red Notice oligarchs.

  6. And again Rudy Giuliani puts his foot in it re the Michael Cohen tape.
    He must be working to help Mueller. Nothing else makes sense

  7. And another Putin/Trump talking point that is total crapola

    Rick Wilson
    Rick Wilson
    @TheRickWilson
    ·
    Jul 20
    The desperation caucus is out in force, arguing that holding Trump to account results in civil war or holding Russia to account results in nuclear war.

    Both of these arguments are course of risible, but also quite telling. The feel it closing in now, hard.

  8. Victoria @ #4 Saturday, July 21st, 2018 – 7:17 am

    C@t

    I gave up reading that crapola being sorted by dtt ages ago.
    I posted on previous thread John Schindler who has a thread on the Kremlin talking points. Worth reading

    I never read it but note it’s direction and flavour.

    Call me paranoid, or maybe just sensible, but I wouldn’t be surprised if the Russians have a mole in every popular Western political blog.

  9. lizzie @ #9 Saturday, July 21st, 2018 – 7:32 am

    Victoria

    Tragedy that there are still some people who think Turnbull knows everything and always tells the truth!

    And it really irks me +++ how Turnbull turns on that confidence trickster half smile of sincerity when he says things, such as he is about the ‘African gangs’, which are utterly reprehensible!

  10. A plan to install solar panels on buildings owned by the Shire of Collie in the South West has been torpedoed by councillors worried about the move undermining the town’s coal industry.
    In a flashpoint over the adoption of renewable energy in WA’s coal-mining heartland, the Collie Shire administration had proposed putting solar panels on its buildings in a bid to slash power bills by almost $450,000 over 10 years.

    But councillors concerned about the threat solar poses to traditional coal-fired power generation defeated the motion five votes to two, saying it would have sent the wrong message.

    One councillor, John Piavanini, reportedly said he was “totally opposed” to the shire supporting the solar industry and it should instead be “leading the way and burning more coal”.

    https://thewest.com.au/business/renewable-energy/collie-councillors-bin-solar-panels-savings-plan-for-fear-of-rocking-coal-towns-confidence-ng-b88901329z

  11. Good morning Dawn Patrollers.

    Here we go! Federal investigators have an audio recording in which then-presidential candidate Donald Trump and his personal attorney Michael Cohen discussed in late 2016 making payments for the story of Playboy centrefold Karen McDougal, who allegedly had an extramarital affair with Trump, according to two people familiar with the tape.
    https://www.smh.com.au/world/north-america/michael-cohen-recorded-trump-discussing-payments-to-playboy-model-20180721-p4zsrw.html
    Paul Kelly writes how Trump and Brexit represent existential crises tormenting great democracies. He gives us a lot to think about.
    https://outline.com/zaaXev
    The EU’s chief Brexit negotiator, Michel Barnier, has forensically picked apart Theresa May’s white paper after a meeting of the EU27, warning that the prime minister had failed to offer Brussels a firm basis for the negotiations.
    https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2018/jul/20/france-minister-nathalie-loiseau-brexit-concessions-theresa-may-commons
    Jonathan Freedland says the Brexit ideologues are destroying democracy.
    https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2018/jul/20/will-of-the-people-brexit-democracy-vote-leave
    Hamish McDonald sumps up Trump’s chaotic tour.
    https://outline.com/4rstPS
    Ross Gittins tells us that the jobs market is going not nearly as well as the Turnbull government would like us to believe, but not as bad as its critics claim.
    https://www.smh.com.au/business/the-economy/let-s-put-the-hype-aside-jobs-growth-shifts-from-extraordinary-to-ordinary-20180720-p4zsl6.html
    Paul Bongiorno examines Turnbull’s motives over hic comments on immigration and African gangs.
    https://outline.com/pprgyP
    Paula Matthewson says doesn’t need to be popular for Labor to win.
    https://thenewdaily.com.au/news/national/2018/07/20/bill-shorten-popularity-federal-election/
    At the end of a good article about Trump Laura Tingle suggests that world leaders should hold up a mirror to the US President that reflects on his weakness, rather than his strength, it may give him cause to change his behaviour.
    https://outline.com/z3N7rY
    Mark Ludlow reports that The Coalition will not hold a campaign launch for embattled Longman candidate Trevor Ruthenberg who has been unable to shake off an ongoing fiasco over the military medals he has received. At the same time, concerns are growing about a bigger swing against the Liberal’s Georgina Downer in Mayo in South Australia.
    https://outline.com/RSYuJs
    While the Future Frigate contract is used as a bargaining chip for the upcoming Mayo byelection, the jobs of workers on the project remain in limbo.
    https://outline.com/N52VTf
    Peter Hartcher has a long diatribe on the usefulness, power and danger of unions and manages to squeeze in a “test for Shorten”.
    https://www.smh.com.au/politics/federal/labor-leader-must-stand-up-to-militant-union-demands-20180720-p4zskd.html
    Crispin Hull says Trump is little more than Russia’s puppet.
    https://www.smh.com.au/world/north-america/trump-is-little-more-than-russia-s-puppet-20180719-p4zsco.html
    Following Donald Trump’s extraordinary capitulation to Russia, a Perth father whose three children were killed on MH17 becomes his clearest critic.
    https://outline.com/ud7FZq
    Karen Middleton says that though not exactly declaring coal is good for humanity as Tony Abbott once did, the environment and energy minister is making sure those colleagues know he’s not objecting to sprinkling a little coal dust among the turbines, at least until the wind blows it away for good.
    https://outline.com/tYYykb
    It’s not only Turnbull and Shorten asking the Pope to sack Philip Wilson.
    https://www.theguardian.com/world/2018/jul/20/australias-catholic-priests-urge-pope-to-sack-adelaide-archbishop-philip-wilson
    Patrick Parkinson’s long association with Christian lobby groups and the campaign against marriage equality has been questioned after his appointment as dean of the University of Queensland law school.
    https://outline.com/TEAcDB
    Jess Irvine looks at the health of the property market.
    https://www.smh.com.au/politics/federal/labor-leader-must-stand-up-to-militant-union-demands-20180720-p4zskd.html
    Simon Cowan says that the biggest threat facing Australia is Trump’s trade war.
    https://www.smh.com.au/business/the-economy/trade-war-remains-the-biggest-threat-to-australia-20180719-p4zsgv.html
    And right on cue Trump escalated economic global tensions yesterday, lashing out a range of targets that included the European Union, the Federal Reserve and China, indicating that he is prepared to raise tariffs on Chinese imports from $34bn to cover the entire $505bn of Chinese imports.
    https://www.theguardian.com/business/2018/jul/20/donald-trump-tariffs-all-chinese-imports-threat
    Meanwhile Eryk Bagshaw reports that the former chief economist of the World Bank has warned that Australia should accommodate China’s expansion and tone down its rhetoric or risk missing out on a decade-long economic windfall.
    https://www.smh.com.au/politics/federal/get-on-board-with-china-or-miss-out-former-world-bank-vice-president-warns-20180720-p4zsmh.html
    David Crowe writes that families are set to wait longer to bring in husbands and wives from overseas as the Turnbull government presides over a growing queue for permanent migration, in another sign of its tougher line on population growth.
    https://www.smh.com.au/politics/federal/visa-queues-swell-as-peter-dutton-s-migration-cuts-bite-20180720-p4zsp6.html
    Adele Ferguson reports that In an exquisite irony a law firm that holds itself up as the champion of workers’ rights, and is vocal in its criticism of underpayments at other companies, has underpaid hundreds of former and current part time workers, including university students, almost $1 million. It’s Maurice Blackburn.
    https://www.smh.com.au/business/workplace/maurice-blackburn-s-1-million-pay-muck-up-short-changes-400-staff-20180720-p4zspi.html
    Alex McKinnon writes that the new ACTU president, Michele O’Neil, says her focus will be the globalised economy, but here the attention will be on how she and Sally McManus manage divisions within the union movement over Labor policy.
    https://outline.com/HzxdX2
    Peter van Onselen really goes to town on the “Orwellian” My Health system.
    https://outline.com/ehXspe
    And Julia Powles tells us that the Australian Digital Health Agency’s bullish approach to My Health Record shows it learned no lessons from the UK’s disastrous version
    https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2018/jul/20/there-is-no-social-license-for-my-health-record-australians-should-reject-it
    Since the Government is reluctant to do anything about the problem of low wage growth, Philip Soos suggests ways in which it can be solved.
    https://independentaustralia.net/politics/politics-display/its-time-to-say-goodbye-to-low-wage-growth,11709
    The bosses of the country’s biggest banks are expected to be hauled before the royal commission in November. Sarah Dunckert understands that Commonwealth Bank’s Matt Comyn, ANZ Bank’s Shayne Elliott, Westpac’s Brian Hartzer and National Australia Bank’s Andrew Thorburn will all face questioning at the commission.
    https://www.smh.com.au/business/banking-and-finance/bank-bosses-face-royal-commission-grilling-20180720-p4zsoe.html
    The government’s plan to end automatic life insurance for young superannuation fund members and those with low balances will probably raise premiums for remaining members, the financial regulator says.
    https://www.smh.com.au/business/banking-and-finance/life-insurance-premiums-likely-to-rise-under-government-reforms-apra-20180720-p4zsom.html
    AMP’s misrepresentations to the corporate regulator had no material impact on the company share price, says AMP as it defends five separate class actions.
    https://outline.com/yuLxdP
    Australians are visiting online piracy websites much less frequently, thanks to website-blocking measures enacted by Australian internet service providers (ISPs).
    https://thenewdaily.com.au/life/tech/2018/07/20/digital-piracy-decreasing/
    A new population policy that could keep new migrants in regional Australia is being developed by the government.
    https://outline.com/a3AT8d
    Nicole Hasham reports that the world’s climate change path means the Great Barrier Reef is headed for “collapse” according to a plan endorsed by state and federal governments that critics say turns a blind eye to Australia’s inadequate effort to cut carbon emissions.
    https://www.theage.com.au/politics/federal/australian-governments-concede-great-barrier-reef-headed-for-collapse-20180720-p4zsof.html
    Protesters have clashed with riot and mounted police outside a Melbourne venue hosting far-right Canadian provocateur Lauren Southern.
    https://thenewdaily.com.au/news/state/vic/2018/07/21/wild-scenes-at-far-right-melbourne-event/
    Here’s a definite candidate for “Arsehole of the Week”.
    https://www.smh.com.au/national/nsw/need-to-see-you-at-the-gym-icac-hears-of-texts-calls-between-developer-and-councillors-20180720-p4zsq7.html
    This guy puts in a claim too, RSL National President Robert Dick resigned at the charity’s board meeting on Thursday, amid an investigation into the organisation’s governance and accountability issues.
    https://www.smh.com.au/national/nsw/rsl-national-president-robert-dick-resigns-following-charity-probe-20180720-p4zsql.html

    Cartoon Corner

    David Rowe is fascinated by Trump.
    https://pbs.twimg.com/media/Dih7CYMVsAAG8Xi.jpg
    Mark David cruels Turnbull.
    https://pbs.twimg.com/media/DigxEDsUYAEi4B4.jpg
    Nice work from Peter Broelman.
    https://pbs.twimg.com/media/DiiKaMyVQAA0Hod.jpg
    Paul Zanetti buckets Craig Kelly.
    https://pbs.twimg.com/media/DihD0l6UwAE8JxZ.jpg
    Here’s a couple from Sean Leahy.
    https://pbs.twimg.com/media/Diiiyy-U8AAscOK.jpg
    https://pbs.twimg.com/media/DiiiCQsVQAIi2YS.jpg
    From the US.
    https://pbs.twimg.com/media/Dii-nDuWAAEunx6.jpg
    Big Trev has inspired Jon Kudelka.
    https://pbs.twimg.com/media/DigzlgbVQAEwoWt.jpg
    Kudelka on the development of the potential “Australian values” test.
    https://www.theaustralian.com.au/opinion/cartoons/kudelka-cartoons/image-gallery/6c86336ba162daf8c34d42596589f6db
    Lots of Fairfax cartoons in this.
    https://www.smh.com.au/politics/federal/best-of-fairfax-cartoons-july-21-2018-20180720-h12y9h.html

  12. C@t

    I have no idea who dtt is. Like the rest of us, they are words on a page. Words I don’t waste time reading.
    There is enough disinformation out there. I don’t need to read it on this blog.

    Putin/Kremlin. Trump/GOP and their fellow travellers are a serious problem to the current world order and the apologists can crap on all they like, it doesn’t change that reality

  13. Thanks BK for today’s offerings.
    People will really start getting annoyed with Trump as soon as the economy is seriously impacted.

  14. dtt

    ‘I have never yet seen you apply an objective analysis to anything the US has done, in Iraq, Syria etc. When they interfere in democratic processes of other countries it is OK and you do not comment. You reserve your hatred and censure for Russia. You are an old school anti communist Russia phobe.’

    You do not understand the purpose of my posts to you.

    It is not to engage on foreign affairs – I’m the first to admit it is an area which is of little interest to me (as a policy wonk I tend to focus on areas I can influence, however indirectly).

    It is to question some of your assumptions and prejudices.

    Inevitably, that leads to questioning your attacks on America and your support for Russia.

    There are plenty of posters here,far more knowledgable than I, cheerfully attacking America on a daily basis. I have little to contribute to that discussion except agreement, and – as I said – it’s not an area I’m interested in, so I don’t engage.

    What’s really going on is that you can’t accept questioning – let alone actual criticism. Your default setting – as seen by the screeds of gratuitous insults you dish out – is that you can’t possibly be wrong in any way and therefore the questioner must be morally or mentally defective.

    Your lack of clarity – part born of poor written expression, part due to muddled thinking – is one of the main culprits. People don’t understand you, they therefore question what you’re saying, and instead of clarifying your position, you go the poster.

    And, of course, if it becomes utterly crystal clear that you were wrong, you say you were talking about something else.

  15. Interesting comment by John Schindler:

    John Schindler
    @20committee
    ·
    4h
    NOBODY else does that. Probably only a matter of time before PRC does (they’ve gotten awfully far in Australia), but the Russians are in an intel class by themselves. Yes, US IC tries to covertly influence foreign governments; we do NOT do anything like what RIS did in 2016…/5

    Talking about China’s attempts to infiltrate and influence politics in Australia.

  16. ‘I have never yet seen you apply an objective analysis to anything the US has done, in Iraq, Syria etc. When they interfere in democratic processes of other countries it is OK and you do not comment. You reserve your hatred and censure for Russia. You are an old school anti communist Russia phobe.’

    The answer to that false assumption and assertion is this:

    John Schindler
    @20committee
    ·
    4h
    People who try to equate US IC with RIS inevitably bring up Italy 1947, Iran 1953, Guatemala 1954. Examples not just from the Cold War, but from its early years. IC got out of this seamy business in the 1970s, when the IC got raked over Congressional coals post-Watergate … /6

    John Schindler
    @20committee
    ·
    4h
    For the last 40 years, IC covert action requires a POTUS “finding” + there’s Congressional (HPSCI/SSCI) oversight. This prevents one-offs and kooky ideas from getting executed. Sorry, it’s nothing like the movies, folks. It’s a bureaucratic process like everything else in DC…/7

  17. C@

    Let alone the specious argument that you can’t criticise Russia* unless you also criticise America.

    How about we walk and chew gum, and do both?**

    *which, on reflection, I actually didn’t do – I questioned dtt’s assertion that there had been no Russian heads of state.

    ** and, on reflection, I’ve criticised Trump. Oh, hang on, I see the problem – that’s the same as attacking Russia!

  18. Believing they live in a world of competitive powers, surrounded by threats

    The world DOES have competitive powers, and Russia DOES face external threats. Any further eastwards expansion of NATO would reduce Russia’s capacity to defend itself. In 1990 and 1991 the United States and its European allies assured Mikhail Gorbachev that NATO would not expand eastwards of a reunified Germany; they broke that promise many times. Why would you expect Russia to accept pro-western regimes and potential NATO membership for Ukraine, Georgia, and Moldova in light of that breach of faith? The western powers would never voluntarily accept an equivalent weakening of their strategic position, especially after a series of broken promises by their strategic rivals.

    Russia has been invaded by the Poles, the Swedes, the British, the French (twice), the Turks, the Germans (twice). Understandably they do not want to be vulnerable again, particularly after the western powers acted in bad faith on the issue of NATO’s future after the Cold War.

    Regional powers compete over control of natural resources, access to sea lanes, trade with foreign markets, development of military and industrial technology, the rights of their diasporas, influence over other nations, among other things. The international system IS competitive. That is a basic fact of world politics.

  19. Latest Reachtel has Labor ahead 52-48 in Braddon.

    https://www.news.com.au/national/breaking-news/labor-leads-in-crucial-braddon-byelection/news-story/27cc9450ae05277d3a3105880db4e666

    Meanwhile in Longman the LNP sound a tad desperate:

    THE Turnbull Government has dramatically shifted the debate in the Longman by-election to the Labor leadership, declaring Anthony Albanese is gearing up to challenge Bill Shorten.

    Just days after LNP candidate Trevor Ruthenberg sidetracked his own campaign with false military medal claims, the Government ramped up its attack on Labor’s immigration policies and the “leadership contest (that) has started”.

    https://theworldnews.net/au-news/pm-s-new-line-of-attack-in-longman

    I came across theworldnews.net while searching on a headline in the CM. It picks up articles from the media in several countries.

  20. C@tmomma @ #21 Saturday, July 21st, 2018 – 5:18 am

    ‘I have never yet seen you apply an objective analysis to anything the US has done, in Iraq, Syria etc. When they interfere in democratic processes of other countries it is OK and you do not comment. You reserve your hatred and censure for Russia. You are an old school anti communist Russia phobe.’

    The answer to that false assumption and assertion is this:

    John Schindler
    @20committee
    ·
    4h
    People who try to equate US IC with RIS inevitably bring up Italy 1947, Iran 1953, Guatemala 1954. Examples not just from the Cold War, but from its early years. IC got out of this seamy business in the 1970s, when the IC got raked over Congressional coals post-Watergate … /6

    John Schindler
    @20committee
    ·
    4h
    For the last 40 years, IC covert action requires a POTUS “finding” + there’s Congressional (HPSCI/SSCI) oversight. This prevents one-offs and kooky ideas from getting executed. Sorry, it’s nothing like the movies, folks. It’s a bureaucratic process like everything else in DC…/7

    I don’t see how that answers the question.

    All it says is that the USA’s actions are considered and there is some oversight.

    It doesn’t address questions regarding the validity of those actions.

    Also, I do love the “logic” of dtt’s last sentence.

    You hated the communist USSR, so you hate dictatorial Russia.

    Whereas,

    She loved the communist USSR, so she loves dictatorial Russia. 🙂

  21. A new poll shows Labor is ahead of the Liberals in the Tasmanian seat of Braddon, just a week out from a by-election.

    Labor’s Justine Keay is on 52 per cent of the two-party preferred vote, despite polling 34.3 per cent of the primary vote.

    The Liberals’ Brett Whiteley is polling 40.7 per cent of the primary vote.

    Labor is expected to benefit from preferences from the Greens’ Jarrod Edwards, who holds 6.7 per cent of the primary vote, while controversial independent Craig Garland is polling 8.9 per cent.

    More than two-thirds of voters said they would preference Labor above the Liberals.

    The ReachTEL poll, commissioned by the Australian Forest Products Association, found 70 per cent of voters would be more likely to back a party or candidate “with policies that support north-west Tasmania’s forest industries”.

    As well, 76.6 per cent of voters believed forest industries were important for the local economy and 65.3 per cent thought there should be a native forest timber industry for producing products such as decks and furniture.

    AFPA chief Ross Hampton said the poll of more than 800 Braddon voters showed the by-election was on a knife-edge and the future of the forest industry would be a key issue.

  22. Nicholas

    ‘Russia has been invaded by the Poles, the Swedes, the British, the French (twice), the Turks, the Germans (twice)’

    You could do a list like this for every country in Europe. Not every country in Europe behaves like Russia.

  23. I wonder if There will be a Brexit redux

    Channel 4 News
    @Channel4News
    Exclusive: Court documents claim new Arron Banks links with Russia.

    Read the full story:

    Exclusive: Court documents claim new Arron Banks links with Russia
    channel4.com
    4:00 AM

  24. Russia is not vulnerable

    Your assurance that Russian won’t be invaded again is worth as much as the west’s assurances in 1990 and 1991 that NATO would never expand further east than a reunified Germany.

    Russia are lucky indeed to have you point out their national interests for them. I didn’t realize that foreign policy was as simple as that.

  25. From the Daily ToiletPaper…

    THE Turnbull government claims its dreams of pulling off a rare by-election victory next weekend are distant, arguing that Labor has gained ground in the knife-edge seats of Braddon in Tasmania and Longman in Queensland.

    A senior Liberal strategist said the polling was much tighter in Braddon and that while the LNP was still competitive in Longman, Labor would have to be considered in the box seat.

    “We’ll throw everything at this in the next week but my assessment is we’re behind in both,” the strategist said.

    “We’re not conceding defeat, we’re still fighting.”

    A Sky/Reachtel poll released at the beginning of the campaign showed the Coalition leading Labor 52-48 per cent in Longman and 54-46 per cent in the Tasmanian seat of Braddon on a two-party preferred basis.

    Other Liberal insiders told The Saturday Telegraph internal polling had never been as favourable as early published polls “which got everyone excited”.

    “The government never had internals that Braddon was a sure thing. A lot of people got caught up on initial (published) polls,” the Liberal source said.

  26. Nicholas @ #37 Saturday, July 21st, 2018 – 5:42 am

    Russia is not vulnerable

    Your assurance that Russian won’t be invaded again is worth as much as the west’s assurances in 1990 and 1991 that NATO would never expand further east than a reunified Germany.

    Russia are lucky indeed to have you point out their national interests for them. I didn’t realize that foreign policy was as simple as that.

    How does the voluntary expansion of a group of countries equate with an invasion?

  27. Barney IDG

    No. They could have held out, but they didn’t. Call it naivety or stupidity. Whichever, Dastyari stuffed up

  28. Under a rules based system a landlocked, or limited sea access country can negotiate with its neighbors for access to the sea for trade and even military purposes

    A rules-based system would be nice to have, if everyone (including western powers) were truly committed to developing fair rules and processes and adhering to them consistently. But to understand how states behave now, you have to know that world politics is a long way from being a rules-based system. Under a rules-based system, the agreement reached in 1990 and 1991 between the western powers and the Soviet Union that NATO would not expand east of a reunified Germany would have been followed rather than broken.

  29. Trump has cracked the sads that Michael Cohen has tape of him discussing paying off woman he had affair with.
    There was a period of time when I imagined Trump being taken away to a medical facility due to having a freak out.
    If more comes to light, this could indeed become a reality

  30. I wouldn’t be surprised if the ‘Labor’s going to win Braddon & Longman’ Daily Turdburgler story is aimed at vote suppression ….

    Cue conspiracy theory alarmists! 😆

  31. Vic, I still think Trump should have asked Putin for asylum … but I suppose he’d need to get his family out first?

  32. Victoria @ #41 Saturday, July 21st, 2018 – 5:47 am

    Barney IDG

    No. They could have held out, but they didn’t. Call it naivety or stupidity. Whichever, Dastyari stuffed up

    Of course they could have held out but then every time he stood up in the Senate or made a statement in public the Government would have attacked with “Shanghai Sam”.

    As I said he had become an unwanted distraction and his effectiveness in Parliament had been compromised.

  33. Neither were failed states.

    Georgia and Ukraine are weak states because they were designed that way by Stalin, who settled large Russian minorities in the Soviet republic states. In Ukraine the people of Crimea and in Georgia the people of South Ossetia and Abkhazia are overwhelmingly Russian. That’s why it was relatively easy for Russia to occupy those regions. The people who lived there did not identify with a state that exists on paper but does not actually have legitimacy and exercise authority in those regions.

  34. Jenauthor

    He should have. Cos Trump and his fellow travellers are in for a bumpy ride. Although it means the rest of the world is going to as well.
    Sigh………

Comments Page 1 of 20
1 2 20

Leave a Reply

Your email address will not be published. Required fields are marked *