BludgerTrack: 52.0 to 48.0 to Labor

More of the same from the BludgerTrack poll aggregate, with the Coalition’s voting intention trend lagging behind Malcolm Turnbull’s personal ratings.

The two new polls this week, from Newspoll and Essential Research, were very slightly at the high end of the Coalition’s form, causing them to nudge up by 0.3% on the BludgerTrack two-party projection. Other than that, the main news in BludgerTrack is that the seat projections are now running off post-redistribution margins (which you can read all about in the post below), and the state data from Ipsos last week has been mixed in to the state calculations. Compared with last week, the Coalition is up one on the national seat projection, making gains in Victoria and Western Australia and dropping one in Queensland. Leadership numbers from Newspoll have added further emphasis to the upturn in his personal ratings, despite the apparently static picture on voting intention.

Full results through the link below.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

951 comments on “BludgerTrack: 52.0 to 48.0 to Labor”

Comments Page 2 of 20
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  1. Barney IDG

    Because Dastyari did not have a reasonable defence.
    This was not just partisan politics
    Nat sec was involved.
    As I said whether stupidity or naivety, Dastyari was compromised

  2. Fess

    Well he most likely facilitated getting Snowden to Russia, so he could have gotten himself there if he really wanted to go. Obviously he had other plans

  3. Victoria says: Saturday, July 21, 2018 at 8:53 am

    Trump has cracked the sads that Michael Cohen has tape of him discussing paying off woman he had affair with.
    There was a period of time when I imagined Trump being taken away to a medical facility due to having a freak out.
    If more comes to light, this could indeed become a reality

    ***************************************************************

    Here you go Victoria – Trump in his padded cell

  5. During the Obama Administration a group of 25 people in the executive branch would meet once a week to decide whom to kill with drones. This is a sterling example of the “rules-based international system” in action:

    Kareem now had no doubt he was on America’s infamous “Kill List.” Most Americans don’t even know we have such a thing. We do. Officially, it goes by the ghoulish bureaucratic euphemism “Disposition Matrix.”

    Seemingly conceived in the Obama years, the lethal list – about which little is known outside a few leaks and court pleadings – appears to sort people into targeting for capture, interrogation, or assassination by drone. It was run by a star-chamber of two-dozen security officials and the president. According to a 2012 New York Times report, they met once a week to decide which targets around the world lived or died.

    These meetings became known as “Terror Tuesdays.”

    As Obama was preparing to leave office, candidate Donald Trump was promising to jack up the number of bombings in the Middle East. “You have to take out their families,” he said.

    It’s one of the few promises he’s fulfilled. Reports vary, but some estimate that Trump has upped the pace of drone attacks by about four or five times the Obama rate, which itself was 10 times the rate of Bush.

    https://www.rollingstone.com/politics/politics-features/how-to-survive-americas-kill-list-699334/

  6. Meanwhile in Longman the LNP sound a tad desperate:

    No worries. They’ve got Turnbull up there campaigning for them now. What could possibly go wrong?

  9. Kolya, you ate posting direct copies from last night. Once is enough.

    It is a new day and I don’t have time for a rerun of old roundabouts. let it go, let it go, be at one with the wind and sky….

    I am off to watch kids play sport on a cold and wet winters morning.

  10. Barney IDG

    Dastyari is no longer a senator. Granted partisan politics was played, but he stuffed up. you can call bullshit all you like. do you seriously think if there was nothing to it, Labor would have cut Dastyari loose?

  11. Re Braddon: The Libs would have had a much strong chance if they had gone with a younger, fresher candidate, rather than the oft-recycled Whiteley, who has underwhelmed at both the state and Federal levels, and who doesn’t even live in the electorate nowadays.

    I still think it will be pretty close: opinion polls in Tasmania always tend to overstate the left vote a little, especially the Greens’ vote.

    The choice of candidate in Longman has also been demonstrably a problem. I think that the poor choice of candidates in both by-elections, and arguably for Mayo as well, demonstrates that the Liberal Party is being slowly sunk by its increasingly conservative, ageing and out of touch membership base. Some sort of realignment or split seems to me to be inevitable: the party’s major business supporters in Sydney and Melbourne, who (I’ve been told) always found Abbott difficult to stomach, won’t have a bar of the Mormons and other fringe types who appear to be steadily gaining control of the party.

  12. Much needed and much welcomed rain this morning. That would be rain as opposed to the usual showers we get.

    #weatheronPB

  13. phoenixRed

    Trump could end up in a facility for the criminally insane! dont know what colour that garb is. Dont think it is orange. Most likely light blue or white. whichever, would love to see him depart the scene sooner than later.

  14. Attorney Avenatti offers to represent Michael Cohen if he spills the beans on Trump and turns ‘state’s evidence’

    Could Stormy Daniels and Michael Cohen end up with the same attorney?

    It seems improbable given the possible conflicts of interest in the ongoing matters involving President Trump’s personal attorney and the porn star he paid-off after conducting one of his affairs, but Michael Avenatti said it was possible in an appearance on MSNBC on Friday night.

    Avenatti told host Ari Melber that he recently ran into Cohen at a restaurant in New York and that the men chatted.

    “I’m not going to say ‘no’ as it relates to potentially representing Michael Cohen,” he said. “If he was prepared to do the right thing and come clean and basically turn state’s evidence, I would absolutely consider it in an effort to disclose information and bring the truth to the American people.”

    https://www.rawstory.com/2018/07/watch-attorney-avenatti-offers-represent-michael-cohen-spills-beans-trump-turns-states-evidence/

  15. “How does the voluntary expansion of a group of countries equate with an invasion?”

    Maybe they believe in the Domino Theory.

  17. Trump supporters’ China-made MAGA hats are being held up by US customs — thanks to the president’s tariffs

    Trump supporters eager to get their hands on Trump-themed shirts and hats may have to wait more than they normally would have — and it’s all thanks to the president’s tariffs.

    Business Insider points to a report from Chinese publication Global Times claiming that Chinese textile manufacturers that produce Trump gear are having greater trouble getting their goods into the United States thanks to the current trade war between the U.S. and China.

    https://www.rawstory.com/2018/07/trump-supporters-china-made-maga-hats-held-us-customs-thanks-presidents-tariffs/

  18. Victoria,

    Yesterday you said Labor doesn’t want Garrett.

    Last night Sprocket posted:
    https://www.pollbludger.net/2018/07/17/essential-research-51-49-labor-3/comment-page-41/#comment-2836327

    Mr Shorten, the Opposition Leader, who yesterday revealed he would be staying in his seat of Maribyrnong and not moving to Fraser, has made it clear he wants Ms Garrett accommodated.

    I asked why is it important for Shorten to accommodate Garrett.

    No responses have been forthcoming. Can you shed any light on the matter?

  19. Victoria says: Saturday, July 21, 2018 at 9:20 am

    phoenixRed

    now Avenatti going into bat for Cohen could most definitely send the Trumpster over the edge!!

    ************************************************

    I am still laughing about it – hero or villain – I would want to have Avenatti represent me in a court 🙂

  20. “I’m not going to say ‘no’ as it relates to potentially representing Michael Cohen,” he said. “If he was prepared to do the right thing and come clean and basically turn state’s evidence, I would absolutely consider it in an effort to disclose information and bring the truth to the American people.”

    Are people still doubting Cohen will flip?

  21. zoomster @ #18 Saturday, July 21st, 2018 – 7:58 am

    dtt

    ‘I have never yet seen you apply an objective analysis to anything the US has done, in Iraq, Syria etc. When they interfere in democratic processes of other countries it is OK and you do not comment. You reserve your hatred and censure for Russia. You are an old school anti communist Russia phobe.’

    You do not understand the purpose of my posts to you.

    It is not to engage on foreign affairs – I’m the first to admit it is an area which is of little interest to me (as a policy wonk I tend to focus on areas I can influence, however indirectly).

    It is to question some of your assumptions and prejudices.

    Inevitably, that leads to questioning your attacks on America and your support for Russia.

    There are plenty of posters here,far more knowledgable than I, cheerfully attacking America on a daily basis. I have little to contribute to that discussion except agreement, and – as I said – it’s not an area I’m interested in, so I don’t engage.

    What’s really going on is that you can’t accept questioning – let alone actual criticism. Your default setting – as seen by the screeds of gratuitous insults you dish out – is that you can’t possibly be wrong in any way and therefore the questioner must be morally or mentally defective.

    Your lack of clarity – part born of poor written expression, part due to muddled thinking – is one of the main culprits. People don’t understand you, they therefore question what you’re saying, and instead of clarifying your position, you go the poster.

    And, of course, if it becomes utterly crystal clear that you were wrong, you say you were talking about something else.

    Well Zoomster

    Pots and kettles

    What a load of palaver.

    Thankyou for fully confirming my comment. Much appreciated.

    If you do not engage in discussing foreign affairs why do you. You intervene only on ONE side of the argument. which was of course my whole point. You never, ever take a position of criticising USA or Saudi or Israel or even Australia on a foreign affairs issue but are an enthusiastic fan the flames of war person re Russia.

    You are a totally biased Russiaphobe but lack either the wit or honesty to admit it.

    I make no pretense where I lie. I grew up in a household with a dad who was very left leaning and pro Russia,. Strongly socialist. I make no apologies for largely sharing his world view. I am a solid socialist and believe that assisting the ordinary people is what is right. That does NOT mean I support totalitarianism. For most of the 20th Century Russia stood for that world view albeit seriously flawed in man, many ways. I share my views with great left leaders/figures in Labor history. Evatt obviously, Jim Cairns and I am pretty sure also Curtin (but I would need to check that one).

    Oddly enough my mother came from a very conservative middle class background but she also hated the USA, largely because her family thought he US a bunch of bullying philistines. This was they typical middle class pro UK view that was common enough in Australia until the 1950s at least.

    So I can freely acknowledge my biases. I do not deny they exist, but I still make some effort to be objective.
    You on the other hand do not even acknowledge your biases. Yes I know your parents hail from tjhe Baltic. You grew up nturally with a hatred of Russia. I understand that. I give you due allowance for it, but for heavens sake admit your biases and at least try a smidgen of objectivity.

    No as fro going the poster. What a laugh. Zoomster you go after me just about every single post, usually with some sily (and wrong) nit picnicking. Have you NO self awareness.

    Thankyou for the compliment. I now understand that my arguments are too complex for you. They appear too complex for you I understand that. I once had an English teacher who chucked a King Lear essay at me with an A+. Her comment was “I could not follow your complex reasoning but I know there was an argument in there”. She at least was honest. Alan Fels once did something similar.

  22. Dastyari is an illustration of the principle that politicians who live by being media tarts are always at risk of being torn down by the media when they start to become a better story than the messages they have been so engagingly selling.

    Barnaby is another instance.

    But these bouncy types of political spruikers have a tendency eventually to spring back into the limelight: look at Richo, who has had more revivals than Grease the Musical.

  24. Pegasus

    Jane Garrett’s intentions are good. she is a hard worker, but I dont appreciate her style, and many within Labor dont like her style either. Obviously Shorten thinks she is worth having on team Labor.

  25. For weeks I have been waiting for the CPG to write a story on what pressure might be placed on Malcolm’s leadership if they fail to regain the blue ribbon seat of Mayo. Instead they concentrate on Longman a seat rarely won by Labor and helped last time by PHON preference get against sitting members and want to comment on Bill Shorten. If Bludger Tracker is anywhere near right Labor could at a GE lose both Longman and Braddon and still have a comfortable majority.

  26. #WeatheronPB. Another in a long run of clear sunny days, cold mornings, mild, sometimes warm afternoons. The rain tap’s been turned off.

  28. Victoria @ #60 Saturday, July 21st, 2018 – 6:15 am

    Barney IDG

    Dastyari is no longer a senator. Granted partisan politics was played, but he stuffed up. you can call bullshit all you like. do you seriously think if there was nothing to it, Labor would have cut Dastyari loose?

    Of course they would and did.

    They let it go through to the keeper once but then it popped up again on basically nothing new after a Government leak of ASIO info.

    The media and the Government wouldn’t let it go and it was taking focus off the Government at a time of near daily stuff ups.

    If it was a national security issue, where was the investigation into the ASIO leaks and Sam’s spying activities?

    Politics 101, no more.

  29. http://www.abc.net.au/news/2018-07-21/how-the-word-terrorism-is-used-and-misused-across-the-globe/9862124

    While the designation of some groups may seem straightforward — like Islamic State who openly embrace the use of terror with increasingly macabre executions and calls for global jihad — the labelling of others have political motivations not linked to national security.

    “Defining a group as a terrorist organisation is an intrinsically political act,” said Charles Lister, the Middle East Institute’s director of extremism and counterterrorism, told the ABC.

    This had made finding a universally agreed on definition of terrorism a task that had eluded the UN for decades, he said.
    ::::
    Violence and intimidation are by no means tactics reserved for radicalised groups.

    While political insurgencies act outside of local law, violent tactics used by many governments across the globe violate international law.
    :::
    In lieu of a clear criteria to define a terrorist group, the label has become a way of listing not only threats to national security, but also as a way of forging political alliances.

  31. Victoria,

    Thank you for your response. Why does Shorten think she is worth having on his team when Andrews obviously doesn’t think so?

  32. Barney IDG

    Chinese influence in our politics is not a partisan issue. It is a real and present problem. You can dismiss it all you like. I get that the fact Dastyari was vocal on the banks etc. but guess what the Banking Royal Commission proceeded with or without him being in the senate. And those I am connected to within the banking industry have said that the banks have scrambled to clean up their acts. So despite it feeling like this Royal Commission is a toothless tiger, it is having a serious impact on our vulture banks.

  34. Pegasus

    just an observation on my part. I dont have any facts, but there appears to be personal dislike of each other. Andrews doesnt like her style and she doesnt like his. I could be wrong.

  35. Confessions says: Saturday, July 21, 2018 at 9:25 am

    Allan SmithVerified account@akarl_smith

    Legal experts say they’ve never heard of a lawyer secretly recording their client as Cohen did to Trump.

    “Either something wasn’t kosher or he was afraid that he was going to be out a bunch of money.”

    ***************************************************

    I think ‘self protection’ in case Trump threatened to send a few of his Mob Buddies to pay him a visit ….

  36. fess

    the FBI and Mueller have bucketloads of evidence after the raid on Cohen. The court was appointed to glean all the evidence to ascertain what parts were privileged. The majority of stuff were not which means they have so much information against Trump and his fellow travellers. Cohen is going to do what is right for him and his family. Trump is done.

  37. Dueling pork barreling.

    https://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/2018/jul/21/labor-and-coalition-pledge-450m-in-spending-for-three-byelection-seats

    Labor and the Coalition have splurged a total of $450m in promises to three key seats facing byelections on 28 July.

    With Bill Shorten desperate to hold key marginals Longman in Queensland and Braddon in Tasmania, Labor has unleashed $320m in promised spending in the seats.

    The Coalition has pledged $130m in the campaign to recapture the seats off Labor and to regain Mayo in South Australia from Centre Alliance’s Rebekha Sharkie.

  38. Pegasus: “I asked why is it important for Shorten to accommodate Garrett. No respon ses have been forthcoming. Can you shed any light on the matter?”

    I can give you a non-Labor perspective on what happened.

    From where I sit, Garrett came out of her contretemps with Andrews and the UFU with the moral high ground . Whenever I have suggested this, several of the more committed Labor types on PB have told me I’ve gotten it completely wrong, and that all the blame should rest with her.

    However, regardless of the rights and wrongs of the issue, I strongly suspect a majority of the public share my perspective on the matter: the CFA is seen as an icon, whereas the UFU came across as thuggish militant unionists.

    A Garrett who appears to be abandoned and ostracised by her party serves as a living reminder of the unpleasantness of a couple of years back. A Garrett who is happily ensconced in some sort of parliamentary seat will disappear into the background.

    I can’t think of strong enough pejoratives to use to describe the people within the Labor and union movements who are currently trying to keep this battle going.

  39. dtt

    ‘If you do not engage in discussing foreign affairs why do you.’

    Read my post. I explain this.

    ‘ You intervene only on ONE side of the argument.’

    Read my post. I explain this (and it is also incorrect).

    ‘ Zoomster you go after me just about every single post, usually with some sily (and wrong) nit picnicking.’

    Yes. I’m about the only poster left here who pays you the compliment of taking you even a little seriously. Most of the others think you’re a complete joke and either scroll by or don’t engage.

    If you want to alienate the only audience you have left, go for it.

  40. pegasus

    another thing I should add is that Jane Garrett had ambition to lead the party. So Andrews probably sees her as a rival.

  41. phoenixRed, Vic:

    Yes it was pretty clear Cohen was going to put his interests first when he remarked that his family was his no. 1 priority not the president.

  42. If I was involved with the IPA I would be a bit miffed that Gina could only find a couple of million a year out of her estimated 17 billion fortune to promote her favourite cause.

    Is she a true believer or not? Turnbull donated nearly that much to his own election campaign.

  43. Anyone else have any opinions why Shorten is so keen to accommodate Garrett other than for reasons of liking or disliking her?

  44. spot on

    Counterchekist
    ‏

    @counterchekist
    28m28 minutes ago
    More Counterchekist Retweeted Donald J. Trump
    Stay focused, patriots. Don’t jump down the #provokatsiya rabbit hole. tRUmp desperately needs to change the subject and sow division. Don’t let him. Treason > everything else.Counterchekist added,
    Donald J. Trump
    Verified account

    @realDonaldTrump
    The NFL National Anthem Debate is alive and well again – can’t believe it! Isn’t it in contract that players must stand at attention, hand on heart? The $40,000,000 Commissioner must now make a stand. First time kneeling, out for game. Second time kneeling, out for season/no pay!

  45. dtt

    ‘Her comment was “I could not follow your complex reasoning but I know there was an argument in there”’

    Oh, yes – that’s a common error, mistaking an inability to follow an argument with complexity.

    My father used to say, “If you can’t convince them, confuse them” – in other words, if you know your argument’s weak, go for complexity.

    I don’t think you do it on purpose, however.

  46. Victoria says: Saturday, July 21, 2018 at 9:35 am
    fess

    the FBI and Mueller have bucketloads of evidence after the raid on Cohen. The court was appointed to glean all the evidence to ascertain what parts were privileged. The majority of stuff were not which means they have so much information against Trump and his fellow travellers. Cohen is going to do what is right for him and his family. Trump is done.

    ***********************************************

    Add in that the Paul Manafort trial is being held on July the 24th to add petrol on the Trump dumpster fire

  47. On the Health database. Craig Kelly:

    “The experts support it, and we have to listen to the experts.”

    Wish they’d do the same on Climate Change and coal.

  50. Cohen certainly had his fingers in a lot of pies.

    The other key question is how this plays into the payment McDougal did get from the Enquirer’s publisher, American Media Inc. Given the Enquirer is run by Trump ally David Pecker, it has long been alleged and suspected that Pecker was doing Trump a favor by buying McDougal’s story and then not running it — a practice known as “catch and kill.” The practical effect was basically the same as Cohen paying Daniels: The woman alleging the affair was not allowed to go public with her claim. And we know, based on The Post’s reporting last month, that Cohen was given a heads-up about stories the Enquirer was going to run on Trump. It suggested a very cozy relationship.

    https://www.washingtonpost.com/news/the-fix/wp/2018/07/20/2-troubling-questions-for-trump-in-light-of-the-new-michael-cohen-tape-revelation/?utm_term=.cf491b6cbbd0

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