The Australian has today brought us its quarterly Newspoll breakdowns, whereby three months of polling is condensed into results broken down for the five mainland states, so as to provide such numbers from reliable sample sizes. That much at least was predictable, but we also have today the same exercise from Ipsos courtesy of the Fairfax papers, which is a first. This is because Ipsos poll samples have been pared back from 1400 to 1200, presumably for reasons of cost, and the pollster no longer cares to publish state breakdowns from such small sub-samples, and has thus gone down the Newspoll path of aggregating them on a quarterly basis.
The Australian provides comprehensive Newspoll tables if you’re a subscriber (also featuring breakdowns by gender, three age cohorts and mainland state capitals versus the rest), but all we’ve got from Fairfax so far as I can see is two-party results (more detail may follow in due course). In New South Wales, Newspoll has Labor leading 52-48, while Ipsos has 53-47 (there’s an error in the Fin Review graphic, but that’s what it is); in Victoria, it’s 53-47 from Newspoll, and no less than 56-44 from Ipsos (which is most of the reason Ipsos’s results have been better for Labor lately than Newspoll’s); in Queensland, it’s 53-47 from Newspoll, 52-48 from Ipsos; in Western Australia, Newspoll has it at 50-50, while Ipsos unusually has the Coalition up 53-47; and in South Australia, Newspoll has Labor up 51-49, while Ipsos has it at 52-48 (the latter is inclusive of the Northern Territory, although that shouldn’t matter much – ditto for Newspoll rolling the Australian Capital Territory into New South Wales).
All of which should put BludgerTrack on a firmer footing for its update later this week, despite the likelihood that there will be no new national poll. Also out today is a ReachTEL state poll from Victoria, which is covered in the post below.
mikehilliard @ #349 Monday, July 9th, 2018 – 7:29 pm
I hope so!
Ven @ #350 Monday, July 9th, 2018 – 7:34 pm
Ven @ #350 Monday, July 9th, 2018 – 7:34 pm
You do know that the most threatening thing you can say to a fellow ALP Member is “mate”!
Ven, apart from me and one or two others, you wouldn’t know if any PBers are your mates, enemies, or people you’ve never met in real life!
July 2004: Female patient, clearly delusional. Says she dreams Mark Latham quits the ALP, has Alan Jones as his bestie, loves Donald Trump, wants ABC abolished and campaigns for One Nation.
Will increase her medication.
Cripes, that diet worked well, GG!
Steve777
Just knew you was a secret LNP Supporter and you agree with very thing I have been saying about our great LNP and coalition
Corby and Tess
https://twitter.com/EL4JC/status/1016259136126889984
Robo Mark Latham has cybersized himself in to a total dickhead!
Evening all. I have only just caught up with all the news. At first I was disgusted to see Mark Latham now robocalling for Pauline Hanson. Then my thoughts turned to delight at the realisation that it must be lousy polling as reported in this thread driving them to do it.
https://www.theage.com.au/politics/federal/mark-latham-does-robocalls-for-pauline-hanson-in-longman-byelection-campaign-20180709-p4zqfs.html
I think this also explains why Georgina Downer tagged along with Mal on his recent Adelaide visit but said nothing. She knows she is gone. Expect a vitriolic anti-Labor tirade by Newscorpse “journos” very soon.
GG
Snap! Where did you get that stock photo of Latham?
Socrates @ #361 Monday, July 9th, 2018 – 8:04 pm
I think it is from his time in Parliament!
And doesn’t Pauline have form attracting great guys!
http://www.abc.net.au/news/2018-07-09/sean-black-trial-begins-on-rape-charges/9958930
Another boy has been rescued from the Thai caves!
The LNP is the Queensland chapter of the Right-Far Right alliance, the political wing of Big Money merged with the rural socialists. Here is NSW the “Liberals” and Nationals are still separate parties, with the Nationals getting about half the votes of the Greens. I find L/NP a convenient abbreviation.
People who believe their interests align with those of the big banks, big developers, the miners, the big private health funds, the real estate industry and the tax avoidance industry should vote “Liberal”. Many people who are socially conservative vote L/NP. Others vote because they hate brown people arriving in boats, or because they hate unions, and end up voting to dismantle Medicare and massively hike tertiary education fees for their kids.
People need to know what they’re voting for, they need to understand the whole package. The L/NP and their media allies are masters of distraction.
Sydney to Malcolm. Over!
Turnbull at the Queensland LNP conference today: “We are the party of aspiration, of enterprise. Labor has become a party of envy, negativity, pessimism and grievance.”
A 5th boy has been rescued in Thailand.
Great news about the cave boys thanks GG. No criticism of the rescuers but the more I have read of the story, the more I have to conclude that boys and coach were fools to go so far inside. This is their wet season. The rain was not a surprise.
Barney@7:01pm
GG@7:37pm and Fulvio@7:47pm
I do not know whether any of you watched Sienfeld TV sitcom. I will assume you saw them and discuss a Sienfeld episode
In one of the episodes Jerry tells that when you were a kid & alone and some other kid asks you whether you want to play with him/her. You would say yes and start playing with that kid and develop friendship. You do not start thinking what kind of person is that kid or will you get hurt if you play with him.
In Shorten case if that person goes and becomes IPA chief it is not Shorten’s fault. You cannot control the lives of your friends
We do not have condemn Latham and Hanson by association. We can do that even without association because both are terrible human beings individually.
Don’t know that Mark Latham would be a big help to Pauline Hanson. She’s scraping the bottom of the barrel there. At least Pauline was thrown out of her old party, the “Liberals”. She didn’t rat on them.
Steve777 @ #369 Monday, July 9th, 2018 – 5:16 pm
Actually compared to her usual associates Latham is probably a huge improvement. 🙂
Socrates @ #368 Monday, July 9th, 2018 – 8:15 pm
I’m sure the entrails will come out over time. I’m just mesmerised by the story and thankful the boys have emerged so far. I pray that the others can be rescued too!
Ven
Given Hanson’s numerous appalling comments on the public record, and shameless appeals to racism, I think criticising her and those who associate with her is quite valid, and need not be based on personality.
GG
Yes true, the rescue effort does show some of the best of human nature in evidence.
“Labor has become a party of envy, negativity, pessimism and grievance.”
Obviously a bit of projection going on there. The “Liberals” are the Party of fear and grievance, of ‘political correctness’. They are the ones who cultivate moral panic on boats, jihadis and lately ‘African gangs’ for political advantage. They dogwhistle to racists. They cultivate ‘downwards envy’ of people supposedly living the life of Riley on the dole or disability benefits. They are the ones who identify and demonise class enemies: the unemployed, asylum seekers, the ABC, the unions, climate scientists, left-leaning (or not right wing enough) community leaders and spokespeople.
Australia under Howard, Abbott and whats’isname has become a smaller, meaner country. Of course we’re pessimistic. I might become an optimist if Labor could get a steady 54+ in the polls.
Steve777, I like your thoughts as the basis of an election campaign slogan:
“If you believe your interests align best with the big banks, big developers, the miners, the big private health funds, the real estate industry or the tax industry with a society of growing inequality you should consider voting LNP.
If you believe your interests best align with a healthy, educated, well employed community where equality of opportunity is a policy outcome not a slogan, vote Labor.”
GG
If you’re still there. How much effect do you think Latham’s attack on Shorten is likely to have in Longman?
Stephen Mccredie @ #376 Monday, July 9th, 2018 – 8:30 pm
Show us you’re tax cuts!
Socrates
Agreed. Aussie doctor/diver, poms finding them Thai navy seals and of course the Thai volunteer who paid the ultimate price. Showing people are people rather than borders on maps. Sadly normal transmission will be resumed ‘5 minutes’ after the operation.
Re how far they went. When they went in The Wet had not officially started and from reports they only ended up as far as they did because they retreated from rising water levels. Apparently their original destination is part of a local ‘rite of passage’ where they go and write their names on a particular cave wall. So it was not some random crazy idea.
Darn @ #377 Monday, July 9th, 2018 – 8:33 pm
One quarter of three fifths of bugger all.
Ppeople already know who they are voting for. By-elections usually go against the incumbent Government. Some speculation about ON preferences. But, a safe win to Labor is my prediction.
Turnbull … “We are the party of aspiration, of enterprise.”… same old same old 22 years after Howard uttered the same rubbish, give the LNP another 100 years a they will still be “We are the party of aspiration, of enterprise.” and delivering nothing
PS Turnbull looks older than Howard these days.
Thanks GG. Your judgement on political matters is usually pretty close to the mark.
Stephen Mccredie“…If you believe your interests best align with a healthy, educated, well employed community where equality of opportunity is a policy outcome not a slogan, vote Labor.”
I believe that Labor should include something like this in its campaigning. However, because, unlike the L/NP, Labor doesn’t have big media allies to attack its class enemies, it needs to campaign positively. Maybe the unions could do the first part about the big banks. The Greens, who don’t need to attract the centre, could also go into attack mode if they could go after the common enemy, the environment and climate vandals, not Labor.
Darn
I agree with GG. Labor voters would despise Latham by now. Greens would laugh or cry. Centrist voters would not enthuse over Hanson’s politics. That leaves the far right voters as the only people they are appealing too. So Latham might split some votes off the LNP. It is just One Leader trying to stay relevant in the media cycle.
Depends what your aspirations are Mal. To be a user of notorious tax havens and defender of corporate peasants like HIH or doing something to make life better for people. Or maybe the aspiring to be PM and wrecking one of the most important infrastructure projects to keep that aspiration alive ?
“Turnbull looks older than Howard these days.”
Tomorrow is John Howard’s 79th birthday. Malcolm turns 64 in October, the age at which Howard said he would consider retiring. Howard was that age in 2003.
EDIT: it’s noticeable how leaders seem to age rapidly under the strain if office, especially American Presidents. Somehow, I think that Donald Trump will prove immune.
EDIT2: I made a serious blooper, confusing Saint Gough’s Birthday with Howard’s. Gough would have been 102 tomorrow, Howard turns 79 in a couple of weeks. Should check before I post.
Steve777
i think in the US it is a case of while being a challenger it is Grecian 2000 all round to look the young vigorous challenger. Having got there out with the Grecian 2000 and in with looking like the greying wise old man.
Whilst I am not a huge fan of SHY on this occaision I wish her fund raising and her case well. Given that right wingers love financial solutions for everything, even her antagonist should be delighted. SHY has proposed a good cause for any payout too.
http://www.abc.net.au/news/2018-07-09/hanson-young-crowdfunding-leyonhjelm-defamation-action/9960540
By adverising that you won’t keep (and by extension therefore don’t need) any damages awarded to you, does it not indicate that you have suffered no damage which requires to be compensated, and therefore any damages award would be punitive rather than compensatory?
When a senator needs to crowd fund a defamation case it shows how badly the court system is broken and how it is really only justice for the rich, most of us can’t afford to pay to start the fight for justice let alone be sure of getting to a just result.
In this case a just result would be for her to get the money equivalent of every second of free publicity the filthy scum has sucked out of this new low in Australian politics.
Cat owning is the new political frontier!
I don’t think damages have ever been awarded on an ‘as needed’ basis.
Fulvio Sammut @ #389 Monday, July 9th, 2018 – 9:00 pm
Or, that we’ve moved from aggrieved insult to publicity hunting?
The Liberal Party:-
“One man’s pay rise is another man’s job”
Then we are told the cure to all ills is to get a job (but don’t then ask for a pay rise) and that if you want to buy a house get a better job (but don’t then ask for a pay rise – if you can find a job which pays more in the first place)
Because despite where interest rates have been for over 10 years and 4 years of no wages growth business needs tax relief to survive
Yay! Another boy out!
Socrates @ 8.03pm
“I think this also explains why Georgina Downer tagged along with Mal on his recent Adelaide visit but said nothing. She knows she is gone. Expect a vitriolic anti-Labor tirade by Newscorpse “journos” very soon.”
If NewCorp wants to help Ms Downer, the last thing they should do is campaign against the ALP. They actually need the ALP to outpoll Ms Sharkie, so the latter’s preferences could go, potentially, to Ms Downer. If the ALP candidate is excluded before Ms Sharkie, his preferences could well elect her.
Steve777 @ 8.46pm
“Gough would have been 102 tomorrow”.
Not according to the 1973 and 1978 Parliamentary Handbooks, which listed his birthday as 11 July, not 10 July.
Pedant @ #397 Monday, July 9th, 2018 – 9:11 pm
Maybe he was such a long baby that his arrival breached the midnight time frame!
Some thoughts on why the Thai cave rescue is getting so much attention: http://www.abc.net.au/news/2018-07-09/thai-cave-rescue-why-do-we-care-so-much/9958564